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Employment Lagged in Quebec and Continued to Advance in Ontario in October
By Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist
HIGHLIGHTS
f For the fifth month in a row, Ontario recorded a gain of over 35,000 jobs (+37,000 in October).
f The unemployment rate was down for the fifth straight month, from 7.3% in September to 7.0% last month. It is still higher than the pre-pandemic level of 5.5%.
f The Ontario participation rate held steady at 65.4%. This is greater than the February 2020 level (65.1%), however.
f In Quebec, employment fell by 300 in October, after increasing by 31,200 in September.
f The province’s unemployment rate hit 5.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from September.
f Quebec’s participation rate declined by 0.2 percentage points in October. It was 64.3%, below the pre-pandemic mark of 64.8%.
COMMENTS
Most of Ontario’s gains in October occurred in part-time work. The province seems to be on the upswing, despite the automobile industry’s difficulties. An average of 53,550 workers joined the labour market each month over the past six months. In October, employment increased mainly in retail trade (+46,400) and other services (+17,300).
In Quebec, the October break brings the average monthly gains for the past six months to 15,283. This is not enough to reach the pre-pandemic level of employment: Quebec is at 99.2% of the 4,353,300 jobs in February 2021, while Ontario is at 100.6%.
ECONOMIC STUDIES | NOVEMBER 5, 2021
Last month, Quebec’s gains were spread across a wide range of sectors, while losses were concentrated mainly in two industries:
manufacturing (-15,900) and accommodation and food services (-10,900).
IMPLICATIONS
The October data is mixed, but does not show a significant decline. We see that Quebec and Ontario have learned to live with the pandemic. With the help of vaccination, the last wave of COVID-19 cases did not require lockdown measures and did not cause a major drop in employment. The question now is to what extent the end of the CRB on October 23 will affect the employment and participation rates. The effect, if any, may be seen in the November survey results to be released in early December. We’ll keep you posted.
GRAPH
Ontario's participation rate has surpassed that of February 2020, which is not yet true for Quebec
Sources: Statistics Canada and Desjardins, Economic Studies In %
59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66
FEBRUARY JUNE OCTOBER FEBRUARY JUNE OCTOBER
Quebec Ontario
2020 2021
