!!! "# $
% &# '( &
)*# *& + , - , . -
/ 0 -,, '
1 2 & 3 , - . , / 0 , .
, 1 1 . , 4
, & 5 ' , 1 1 /
/ &
67#8)6+8& 8 ,
1 / 9 / . ' .
, & 8 /, 9 9 ' .
1 1 . , 9 5 & 5 9
, 1 . / .&
:8# +3*#; / < / < < , 4 &
=*>?:)@#; / .< / .< 5 &
!
" # "
$
% & "
' () *+ $ , " -
' " . , /01
0 2 344/// 344/// 4* 344/// / /
" " 56 ,789 " :
; & $
6 (<81
, ; %
5(2*=>9 5?' @09 $ !
" " & "
A B A B1
" & A B A - B
A B1 " & A B
A B1 *
! : : : : &A B
: : A B1 &A B1
C
% "
' - - #
" D * "
E ,
0 0 " "
0 8 ' () , 0 F
: : "
" , 8
:
"
?
" "
$
!
( ! "
G " 56 ,789
:
" " H
- " "
$ &0 I@@ 880 ! 1 $
5$,*>J9 "
"
8 2 344 4 344/// 4 4
: " ; & "
" 1 , "
;
( 5(?,J89 " :
" ?
: 6 * ,?+( & " 1 :
(6 ?+) & " 1 K IL@
& ; 1
" "
" $ "
:
" " "
C '(M*$ &08 >=I =I ! 1 + # N O
$ 5+?P7L9 *
"
" "
" "
" ; ,
" : " "
" "
;
" " "
: :
, #
' () "
$ C 5C,? @89
E
Q E
G
& $,*RF1
' () * "
"
F 2 344 4
, ' () & '
( ) 1
" R+?'$ (&
1 M?($?,& 1
, $,*R
8@@8 5M*) @F9 0I= >==
E " ' () & " "
01 $ &
S?CT1 & S)T1 $ A B
00@ L8= & JI U1 M
" S6 $T $
"
' () ,
SV.T S Q$T
S Q$'QT ?6 -@@@@@0 S4 Q$'QT
S?CT * C < / " &
1 C <
S4?CT
S6 $T ( ? R $ S46 $T
SV.T ( R M < S4V.T S4 Q$T
W S Q$T
S Q$'QT ?6 -@@@@@I S4 Q$'QT
S)T , S4)T
S?CT ?
"
- 3
3 ; X X
S4?CT
S6 $T M * 6 S46 $T
SV.T * * : , N S4V.T
S4 Q$T W
;*/ , / 1 1 . , - #8
, ' () 0JF 7I>
S+*$Q+ T & 81 $ "
E & S)*+6 R+T1 & S)+? *' T1 F>
! & " A 070@-078@ B
81 IL F@@ " E
& " A ? B1 * 8= F=J
! & " 8 "
" A C B
1 (
0IL L8F & 0JF 7I> - F> Y 8= F=J1
S+*$Q+ T S+*$Q+ T
S)*+6 R+T ? : S)*+6 R+T , M
S)+? *' T ( ? : S)+? *' T M
W W
S+*$Q+ T S+*$Q+ T
S)*+6 R+T C S)*+6 R+T M
S)+? *' T M S)+? *' T Q
S+*$Q+ T S(Z'QR+*T $
S)*+6 R+T C W
S)+? *' T M S+*$Q+ T
WS)*+6 R+T MQ()* *)+?2? ,
S+*$Q+ T S)+? *' T . Q+V ()?) Q'
S)*+6 R+T S+*$Q+ T
S)+? *' T ( S)*+6 R+T M
WS)+? *' T . N (
S+*$Q+ T S+*$Q+ T
S)*+6 R+T $ S)*+6 R+T M
S)+? *' T R S)+? *' T / N
S(Z'QR+*T M S(Z'QR+*T M
W W
S+*$Q+ T S+*$Q+ T
S)*+6 R+T < S)*+6 R+T ?
S)+? *' T $ N & 1 S)+? *' T ?
S(Z'QR+*T M S?K)QMT R
W W
S+*$Q+ T S+*$Q+ T
S)*+6 R+T 070@-078@ S)*+6 R+T $
S)+? *' T 070@-078@ S)+? *' T
W S(Z'QR+*T ' 8$QF
;A / , - - #8
* ' ()
: 8> 0LI S(Z'QR+*T &
: : 0= U 1 8= =@0 S?K)QMT & "
8@ U 1 0 7FJ S2?K((T &A 2
B 0 F U 1 , S?K)QMT
" 8
A ? B # A R B *
' ()
( )+*$
! - - & SR-) ),*T
F1 & SR-
*($T1 "
& SR-'?++T1 , 8L !
' () : !
# :
S)QMT
S'K6T @@0 S4'K6T
SR-) ),*T S4R-) ),*T
SR- *($T M G
* &'Q[ (Q8 $Q $Q8 H 1
S4R- *($T
SR-'?++T $ " 6
+ $ " + )
G , S4R-'?++T
S4)QMT W S)QMT
S'K6T @@7 S4'K6T
SR-) ),*T + " "S4R-) ),*T
SR- *($T "
"
S4R- *($T
SR-'?++T $ $ + +
$ S4R-'?++T
S4)QMT W
;*/ , B , #8
\
0 $ 0I= >== " :
0@I > & " 1 (
" &
A6 $ O V. B1 : F0 8
0L E $
: &0 I01
$
*+ $ & 08 1 6 , & 0@ 08
1 5Q'*=09 ; "
& A) O ?CB1 : JF I
! "
, " "
' () #
?
! "
" ' () 8>
" " 0
' ()
) & 6 C1 07L 6 C
0I= >==
! 8L
8 @0=
: 4 ! =@ J8
' "
6 $OV. ) O?C
I0F 8>8 0FI J80 F=@ 7J@
: 0@I > F0 8 JF I
- : LI 0 0I J I= >
70 8= L=
" ;A #8
, # "
" * ] O " 5]K' >79
" !
$ 5$,*=I9 R 5RK+ =J9
G :
#
( O V 5(?+ ==9 "
! !
F@ U >F U
?6 -@@@@@0 ?6 -@@@@@I
) R ) R
C <
0=
7 7 J
>
>
8F 0=
0=
0L 08 08
" ;3 , , , , C,
" ' () : "
: # # "
* "
# " ' () "
; , " 8 F
, 8 8>
A B
A B A C < B A B A B
M
A B
A B A B
A B
& "
A B A B1 "
: M " A B %
" " " !
A B # A B
S6 $ ' ()T (
S6 $ ' 7T C < / C
<
S6 $ ' >T (
S6 $ ' 0T ( C < /
S6 $ ' =T
C S6 $ ' ()T M
S6 $ ' LT M 0
S6 $ ' 8FT 6
" ;*/ , / , , , D , /
, F S6 $ ' ()T - "
' () :
$
" ' () &
" 1
' ()
"
"
$ "
"
5$QQ >79 ?
: " #
M $ 8>
" ' () $
& S6 $ ' =T F1 G
* "
$ ' ()
? " E
- & I>F 1
I " 8>
" &A- B A- B " 1 ?
G " "
" 8 0 , 8 8
"
# $ % %
? !
5(?2 @F9 5$<*@I9
5 *,@I9
QN 5+QC @@9 ,
"
&
A ^ ! ^ B A - B1
M
" & 1 &
! 1 &A - B1 ?
"
& ^ & 4 1
" 1
0 A - B
@ L _ @ L `5 4 " 9& A B1
I 344/// 4 4 4
&
A B A B A B1
*
, !
" C N :
5CK$ 7>9& A , B1 ( 5( ' 779& A B1
' QN 5+QC @@9
&
$
: )+*$-*2?,
)+*$ ')$ + $,*R 5C+? @F9
$ :
: ?
:
5(?2 7J9
: <@ " :
:
( : ! # &
L U1
"
' ()
& S)T S?CT1 " M
"
S6 $T SV.T * " ' ()
" " & A
B1 * ! & I1 :
& L1 : "
& " A - B1 (
"
" "
# & "
A - B
1 * QN #
" & A B1 &
1
M : &U 1
+ ! ) ) ) )
"
QN - !"#" $#%&&-8@ JU1 !#"!&-F> FU1 &-07 JU1 , - FI J7 8L =0&-8L =U1 88 JI&-FI >U1 &-00 7U1 - FL @0 87 00&-0> 7U1 8F F8&-FF IU1 &-07 7U1 - F0 =8 8= L0&-0@ IU1 8F =7&-8I 7U1 &-0> 8U1 - F0 J= 8> I@&-0> 7U1 8@ I8&-FL JU1 &-88 JU1 - 8> =I 80 >>&-07 FU1 0> JJ&-FJ LU1 &-88 >U1 - 8L =L 8@ 7@&-07 0U1 0J I8&-F8 >U1 &-0> JU1 - 80 LL 0J L=&-0= IU1 0> @I&-8L >U1 &-= =U1 - 80 @F 88 J0&_= @U1 00 87&-I> FU1 &-L@ FU1 - = 77 = >F&-0I 0U1 L 08&-IF @U1 &-I@ JU1
-0I IU -FL @U -88 7U
" '; ' 1 /
" B 1 ,E58 83*F G , B $
M : &U 1
+ ! ) ) ) )
"
QN - '&#'' !"#!&-07 =U1 $#$"&-FL LU1 &-07 LU1
, - IF @J F8 0J&-8L FU1 8= 88&-FI LU1 &-08 FU1
- I8 07 FL J>&-0L 8U1 8= 0>&-FF FU1 &-80 FU1 - F7 @7 F8 87&-0J IU1 8J 8F&-F@ FU1 &-0L JU1 - F7 >@ F8 7@&-0> 7U1 8I L=&-FJ 7U1 &-8L FU1 - FJ F@ 87 87&-80 LU1 8> 08&-F@ @U1 &-0@ =U1 - FF L7 8> >8&-8@ =U1 8I II&-8J 8U1 &-= 8U1
- 8= >8 8I 0>&-0L >U1 80 LL&-8I JU1 &-0@ =U1
- 8@ 0J 07 =@&-0 =U1 00 J0&-I0 7U1 &-I@ 7U1
- 0F L7 00 @@&-07 0U1 J F7&-IL >U1 &-F8 =U1
-07 0 U -IL > U -F8 = U
" (; ' 1 /
" B 1 , , HIC , B $
( " " &
I L1
" # :
' # $
M " I & !
1 : QN 87 L> "
8F JF "
07 J U $ : ! ! 0L
8L "
: M " !
"
M &U 1
+ !
M a "
)
& 1
) )
M : FJ 8J 87 L> 8F JF
M L >= @ U L7 8 U&-08 7 U1 L= I U&-0I 0 U1
M 0@ >> @ U LI = U&-0J @ U1 L8 = U&-8@ @ U1
M 8@ >@ @ U I= > U&-07 @ U1 IL I U&-8I F U1
" ); 1 , 0 I H! ! ":J ,$
$ :
> L 0@
8@ QN $
" " !
) 5(M @09 ? " "
: > > C
" L I=
L 8= "
" - #
" "
" :
" "
& L I= > > 1 ! "
"
& L I= L 8= " "
1 * - # H "
D ,
&
" , G5,?' =091
, " M "
" "
-#
#
! (
*
&0I= >== 8L ! 1
" & 1
; ?
! & : F J ! 1 :
&0L > 1 " :
" " &
I L1 M
$ 5+?P7L9 *
L 0@ 8@ " & >1
" "
, : "
QN
"
( "
" "
" ? !
"
5?' @09
" ; &
1 "
E " "
+
$ R
& @8@-0@FI8@401
' )
5?' @09 ? P M G-$ P X) " 3 /
:G " X M O
6 FJ 8 8@@0 8F0-8LI
5C,? @89 C $ X) X
M O 6 F= 8 8@@8 8JF-870
5C+? @F9 C 6 M $ X$,*R 8@@8 : X ?
$ -, + ,'$( b8J=L ( -2 C 8@@F
L0@-L8L
5CK$ 7>9 C N : $ ( ? 6 6 ( X' /
(6 ?+)X M )+*$-I ' () M bL@@-8F> &6 1
077> 8L-I=
5$<*@I9 $ PM X6 X ,
: < M 8@@I 0@L-0F=
5$,*>J9 $ $ . X) $ " X ?
M 07 07>J 0JF-078
5$,*=I9 $ $ . XQ G -
X ( O K I 07=I FJ-IJ
5$QQ >79 $ . ( X " : DX ?
8@ F 8>=-8J=
5RK+ =J9R , ) V G ,6 () X) :
- : X $ ?$6 F@ 00 07=J
7>I-7J0
5,?' =09 , G + * X) /
: X P
FJ 07=0 0FI-0IL
5 *,@I9 , : $ $ * X(+ X , :
< M 8@@I 0F7-0>0
56 ,789 6 P, X6 # : X
M O 6 8= F 0778 I@J-IF0
5Q'*=09 Q ' *) ? + X, : $ # Q$,$
X , : + O ) ( 8L 0 07=0
>F-=@
5M*) @F9 M $ C 6 G P V N 6 X? $ -,
+ X ,'$(b8J=L ( -2 C 8@@F
5+?P7L9 + # N ) C $ . C X$ "
X P ? ( :
( I> I 077L 8J8-8=F
5+QC @@9 + (* . N ( C 6 X*" / : 3
QN )+*$X M O 6 F> 0 8@@@ 7L-0@=
5(?,J89 ( X? / / " &6 * ,?+(1
" &(6 ?+)1X P ? ( :
( 8F 8 07J8 JL-=I
5(?+ ==9 ( ) V M $ ? Z ) X? :
N C N :X P ?
( : ( F7 F 07== 0>0-0J>
5(?2 7J9 ( : P X( X
M O 6 FF I 077J I7L-L08
5(?2 @F9 ( : P X6 X ?
< M 8@@F F0->7
5( ' 779 ( ? $ P < , / M R &07771 ?)O) )+*$-
JX M )+*$-J ' () M bL@@-8I8 &6 1 0777 8F7-
8L0
5(M @09 ( N ? . P 6 C P ( ) X( / 3)
X P ? ( : (
) : L8 F 8@@0 88>-8FI
5(2*=>9 ( * XK / X
P ? ( : ( FJ L 07=> FF0-FI@
5]K' >79 ] M " 6 * X " : :X ?
8@ F 07>7 8L7-8>J
* +
/ # ^ 0 / # ^ #
/ # ^ 5 & #1 _ 09 # / # ^ @ L+@ L⋅ #
" ⋅ # / # ^ 55 & #1 _09_09 # / # ^ #⋅
(
− #)
#
, / # ^
0+ & #1
& 1 _ 0
&0− 1⋅ + ⋅
QN / # ^
(
&N0+01⋅ #)
V+ #
( )
/ # ^ & #1+0
& N1+0
( )
8N=0
/ # ^ #⋅ # N⋅ N
( )
8N=0 / #^
ln ln(tf
(
ij)+1)
+1[ ]
⋅idfj(1−slope)⋅pivot+slope⋅nti
/ # ^
(
& #1+0)
⋅ #& N1+0
( )
⋅ N( )
8N=0
/ # ^
ln ln(tf
(
ij)+1)
+1[ ]
⋅idfjln ln(tf
(
ik)+1)
+1( )
⋅idfk[ ]
2k=1 t
, * 5 ,
-
" #
)# # " )#
# & # ^ & 4 #11
& " 1
" ,
" 3 ^ 8@@ 1^ @ L JH^ 0 L , ^ F@ , ^ @ 8