Design for speculation : volatile, temporal, in-transit

DESIGNING FOR SPECULATION

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by Marwan Joseph Abou Dib

Bachelor of Science in Architecture

McGill University 2011

Submitted to the Department of Architecture and the Program in Real Estate Development in Conjunction with the Center for Real

Estate in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degrees of

Master of Architecture

and

Master of Science in Real Estate Development

at the

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

February 2016

OF TECHNOLOGY

MAR 2 9 2016

LIBRARIES

ARCHIVES

02016

Marwan Joseph Abou Dib. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute

publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis document in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created.

Signature redacted

Signature redacted

K.' Anton Garc~ Abril

Professor of Arc Thesis Supekvisor

Signature redacted

./ Takehiko Nagakura

Associate Professor of Design and Computation Chair of the Department Committee on Graduate Students.

Certified by:

Departmient rcljtect and-Center for Real Estate January 14, 2016

Signature redacted

Albert Saiz Professor of Urban Economics and Real Estate, Thesis Supervisor

Accepted by:

Signature

redacted-Albert Saiz Daniel Rose Assocj' -Proiessor of Urban Economics and Real Estate

[

THESIS COMMITTEE

]

Anton Garcia Abril

Professor of Architecture

Thesis Supervisor, MIT Department of Architecture

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Albert Saiz

Professor of Urban Economics and Real Estate, MIT Thesis Supervisor, MIT Center for Real Estate

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Dennis Frenchman

Professor of Urban Design

Reader, MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

DESIGNING FOR SPECULATION

by

Marwanjoseph

Abou Dib

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Submitted to the MIT Department of Architecture and MIT Center for Real

Estate on January 14th, 2016 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the

degrees of:

Master of Architecture and Master of Science in Real Estate Development

[

abstract

]

The thesis project is a reaction to the alarming rate of building and development depreciation caused by foreign investment in the Middle Eastern city of Dubai.

The intervention looks at how architects, developers, and planners can counteract this phenomenon by designing for speculation in order to mitigate future crises

or successes. Understanding the economic terms of "creative destruction" and "planning obsolescence" are imperative to help structure such a proposal Though

such terms were attributed to industrial products such as cars and electronics, they are today applicable in the context of Dubai and similar cities worldwide.

Architecture and real estate products have become victim to this capitalist phenomenon.

The

project

_{is framed as an architectural reaction to the world's increasing capability to make and accumulate in conjunction with a growing desire to be}

tran-sient and global. Has architecture become a mere toy product which can be changed around as it become obsolete? Rather than be destroyed, how can

architecture morph and be updated into something new? Architects are not in complete control of consumer wants and needs; these, too, continue to change

at a dynamic pace. I argue that a synchronized system that can reflect flexibility is integral in order to maintain equilibrium in the urban economic model today

The project design is an infrastructure capable of harnessing capital inflow and outflow while withstanding volatility, temporality and a population in-transit Dubai

is the core case-study and the thesis explores how such a generic system can adapt to cities such as Miami, New York City and

Juba.

Advisors:

Signature red acted

Anton Garcia Abril , Professor of Architecture MIT

Albert Saiz, Professor of Urban Economics and Real Estate MIT

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[PERSONAL STATEMENT TO MIT]

December 14th, 2011

[ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

]

Family

You made me dream and aim for the sky. You knew I had crazy visions for the future but you still supported me. To my mom, dad and brother Tarek; thanks for ev-erything. I really owe it to you for gifting me that encylopedia set when I was 5. It gave me a taste of the world through books and now you actually are helping me live it

Anton Garcia Abril

Without your mentorship and guidance, I would not be where I am at MIT today Thank you for motivating me to become the leader I strive to become and allowing me to defy the status quo. You taught me more than architecture, you showed me how to be an architect and to attack without fear.

Albert Saiz

Your faith in allowing me to pursue both degrees and enlightening me on the world of real estate and the importance of design within it All our conversations on hybridizing both worlds will forever be remebered.

Kun and Tengjia

You guys made my experience at MIT so unique and special. We broke the rules and set ourselves apart from the pack I will cherish every moment we had start-ing a company #tekuma. Gostart-ing to Miami right before thesis for Art Basel and hackstart-ing MIT. It was so much fun 1 We will someday write a book about what we did.

Zheela

Thank you for allowing me to get out of the bubble and discovering the world of entrepreneurship. Your optimism in life is amazing and I know we will in the near future do some wild project or company together.

Naomi

For the outstanding help in finalizing my thesis and putting through my crazy personality. Your attitude and disciplined way of life has taught me a lot There is so much more to learn from you.

MIT

The past 3.5 years changed me as a person. Thanks to MIT for allowing me to discover more about myself to challenge the ordinary and to give me the confi-dence to fearlessly believe that I can take on the biggest problems in the world. I finally graduate with a startup, two master degrees and a never ending support system. There is no place like it I Special shoutout to my classmates and faculty at the MIT Center for Real Estate, MIT Architecture and to Bill Aulet and the Martin Trust Center for Entrepreneurship (you provided me with all the resources to create a world changing venture.)

[INDEX]

1. THE ECONOMICS 10

3. THE SYSTEM 28 3

4. DUBAI 34

&1

5. NEW YORK CITY62 73

6. MIAMI

(4 35

7. JUBA

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93

8. CONCLUSION

CREATIVE DESTRUCTION

[creative destruction refers to the incessant product and process innovation mechanism

by which new production units replace outdated ones.]

PLANNED OBSOLESCENCE

[A manufacturing decision by a company to make consumer products in such a way

that they become out-of-date or useless within a known time period.]

1920's

classical cars were built with durability. iconic masterpieces that could endure time and still be appreciated for their classic grandeur.

1980'.

mid 20th century, car manufactur-ing evolved to build powerful heavy framed bodies that can last the consumer up to 30 years. till today ,especially in cuba, these vintage machines continue to weather the storm

200'S

quality of materials used has

decreased and life span of car use

has diminshed. this is due to car manufacturers producing vehicles

that have a faster half life as well as due to the state of taste

chang-es. tesla has created a car that can adapt to newer technologies through embedded software

40 years

30 years

8

years

199

cell phones went from dunky big Inflexible devices where the consumer would use it for the sole

purpose of calling

5

years

early 2000s due to the popularity of the technology, cellphone makers came out with more models with features which increased the depreciation

1-2 years

2010'

the smartphone has shifted the landscapeof communication. all In one powered devices whihchage every year, the bodyandframe can stay the same, yet through software can be updated to day hlp. 16 de vg- n o seculotion

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5 years

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3 years

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CONSTRUCT NEW

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[THE GENERIC CITY IS ALWAYS FOUNDED BY PEOPLE ON THE MOVE, POISED TO MOVE ON I (EXPLAINING THE INSUBSTANTIALITY OF THEIR FOUNDATIONS] [THE GREAT ORIG-INALITY OF THE GENERIC CITY IS TO ABAN-DON WHAT DOESN'T WORK, WHAT HAS OUT-LIVED ITS USE] [THE IN-TRANSIT CONDI-TION IS BECOMING UNIVERSAL] [IDENTITY

CENTRALIZES THE GENERIC CITY, IT IN-SISTS ON AN ESSENCE, A POINT.]

"Aging in Junkspace is non existent or catastrophic, sometimes an entire junkspace, a department store,

a nightclub, a bachelor pad turns into a slum overnight without warning."

lunkspace sheds architecture like a reptile sheds skins, is reborn every Monday." lunkspace does not pretend to create perfection, only interest."

Junkspace can not be remembered, it is flamboyant yet unmemorable, only makeable."

HIGH EXPANSION OVERSUPPLY w RECESSION EXPANSION RECOVERY LOW OVERSUPPLY RECESSION RECOVERY LOW

22 desionina for speculotion

HIGH

ECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM

In equilibrium, the supply of property should be equal to the demand at various levels of prices. Prices for property assets paid by buyers are a

direct function of real or imputed rent Thus, the relationship between will-ingness to pay for a certain level of rent is translated in a property value when, on the capital market anticipated streams of real or imputed rent are capitalized (at the appropriate capitalization rate). The supply of new property assets is triggered by the difference between property value (determined by capitalized rent) and replacement costs. Any gap between replacement costs and property value acts as a signal for construction activity Since part of the stock of property assets is subject to demolition, withdrawal or deterioration, a certain volume of construc-tion is required to maintain the stock at the required equilibrium level even in strictly static conditions. In the situation for volatile markets, such an economic equilibrium is distorted due to the imbalance between the asset market and space market

asset market val-uation

price ($)

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asset market con-struction space market rent determination R* D stock (SF) space market stock

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In a master development, basic infrastruc-ture is laid out to sub-divide a large plot of land into smaller plots. These plots are then put on the market for private developers to build their own project The problem with the current model is the time-lag from when the initial infrastructure is put in place to the con-struction of the future projects. It usually takes 8-1 2years for such master developments to be fully realized and habitable. Time here is an important factor for investors who are investing in very volatile speculative markets.

26 design ng 'or sreculafion

FUTURE MODEL

The proposal looks into the permanence vs temporary nature of projects If the master developer was to build a megastructure that hosts all integral and critical infrastructure for private developers to fabricate and devel-op temporary structures on plots. Such plots can have a quick turnover of revenue and a new land exchange system is created. Tem-porary structures, events and festivals can take place. Especially catering to entertain-ment and hospitality where depreciation is at its most extreme.

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GENERIC SYSTEM

The overall proposal is a flexible dynamic structure that continues to evolve as the market conditions change. The structure encompasses all necessary infrastructural needs to activate the site and pro-vide a healthy development. Water, electricity, data telemcommunications, sewage treatments and connectivity. All elements come together to create

a manifestation of a megastructure of wealth.

Cap-ital inflow and oufflow become the main driver for the continuation of the project and is essential in the process of creative destruction and planned obsolescence. Architecture becomes a product while the complex is a bank of fabricated dynamic real estate.

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CASE-STUDY: DUBAI

The proposal for the city of Dubai rethinks and reimag-ines the importance of land to speculative investments made throughout the city. Over the years, master de-velopments have been abandoned due to the finan-cial crisis and economic volatility. For this project what if the architect is the developer and the developer is the architect How can both disciplines fuse togeth-er to create a megastructure which cattogeth-ers to the ex-change of fabricated plots of real estate. Plots that can be traded on a market A structure composed of wealth. Each plot can host temporary structures that gives way to the process of creative destruction and planned obsolesence. Located nearby the new aerotropolis that will cater to 100 million passengers in transit by 2020. The project aims to capture the capital that today is limited to the confines of the duty free within the airport. Presented in the case-study of Dubai is a generic complex that provides entertain-ment, hospitality and financial activities for the tourist, investor and nomad in transit

[the world islands:dubai ]

[ potential site locations ]

I.'

It is impossible to not see a correlation between Rem Koolhaas's Junkspace article as a metaphorical reading of the city of Dubai. The article along with "Generic City" really embodies a strong analysis of a city defragmented and Disney-fied due to the forces of capitalism and consumerism. The city has transformed itself into a dizzying and unprecedented form of urbanism which caters to the global nomad described by Rem. The features of the post crisis generic city has yielded itself to an abundance of Junkspace. This thesis looks into how we as architects, developers and planners need to design within these constraints. Could architecture help reimagine a new era of Dubai's growth. One that could possibly have learnt from its volatile characteristic and unpredictable future. Dubai is no stranger to wild ambitious projects and it is with this thesis, that perhaps a hope for designing future developments in a city that can counteract and be responsive to speculation.

Abandoned developments in the city is an indication that a problem exists and the city's quick recovery proves that such ghost construction sites are yet to be amended and instead erode within the desert. The way buildings age in Dubai, the manner fragmented satellite cities become outdated is a strong reason for concern. Where the normal real estate boom bust cycle is about 11 years, in Dubai with the data gathered since the construction frenzy in 2002, it is about 3-5 years and it is becoming ever more volatile. Such extreme seismic activity in the real estate industry means more stock penetrates the market and gets stalled whether the consumer needs it or not

To design for a population that never really exists and is instead transient in nature is an endeavor we as architects must intervene. The thesis does not look to

add more into the junkspace, but instead introduce an innovative design approach which seeks to help adapt to the state the economy is in. Can developers

reinvent an industry historically built on delivering products consumers can expect Building a finished product can no longer be conceived for the speculative city, instead it must be a continuous living machine, one that can grow, contract and adapt to its existing conditions. If Dubai's desert served as a laboratory for experimentation in the 2000's; we can see such a project as a sequel taking on the lessons it has learnt from its very short lived past

[ Dubai airport, the word's busiest international airport 2016 ]

42 idesioning for speculation

If the development of the future is to be a flexible system where architecture is treated like a product adaptable to the consumer; it is

nec-essary to highlight the current and historic developments in the city. The city's unprecedented spectacle from a different approach, one that looks at the urban morphology of Dubai and the parameters it had to work with to become the iconic global city it is today. With only

10 percent of the cities' population of 2 million being local, the city is a hub for a transit global population.

What this meant is that the city can develop and grow in a sporadic manner at an unprecedented rate to place itself on the map of sig-nificant urban centers. In return, this leads to a new transnational urban space within which the new nomads operate. Whether they consume, abandon or even ignore; this did not matter as there was never was a sense of attachment to the built environment Branding was essential to Dubai's manifestation as the world capital of "glitz and glamour" and for that to happen, a Disneyfication model of development had to occur.

The result is a fragmentary nature and the reliance of cars as a primary means of circulation. As a city of merchants, the city was designed for the global visitor to help drive the capital inflow to realize the project Architecture in many instances served as a trick to create eye-catching impressions. The issue with these mega projects was that they served to transform the perception and image of the city to the outside world, but not the reality within. The consequences are cheaply constructed neighborhoods abandoned and stigmatized due to the insecurity in the increasing numbers of migrants and tourists. With no sense of attachment, moving on was easy so architecture and developments became another product that can be consumed and thrown away faster than usual. The alarming rate of depreciation has infected the city with a virus caused by speculation. No longer is the market stabilized for the long term but rather always in an oscillating mode due to exogenous factors.

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GROWTH

It is clear today that Dubai is not in control of its own growth, sure government developer entities such as Nakheel and Emaor drive most of the de-velopments; it is the foreign investor who helps real-ize the dreams of this sheikhdom. Oil prices,

region-al conflict or even politicregion-al policies have strongly

correlated prices in the Dubai market Exogenous economic factors beyond developer's control has caused strong psychological scars which cannot be forgotten after the horrors of the crisis in 2009 where property prices plunged by almost 50- 60%. The recovery today and mini busts hint that the city state is in a state of schizophrenic amnesia continuously in search for corporate greed driven

by capitalistic ideals.

[ dubai's urban growth I

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The real estate sector boomed in 2002 when a new law was issued that allowed foreigners to purchase property. By 2005, the real estate industry contributed to about a quarter of the emirate's GDP Oil represented only 4.9%. What is intriguing is that the sector was planning for a future population yet to come, instead buyers were foreigners looking to park their cash in real estate or in search for a vacation home. By 2008, 25% of the world's construction cranes were operating in Dubai. As these satellite cities spread across the desert came into fruition, it was only logical that the outcome would be clogged highways connecting the fragmented pieces of the city. The rate of growth of cars rose at an average of 10% per year, while the world average was about 2%. The city expanded from a mere

2km2 in 1950 to approximately 140 km2 in 2005 and today is close to 800km2. This is close to major cities such as London, New York and Tokyo. These cities though have populations between 7 and 20 million people. Dubai's present population is only 2 million, yet with the development pipeline today it attempts to cater to one for approximately 10 million.

The financial crisis lead to Dubai's construction frenzy to come to a screeching halt; $582 billion of projects were put on hold, which rep-resents about half the portfolio. By 2011, signs of recovery appeared and the government driven expansion continued to help alleviate the construction paralysis for 3 years.

The justification for the revitalized real estate industry expansion was to promote Dubai's status as a worldwide leader in tourism. Despite the crisis causing a decrease in 8-10% of the population; the aviation industry weathered the storm quite well as the state owned airline Emirates continued to grow out of the booming Dubai International Airport. Visitors to Dubai was clearly growing, from about 5 million in

2008 to about 14 million today and an expected 25 million in 2020. This meant great success for the hospitality, retail and entertainment

industry during the recovery which was a signal to reignite the residential and office developments in the city.

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The economist outlines in an article " The Beauty of Bubbles" the reasons why Dubai was able to recover from the crisis. The article dis-cusses how speculation inflates the bubble, driving prices and value higher and higher, the sharks and the fraudsters peddle fantasies to misguided investors and how the calamitous burst of confidence cause debts, default and ends with a burst! Comparisons are made to cities like Miami, Singapore and Hong Kong which experienced similar real estate booms but the biggest takeaway is how despite each cities' recession and burst.

The bubble left behind an everlasting infrastructure legacy that can be taken on by future developers to help reignite the property market It is this aspect which the thesis hopes to impose on the future architectural product of Dubai. How is it possible for developers to build out infrastructure that despite an economic downturn the project can still continue to be viable rather than be abandoned? The physical assets are in return responsive to future architects, developers and planners to help accelerate the project The financial crash of the 90's in Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore indicate such resilience and also similar to Dubai is Miami's own bubble burst

Today, certain measures have been imposed by the government to make sure no bubble is repeated. A real estate regulatory agency has been created to make sure developers are able to complete projects when started rather than be driven by pure off plan sales. Examples of this are having to secure the land completely before selling units and having 20% of the total cost of the development Such new laws help alleviate the issue but still cannot prevent a bubble; this is where architecture hopes to intervene with regard to development design.

It sees this as a sign of maturity in the sector with no repeat of the epic crash of 2009. Thoughts are that the slowdown of the real estate market in Dubai today after a rapid recovery is positive in the long run, as it gives the market time to absorb the existing supply pipeline, while also alleviating concerns that the market overheats.

As it is obvious that a less volatile market is beneficial for

all stakeholders and will help developers plan their future

pipelines in line with real demand; this is not the case with a city dependent on global visitors and foreign factors. Dis-incentivizing speculators although a goal, it is impos-sible to occur in a risky young market like Dubai which was built on the foundations of speculation. Despite all these optimistic media report, there already is a new wave of speculation taking place, which is ironic as they get dis-cussed within the same headline Longer term the Dubai Expo 2020 is a target date for the next market upswing with worldwide publicity benefiting the real estate sector and additional demand There was a classic three-year boom from 2010-13 that is being followed by three to four years of correction and consolidation. If that is right then Dubai prices could bottom out by the end of 2015 and plateau in 2016 before beginning a new boom up to 2020, or it might take a little longer. It is this sense of the unknown that will keep speculators and developers addicted to the adrenaline overflow from real estate gambling.

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CASE-STUDY: NEW YORK CITY

CITY SCALE: The fast speed at which population grows,

the need to stop extensive land consumption and the engineering challenges are pushing buildings to grow disproportionally in size, but no radical reconsiderations of the infrastructural networks that tie them together are being developed in parallel as it should be expected. In the case of New York City, the island of manhattan has reached critical density level and the proposal looks into how as architects, urban planners and developers such a suprastructural system can free up the urban ground and fabricate a world that provides new opportunities for circulation, transportation, innovative building solu-tions and avantgarde investment solusolu-tions. The grid that usually defines urban infrastructures in the city detaches from the ground and becomes three-dimensional, defin-ing aerial streets and public spaces, and shared vertical cores. The spaces in between infrastructural lines be-come the empty "volumetric plots" to be filled over time and according to needs.

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CASE-STUDY: MIAMI

Miami's rising water levels and increasing demand for exclu-sive waterfront real estate calls for a proposal to

reimag-ine a new system that counteracts such crises. Multi-million

dollar mansions sit on prime fabricated real estate through land reclamation. Miami has become a playground for the rich and famous. A place where glitz and glamor fuse and real estate prices are volatile and rising. A hub for capital inflow from South America, Miami faces a similar situation as Dubai where speculative investment thrives. The difference here is this is not a population in-transit Global warming has threatened the existence of these billion dollar worth gat-ed islands. In this megastructure iteration, how can private residential plots be sold vertically where the consumer can design whatever he or she desires. The fabricated plots can be easily reached by a double helix road that pro-vides privacy and security for each residence. With easy waterfront access, these architectural islands become a billionaire's playground where the structure built becomes another toy to add to their collection.

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RISING WATER LEVEL

A look at the real estate prices of developments on the private islands between Miami

Beach and Downtown Miami. Due to environmental hazards, the city has been unable to replicate the model to reclaim more land from the sea. Instead with rising sea levels, these islands are threatened. With home prices rising due to high demand and low

supply The proposal is a response to the critical situation.

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What if infrastructure in a city is too basic, too low to even create investment opportunities? Integral to a building's survival are elements such as water, sewage and circulation. Juba in South Sudan is the world's new-est capital. Juba is also home to the world's most com-petitive real estate market Forming a new capital city from scratch requires expensive infrastructure to be built before a healthy market can open up to development In the intervention here, can architects build a system that opens up development for investment? Africa has long been waiting to experience an explosion in the field of real estate investment Due to weak political ini-tiatives none, the process has been slow In this case-study, at a smaller scale the city can be injected with a dose of infrastructure that will cater to small building projects. To investors this is an attractive option, as there will be multiple opportunities to realize projects without relying too much on unactivated land. The main under-lying theme here is when no infrastructure exists how can architects and developers respond.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

- Guiltinan, Joseph. "Creative Destruction and Destructive Creations: Environmental Ethics

and Planned Obsolescence." Journal of Business Ethics J Bus Ethics 89.51 (2008): 19-28. Web.

- Rosalsky, Greg. "Why Are Japanese Homes Disposable? A New Freakonomics Radio

Podcast." Freakonomics RSS. N.p., 27 Feb. 2014. Web. 17 May 2015.

- Al Maktoum, Hh Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid. My Vision: CHALLENGES IN THE RACE

FOR EXCELLENCE. Dubai: Motivate, 2006. Print.

- Meyer, Esther Da Costa. The Work of Antonio Sant'Elia: Retreat into the Future. New

Haven: Yale UP, 1995. Print.

- "How to Calculate and Record Depreciation of Fixed Asset - Accountancy. "Accountancy.

N.p., 17 Nov. 2014. Web. 17 May 2015.

- Koolhaas, Rem. Al Manakh 2: Gulf Cont'd. Amsterdam: Stichting Archis, 2010. Print. - Bouman, Ole, Mitra Khoubrou, and Rem Koolhaas. Al Manakh. Netherlands: Stichting

Archis, 2007. Print.

- "Predictions for 2015: Optimism but Volatility Expected in UAE Property and Equities _|

The National." Predictions for 2015: Optimism but Volatility Expected in UAE Property and Equities | The National. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Apr. 2015.

Since I was 10, I knew I wanted to study architecture. Having grown up in Dubai, I was mesmerized by the phenomenal growth and tranformation of the city Despite my educational journey coming to an end, the project embodies the way

I perceive design through motion and speed. I get easily

bored by the static I After pursuing a real estate degree and understanding the fundamentals of the discipline I can now someday realize this wild dream through the fusion of business reality and unleashed creativity. Call me a visionary or a futurist I strongly believe in the thought that buildings can resemble machines and be responsive to change. The metabolists failed at it but perhaps with the technology availble today there is a possibility of a new design system.

I used to dream of getting accepted into MIT when I'd

fas-cinate about the futuristic city Today, I feel humbled and privileged to finally be done and have my name forever be associated with this institute where the status quo is continu-ously challenged and the sky is the limit