Les indices composites sont-ils de bonnes mesures de la compétitivité des pays ?

HAL Id: hal-00745413

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00745413v2

Preprint submitted on 26 Oct 2012

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Les indices composites sont-ils de bonnes mesures de la

compétitivité des pays ?

Raphaël Chiappini

To cite this version:

Raphaël Chiappini. Les indices composites sont-ils de bonnes mesures de la compétitivité des pays ?. 2012. �hal-00745413v2�

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1.

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Les indicateurs composites de compétitivité globale : une similarité affichée ...9

7

1.1

7

Construction des indices...10

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1.1.1.

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Méthode de construction du WCY ...10

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1.1.2. Méthode de construction du GCI ...11

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1.2. Deux indices très similaires ...13

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1.2.1. Une forte similarité dans leur construction ...13

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1.2.2. Des classements fortement corrélés ...14

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2.

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Les indicateurs composites de compétitivité plus spécialisés...16

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2.1

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Présentation des différents indicateurs ...16

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2.1.1. Les indicateurs d’environnement des affaires...16

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2.1.2. Les indicateurs de compétitivité fiscale (Bénassy-Quéré et alii, 2003) ...17

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2.1.3. Les indicateurs d’attractivité ...19

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2.1.4. Les indicateurs d’image des pays ...21

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2.1.5. Les autres indicateurs composites ...23

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3.

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Quels liens existe-t-il entre les classements de ces différents indicateurs ? ...25

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4.

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Des indicateurs soumis aux mêmes critiques...28

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4.1. Pas de fondements théoriques ou empiriques du choix des variables et des

pondérations ...29

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4.2. Qualité des variables retenues et problème d’interprétation ...32

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Conclusion ...34

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5FE59)B*52 ...36

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Tableau 1

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Résultats des tests de corrélation entre les classements du WCY et le GCI en

2007 et 2008 ………...……….15

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Tableau 2

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Les douze piliers de la compétitivité selon le World Economic Forum (WEF) .40

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Tableau 3

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Liste des variables qualitatives communes (WCY et GCI) ...41

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1.1

Construction des indices

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11

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BCBCCA356EA6EA852F34783952A67A 1A

7

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12

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B7 98F87 *7 $2*+7 *#7 7 3969*7 !6+2A7 627 213+99)9+7 %B#A7 32;*87 -#97 *A7 #&1H1*7 +329*7A79*7!22#*"7B*7%AA+*7#969*+*7%2A*76272A*#29A7%#798F7*A7A*#97A1269*+*7 *#7 #A7 +24667 %7 7 G7 M7 2!9A7 %7 3#)97 6*7 269A7 *#7 6*7 +*#62*7 %7 6BA-#H7 %B39A9A"7 B7 3#2A27%7242-#722+973+*A76739%*7%727%A9F7%2A*7673969"727&1367 6*79A*9#9A*73#$69-#*73+*AA7M7V7%#7319739697FA*9#9A7-#976#91H173+*A77 V7%2A*767*#*9A%927!A%21A2#&876#91H173+*A2A7#A739%*7%2A*76B9A%92798F"7B739%*7%*7 %#X73969*77%*79*7*#*9A%92*7%2A*76B9A%922#7!9A267)27%+3A%7%#732;*72A2A+"7DA7!!87 6*732;*7*A7262**+*7A79*722+9*7A7!A29A7%76#7%#97FA+9#7.#7?F.@732742$92A77 6*732;*73**+%2A7#A7F. H79A!+9#7G77%662*7*A72A*9%++*72117+2A7G7627319F7 +237 %97 %*7 I7!A%21A2#&7J87 6*7 32;*7 3**+%2A7 #A7 F. 42$92A7 2139*7 A7 57 7 E7 %662*7 *A7 2A*9%++7 2117 +2A7 G7 627 *2A%7 +237 %97 I7%B!!92229+7J7 7 6*7 32;*7 2;2A7 #A7 F. 42$92A7*#3+9#7G7M77%662*7*A72A*9%++*721172;2A729A7627%A9F7+237%97 I7%B9AA)29A7J"7#76*732;*7*7*9#2A7A72*7+23*8796*7*A7%9*7I7A72A*99A7J776*739%*7 26*7 2!!2+*7 G7 2422#A7 %*7 9*7 !22#*7 242AA7 A7 !A29A7 %7 6#7 %+)6331A"7 C#7 !9A2687 6B9A%922#798F72A9A7557)292$6*7-#2A929)*77M77)292$6*7-#26929)*73#7#A7267%77 )292$6*739**7A72137?'7)292$6*7*A7213+*7%2A*7%#&73969*7%9!!+A*@"7



13

1.2. Deux indices très similaires

BCCBCA!2EA543EAF99493A62FAE74A852F34783952A 7 <#7%B2$%872117%973+2+%11A8727*A7%#&79A%922#*7213*9*71*#2A7627 213+99)9+7 2C73F27%*732;*772$#9**2A7*#7#A7262**1A7%*732;*7A7!A29A7%#7I7*27J7 $A#7G72422#A7%*7!22#*7%7213+99)9+"7 LA73#721327#7%B2$%876*7%+213*99A*7629)*72#&7%#&79A%922#*87A76B27)#7 29%**#*87 67 8U7 *7 %9)9*+7 A7 -#27 !22#*7 ?3!12A27 +2A19-#87 !!92229+7 %#7 *2#7 3#$69-#87 !!92229+7 %*7 A39**7 7 9A!2*#2#@7 26*7 -#7 67 98F7 *7 6#97 %+213*+7 A7 57 !22#*7?!A%21A2#&87!!92229+779AA)29A77!22#*7*3+29!9-#*@"7C#7A9)2#7%72*7!22#*7 A7 3#7 %+PG7 A)97 #A7 229A7 *919629+87 327 &1367 A7 6*7 !22#*7 !!92229+7 %*7 A39**7 7 !!92229+7 %#7 *2#7 3#$69-#7 %#7 8U7 7 67 !22#7 !!92229+7 %#7 98F"7 ,29*7 67 36#*7 9132A7*7%7*2)97*976*7%#&72A9*1*7#969*A7%*7)292$6*7%9!!+A*73#76272A*#29A7 %76#*79A%92*"7<#7%B2$%87A#*73#)A*712-#7-#76B9A%922#78U73*7*#7#A7A1$7 36#*7+6)+7%7)292$6*7-#76B9A%927%#7DE"7DA7!!87967+#%97'729F*7%A757*A7-#2A929!*7 7 7 *A7 -#26929!*"7 C#7 2A2987 67 98F7 3*7 *#7 7 29F*7 %A7 *#61A7 557 *A7 -#2A929!*7 67 *7 +2A7 %*7 )292$6*7 -#26929)*7 ?M7@"7 C7 39987 6B9A%927 %+)633+7 327 6BF,47 *1$6736#*7+A%#7-#76798F87A211A72#7A9)2#7%*729F*7-#2A929!*739*7A72137%2A*7 *272A*#29A"7DA7#876B9A%92798F7*1$6736#*7$2*+7*#7%*729F*7-#26929!*87-#973+*AA7 A)9A7 6*7  57 %7 6B9A%9287 26*7 -#7 6B9A%922#7 8U7 *7 36#*7 +-#969$+7 3#9*-#B967 2137 3*-#7 2#2A7%7)292$6*7-#2A929)*7-#7%7)292$6*7-#26929)*"7

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14

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(A72A*27*91962973#7+261A7H7!2972A2A2A76*7)292$6*7-#26929)*"7DA7!!87 $9A7 -#7 6*7 A-#H*7 *9A7 1A+*7 %9!!+11A7 7 *#7 %*7 32A6*7 %9*9A2*87 66*7 2A2AA7 *#)A7 6*7 1H1*7 29F*77 -#269+7 %*7 9A!2*#2#*7 ?#9F*87 2+9AA*87 !)929*@87 2#39A872131A7+49-#7%*7!91*72Y7

E9A261A876272A*#29A7%*7%#&79A%922#*7%9!!F7**A9661A7%2A*767291A7 %*7 )292$6*7 *#*P22A*87 2B*G%97 6*7 39%*7 2**29+*7 G7 242-#7 )292$687 7 %2A*7 6B+62$29A7 %*7 A-#H*7 *#7 6*-#66*7 *7 $2*A7 6*7 )292$6*7 -#26929)*"7 F67 !2#7 A87 23A%2A87 -#7 6B9A%922#7%76BF,47A6$7#A7A1$736#*7+6)+*7%7)292$6*8727-#973#767A%736#*73+29*7 129*7 27 -#97 67 *#17 +261A7 G7 %*7 3$6F1*7 %7 1#69269A+29+7 A7 **7 )292$6*7 !A%292*"7

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5

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FE241 3ECC347234C23C3472489EC596426C24E2348E332A26C34742%#42C4E243%426445564 2C445574

Spearman

Kendall

rhô

p-value

Tau-a

Tau-b

p-value

2007

0,8783

0,000

0,6953

0,6953

0,000

2008

0,8766

0,000

0,6741

0,6741

0,000

:#277F,487DE872262#6*7%76B2##7

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16

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ADEFA926983E74FA855F93EFA6EA85393993A7FA

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2.1

Présentation des différents indicateurs

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7

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7

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30

233*7 %7 6BF,47 7 %#7 DE7 9A%9-#A7 -#7 627 *+629A7 %*7 )292$6*7 +*#6A7 %7 A1$#&7 **7 *29*9-#*77 -#7 67 249&7 %*7 3A%+29A*7 23369-#+*7 G7 2422#A7 %BA66*7 *7 67 +*#627 %7 2*7 **"783A%2A872#2#A7)+9!9229A71399-#7AB*7!!2#+73272*72A9*1*73#72A!9176#7 249&7%73A%+29A727-#97691976B9A3+29A7-#73#)A7!2976*7#)A1A*7%72*79A%92*"7 BBF,47 273+7 3#7 #A7 3A%+29A7 !9&87 %2A*7 62-#667 6B9A%922#7 8U7*7 %9)9*+7 A7 7 *#*!22#*7 -#97 *A7 2422#A7 3A%++*7 7 V87 7 287 9A%+3A%211A7 %#7 A1$7 %7 )292$6*7 213*2A7 67 *#* !22#7A7-#*9A"783A%2A872#2#A7P#*9!9229A7AB*7233+72A2A2A727249&7%73A%+29A7 76BF,47A7+)F6732*7 AA736#*76*73A%+29A*72**29+*7G7 242-#7)292$67213*2A76*7 %9!!+A*7 !22#*"7 811A7 P#*9!97 67 !297 -#7 6*7 !22#*7 I79A!2*#2#7 %7 $2*7J7 7 I79A!2*#2#7 *29A9!9-#7J729A7671H1739%*73#7%*732;*7261A7%9!!+A*7b7C9A*9873#7#A732;*7A7)97%7 %+)6331A7211767/AX#62876*7 9A!2*#2#*7%7$2*72#A7#A7 39%*736#*7 9132A7 3#7 21+697 6#7 29**2A27 +2A19-#7 -#7 3#7 #A7 32;*7 $2#2#37 36#*7 2)2A2+7 2117 627 E2A27 #7 6BC6612A"7 811A7 +261A7 &369-#7 -#7 6B+%#229A7 297 67 1H17 39%*7 -#7 627 3699-#7 !9*2267 %2A*7 6B9A%922#7b7 F67 AB;7 27 32*7 %7 P#*9!9229A7 1399-#7 %7 2*7 249&"7 47 36#*87 #A7 3A%+29A7 %9!!+A7 A7 %*7 #3*7 %7 32;*7 %9*9A2*7 31297 %7 3A%7 A7 2137 6*7 %9!!+A2*7 %7 A9)2#7%7%+)6331A7%*732;*"78A2A2A76B9A%927B3E32EE87.7782X*7?M@71AA7 -#7 229A*7 9A%92*7 3296*7 )9A7 6#*7 213*2A*7 3A%++*7 %7 12A9F7 9%A9-#87 26*7 -#7 %B2#*7A7%*7+6+1A*7%A76B9132A27*712P+877287*2A*72#2#A7P#*9!9229A74+9-#7#7 1399-#7>767249&7%*73A%+29A*7*7%A2876G72#**9872$929"7BB&1367-#B#969*A7.7782X*7 ?M@7 *7 26#97 %7 6B9A%927 32967 I7%9!!92#6+7 %7 692A297J7 9A26#*7 %2A*7 67 3*7 I71$2#247 %*7 2)2966#*7J"7 86#9297 213A%7 77 +6+1A*7 32197 6*-#6*7 %#&7 )292$6*E7*A7 *#3A%++*7 327 23372#&72#*87*2A*7-#72627*97P#*9!9+7%712A9F74+9-#7#71399-#"7

E

7I7B*7*#!!29!*7*A7P+*7211719!7)262$67%7692A291A7J77I76B136;#7%97$A976B2#9*29A7 %B#A792732973#73#)97692A297#A7*2629+7A7*#!!29!7J"7

31

C#7 2A297 %#7 8U87 6B233247 %#7 DE7 27 6B2)2A27 %7 29*AA7 2)27 %*7 3A%+29A*7 )292$6*7 A7 !A29A7 %#7 %+)6331A7 %*7 32;*7 2A*9%++*"7 B*7 3A%+29A*7 2**29+*7 G7 242-#7 !22#7)29A7A7!A29A7%#7F.732742$92A7%#732;*72A*9%++"783A%2A87671%7%73A%+29A7G7 6B9A+9#7%7242-#739697*7+261A7)9)1A7299-#+"7DA7!!87#721173#7678U872#2#A7 P#*9!9229A7 1399-#7 AB*7 233+7 3#7 P#*9!97 627 3A%+29A7 %*7 )292$6*87 A211A7 G7 6B9A+9#7 %7 242-#7 3969"7 B7 1%7 %7 3A%+29A7 *7 26*7 249*97 %7 !2\A7 26+2987 7 #A7 242A1A7%2A*76273A%+29A7%7242-#7396973#72$#97G7%*7262**1A*7261A7%9!!+A*"7 DA7!!879+977,2#67?5@87A7#969*2A7#A72A26;*7G73297%B#A71%F67%72A)A277A7 1%9!92A7 6*7 3A%+29A*7 33*+*7 327 67 DE87 2$#9**A7 G7 %*7 262**1A*7 %9!!+A*7 7 AB+2A7 -#7 !29$61A7 2+6+*7 2#7 262**1A7 33*+7 327 67 DE"7 87 +#%7 P#*9!97 627 !29$67 3+7 +2A1+9-#7 %7 2*7 9A%922#*7 213*9*7 %7213+99)9+7 6$26"7 B*72A26#*9A*7 *A7 *919629*7 2A2A2A76B9A%927B3E32EE"7DA7!!87673#)97&369229!7%*7)292$6*7%76B9A%92*7+261A7 19*7A722#*"7DA7!!87A74+977*6A76*73*#62*7%7%+327%#7B3E32EE87967*76+9917%7 *B2A%7 G7 #A7 !7 2+629A7 A7 6B9A%927 I7!22969+7 G7 !297 %*7 2!!29*7J7 7 %*7 )292$6*7 122+2A19-#*766*7-#762729**2A27+2A19-#7?$P29!73197%*7233*7B3E32EE@7 #7 627 29**2A27 %*7 9A)*9**1A*7 %92*7 +2A*7 ?F4D@"7 L87 %2A*7 627 329-#7 6*7 +*#62*7 *A7 %+2)2A*"7 C9A*987 .62A247 ?6@7 %2A*7 *A7 2A26;*7 &36297 1A7 -#7 6B9A%927 %7 627 I7!22969+7 G7 !297 %*7 2!!29*7J7 AB27 2#2#A7 !!7 *#7 627 )2929A7 %#7 F.7 7 #A7 !!7 129A267 *#7 67 2#&7 %BF4D"7 8*7 +*#62*7*A72A!91+*7327,+A2%774#7,229*7?7@7-#972P#A7-#76B9A%927%#7B3E32EE7AB27 +261A7 -#B#A7 F*7 !29$67 !!7 *#7 6B9A)*9**1A7 3#$6927 7 39)+7 ?E.8E@"7 E9A261A87 627 *#67 +-#29A7 *9A9!9229)7 *7 2667 2A2A2A7 67 69A7 A7 6B9A%927 B3 E32EE7 7 6BF4Z7 ?,+A2%7 74#7 ,229*87 7@"7 ,H17 6*7 **7 +269*+*7 327 67 B3 E32EE7 A7 *A7 32*7 2A26#2A*"7 42A*7 6#*7 +-#29A*7*2A76769A7A76B9A%927%7I7!22969+7G7!297%*72!!29*7J7762729**2A27%#7F.874P2A)7

32

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4.2. Qualité des variables retenues et problème d’interprétation 7

47 327 6#7 2A*#29A7 3*2A7 G7 627 !9*7 *#7 %*7 )292$6*7 -#2A929)*7 7 -#26929)*87 6*7 9A%92*7213*9*7*A7*#19*7G7%7A1$#**7299-#*"7DA736#*7%#73$6F17%71#69269A+29+769+7G7 627 %A%2A27 %*7 )292$6*7 !A%292*87 9+977,2#67 ?5@7 2A26;*A7 +261A7 67 2#*7 2#&7 )292$6*7 -#26929)*7 %2A*7 6B+62$29A7 %7 6B9A%927 98F"7 .9A7 -#7 67 DE7 2!!917 -#7 6*7 -#*9A*7 3*+*72#&7A39**7*A7*2A*721$9#c+876*7+3A**7*A7*#$P29)*77%+3A%A7%#7%+7%7 2AA29**2A27 %*7 A39**7 *A%+*7 *#7 6*7 A39**7 %*7 2#*7 32;*7 7 6#7 A)9AA1A"7 8*7 2##*7 1AA7 -#7 *97 627 !917 *A%+7 *7 1#69A29A267 7 F*7 #)7 *#7 6B&+9#87 2*7 9A!129A*7 *A7 *#33*+*7 H7 %7 $AA7 -#269+"7 C#7 2A2987 *97 627 !917 9A+7 *7 622687 6*7 2AA29**2A2*7 -#B667 27 %7 6B9AA29A267 *A7 !29$6*"7 C#7 !9A2687 I77 E6A2 78%7FB3 2E 8%AB3E2E

&3 A7DE A2F 782 7AA787'F82 2E 4B6AB8F2623FE 2 8%AB3E2E E1(24FE) A8BA82E 7C A7DE) AB8 2E*2E 743 4B3F8+2 ,7 E23E %4B3B6%F8*2- 3&2EF ABEE12 E73E 744.E 7C 8%AB3E2E 322EJ7

?9+97 7 ,2#687 5@"7 B27 1+4%697 %#7 -#*9AA297 33*+7 327 67 B3 E32EE7 *7 +261A719*7A722#*877287A211A7327%*7P#9**7?D**%P92A877>7,+A2%774#7,229*87 7@"7B*7P#9**7*B22-#A7A73292#6972#&74;34F**7P#9%9-#*72A2A2A76*7A39**776*7 229)9+*72112926*7762724A9-#7%#72%27%#7%97A7)292$6*7$9A29*"7DA7#876*7-#*9A*7 3*+*7 2#&7 &3*7 %7 242-#7 32;*7 2A2A2A7 6B!!92229+7 %#7 %97 *#!!929A7 +261A7 %7 3$6F1*7 %72%#29A7-#973#29A79A%#97%*7 +3A**72136F1A7 %9!!+A*7*6A76*7 32;*7 +#%9+*7?,+A2%774#7,229*877@"7

47 36#*87 67 291A7 %*7 )292$6*7 -#2A929)*7 7 -#26929)*7 *7 +261A7 299-#2$6"7 DA7 !!87BBF,47767DE7#969*A7#A72A*!129A7%*7)292$6*7-#2A929)*73#76*721A7G7#A7