DG AGRI DASHBOARD: CEREALS Last update: 27.10.2016
PricesProduction & StocksTrade Weatherconditions
EU (milling) & US (SRW) wheat futures - 60 days CME US maize & soybeans futures - 60 days Monthly avg: currency - oil - freight
€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t
US Gulf (SRW) 169 185 5% 2% -14% -15%
US Gulf (HRW) 177 194 4% 1% -9% -10%
EU Rouen (grade 1) 170 186 3% 0% -2% -3%
CA St Lawrence (CWAD) 293 320 16% 12% 3% 2%
EU Port-la-Nouvelle 275 301 16% 13% -12% -13%
Black sea (feed) 141 154 4% 1% -18% -19%
EU Rouen (feed) 140 153 2% -1% -16% -17%
US Gulf (3YC) 155 169 9% 6% -5% -6%
EU Bordeaux 169 184 3% 0% 3% 2%
soybeans US Gulf (2Y) 364 398 6% 3% 11% 10%
maize
26 Oct 2016 m/m variation y/y variation
Export prices FOB
durum wheat wheat
barley
140 155 170 185 200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
27/08 06/09 16/09 26/09 06/10 16/10 26/10
€/t
Euronext milling wheat futures Daily Volume
DEC'17: 176 MAY'17: 173 DEC'16: 164
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tons)
115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165
0 150 300 450 600 750 900 105 0 120 0
27/08 06/09 16/09 26/09 06/10 16/10 26/10
$/t
CME Maize futures Daily volume DEC'17: 154 MAY'17: 146 DEC'16: 139
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tons)
168 167
158
140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
€/t Wheat - monthly avg. export prices (fob)
US Gulf EU Rouen Black Sea
149 162 151
140 150 160 170 180 190
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
€/t Maize - monthly avg. export prices (fob)
US Gulf EU Bordeaux Black Sea
2069
1027 747
329 0
1000 2000 3000
cereals maize wheat soybeans World production (million tonnes)
2013/14 2014/15 (est) 2015/16 (forecast) 2016/17 (proj.)
295
135
60 60
0 100 200 300 400
cereals wheat maize barley
EU production (million tonnes)
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 (est) 2016/17 (proj)
492
216 231
29 0
200 400 600
cereals maize wheat soybeans World stocks (million tonnes)
2013/14 2014/15 (est) 2015/16 (forecast) 2016/17 (proj.)
43
9 16
8 0
10 20 30 40 50 60
cereals wheat maize barley
EU stocks (million tonnes)
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 (est) 2016/17 (proj)
52
30 40 50 60 70
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr -16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Brent Crude Oil
$/barrel
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
27/08 06/09 16/09 26/09 06/10 16/10 26/10
$/t
Chicago (CME) SRW futures DEC'16: 151
MAY'17: 164 DEC'17: 181 Daily volume
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tons)
340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385 390
0 100 200 300 400 500
27/08 06/09 16/09 26/09 06/10 16/10 26/10
$/t
Chicago soybeans futures Daily volume
NOV'16: 371 JAN'17: 375 MAR'17: 378
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136tons)
875
200 400 600 800 100 0 120 0
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr -16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Freight (Baltic dry index)
1.10
1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr -16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Exchange rate € vs $
$
Wheat imports Coarse grain Wheat exports Coarse grain exports
Trade balance
10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Million tonnes
Cereals: 16 marketing years trade evolution (EU28 countries)
2015/16 32.6
10 20 30 40
300 600 900 120 0
Y -million tonnes
lume -thousand tonnes
Common wheat & flour - exports
2016/17 7.9 Weekly volum e (current MY)
2015/16 14.1
8 12 16
200 300 400
Y-million tonnes
lume -thousand tonnes
Barley, malt included - exports
2016/17 Weekly
volum e (current MY)
2015/16 13.3
8 12 16
200 300 400
MY -million tonnes
me -thousand tonnes
Maize - imports
2016/17 2.4 Weekly volum e (current MY)
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€/t $/t €/t $/t €/t $/t
US Gulf (SRW) 169 185 5% 2% -14% -15%
US Gulf (HRW) 177 194 4% 1% -9% -10%
EU Rouen (grade 1) 170 186 3% 0% -2% -3%
CA St Lawrence (CWAD) 293 320 16% 12% 3% 2%
EU Port-la-Nouvelle 275 301 16% 13% -12% -13%
Black sea (feed) 141 154 4% 1% -18% -19%
EU Rouen (feed) 140 153 2% -1% -16% -17%
US Gulf (3YC) 155 169 9% 6% -5% -6%
EU Bordeaux 169 184 3% 0% 3% 2%
soybeans US Gulf (2Y) 364 398 6% 3% 11% 10%
maize
26 Oct 2016 m/m variation y/y variation
Export prices FOB
durum wheat wheat
barley
Sources: International Grains Council, France Agrimer
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168 167
158
140 150 160 170 180 190 200
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
€/t Wheat - monthly avg. export prices (fob)
US Gulf EU Rouen Black Sea
Source: International Grains Council
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149 162 151
140 150 160 170 180 190
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16
€/t Maize - monthly avg. export prices (fob)
US Gulf EU Bordeaux Black Sea
Sources: International Grains Council, France Agrimer
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2069
1027 747
329
0 1000 2000 3000
cereals maize wheat soybeans World production (million tonnes)
2013/14 2014/15 (est) 2015/16 (forecast) 2016/17 (proj.)
Source: International Grains Council
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295
135
60 60
0 100 200 300 400
cereals wheat maize barley
EU production (million tonnes)
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 (est) 2016/17 (proj)
Source: European Commission – DG AGRI
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492
216 231
29
0 200 400 600
cereals maize wheat soybeans World stocks (million tonnes)
2013/14 2014/15 (est) 2015/16 (forecast) 2016/17 (proj.)
Source: International Grains Council
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43
9
16
8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
cereals wheat maize barley
EU stocks (million tonnes)
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 (est) 2016/17 (proj)
Source: European Commission – DG AGRI
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140 155 170 185 200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
27/08 06/09 16/09 26/09 06/10 16/10 26/10
€/t
Euronext milling wheat futures Daily Volume
DEC'17: 176 MAY'17: 173 DEC'16: 164
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 50 tons)
130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
27/08 06/09 16/09 26/09 06/10 16/10 26/10
$/t
Chicago (CME) SRW futures DEC'16: 151
MAY'17: 164 DEC'17: 181 Daily volume
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136 tons)
EU (milling) & US (SRW) wheat futures - 60 days
Source: MATIF Source: CME
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115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165
0 150 300 450 600 750 900 105 0 120 0
27/08 06/09 16/09 26/09 06/10 16/10 26/10
$/t
CME Maize futures Daily volume
DEC'17: 154 MAY'17: 146 DEC'16: 139
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 127 tons)
340 345 350 355 360 365 370 375 380 385 390
0 100 200 300 400 500
27/08 06/09 16/09 26/09 06/10 16/10 26/10
$/t
Chicago soybeans futures Daily volume
NOV'16: 371 JAN'17: 375 MAR'17: 378
Daily traded volume (1000 contracts of 136tons)
CME US maize & soybeans futures - 60 days
Source: CME Source: CME
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52
30 40 50 60 70
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr -16 Jul-16 Oct-16
Brent Crude Oil
$/barrel
875
200 400 600 800 100 0 120 0
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr -16 Jul-16 Oct-16
Freight (Baltic dry index)
Monthly avg: currency - oil - freight
Source: Intercontinental Exchange
Source: European Central Bank Source: The Baltic Exchange
1.10
1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14
Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr -16 Jul-16 Oct-16
Exchange rate € vs $
$
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Source: European Commission – DG TAXUD
2015/16 32.6
0 10 20 30 40
0 300 600 900 120 0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Total MY -million tonnes
Weekly volume -thousand tonnes
w eek
Common wheat & flour - exports
2016/17 7.9 Weekly
volum e
(current MY)
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Source: European Commission – DG TAXUD
2015/16
14.1
0 4 8 12 16
0 100 200 300 400
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Total MY-million tonnes
Weekly volume -thousand tonnes
w eek
Barley, malt included - exports
2016/17 2.3 Weekly
volum e
(current MY)
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Source: European Commission – DG TAXUD
2015/16 13.3
0 4 8 12 16
0 100 200 300 400
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
Total MY -million tonnes
Weekly volume -thousand tonnes
w eek
Maize - imports
2016/17 2.4 Weekly
volum e
(current MY)
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Source: Eurostat
Wheat imports Coarse grain
imports Wheat exports
Coarse grain exports
Trade balance
30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Million tonnes
Marketing Year (July-June)
