Evaluation of mitigation effect from climate-change adapted forests
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(2) Evaluation of mitigation effect from climate-change adapted forests Loustau D. Martel S., Picart D., Achat D., Moisy C., Moreaux V.. [email protected]. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(3) Adapted to … what ? Data: CDIAC/GCP/IPCC/Fuss et al 2014. Références. The future of the forests environment (atmosphere, soil, hydrology) is not determined Forest management may rely upon: - (i) versatility: optimal combination of forest alternatives - (ii) diversity : species and provenances mixture ,… - (iii) resilience : plasticity, Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(4) Criteria for biogeochemical and climatic sustainability Negative or neutral radiative forcing Radiative balance Convective heat fluxes Greenhouse effect. « biophysical forcing » « biophysical forcing » « biogeochemical forcing ». Negative ( C ) or neutral (N, P etc.) mass balance Carbon Water Nutrients. Of the whole forest – wood products chain. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(5) Concerting management alternatives (projects: FOREVER, MACCAC, Evafora, Forêts-21). Management alternatives. 1. Managers, stakeholders. 3. Users. Climate scenarios. Other data (soil, inventories). Calcul. Simulations 8x8 km 2000-2100. Web Server. 2. Web services and model chain GO+ Biljou CAT GALES FWI. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(6) Forest management alternatives for biomass production Species selection. • Coniferous: Pinus p. , Pseudotsuga m., Pinus s. Pinus n. • Broadleaved : Fagus, Quercus,. Soil and stand management: • • • •. Soil preparation Stand regeneration Thinning regime Rotation duration. Species and age mixtures (Agroforestry). Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(7) Predictive tool: process model of Forest WP chain Go+CAT Forcings SW. LW. H2O. Management: soil, vegetation, trees. CO2. Foliage Branches. Radiative & energy balances Plant water (ψ leaf). Photosynthesis. NPP Allocation. Soil water. Deep runoff. Harvest Mortality. Stem. Respiration Phenology Growth Senescence. Tap root. Soil C input. Coarse roots Small roots. DPM, RPM. Fine roots. BIO HUM. Groundwater. Mineralisation Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(8) Go+ model in short Vegetation • Hourly time step / ha spatial unit, • 2 layers : Sun–Shade / Farquhar’ – Jarvis’ – Hydraulics – • Phenology, Allocation, Growth, Mortality. Soil • Roth-C, • 3 Soil layers, • Bucket model + Groundwater. Management • Soil preparation, • Vegetation management, • Tree stand management Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(9) Management alternatives – 1. European Beech Standards. Intensive (« Biomass and Energy »). Standard (« Timber »). Self Thinning (« theoretical reference »). Target D = 60 cm Revolution = 10 y Competition Index = 0.35. D = 80 cm R = 15 y C = 0.35. Age = 150y R =3y C = 1.0. Historical climate. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(10) Management Alternatives – 2. Coniferous Standards. Douglas Fir. Pinus pinaster Intensive (« Biomass and Energy »). ha-1 t C ×500 400. BIOMASS. 59.7 tC.ha-1. 300 200. Standard (« Timber »). 100 0. 100. 200. 300. 400. SOIL. 1980. 86.2 tC.ha-1. 2000. 2020. 2040. 2060. 2080. 2100. (Historical climate) Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(11) 2000-2100 radiative forcing of management alternatives at regional level Results 1.. • Aquitaine French Region (1Mha) • Impacts : • •. Albedo (8x8 km) (SW ↓ RCP,s α predicted by GO+, monthly τatm from NASA) Biogenic carbon sequestration. •. Fossil carbon. in situ: soil, tree and vegetation biomass C stored in 8 wood products categories. Forest operations. Products transformations. •. (GO+ model) (CAT model). (Gonzalez Garcia et al. 2014). (CAT model). Fossil carbon substitution f from 0.5 (energy) to 3.0 (timber). (Sathre et O’Connor, 2010). •. Attenuation of atmospheric variations by Earth model (Forster et al. 2007). •. Radiative forcing of CO2= f (concentration en CO2). (Boucher et al. 2007). Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(12) 1. Carbon stocks in situ and in wood products 8.E+07. RCP 2.6. Aquitaine Pine C stocks (tC). Soil -Standard Soil - intensive Biomass - Standard Biomass - Intensive. 4.E+07. Harvested products Standard Harvested products Intensive. 0.E+00. 2000. 2020. 2040. 2060. 2080. 2100. Soil and biomass stocks depleted in intensive aternatives. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(13) 2. Radiative forcing is negative only if substitution is accounted for.. (W.m-2). Standard. Intensive. RCP 2.6. 1.E-03. 0.E+00. -1.E-03. Wood products & Forest. Substitution. Albedo. NEE. Total. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(14) 3. The overall radiative forcing of standard management is cooler in colder scenarios 2.E-04. 0.E+00. RCP 2.6 -2.E-04. RCP 8.5. Difference in Radiative Forcing, Intensive - Standard (W.m-2). 2.E-04. 0.E+00. -2.E-04. 2000. 2050 Harvested Products. NEE. 2100 Albédo. Substitution. Total. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(15) 50. 10. 40. 20. 30. 30. 20. 40. 10. 50. 0. 60. B 60. 300. 50. 250. 40. 200. 30. 150. 20. 100. 10. 50. 0. N outputs (g m-2). 0. N stocks in trees (g m-2). 60. Soil organic N (g m-2). • Experiments at stand scale • Pinus, Fagus, Pseudotsuga • 4 to 8 management schemes tested. Pp-I2 / RCP2.6 / initial age class = 1 yr. A. Understorey N stocks (g m-2). 4. Dynamics of nutrients stocks in soil and biomass for different management alternatives predicted by Go+ (V. 26.51).. 0. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(16) 5. Biomass harvested and nutrients export over a 95 year period:. RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6. Intensification has a cost !. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(17) Few lessons from recent and ongoing R&D projects with ANR, ADEME, CNRS • The best management scheme is the one that can be implemented by managers • Intensification has environmental costs (climate, water, nutrients) • Climate-management interaction is substantial. Thank you for attention Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(18) Acknowledgements Recent projects having supported the Go+ model development: - ORACLE (French ANR, N. De Noblet, CNRS, coord.) - MACCAC (French ANR, O. Roupsard, CIRAD, coord.) - Forever (CNRS, A. Dufour, coord.) - Evafora (Ademe, O. Picard coord.) - PROFOUND Cost action (COST, C. Reyer coord.). Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(19) Evaluation (1/4). Fluxes and stocks of energy, COLLELONGO SITE. C and water.. LE BRAY SITE. Rn, λE. NEE. Basal area LAI. Soil water Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(20) Evaluation (2/4) Daily fluxes at FLUXNET Sites. Statistics : • R², RMSE. • Systematic & Unsystematic errors. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(21) Evaluation (3/4) Growth, production and soil groundwater trajectories. 1. Coniferous. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(22) Evaluation (4/4) Growth and production trajectories. 2. Broadleaved. Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
(23) Acknowledgements Recent projects having supported the Go+ model development: - ORACLE (French ANR, N. De Noblet, CNRS, coord.) - MACCAC (French ANR, O. Roupsard, CIRAD, coord.) - Forever (CNRS, A. Dufour, coord.) - Evafora (Ademe, O. Picard coord.) - PROFOUND Cost action (COST, C. Reyer coord.) Data used for calibration or evaluation : - European carbon data cluster (L3 and L4 data from FR-Hes, FR-LBr, IT-Col, DK-Sor) - Fluxnet (Vancouver Douglas fir chronosequence, A.T. Black) - ISIMIP database (Solling, Collelongo, Soroe, Le Bray sites) - GIS Coop de données (Pompogne site, D. Merzeau) - INRA long-term forest inventory data (Vielle site, C. Meredieu et al.) - Forest Soil database (V. Badeau, INRA Nancy) - Historical series of meteorological data (Météo-France). Task 38 – Workshop , 7 Nov. 2017, Angers, France.
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