UNITED NATIONS
ECONOMIC and SOCIAL COUNCIL
Distr.
10 November 1971 Original: ENGLISH
iittmniii
in ran in uin in it in mi m fni in ii imuni
ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA African Population Conference
Accra, Ghana* 9-lk December 1971
THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN AFRICA (SESSION I & II)
M71-3O14
E/CN.14/P0PM -
THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN AFRICA A. INTRODUCTION
1. Interest in the demography of Africa has increased of late, and one of the reasons for this steins from its past, present and prospective demographic configurations. Although, it is not the most populous of the- world's major regions, it cei-tainly commands a position of prominence in . havxng one of the fastest rates of population growth in a slowly developing
economy;, ' .
2. The estimated rate of annual increase of,the African population was 1.9 per cent in the 1930s. . It increased to 2.3 per cent during the period 1960/65, and to 2.6 per cent during the period 1965/70, compared to the annual rate of 2.0 per cent for the population of the world,, According to UN estimates, Africa's rate of.growth is next only to that of Latin America and South Asia (2.8 per cent ..yearly for the period 1965/70); the -
same estimates show that Africa would have the highest rate of population growth (3.0 per cent) by the period 1980/3Se These indications of rapid . growth coupled with the prevailing pattern of land use and the scarcity of funds for exploiting the other natural resources of the. continent call for a systematic examination of the present demographic situation.
B. AVAILABILITY OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA IN AFRICA
3. Although in the last decade or so, significant strides have been made towards acquiring more and better data on population in-Africa, the fact remains that the overall quantity and quality of demographic data in the continent have to be greatly improved to bring them in line with levels existing in the developed countries.
4. Actually many African countries lack basic demographic information;
they do not. always possess reliable knowledge of the. existing demographic situation and the components of future population change," which are essential guides to sound social and economic development, especially in the area of needs affecting health, education, production targets, occupational placement,
and many- othersB
■5- The paucity of basic information apart, various kinds of statistical
errors occur in African demographic data. Apart from the usual sampling errors found in cases where sample surveys were taken, there are the other systematic or non-sampling'errors arising from the mis-management of census operations and from the quality of recorded responses. Errors of the lasV . type are exemplified in poor reporting of events in the life of respondents due to forgetfulness, illiteracy, ignorance, and the fact1that people are not used to keeping written records. The major disadvantage of sampling lies in the fact that it is usually impossible to secure a reasonably
precise estimate of the population in respective administrative units, unless all possible units of the universe are included. In the past, some African countries-took samples of rural areas and riot tov/ns.
E/CN.U/POP/44
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6O The de^ee of the inadequacy of demographic data varies from one African country to the other, depending on which source of information
(complete censuses, sample censuses, "administrative" censuses, or vital
registration) is considered, '
7. Although continuing population censuses began in some African countries in the uscorcd .half -of the 19th century, some countries, especially in. the Francophone 4one, had to rely on the'less scientific administrative count
for most of their demographic data. The situation in the twenty years^sinoe World War II (1%-5-^5) can be summarised for 58 stated countries as follows:
Type of . Censuses .taken during 1 94-5-65
Number of countries involved
a) One complete count made 21 1;} Two or moro complete counts nade 28 ,c) Only incomplete counts ce.de 6 d) Administrative counts only 1
e) Others 2
Total countries - 58
Percentage of population in Africa involved
19.761.9.
16*6 iu0 0.8 i00o0
Source i EGA, I)emographic' Data available in Al'rica. and Planning requirements
E/CN,VpOP/2, ^9 May 1969, P.3. "■ ."■■-.
8. If we assume that, in the period, countries listed as having had two
or more census operations had regular counts, then it could be said that
about half of the African countries attempted counting their populations .regularly* The proportion of the total population covered by such regular
counts barely exceeded three-fifths. The remaining relatively large numbers of countries and part of the population with either irregular, incomplete or administrative counts were obviously faced with serious financial; organiza tional and sometimes cultural difficulties in executing modern scientific counts, and it is significant that such problems continue to militate against the abilities.of many countries to organize censuses in subsequent years, 9- Between 19S5 and 1970, only 21 out of 57 listed countries have.so far made'"a complete enumeration of their population. - The difficulties facing African nations are further illustrated by the fact that out of 21 listed countries with a plan to carry out a census in 1970,- only 5 succeeded in doing so and even so Senegal had or is having a sample censusc Looking ahead however, plans have been made to carry out censuses in Mali (1972), Somalia (1973) aiid Ethiopia. (1974)- Of two countrios (Niger and Mauritania) v^hich
had no censuses sir.ee 1965* Niger contemplated having one in the near future.
It has with many other .African countries including some of those listed above requested assistance under the other African iJsnous Profip.TiCD.o v?:..'.ich is
financed by the United Nations Fund for Population Activities«
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10. There is, nevertheless, a case to be made for the channelling of more financial and organizational aid from other.agencies interested in population matters to some of the African countries- having difficulties in organizing censuses. Perhaps, as well as activating population change, agencies should provide additional funds which could be used to provide census data with which action programmes could be better planned and directed.
11 - Apart from the problems of irregular and incomplete coverage, African censuses also lacked adequate coverage of items of information needed for planning. Based upon population censuses taken in the period 1955-1964, the proportion of world and African populations with selected types of
census data are given below: '
Variables World ■ ; • Africa
Sex
Age ■ :
Urban/rural
Type of economic activity Marital status
Household size Industry
Occupation Status Literacy Religion
School attendance Children born alive Ethnic group
Children living
67-66 64 64 60 . 60 52 52 4746 2731.
21 18
3
61.
58 :
67
4428 , 16 23 40 24 21 386
0 30, . .
4
Source: United Nations "The World Population Problem: Human Fertility Aspects", E/AC.52/L.72, 31 October 1969,
12. It is obvious that by world standards, Africa lags behind in the comprehensiveness and number of variables collected during censuses. In fact, judging from the original source of the above figures, Africa compared favourably with Asia but not with South America- which had rates of coverage neerer those of Europe, Oceania and North America. The seriousness of the deficiency in the African case lies in the fact that the variables including literacy, fertility, economic activity, industry and school attendance, which were greatly under-covered\ are more basic for economic-planning than those
such as ethnic group and religion, which were given more coverage.
13. Actually, not'enough'attention has been given in /the past to collecting adequate and reliable information on the economic activity 6f- the population in Africa. Statistics related to this variable present special problems wh-ich arise from the fact that the methods and concepts commonly used
Page
elsewhere are difficult to apply in an economy where the non-monetary sector is still very important and the division of labour i3 much less advanced. As the conditions, are now, if is-often difficult to ascertain whether women are economically active,-nor is it easy to apply the same minimum age for employment in most African censuses as obtains, elsewhere. The age limit used in some African censuses has tended to be lower than usual; 6 years of age in Libya and Algeria, \Q years in Ethiopia and so on, - : 1k, Some very basic variables, particularly age and sex, appear however
to have received better coverage in the sense of being included more often ..
than other variables. But.this is only one aspect of the problem, because not only the accuracy of recorded ages but their classification into*ago groups have inspired criticisms of one kind or the other. Mention has already been made of the effect of illiteracy, ignorance and memory lapse on the quality of census and survey responses. Age happens to be one of the variables, including fertility and mortality, which are affected by differential omissions arising from failure to remember or record events properly j/ ' The effect of differential omission by age and sex is seen' in the erratic distribution and fluctuation of age and sex ratios from one age group to another. In the absence of any demographic upheavals, the expectation is that the siae of successive age groups should decrease fairly regularly. In particular, under-enumeration of children 0-k years occurs frequently as a result of shifting ages to the next age groups 5-9 years and as a result of failure to record dead children and thoso
temporarily away from tne household at the time of enumeration. The
relative deficit at 0-4 years is accompanied by an excess proportion of - ■ children at ages 5-9. There has also been a tendency to over-estimate the age of girls 1-0-14 v/ho have passed puberty especially if they are married; - sometimes, of course, girls aged 10-14- who have not reached puberty or have . not married are pushed into the next loner age group, 5~9 years. Over-
estimation of females aged 15-19, 20-24 and 25-29 has been observed and is attributed to an unconscious pushing of ages of mothors upwards. In general, some of the errors of under- or over-estimation of ages arise from v/rong estimates of ages not'by-respondents but by the-interviewers who
. unwittingly misjudge the ages of respondents because of certain
circumstantial evidence.
15. The inadequacy of classified age categories published for a number of African countries is related to the difficulty of obtaining data on the exact ages of respondents. In order to smoothen out inaccuracies, broad age grouping have.been adopted", in preference to the more, conventional five-year
age grouping. ■ ■ . ' ■ ' .
16 A study of the:availability of data on population distribution by five year age groups up to age 60 clearly underlines the magnitude of the problem. Only 45 per cent of the.countries included, in the study, published 1/ See United Nations. Methods of Estimating Basic Demographic Measures_lrom
Incomplete Data, Manual IV, ST/SOySeries A/42, New York, 1967, pp. -17-21.
E/CN.-lli/POPM-
Page 5
data by five year intervals for all othhic'groups while another' 10.7.per ■ cent gave similar distributions but'only for. Africans. .Unorthodox grouping of ages occurred in about 20 per cent of the countries. ■ ' ; " ,:
Available Statistics, on Age Distribution'in Afric^ • ' :
1 " Percentage
Categories of five year. - ■ ■ • '< No. of ■ Total Population Age Grouping - ■. Countries : ■ Involv>3d
1. Five year age groups exist for: ..".. ' . ■ _..,... . (a) Whole territory and Ethnic ■■-.■■ ' ■
groups' ' ;■ ■ ' ■ . 25 ■ - . 61.9 -. .; ;
(b) Only Africans ' ' "6" ' " 6O8 '-
(c) Only part of the territory 6 1^*9
2. Countries with unorthodox grouping-. . ,11, ■ : ■ ; V+-3
3. Others ; . : ~ : ' ; 8- ■ • 2'1
Total' ■ '; > ■ : :- 56./:/ . . .'. _100r0 _
Source: UNECA, DQmographib Data Available, in.Africa and Planning .
■ Requirements E/tN.1i|./P0P/2,-,p.5. - ' •"■ ■ "' . . 17. Two other basic,.variables not adequately covered e.re fertility and mortality. V7ith vital registration in a'bad state' * censuses could provide .
some reasonable measures of both' indices, which for planning purposes, yield, the basic estimate of growth rate desired. It should however be.added that -"
information on births and deaths should.not be' confined to obtaining gross ..
rates, but should, extend"t.o calculating age specific rates because these would give, a more accurate'view of.the demographic situation and a better basis; for making population .estimates. In addition, care should be exercised
to reduce, the errors in birth and dearth doolara-tion as well as the ages of mothers and their children'. The inaccuracies and .errors observed in connec-■
tion with records of births and deaths 'in most African censuses-duid- onuiaera- tions have led to the use of different demographic models of growth to
estimate birth and.death, rates. . .
18. In general, the African census scene presents some features that make it necessary to. adapt the/United. Nations African Principles and 3ecommenda- ' tions for the 1970 Population censuses and the World Recommendations-for■
the 1970 Housing Censuses (see Statistical Papers Series MV* and M45). Such-
an adaptation has, in fact, necessitated the. modification and expansxon of specific issues in the United Nations Recommendations and the resultconstitutes the documents; "African Recommendations for the 1970 Population Censuses" and "African Recommendations for the 1970 Housing Censuses"
(CAS.6/1 and CAS/62 respectively).
Page 6
19. In the same manner shown for censuses, vital registration began over 70 years ago in some-African countries. The,current situation in many parts of Africa, however, is that registration is either non-existent.or is far from being adequately established, and therefore is not an
important source of information. Apart from the non-African populations of Southern Africa and those of some islands, the small size of which makes registration easy, registration operates with any degree of success mostly in certain large' urban centres'. According to the UN Demographic
Year Book for 1967, the "population of Africa covered by complete registration of births is around 3.5 per cent. The situation regarding deaths is also not encouraging. Of Kl countries for which information was available in ECA's March 1968 Demographic Handbook for Africa,, only 10 had complete
registration, 28 depended on sample surveys while 9 countries relied on other indirect methods. Excluding the non-Bantu population of South Africa, only 2.5 per cent of the population of the continent is covered by complete
registration of births and deaths.
20. Considerable progress has, however, been made during the past decade, and in some cases, especially in Tunisia, birth registration .appoars to be complete. Yet it must be conceded that progress in the direction of
establishing a comprehensive and well organized vital registration system must battle with the same forces which militate against the adequacy of census data, viz: ignorance, illiteracy and changing people's minds to a state of regarding exercises of this nature as ariessehtial routine of
life. Something has to be done through education or propaganda to make . -.
people accept registration and record keeping as essential elements of their
cultural life,
21 Since censuses are expensive, time-consuming and. administratively cumbersome, and because the results of vital registration are in many ways unsatisfactory, sample surveys have been increasingly used to provide . directly some basic vital statistics. This has been done usually by the method of retrospective enquiries about events at a given period, prior to the survey.- The statistical casualties of such an approach, including
errors arising mainly from omission of events inside or inclusion of everus^
outside the reference period, have boon indicated earlier on in this analysis as one of under- or over-enumeration of events. Therefore in using sample surveys, caution must be exercised to adjust for both sampling and non-
sampling errors and biases. - . . . .
22 It is particularly important to note that sample surveys are likoly to
provide less accurate data on deaths than on births. This is also true of
Tensus data and hence, in general mortality.estimates for most African countries are much, less satisfactory than fertility estimates. Furthermore since deaths of infants are more likely to escape reporting, infant mortality rates tend to be proportionately more subject to errors than estimates of crude death rates. However, techniques applicable not only to Africa butPage 7/
to other developing areas, have been developed to help in obtaining adjusted estimates of vital rates from defective or limited data. \J
23, It is difficult to demonstrate on an individual basis the efforts made so far towards improving the quality of.statistical data at both,
collection and analysis levels. It is, however, on record that since 196O
increased government activity in this matter has been noticoable as a - result of the ever growing awareness of the importance of statistics for planning purposes. Quite apart from the censuses indicated earlier on in ths analysis, there have been many demographic sample surveys sponsored by ,.
governments and research workers in different parts of Africa., description of some of the major ones based either on the method of retrospective inquiry or on the method of repeated visits is contained in the EGA document:
Statistical Data Collection .on Fertility in Africa through Demographic Surveys, E/CN.14/P0P/13. In addition, there has been a remarkable out-put of.demographic
literature on research results and techniques of data analysis} also in the sixties., on a scale never known before, 2/ This literary development was very- much encouraged by a series of scientific conferences and seminars which
publicly exposed the African population problem and discussed ways and means of improving the situation. Apart from meetings held outside Africa, J/ the First African Population Conference was held in Ibadan, Nigeria in January
1966, when many experts discussed African population and passed resolutions aimed at promoting more and better studies and censuses in Africa. A follow- up of this meeting took place in 1969 in Nairobi and provided th-- opportunity for assessing development since the 1966 meeting,, It is on record that one of the salient oVserva.tions of the 1969 meeting made during the closing session by Professor A.J. Coalo of Princeton University, vr&v, about the improvement in both quality and quantity of the papers presented at the. meeting ovor those at
the 1966 meeting. The quality of the discussion also improved, while the success of training programmes launched by various agencies including ' ■ universities and the Population Council Inc., New York, showed clearly in the increased number and participation of African demographers at the 1969 meeting.
24. The contribution of the secretariat of the Economic Commission for Africa towards developing demographic statistics in the sixties is shown by its activities in organising seminars and meetings participated in by various
Aj United Nations Methods of estimating Basic Demographic Measures from,.
Incomplete Data, United Nations Publication Sales No.: 67 .XIII,'2: W. Brass, - et.al., The Demography>of Tropical Africa (Princeton University Press,.
1968) R.K. Som, Recall Lapse in Demographic Enquiries (London and Bombay,
:Asia Publishing House, 1970), . ' ■
,2/ Apart from very'many scientific papers in journals and elsewhere see United' Nations Pp.- cit.. Sales No.: 67.XIII.2j W. Brass et al. Op. cit.
R. K. Som; Op. cit;'. J £ t Caldwell and Co Okonjo, The Population of Tropical Africa, Longmans^ London, 1968.
2/-F. Lorimer and M. Karp (es) Population in Africa: Report of a Seminar held at Boston University, Boston University Press, Boston, 6
Page 8
African government statisticians and in the presentation of documents of
varied demographic content at such meetings, \J The current programme of
the Secretariat's Population Programme Centre in collaboration with the Statistics Division alias. not only at organizing more.of these meetings in , future but at executing certain pilot studies on fertility and mortality in a number of selected African countries. In addition, the Centre has been giving and, will continue to render technical advice on demographic matters, to African countries at the mquest of their governments. Assistance in' demographic training has been given to nationally and internationally
sponsored institutions in Addis Abab^., Dar-es-Salaam end I0EP (Dakar).
Efforts in this direction will increase with the establishment later this year, of two demographic training and research. Institutes to be cited
respectively in Accra and Yaounde to serve the English- and French-speaking countries. As already indicated, the Centre is collaborating with'the United Nations Headquarters and othsr interested agencies in planning the African Census Programing aiiaed at demographic data collection and analysis for all African countries at their request.,
C. THE DEMOGRAPHIC PAII'JSRN AWJ STRUCTURE
(i) Population donai'ty and distribution
25. X-ho population of Africa is estimated at 355 million in mid-1970, Its distribution by aub-region 2/ is showri- in the following table:
Sub--.region
West Africa North Africa East Africa Central Africa Rest of Africa
Total Africa.
Per t--..t of population -
1970.
^ i 22 12 11 100
Fe:.' oenz of area
20 28 1718
j~I
100
Density per
km ' ■
18 10
■ 158 8 12
\J Seminar on Population Problara in .Africa., Cairo, 29 October - 10 November
196',; "E^STit/86. Semlmr"_on the Application of Pornographic Data and Analysis to Development PlanningTAddis .Ababa, 2-9 June 19^fT, E/CN.14-A57, First
Meeting of the "Praparatory Committee for the African Population Conference, Addis Ababa. 27-31 May 1969." E/CM.-i'tAqS, SsooikL Meeting of bhe Preparatory Committee for the African Population C^rrferencej, Addis Ababa, 3-5 June 1969, E/&rMZf/F0P727J "Meeting "of the Expert Group on Population, Addis Ababa
8-10 June 1969, E/C>Civ'pOP/"23B gH^JK9rjbn6Ar°>tT?. on CeilsusGS of Population and Housing, Addis Aoaba. 17-29 June 1968", ffc>\\AKfi&h* African Seminar
on Vital Statistics/Addis Ababa. .1J+-;I3 Decsmber -1964, ^N,14-/333. This list
does not include well o^er 18 meetings on demographic and related statistics.
2/ For the classification of the countries Dy sub-region, sos Annex A,.
Page 9
The average population density in Africa in mid-1970 .was ***"**<* *?*e
about 12 persons: per .square kilometer, and this is less than hal. of the world average.of 27. Although the overall population density of Africa is low, over-crowding does exist in some pockets of concentration whichin most cases are the coastal and urban areas, as well as those areas border-
ing certain rivers and lakes and those witnessing substantial exploitation, of mineral deposits. Between individual countries, population density varies considerably, the. range.being between 1 and.W>8 (if..we :exqludeSpanish North Africa which has a .density, of.,about 5,000 jsr square kilometer).
For economic reasons.,.,crude densities could be. misleading and. hence many factors have to be-taken-into account, in assessing-the .strain tnat ■ • ■■
population could put on agricultural and developed resources, a.or instance in"terms of cultivable land, arable density in Africa was estimated to be 161* persons per square kilometer in 1968 as compared to the world average*. . , of 24.8 The limitations of crude density measures remain even when
allowances are,made for arable land and agricultural population and .
developed resources. '■■-.■ ■-..
(±l) Pomilation structure: age-and sex distribution ... ■ . .
26. The sex and age distribution of. a population gives .'some indications qf .
the manpower potential of the population and-also .provides a measure of its dependency load, consumption needs and the social requirements^^ for the ;present and the future. A knowledge of the sexand age distribution.of a
"population is, therefore, indispensable in the economic planning ot a.. ,
country, . . ■ " . ". . . " ... ■ : ...'
27 The population of Africa is a. young one.. On average, in 1970, children,
under 15 years-of age made-up i* per cent of the total population.. P?™W
if.the working age gVoups (I5r6l.) .for»d 53, per cent of;the .total^|fon,
while the aged (65 years and over) represented 3 per cent With this age
distribution,. Africa had the-highest dependency ratio which ^s about 87 m
1970; it is-estimated that the rate will increase to about 92 by I9«5.but.will'decline in almost all other major areas of the world.
28 For the. continent, as a whole, females outnunb er aaLes and this is in
contrast with the observed-higher proportion of males in.other developing areas However, some countries have high sex ratio; this, is the case inST ' i l Ethii Mritius and the French
areas, nuwwv.wi, aum^ ^^u.n.v^.j.w« ..«..- .—t^-- - . _■;... i»
North Africa.- In East Africa also, Ethiopia, Mauritius and the French
o? thelfars and Issas, males- outnumber females. . In.all countries of Central
Africa, females outnumber males, while in West Africa femaxes clearly . outnumber males except in.Gambia,-Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mauritania and Nigeria..
In the countries of Southern Africa uhere the lowest sex ratio in the continent' is found (Lesothp 76.0), only Angola, Namibia and Rhodesia.
experience sex ratios over 100. . : . -.. ■ . . •
29 The low sex-ratios observed in some of the African countries would be*
partly explained by the migration "of We labour. This is certainly the case
in countries like Lesotho, Botswana, Swaziland, Malawi, where a sir-able
number of males are known to have emigrated to South Africa. . In west
E/CN.1/4./P0P/U.
Page 10
Africa, this type of emmigration is known to have taken place in countries like Uahomey, Togo and Upper Volta. It is also possible that the observed variations are partly due to the.'sex-ratio' at birth in these countries.
Unfortunately, the unavailability of accurate data on sex ratio at birth renders evidence, about its influence on total sex distribution questionable;
more evidence will be-needed to confirm the relationship in the future.
30. Because of the higher rate of net migration of males to urban areas, ■ in most countries for which data are available, males outnumber females in the urban areas. For the non-African population in the countries,
where data are available, there is a general tendency for males to ■ outnumber females. .."""' -.-•;•? ■'■;■ ■ '■" :
(iii) Ethnic composition ' '
31• Data on ethnic composition of the population are important for under standing economic and social structures and income distributions. Usually, the non-African population is mainly concentrated in the urban areas and its participation in economic activities follows a different pattern from that of the indigenous population. Apart from the small island dependencies with large non-indigenous populations, the countries having above 10 per cent of their populations as non-indigenous are South Africa and Namibia.
In West and Central Africa, the proportion of non-indigenous populations in all the countries is rather low (about 2 per cent). In the North, East and other African countries, the position is a little different. Morocco and Tunisia in the North, Kenya in the East, and South Africa, Namibia, Angola and Swaziland, all have appreciably high proportions of non-African
population. Generally, after the Europeans, Asians form the largest group in East Africa and other African countries - 3 per.cent in South Africa, 2.4 in Kenya, 3.4 per cent in Mauritius, and 1.1 each in-Uganda and
Tanzania. '
(iv) Rural and urban population
32. With about 13 per cent or 37 million of its population living in towns of 20,000 or more inhabitants in i960, Africa is the least urbanized region of the world. However, the annual rate of urban growth (5"per cent)
between-1940 and 1960'was with that of Latin America (5.2 per cent) one of
the fastest in. the world. While it is estimated that by 2000 the percentage of the urban population will, be; 28 per cent (or 218 million) of the total population, its rate of growth will decline to 4.5 per cent during 1980-2000>
but will still be the fastest urbanizing area in the world.
33. As for sub-regional variations, it is estimated that between i960 and 1970, the urban population, as a percentage of the total population,
increased from 24 to 30 for North Africa, 11 to 14 for West Africa, 6 to 8 for East Africa, 8 to 11 for Central'Africa, and 20 to 25 for-the rest of Africa. A characteristic of the urban population in Africa is its tendency to be highly concentrated in one town, the primate city, which
in all African countries (with the exception of three, namely Morocco,
Page 11
Cameroon, and South Africa) happens also to be the political and administrative capital of the countries. In general, it can be said
that ths share primate'^Sities make of the total urban population is
related to the existence of other important urban centres in the country.
For instance, in North Africa, it is only in Libya that the primate
city (Tripoli) contains more than 50 per.cent of the urban population.
The only other urban centre is Benghazi, which along with Tripoli are the.
dual capitals of the country, For all African countries, the private city which, had the lowest share of the urban population was Lagos, capital of Nigeria, where it-was estimated that in 1970 there were 24 centres of
100,000 inhabitants or more.
3k. The growth of the urban population, to a large extent, owes more to migration than to natural increase and this gives rise to several ... _•
demographic patterns : the first is the distortion of the general sex-ratio towards the ponderance of males, in areas of rapid urban growth. On the I'thor hand, in the older towns as well as in cities where there are good prospects for female employment, as in some cities in North and West Africa, the adult female population tends to be comparable in number to .
that of males in corresponding age groups, v .
(v), Economically active population
35. Variations in male activity rates are comparatively small3 56.8 per cent of males are economically active as against the world average of 58.3 par cent. On the other hand, participation i-ate for females vary over a" wide range and on the average only \i+ .5 per cent of tha African females w&re recorded as economically active, as against the 7/0 rid
average of '11-.2 per cent. For a number of African countries the reported . female participation rate is very low: 3 to 5 per cent, but this assessment must be tak^n with some caution since differences in definitions specially affect tha females who work as unpaid persons ir. household enterprises, .
36. The activity rates for the young (10-iif years), and the old (65 and
<;ver). similar to those of other developing areas of the world, are
generally higher (21«7 and 6ifa9 respectively) for the indigenous popilation than-th3 corresponding rates for the non-indigenous (3-5 per cent for age 10-14 and 57.5' T>eT cent for age group 65 and over) _i/e The male activity rates for the age group (i9-6\) are not different in Africa from the general pattern in developed countries and they ranged from 90 per cent in the' early ages, reach a peak (97) at ages 35-Vf> and then drop to 90 per cent in.the
age group 55-6^-. . ._'..'...
37. As indicated by the number of persons employed, agriculture is the most important economic sector in Africa. The proportion engaged in agriculture exceeds 60 per cent of the total economically active population in most African countries; the range being between 36 per cent in Libya and 97 VQT cent in Niger. Becav.se of the high proportion .of the labour, force engaged in agricul ture, a great part of which in subsistence agriculturej salaried workers form only p.. small percentage of the economically active population,
1/ United Nations, Demographic Aspects of Manpower. New York, 19^2,'Sales ■■■
No. 6-1.XIIIX).
E/CN.14./P0PA4
Page 12
1). ELEMENTS OF DEMO&RARilC GROWTH AND CHANGE IN AFRICA' . " - : (i) Fertility and Mortality
38. Although as shown earlier on statistics on births and deaths are defective, it has been possible using available and relatively accurate data to assess fertility and mortality levels and consequently the level of growth in the.continent. Both birth and death rates have been shown to be among the highest in .the world. . Crude birth rates in most of the countries lie in the region of !+} to k9, the average being k£ per thousand.
For the period 1965-70, the estimate of crude birth rate for African was
4-6.7 per thousand .population as against 33*8 for the world, j/ The gross reproduction rate (&RR) estimated for the period 1960-66 for all Africa:
was 3.0, 2/ and. the figures, for respective countries hovered around this.
Despite the generally high level of fertility observed, infertility obtains in parts of Central Africa and among nomadic populations,' It is suspected, that with growing sedentarization and improvement in the general level of living, -fertility might rise in these areas and further boost the general '
level of population growth in the continent.
39. Excluding the Island territories with relatively low mortality, the range of the crude death raue in the 1960s, also the" highest in the world, lies between ^k- for Africans in Rhodesia (1962) and 35 per "I000 population for Upper Volta (196O-61 )j/. For the continent as a.whole, the average death rate was estimated at 23 per 1000 during 19.60-66 as against a world average of 16 deaths per 1000 population. Life expectancy"also during 196O-66 was only M years. A later estimate of the crude death rate for the period 1965-70 wai; only, slightly lower than that for 1960-66 and was about 2.1 per thouiand population fo-- all Africa as against "i'+ per thousand for the world. 4/ The slight-drop is also paralleled by an estimated increase
in the expectation of life at birth from.4-1 years during 196O-66 to 4-3.3 years for 1965-70.
40. If any thing, the signs are that mortality, as a result of low cost but effective medicine imported from abroad and of better public health
programmes fostered by various.African governments, promises to decline faster than implied above. It is this tendency cowards declining mortality, which has already begun in some.places, that (in the face of rising or
constant fertility in the continent) constitutes the crux of the problem.
of rapid population growth rates, vrtiich in Africa has been rising and will continue to increase in the near future.. For the region as a whole, this rate, now ostimated at 2.4- per cent annually, will increase to 2,7 per cent around 1980. Africa's present rate of growth is second only to that , 1/World~Popula!:ion Prospects, .1965-85 as assessed in 1968.
2/ UMEC'A Demographic Handbook for Africa, Addis Ababa, 1968.
.£/ ECA, Demographic Handbook" i'or Africa; 1968: ppo 88-93.
United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects. 1965-85.
.as assessed in 1968. . . ■ " :.
Page 13
of Latin America, but will, according to present indications and projections,
exceed, it in the coming decades. .
M• If as already indicated abpve, the increase in population were accom panied by a commensurate .increase in productivity, then there would have been less concern shown about the problem. Africa, it is true to say, is . '.
not by.-sheer density ratios over populated. Nevertheless, it is also
true, as Carr-Saunders long indicated, that "Africa is an underdeveloped '/
continent; it is not underpopulated having regard to the resources of the native inhabitants, though it might accommodate without inconvenience a slightly more dense population in cerxain areas" \JK But such accommodation would necessarily depend on transforming the entire, scheme of African life.
The possibility of such transformation, including the crucial, one of altering the prevailing pattern of fertility depends on changing existing cultural values and social customs, and on fostering accelerated economiCj medical, and educational progress. From the medical angle> the number of infant . . deaths must be drastically reduced in order .to-make parents feel confident that .the few children they can have under a family planning programme have a good chance of survival. This is important for it is now becoming
increasingly clear that parents had in the past borne many children in order to make good the loss of those dead or likely to die due to some of the very
lethal causes of deaths in infancy. - , ,
k-2. Social values which are likely to impede the start of a decline in fertility are varied and deeply entrenched in the African way of life.
The prestige of having many children plus the economic value of children as helpers in the household have to be altered through, education, which also will enhance the status of African women. Such improved female social . status marked by better education and increased participation in employment will, inevitably, be.paralleled by lower fertility as already demonstrated by many studies in Africa.,■ Such studies show that improved opportunity in
education and employmant outside the home appear to be related to the adoption of small family ideals and the means.of achieving them.
43.. The-prevailing patterns of marriage, particularly the custom of early marriage among many African groups requires some attention.. Raising the legal age at marriage through legislation^ education, and training programmes which hold people back from early marriage until they complete thsir training and education might in the long run influence the level ,of fertility, : assuming that the tempo of fertility is not altered during the reproductive experience'of 3uch persons who marry late. As for polygamy, still recognized and practised especially in West Africa, its impact on the level of female, fertility is debatable and opinion remains divided on whether it depresses,' the level of fertility or not. Nevertheless, it seems almost certain that a decline in the number and frequency of polygynous marriages will, at least, depress ,the level of.male fertility, and probably increase that of females.
j/ Carr-Saunders, 0p& cit., po 306.
Page
l&. The decline of .polygamy will be speeded up by education and enhanced social and economic status. Its current pattern of occurrence varies not only between rural and urban areas; with the latter having fewer than the former, but also among social classes,'the higher"the socio-economic status, the less frequent is polygamy practised,. Also--likely to influence the
decline of polygamy is the emergence-of new forms of marriages in various places. Civil'and church marriages are becoming increasingly important and are more l.Ucely to discourage polygamy than'customary or traditional" " ■
marriages. ' . . ■ • ■
■ (ii) Migration and Urbanization as factors of Population Change V5. In some way3 the problems of miration and urbanisation in African ' development is a continuation of the initial problem of rapid natural - increase.. As a result of the differential distribution of resources, " : amenities and employment opportunities, a redistribution of the ever
growing number of persons takes place, the major flow being towards urban ■ areas where the desired social and economic advantages abound more than in
the rural areas. " ' ,
k£. International migration is also influenced to a large extent by
economic, social and political conditions in the countries from where migrants move. Although the problems of international movements between African
countries (barring a few cases in West Africa) are not as acute as those of internal movements between rural and uroan are&s, it, seems important-to emphasize that the need for foreign skilled labour could be net by policies favouring selective migration. In this regard, African countries could enter bilateral agreement on tho exchange of skilled, technical and
profession^".'- labour, as this might lead tc some saving in labour-unit costs, especially whore labour has co be drawn from more distant-parts of the world.
47. With the advent of nationalism and the attainment of sovereignty in : most parts of Africa, inter-country movements appear to havo come under
greater control in recent years, even though the existence of long unguarded borders in many African countries still negate efforts in this direction.
US. Pronounced seasonal labour movements have been talcing place in a number of areas.' In West Africa, from inland countries like Mali, Upper Volta, and Niger, and from the northern part of Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria, many migrants move generally in a southward direction during'the dry season from October until April to more developed'rural and urban areas, and then return'home to cultivate their village farmsa In Central Africa, people also move seasonally to industrial centres, which in the cass of Zambia is the Copperbelt', Seasonal movements in the pact between Malawi, Zambia, Rhodesia" and Tanzania, in a criss-cross fashion, also took place. Some of
these countries, including Botswana, Malawi and Swaziland, still provide
South Africa with migrant labour,, - ■
Page 15
k9, In' some prtrts .of .Africa,. governments have had to cope with the problem. ' of administering"nomads who moveaboUt not only within the respective . • ' countries but also.in and out :across:'national boundaries. The biggest of ._
such movements are1 between Ethiopia and Somalia, between Kenya and Somalia ':
and between Mauritania and Morocco. A/ ' ' ' "' '':'■ ' 50. But the crucial movement causing great social and1economic concern all over Africa at present is that associated with the size and growth of the urban, population. At.a rather fast and alarming rate, people are . '■
increasingly gravitating.from.rural areas to the1 urban centres, especially", the'very large primate cities, whose stature and.power of attracting ■ migrants.have been encouraged and sustained by nascent post-independence' economic, administrative and political development's in Africa. In some countries, the primate cities!are usually the only large or very.large urban centres in-the country, the others being very small.- Examples of this in 1960 were found in Angola'and Mozambique each'of which had one city of more1 than 100,000 inhabitants." ' : : '■ :''' ' ' ■';" ' ;
51. The main problem of.African urbanization,for planning purposes lies, however, more with the rapid rate and not so much with the'relative level : - of urbanization. Africa's growth rate of urban population is one of the
highest at'5.Vper cent'yearly as against 3.2 per cent'for the whole world'.
In many cases, the annual rate of" growth for the very large African cities far exceeds the above rate, reaching 10.9 per.cent in Lusaka, Zambia, during ' 1958-63 and 11.8 per "cent during 1963-68. 2/ ^On a continental basis/the growth of localities having more 'than 100,000'inhabitants is 8.6^per cent annually; this rate is more than four times the annual rate of population ' growth in Africa between. 1950 and 196O. _y
52. But Africa is the least urbanized of the world's major.regions. Compared with the world average of 25 per.cent of its population in localities of
20,000 or more persons, Africa had only 13.per cent in i960. Also, the proportion of i^s'population in cities containing 100,000 or more persons in the same period was only 9 per'cent, as compared with a world average
of 16 per cent. ' ' . ■ ■ \
53. The rate of urbanization vary considerably between African countries.
In 1960, the country with the highest percentage in towns (20,000 or more) was United Arab Re.public (38*2) .followed by Algeria (26.5). For major
sub-regions: West Africa had a rate of 12 per cent, Central Africa 8 per cent'andEast Africa 5 per cent. . ■■..-■ ..
j/ D.Ka Ghansah, "The, Volume of International Migration in Africa", IUSSP
Conference, London 1969- ' "
2/ iJoxiades Associates, Report on the Development of Greater Lusaka, 1969?
pp. 90-91. .■ ■ , . ...
3/ "Size and Grov/th of Urban Population iri Africa",. (iS/CN.Iif/CAS.6/3)- ■
Page 16
5if. Apart from the rapid rate of urban growth, the degree of urban concen tration is another aspect of the problem of urbanization in Africa. Reference has already "been made above to the existence of primate cities, which
sometimes exist alone, with" no others of comparable size or importance in the country. Basically about 68 per cent of the people living in tovms of Africa are in the cities, and so there are also few. towns of inter mediate size in the region.
55. Recent projections made at the secretariat of the Economic Commission for Africa indicate.that the number of people living in towns of 20,000 or more persons in size, .'estimated at 50 million.in 19&5 is likely to increase, even on a moderately conservative basis, to 100million in 1980. If and when this happens it will mean a worsening of-the present problems facing . many African countries. Apparently, the current failure of the provision
of social.amenities (jobs, housing, schools, hospitals, etc.) to keep pace with the growing demand for such services in the towns will continue, with the attendant social disorganization and deterioration of the environment
and standard of living.
Eo POPULATION GROWTH AND SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
56. Accelerating population growth in Africa may aggravate the problem of capital shortage, which is one of the most important obstacles to economic development in African countries. The higher the rate of population growth, the greater the proportion of capital expended on the consumption of goods' and the provision of social services and/ therefore, the less the proportion
put to production. , . .
57. A high rate of population growth is sometimes cited as a stimulus to economic development. But, "while in a well-developed dynamic economy the demand for capital investments may serve as a stimulus to continuing
economic growth, the case of the under-developed is different. For most of them it is difficult to save and invest enough from their meagre annual income to permit economic development to proceed at a satisfactory pace, even without rapid population growth. It is true that if these countries can industrialize and better utilize their human as well as their natural resources, some of them at least, will undoubtedly benefit in the long run from a substantially larger population. But even where a large population . would be advantageous in the long run economic progress will be hindered, if numbers increase so rapidly as to put an excessive strain upon the
economy". \J The point is that for economic development, the rate of growth of the population of a country is more relevant than its size and, as it has been observed earlier, the rate of growth of population of African, countries is accelerating and would, if unretarded, put the region ahead of others by having the highest rate of growth in a decade's time.
\J Report of the World Social Situation. (United Nations publication; Sales
No. 1957.IV.3), Chapter II. : *~~
Page 17
58. The problems relating to the general inadequacy of.the public , .:
infrastructure to meet the growing needs of the population in.urban areas, .;
and the growing demand for education and employment have received attention in a number of African development plans. For example in Kenya, it has, been shown.that if fertility is not reduced, in the next 25 years, the .. ..
number of illiterate children will double even with, all the efforts that, the Government could exert. The policy statement on population of Ghana mentions that if the number of births could be cut by 2 per cent each year, there could be allmost two million fewer in 1985, over 3 million fewer- . children.in 2000, thus freeing funds for other types of investment and also increasing the proportion of children who can be educated.
59. The situation, in which most of the African countries find-themselves,.
is typified by the following statement drawn from the 1966-70 Ugandan . ■ . development plan : "Uganda must keep moving in order to stay.in the same ;.;- place. Growth in output and employment of nearly 3 par cent per annum' . ..
is necessary inorder to maintain per capita standards, and hence for _ ■ ..
increasing per capita income an even higher rate of grovrth has to be achieved".
F# POPULATION POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES
60. The General Assembly of the United Nations unanimously adopted in 1966 the Resolution 2211(XXI) which recognized the sovereignty of nations in formulating and promoting their own population policies with due regard to the principle that the size of the family should be according to the free choice of each individual family. In 1963, the Economic and Social Council adopted the Resolution 13V7(XLV) which recognized the importance of giving appropriate attention to the inter-relations of economic, social and
demographic factors in formulating development programmes and the need for the United Nations and its agencies to assist the developing countries, upon request, in dealing with problems arising from the current and prospective population trends, and in formulating and promoting national policies of their own choice in the field of population.
61. The Conference of African Planners, meeting in Addis Ababa in directed the attention of African Governments to the need for evolving
population policies. The regional meeting on "Technical and Social Problems of Urbanization", recommended in 1969, that the attention of African Planners should be drawn to the need of African,countries to adopt individual
population policies in order to reduce the effects of rapid rates of grovrth of total and urban population. The seminar on the "Application.of
Demographic Data and Analysis to Development Planning", held in Addis Ababa, June 1969, recommended not only that the population factor be an integral
part of the development process, but also, whenever necessary, family planning be. used to supplement economic factors aimed at raising the level
of the welfare of the people.
E/CN.12+/POPA4 Page 1,8
62. To date, seven African countries, U6R, Morocco, Nigeria, Tunisia, ■ Kenya, Ghana and Botswana have official population policies which aim at
checking population grovrth by reducing fertility through family-planning.
In several countries, voluntary family planning organizations have been set up and expanded with the support of the International Planned ; Parenthood Federation and the Co-operation and sometimes financial backing
of the African governments concerned, * , ,
63. Evaluation i.- an essential tool for assessment and further improvement of existing family planning programnje. Compilation and analyses of
statistics of the number of persons accepting methods of contraception and their characteristics are essential for the evaluation of the degree of resppnse to the programme and for figuring out the major causes for
non-response. The use of family planning clinics, such as the one developed by the Kenya Family Planning Programme, may be used for this purpose. ■ The overall evaluation of the effect of the programme on the level of
fertility could be done through fertility surveys' in the areas where' -
t>rogrammes are operating. . .
Annex
ANNEX
Classification of the African countries by sub-region WEST AFRICA
Nigeria Ghana
Upper Volta
Mali
Ivory Coast Senegal Guinea Niger
Sierra Leone Dahomey Togo Liberia Mauritania
Portuguese G-uinea Gambia
Cape Verde Islands St. Helena
NORTH AFRICA
United Arab Republic Sudan
Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya
Spanish North Africa Spanish Sahara
CENTRAL AFRICA Republic of Zaire Cameroon
Chad Burundi
Central African Republic People's Republic of Congo Gabon
Equatorial Guinea Sao Tome and Principe
EAST AFRICA Ethiopia Tanzania Kenya Uganda Madagascar Malawi Zambia Somalia Mauritius Reunion
Comoro Islands
French Territory of Afars and Issas
Seychelles
REST OF .AFRICA
Republic of South Africa Mozambique
Angola
Southern Rhodesia Lesotho
Namibia Botswana Swaziland
