Tools for river basin management

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Thesis

Reference

Tools for river basin management

COOLS, Jan

Abstract

Water resources management can be challenging when confronted with pollution, water shortage, floods, water-related diseases, climate change and variability. In this thesis, it is assessed how the management of a multi-functional river basin can be facilitated through the development and testing of analytical tools in data-poor and data-rich context. A variety of tools and strategies is developed and tested on a variety of stakeholder selected themes, namely: •Cost-effective improvement of water quality in the Nete river (Belgium) •An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt •Integration of human health in wetland management in the Inner Niger Delta (Mali). This thesis arguments that the development of tools can support integration and cooperation between experts and decision-makers. If there is a perceived lack of data and capacity, besides questioning the tool complexity, equally important is the process used for model development and stakeholder involvement.

COOLS, Jan. Tools for river basin management. Thèse de doctorat : Univ. Genève, 2012, no. Sc. 4473

URN : urn:nbn:ch:unige-260210

DOI : 10.13097/archive-ouverte/unige:26021

Available at:

http://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:26021

Disclaimer: layout of this document may differ from the published version.

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UNIVERSITE DE GENEVE FACULTE DES SCIENCES enviroSPACE: Spatial Predictions and Analyses in Complex Environment Prof. Anthony Lehmann C3i: Climatic Change and Climate Impacts Prof. Martin Beniston

Tools for

River Basin Management

THESE

présentée à la Faculté des Sciences de l’Université de Genève pour obtenir le grade de Docteur ès Sciences,

mention Sciences de l’Environnement par

Jan COOLS De

Gand (Belgique)

Thèse N° 4473

GENEVE 2012

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Figure 1.1 The River Basin Management Cycle (based on European Communities, 2003a,b, Zsuffa et al., 2012, Johnston et al., 2012, Rebelo et al., 2012) ... 2 Figure 1.2 River basin management is continuous, evolving and dynamic process (based on UNESCO, 2009, Zsuffa et al., 2012) ... 3 Figure 3.1 Location of the Grote Nete study area in Flanders, Belgium ... 27 Figure 3.2 Output of SWAT for total nitrogen (mgN/l) and observations of total nitrogen and flow (m³/s) ... 29 Figure 3.3 Overview of the input-output and coupling between SWAT and ECM ... 34 Figure 3.4 Relationship between in-stream concentration and emission reduction for total nitrogen (summer half-annual averages). The horizontal lines indicate the WFD standards: 4 mgN/l for good status and 3 mgN/L for very good status ... 37 Figure 3.5 Relationship between in-stream concentration and emission reduction for nitrate (90%ile). The horizontal line indicate the WFD standards for very good status (2 mgN/l). The good status is already reached ... 37 Figure 3.6 Marginal cost abatement function for total nitrogen. The vertical gray line

indicates the ‘good status’ standard. The letters refer to measures targeting both point and diffuse sources as listed in Table 3.1 ... 39 Figure 4.1 Location of case study Wadi Watir in the Sinai peninsula of Egypt. Nuweiba is

located at the outlet of Wadi Watir. The known tourist city Sharm El-Sheikh is located in the southernmost point of the Sinai peninsula ... 49 Figure 4.2 Distribution of rainfall and storm events from 1979-2006. ... 49 Figure 4.3 Wadi Watir: topography, subbasins and rain gauges ... 50 Figure 4.4 International road running through the canyon, close to the outlet wadi Watir.

LEFT: normal state in dry conditions; RIGHT: damage resulting from the flash flood of 24 October 2008 ... 51 Figure 4.5 The chain of components that forms the early warning system ... 53 Figure 4.6 Schematic view of the hydrological processes considered at the catchment ... 57 Figure 4.7 Selection of 3-hourly rainfall estimates from TRMM for the events in December 2000, October 2002, October 2004 and January 2010. Images are extracted with NASA’s Giovanni (giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov) ... 65 Figure 4.8 Rainfall forecast by WRF for the January 2010 flash flood. Shown is the cumulative rainfall at the end of the rain event (23h on January, 18, 2010) ... 66 Figure 4.9 forecasted and measured rainfall in 8 stations for the January 2010 event (ranked by measured rainfall). ... 68 Figure 4.10 forecasted and measured rainfall in 3 stations for the January 2010 event ... 69 Figure 4.11 forecasted and measured rainfall for the October 2008 event (Sorah gauge)... 70 Figure 4.12 Forecasted discharge at the outlet based on forecasted rainfall; The peak

discharge corresponds to an observed flood depth of 1.5m at the outlet of Wadi Watir ... 72

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Figure 4.13 Modelled infiltration and transmission losses for the 2010 flash flood ... 73 Figure 5.1 The Inner Niger Delta located in Mali, West Africa... 84 Figure 5.2 Distributional range of access to sanitation in the Inner Niger Delta, based on

CPS/MS (2007) ... 85 Figure 5.3 Methodology to integrate human health in into wetland management ... 89 Figure 5.4 Spider diagram showing the feasibility and sustainability for implementation of the management option ‘greywater sewers’; The bold black line is the threshold for an

adequate adaptive capacity and feasibility (at the least the score ‘good’) ... 92 Figure 6.1 Optimal model complexity linked to data availability ... 99

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Table 3.1 Measures included in the optimization algorithm. A distinction between basic and supplementary measures is made according to the WFD definition. The index letter is

referred to in the marginal cost abatement function (Fig. 3.6) ... 31 Table 3.2 Scenarios applied for emission reductions ... 35 Table 3.3 Flemish standards for total nitrogen and nitrate (CIW, 2008) ... 35 Table 3.4 Required emission reduction percentages to achieve the WFD standards. “NO”

means the standard cannot be achieved ... 36 Table 3.5 Sensitivity of in-stream concentration to an emission reduction for total nitrogen (in mgN l-1 / kgN reduction)... 36 Table 4.1 Historic flash flood events in Wadi Watir and correspondence to rainfall events: 1 3 operational rain gauges in Wadi Watir until 2007, afterwards 9 more gauges are installed; 2 Range of satellite rainfall estimates by TRMM (product 3B42(V6)) ... 63 Table 4.2 Qualitative comparison of the available rainfall data from in-situ measurements, WRF forecasts and satellite estimates for rain events since 2002 ... 67 Table 4.3 Overview of type of storms of Wadi Watier in the period 1987-2010 ... 71 Table 5.1 Overview of environmental options for diarrhoea, schistosomiasis and malaria for cities in or at wetlands. ... 81 Table 5.2 Selected impact criteria and indicators for human health ... 87

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i

Abstract

The concept of River Basin Management (RBM) asks for knowledge-based water management and is demanding on human resources and information. Understanding the challenges facing individual catchments and understanding the appropriate management responses to these challenges has to be based on sound information. This not only includes basic ‘monitoring’ information on state, drivers and pressures, but also the analytical tools to interpret these into determining which measures and instruments need to be applied where and when. A major problem for policy-makers is to obtain reliable and relevant information upon which to base decisions. This information may be provided by the scientific community, but may and should also come from the public opinion.

The centre piece of RBM is the River Basin Management Plan (RBMP), consisting of 1) a multi- disciplinary characterization addressing the biophysical and socio-economic status, trends and related drivers and pressures, a stakeholder analysis and the institutional and policy context; 2) a set of agreed priorities and objectives and 3) a selection of management options that need to be implemented in order to achieve the set objectives.

A major problem for policy-makers is to obtain reliable and relevant information on the multiple values, uses and pressures on the water resources at river basin scale. In this thesis, it is assessed how river basin management can be facilitated through the development and testing of analytical tools in data- poor and data-rich context, with a focus on the selection of the most appropriate tools and best management options to address the context-specific challenges in river basin management. A variety of tools and strategies is developed and tested on a variety of stakeholder selected themes, namely:

• Cost-effective improvement of water quality in the Nete river (Belgium)

• An early warning system for flash floods in hyper-arid Egypt

• Integration of human health in wetland management in the Inner Niger Delta (Mali)

This thesis arguments that important elements in the choice of the most appropriate tool for RBM are data availability, the needs of decision-makers in terms of content, capacity and required level of detail and scale. If there is a perceived lack of data and capacity, besides questioning the tool complexity, equally important is the process used for model development and stakeholder involvement. It is found that the development of tools, rather than the outcomes, can support integration and cooperation between experts and decision-makers. Rapid assessment methods can reduce the efforts for the assessment of state and drivers of change while enhancing stakeholder involvement.

For the selection of the "best solution" to address challenges in RBM, two approaches have been used.

For the Belgian case study, computer-aided optimization (mixed integer linear programming) resulted in a ranking of management options according to the cost-effectiveness to achieve surface water quality targets. The outcomes are visualised in stepwise "marginal abatement cost" curves. The framework is based on the coupling of two models: the hydrological water quality model SWAT and an economic optimization model (Environmental Costing Model, ECM). Input data for the models are amongst others a detailed inventory of emissions (about 15,000 sources) and a database of measures across all nutrient-

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ii insufficient selection criterion. Cost-effectiveness values are relative, and might have high propagated uncertainty.

For the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, a framework to assess the appropriateness of management options in data-poor context is developed based on comparative multi-criteria analysis. The framework is largely stakeholder-driven and integrates impact, feasibility, institutional capacity and trade-off analysis (potential conflicts, winners and losers of a management option). The major barrier for effective wetland management in the Inner Niger Delta was found to be the lack of understanding of what the important issues were, across sectors, and the required institutional capacity to implement effective wetland management. The process of defining and scoring criteria was very important in identifying the range of issues to be considered. Stakeholders in the Inner Niger Delta stressed the importance to assess the feasibility and robustness of management options, and placed less importance to effectiveness and investment cost. In data-poor context, where uncertainty in scoring of criteria is likely to be high, but is not explicitly assessed, ranking of management options are of doubtful validity. The presented analysis is appropriate to support discussion and mutual understanding between stakeholders/sectors rather than actual decision-making.

In the Egyptian case study, an early warning system for flash floods has been developed in the Red Sea Mountains (Sinai Peninsula). The presented EWS is the first operational early warning system for flash floods in the Arab world. The lack of quantitative data necessitated the use of alternative sources of information for the development and calibration of the EWS, namely remote sensing and local stakeholders' knowledge. A set of essential parameters has been identified for flash flood risk management under data-poor conditions. It was found that the effectiveness of an EWS is only partially determined by technological performance. A strong institutional capacity is equally important, especially skilled staff to operate and maintain the system and clear communication pathways and emergency procedures in case of an upcoming disaster.

In conclusion, this thesis provides lessons learnt from various case studies to facilitate the uptake of tools from the research community in operational water management. The most pressing requirement for improved cooperation is the exchange of information in a timely manner and format that policy makers and the public can readily understand and use. Early and sustained stakeholder involvement is essential for effective river basin management. Yet, a careful strategy has to be developed in order to avoid dropout, delays in decision-making and high transaction costs.

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Résumé

Le concept de gestion des bassins fluviaux (RBM) exige une gestion de l'eau fondée sur les connaissances, des ressources humaines et de l'information. La compréhension des enjeux de chaque bassin et la maîtrise des solutions de gestion adaptées à ces défis doit être fondée sur des informations solides. Cela inclut non-seulement l’évaluation de l'état, des facteurs de changements et des pressions sur le système, mais aussi les outils d'analyse permettant le choix des mesures de gestion adéquates. Un problème majeur pour les décideurs consiste à obtenir des informations fiables et pertinentes sur lesquelles fonder leurs décisions. Cette information peut être fournie par la communauté scientifique, mais peut et doit aussi venir de l'opinion publique.

La pièce maîtresse de la RBM est le Plan de Gestion du Bassin Versant (RBMP: “River Basin Management Plan”), constitué de 1) une caractérisation multi-disciplinaire abordant le statut biophysique et socio- économique, ses tendances et les facteurs de changements et pressions associés; une analyse des parties prenantes, du cadre institutionnel et du contexte politique; 2) un ensemble de priorités et d'objectifs convenus et 3) une sélection des options de gestion qui doivent être mises en œuvre afin d'atteindre les objectifs fixés.

Dans cette thèse, la possibilité d’améliorer la gestion par bassin par la mise au point et l'essai d'outils d'analyse des données est évaluée dans des contextes contrastés pauvres et riches en données. L'accent est mis sur la sélection des outils les plus appropriés et les meilleures options de gestion pour relever les défis spécifiques au contexte du basin étudié. Une variété d'outils et de stratégies est développé et testé sur une variété de thèmes ayant été sélectionnés par les parties prenantes des sites étudiés, à savoir:

• Analyse Coût-Efficacité de l’amélioration de la qualité de l'eau de la rivière Nete (Belgique)

• Système d'alerte aux crues subites en région hyper-aride (Egypte)

• Intégration de la santé humaine dans la gestion des zones humides dans le Delta Intérieur du Niger (Mali)

Cette thèse souligne que les éléments importants dans le choix des outils les plus appropriés pour la RBM sont la disponibilité des données, les besoins des décideurs, la capacité et le niveau de détail requis, et l'échelle d’étude. S'il y a un manque de données et de capacités, en plus de la remise en cause de la complexité possible de l'outil, il est également important d’étudier le processus utilisé pour l'élaboration du modèle et pour l'implication des parties prenantes. On constate que le développement d'outils, plutôt que l’analyse des résultats, permet de mieux prendre en compte l'intégration et la coopération entre les experts et les décideurs. Les méthodes d'évaluation rapides permettent de réduire les efforts de l'évaluation de l'état et des facteurs de changement tout en améliorant la participation des parties prenantes.

Pour le choix de la «meilleure solution» permettant de relever les défis de la RBM, deux approches ont été utilisées. Pour l'étude de cas de la Belgique, l'optimisation assistée par ordinateur (« mixed integer

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iv en étudiants les courbes d’abattement des coûts marginaux. Le cadre d’analyse est basé sur le couplage de deux modèles: le modèle hydrologique SWAT de qualité des eaux, et un modèle d'optimisation économique (ECM). Le rapport coût-efficacité s'est révélée être un critère de sélection important, mais insuffisant. Les valeurs obtenues de coût-efficacité restent relatives, et pourraient propager une grande incertitude.

Pour le Delta Intérieur du Niger au Mali, un cadre d’analyse permettant d’évaluer la pertinence des options de gestion dans un contexte pauvre en données est développé sur la base d’une analyse comparative multicritère. Le cadre est en grande partie axé sur les intervenants et intègre des analyses de l'impact, de la faisabilité, de la capacité institutionnelle et des compromis possibles (conflits potentiels, gagnants et perdants d'une option de gestion). Le principal obstacle à la gestion efficace des zones humides dans le Delta Intérieur du Niger s’est révélé être le manque de compréhension sur les questions importantes dans tous les secteurs d’activité, et la capacité institutionnelle requise pour la mise en en œuvre d’une gestion efficace des zones humides. Le processus de définition et des critères de notation était très important pour identifier l'éventail des questions à prendre en considération. Les parties prenantes dans le Delta Intérieur du Niger ont souligné l'importance d'évaluer la faisabilité et la robustesse des options de gestion, et accordent moins d'importance à la rentabilité de l'investissement.

Dans les contextes pauvres en données où l'incertitude dans la notation des critères est susceptible d'être élevée, sans être néanmoins explicitement évaluée, le classement des options de gestion demeure d'une validité douteuse. L'analyse présentée a permis de favoriser la compréhension mutuelle et les discussions entre acteurs / secteurs plutôt que la prise réelle de décisions.

Dans l'étude de cas en Egypte, un système d'alerte précoce (EWS : « Early Warning System » pour les crues subites a été développé dans les montagnes de la Mer Rouge (péninsule du Sinaï). Le EWS proposé est le premier système opérationnel d'alerte précoce pour les inondations dans le monde arabe. Le manque de données quantitatives a nécessité l'utilisation d'autres sources d'information pour le développement et l'étalonnage des stations d'alerte, telles que les données de télédétection et les connaissances des parties prenantes locales. Un ensemble de paramètres essentiels a été identifié pour la gestion des risques de crues subites dans des conditions pauvres en données. Il a été constaté que l'efficacité d'un système d'alerte précoce n'est que partiellement déterminé par la performance technologique. Une bonne capacité institutionnelle est tout aussi importante, particulièrement un personnel bien formé pour exploiter et entretenir le système, des voies de communication claires, et des procédures d'urgence bien établies en cas de catastrophe.

En conclusion, cette thèse fournit des enseignements tirés des différentes études de cas afin de faciliter l’utilisation des outils développé par la communauté scientifique pour la gestion opérationnelle de l’eau.

Le besoin le plus urgent pour améliorer la coopération est l'échange d'informations en temps voulu et dans un format que les décideurs politiques et le grand public peut facilement comprendre et utiliser. La participation précoce des parties prenantes est essentielle à la gestion efficace des bassins fluviaux.

Pourtant, une stratégie prudente doit être adoptée afin d'éviter les abandons, les retards dans la prise de décision et les coûts de transaction élevés.

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Acknowledgments

It has been a long journey. I sailed on the widest rivers, escaped from sand storms, was hit by the volcanic ash of Eyjafjallajökull and managed my way through the labyrinth of European projects. My journey around the world took slightly more than 40 days (a decade), but I am now finally Dr. Cool.

I would like to express my gratitude to all that have supported and inspired me in any respect during the journey to complete this thesis. Some travel mates joined me during the whole journey: Dr. Fred Hattermann, Dr. Ann Van Griensven en Dr. Istvan Zsuffa and many members of my family and friends, not in the least for the frequent babysitting. Special gratitude goes to my wife Dr. hilde Breesch and kids Lina and Daan and my closest family Pa, Agnes, Moeke, Vake, Greet, Dirk, Laura, Simon and Anton, Rigo, Jeanne, Dr. Liesbeth & Dries and Jo & Dr. Katleen. I greatly appreciated the presence and support of my good friends: Dr. Sake & Eva, Frederic & Katrien, Dr. Joris & Dorien, Sammy & Elke (almost Dr.), Dr.

Eugène & Lien, Peter, Natasja & Danil, Helena (almost Dr.) & Matthias, Bram, Dr. Roeland & Yessica.

I furthermore would like to express my gratitude to my supervisors Prof. Anthony Lehmann and Prof.

Martin Beniston for the opportunity to complete my thesis. And the jury members to critically review this thesis: Dr. Fred Hattermann, Dr. Sylvie Morardet and Dr. Geraldine Pflieger. It is a pleasure to thank the collegues at the University of Brussels, where I started my journey and learned skills to survive the world of water. Special thanks go to Prof. Florimond De Smedt, Prof. Willy Bauwens, Prof. Okke Batelaan, Boud Verbeiren (almost Dr.) and Prof. Philippe Quevauviller (double Dr.). This journey would furthermore not have been possible without the support of collegues of ANTEA group (previously named Soresma), especially Dr. Marc Huygens, Tom D'Haeyer, Pascal Vlieghe, Patrick Debels, Dr.

Veronique Vandenberghe, Kristien Schelfaut, Dr. Paul Vanderkimpen, Dr. Ivan Rocabado, Irene Van der Craats, Bart Pannemans, Ann Hostyn, Annelies Beel, Marie Mahieu, Dries Coertjens.

It was an honour to contribute to many international projects. The presents I got provided me with the energy to keep going. I remember the hippo from Uganda, the Ecuadorian statue, the Twin2Go mug, German chocolates, Swiss wine and Ukrainian pepper liquor. Special gratitude goes to Dr. Robyn Johnston, Dr. Lisa Rebelo, Dr. Stefan Liersch, Dr. Wim Douven, Edi Interwies, Bakary Kone, Mori Diallo, Dr. Chris Baker, Dr. Jos Verhoeven, Dr. Uri Shamir, Dr. Pelle Lindgaard Jorgensen, Dr. Louis Lebel and other WETwin and Twin2Go collegues, Steven Broekx (almost Dr.), Dr. Gamal El-Afandi, Dr. Rudy Herman, Dr. Eline Boelee, Rifat Hossain, Dr. Robert Bos, Dr. Seval Sözen, Christos Fragakis, Dr. Patrick Meire, Peter Vanderjagt, Johan Verstraeten, Marc Despiegelaere and other PROTOS collegues, Dr. Jay Pearlman, Dr. Chris Dickens, Dr. Deborah Bossio, Dr. Eddy Wymenga, Dr. Leo Zwarts, Yannis Guigoz, Dr.

Nicolas Ray, Dr. Gregory Giulani.

Finally, my new collegues at Milieu Ltd have beared with me and offered substantial flexibility during the 6 months that I had a double job: finishing my PhD and starting work on projects at Milieu. Special gratitude goes to Harry, Gretta, Claire, Tony, Alice, Charlotte and other collegues.

Jan Cools

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Jan Cools 1

1. Introduction

1.1. The need for River Basin Management

Planning and management of water resources in river basins is becoming increasingly complex. River basin managers need to balance the often competing needs of different sectors (domestic water use, agriculture, industry, ecosystems), while conserving or restoring the water status for communities and ecosystems throughout the catchment, both in terms of water availability and water quality. River basin managers furthermore need to address the impact of external pressures such as land and water developments, climate change and variability, and particularly of importance for developing countries, population growth and rapid and often uncontrolled urban and agricultural development. Wetlands are particularly vulnerable to the above pressures and continue to degrade, despite their importance for the catchment and livelihood. Floods and droughts may disrupt the functioning of society and the ecosystem urging for action before (preparedness), during (emergency response) and if needed after (recovery & relief) the disaster. In addition, upstream-downstream effects need to be considered, often across administrative boundaries, urging for cooperation and coordination between local institutions and communities and scientists.

International best practice to address the above water challenges is "Integrated Water Resources Management" (IWRM), its catchment-based component "River Basin Management" (RBM) (GWP, 2000, Chéné, 2009, UNEP, 2012) and specifically for floods the integrated concept of "Flood Risk Management" (FRM) (Wisner et al., 2004, Pitt, 2008, Floodsite, 2009, Schelfaut et al., 2011). Integrated management typically requires the integration of the underlying social, economic, political and institutional drivers of unsustainable land and water use, and the integration of different kinds of knowledge and stakeholders across scales and sectors. In this thesis, the term River Basin Management (RBM) is used to address the above.

The River Basin Management Cycle, shown in Figure 1.1, presents the steps needed to implement RBM.

The centre piece of RBM typically is the River Basin Management Plan (RBMP) and ideally consists of following components:

• Multi-disciplinary characterization addressing the biophysical and socio-economic status and trends and related drivers and pressures, a review of the stakeholders and institutional and policy context;

Considering that initiatives in other sectors such as agriculture development, land use planning, nature conservation, etc…. may affect the river basin, it is to be assessed where each sector is in terms of its planning and management cycle, and beginning from this point with a process of gradual integration and synchronization;

• Based on the system characterisation, a problem description is defined which further leads to a set of agreed priorities and objectives, ideally along with quantitative and measurable targets, based on a set of criteria and indicators.

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Tools for River Basin Management Chapter 1

Jan Cools 2

• A set of management options and solutions, ideally ready for implementation and linked to budgetary provisions.

• Agreement with and engagement of decision-makers and stakeholders

The finalisation of the RBMP marks the transition of the planning phase to the implementation phase.

The agreed solutions are then to be implemented. Progress and the distance to the set targets can be monitored and might lead to a revision of the implementation strategy following the lessons learnt, achieved impacts (through the implementation of the measures), potential changes in priorities and observed trends in the status of the system.

Figure 1.1 The River Basin Management Cycle (based on European Communities, 2003a,b, Zsuffa et al., 2012, Johnston et al., 2012, Rebelo et al., 2012)

River Basin Management is a continuous process and needs to adapt to the changing environment. Each management cycle is hence to be followed by the next one and ideally evolves as a spiral over time as one moves towards more effective water resources management, as shown in Fig.1.2, based on UNESCO (2009) and Zsuffa et al. (2012). In the adaptive process, visualised through the spiral, opportunities are created to address external drivers of change such as climate change, population growth, economic growth, upstream water development, wetland management, public health, etc... and facilitating the engagement and ownership of decision-makers and stakeholders.

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Jan Cools 3 Figure 1.2: River basin management is continuous, evolving and dynamic process (based on UNESCO,

2009, Zsuffa et al., 2012)

In Europe, an analysis of the River Basin Management Plans (RBMP), delivered in 2010, (European Commission, forthcoming publication in November 2012), as required under the Water Framework Directive, reveals that the Programme of Measures (PoM) do not appear to be concrete, information on their financing is not extensive, and many lack a strong presentation of the links between measures and the attainment of objectives. Many PoMs re-propose existing measures and have not defined a baseline scenario. Many PoMs therefore do not assess what would happen by 2015 (and beyond) based on decisions already made to implement other legislation and socio-economic trends and may not be effective in terms of achieving WFD and RBMP goals. Problems furthermore existed in setting targets (or objectives) for water. While EU water law sets a number of objectives for water bodies, there is still a major gap in the ability of (at least some) water managers to set clear targets within river basins.

Related to this, there may be a need for a stronger analytical framework to link pressures, state, impacts and responses, as these relationships can be complex.

Worldwide, substantial progress on the application of IWRM has been made since the 1992 UN conference on sustainable development in Rio de Janeiro. At the UN Rio+20 conference (2012), UNEP (2012) reported that since 1992 80% of countries have embarked on reforms to improve the enabling

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Jan Cools 4

environment for water resources management. About 50% of developing countries have IWRM plans at national or federal level and about 20% show an advanced implementation. Particular challenges remain in the development and implementation of management plans at river basin scale, including the selection of the most appropriate management options. Common elements in water resources management in developing countries are the limited data availability, limited institutional capacity, limited financial resources, limited integration of other sectors and challenges related to implementation, maintenance and operations. Especially relevant for developing countries - and targeted in this thesis - is the need to integrate the following themes in RBM:

1) Measures to improve water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) in RBM as measures to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Advances continue to be made towards greater access to safe drinking water, but that progress on sanitation is insufficient to achieve the MDG Target (WHO/UNICEF, 2010)

2) Strategies for disaster risk reduction in response to the United Nations Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA). Substantial progress is made for disaster risk reduction is response of the. Yet, challenges remain in the implementation of effective early warning systems (EWS) and preparedness and response;

countries are still struggling to address the underlying risk drivers (UNISDR, 2011).

3) Wetlands are too frequently regarded as standalone components and are poorly integrated into river basin management. Guidance is offered by the Ramsar “Critical Path” approach, but few assessments of implementation success exist (Ramsar Convention Secretariat, 2010, Rebelo et al., 2012).

1.2. The data challenge for River Basin Management

The implementation of river basin management is highly demanding on human resources and information and asks for goal-oriented quantitative water management. Data on water quantity (discharges, flooded areas and drought) and water quality (emissions of pollutants, bacteriological quality and ecological quality) are often scarce. Understanding the challenges facing individual catchments and understanding the appropriate management responses to these challenges has to be based on sound information. This not only includes basic ‘monitoring’ information on state and pressures, but also the analytical tools to interpret these into determining which measures and instruments need to be applied where and when. A major problem for policy-makers is to obtain reliable and relevant information upon which to base decisions. This information may be provided by the scientific community, but may also come from the public opinion (Gooch and Stalnacke, 2010).

In Europe, at present, vast amounts of 'water' data and tools are collected through Member State monitoring programmes and research projects in support of amongst others the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and Flood Risk Directive (FRD). Yet, policy makers at all levels generally perceive a lack of data and information (Blueprint ref). Among the problems are the high costs of data collection, the need for comparable data across jurisdictions, incompatibility of data collected and simulated by different organizations or limited degree of data sharing, in particular of raw data and model outputs. At present, this wealth of information is neither made available in a timely manner nor in a format that policy makers and the public can readily understand and use (Berglund et al., 2012).

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Jan Cools 5 Tools from the research community furthermore are insufficiently used in operational water management. A number of inter-related reasons for the limited science-policy interface in Europe are elaborated e.g. by Quevauviller (2005), Willems and De Lange (2007) and Hattermann et al. (2011) such as the insufficient dialogue among the scientific and policymaking or implementation communities, insufficient or late involvement of stakeholders in model development and a lack of translation of scientific outputs into methodologies and tools readily applicable to policies.

In much of the less developed world, however, data on river basin function, processes and values are scarce and management decisions must often be made in the absence of comprehensive information.

Expert knowledge and data (measured, simulated or estimated) is often available from global data sets or international research projects, but insufficiently accessible and used in management decisions. The existing data and knowledge is often not systematically stored. In data-poor context, the role of qualitative data sources e.g. based on expert judgment or traditional knowledge is important and observed quantitative data may be unreliable.

1.3. Tools for River Basin Management

Tools are defined in a much broader sense than the classical ‘software’ models and decision-support tools as “something (either tangible or intangible) used to support operational and strategic actions in performing IWRM”. Hence a tool can be anything from a guideline or a protocol, a method or a technique, a device, an apparatus or a software program (Barlebo, 2007). In the last decades, large numbers of tools for RBM have been developed. The below presents a selected set of tools and does not aim at being exhaustive.

1.3.1. Decision-support systems

Decision support system (DSS) are software tools that asks to structure the decision-making process and mostly includes simulation, optimization and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). Long lists of DSS exists. A selection is give below. An overview of the DSS that have been developed in European research projects in support of the Water Framework Directive are described in Hattermann and Kundzewicz (2009), Vanrolleghem (2010). Fact sheets on specific tools are available at the websites of HARMONI-CA (http://www.harmoni-ca.info/) and WISE-RTD (http://www.wise-rtd.info/en). The MULINO Decision Support System (mDSS) is specifically designed to assist to assist the implementation of the Water Framework Directive and the development of the River Basin Management Plans (Giupponi, 2007, Mysiak, 2010, http://www.netsymod.eu/mdss/#4). Mysiak (2010) gives an overview of optimization techniques and multi-criteria analysis for RBM. Hajkowizc and Collins (2006) review the use of MCA for river basin management. GAMS (Rosenthal, 2008) offers a variety of optimization algorithms including linear programming, mixed integer programming and non-linear programming.

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1.3.2. Simulation tools

A variety of simulation tools exists, consisting of various modelling paradigms and focus. Selected models are given here:

• Rainfall-runoff models: An overview is given in Beven (2012). Selected rainfall-runoff models include SWAT (semi-lumped model), MIKE-SHE (complex distributed process-based model), NAM (lumped, conceptual model) and PDM (probability distributed model).

• Hydraulic models: designed to simulate river flow and velocity and are particularly useful for flood modelling, reservoir and canal modelling and design and analysis of water infrastructures such as bridges, culverts and dams. Selected models are HEC-RAS, MIKE11, SOBEK, DELFT3D and Infoworks.

• Water allocation models: designed to analyse water-sharing and distribution problems. Water availability (hydrology), public demands and rules/licenses can be simulated. Selected models are MIKE-BASIN, WEAP, RIBASIM and MODSIM.

Most simulation require substantial amounts of input data. In data-poor areas, global data sets provide an alternative. Global spatial data sets include: Digital Elevation Model (SRTM4, ASTER GDEM), Soils (FAO74), Land cover (Global Land Cover 2000), Globcover, World Soil Database (HWSD), GlobalSoilmap.net, Protected Areas datasets, Population density, Runoff (GRDC), Climate (H08), ecoregions (WWF), Atlas of the changing environment for Africa (UNEP, 2008), IWMI GIS/RS Data Storehouse Pathway, UNEP Global Resources Information Database (GRID), Global Risk Data Platform (PREVIEW), Demographic household service, …

In order to facilitate data-sharing, spatial data is increasingly made available through the spatial data infrastructure (SDI), as discussed e.g. by Giulani et al. (2011).

1.3.3. Tools for cost-optimization

In order to identify whether choosing for a specific solution would be a sound investment, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is often used. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is a tool to calculate the net impact of a project on the economic welfare of society by measuring all the costs and benefits of the project (European Commission, 2008). The benefits therefore need to be expressed in monetary terms. Although most CBA results can be expressed in monetary terms, some costs and benefits such as those arising from the displacement of people and the loss of biodiversity may be difficult to express in monetary terms.

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is similar to CBA and can be used when environmental quantitative targets are fixed. The cost of is hence assessed. The cost of a management options are compared to the effectiveness of achieving the target. The often controversial monetary valuation is not needed for CEA (Zanou et al. 2003, Brouwer and De Blois, 2008).

CEA and CBA can be easily integrated in MCA as cost, benefits and effectiveness can be an criterion in MCA.

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1.3.4. Guidance documents

In the last 20 years, a broad variety of guidance documents have been developed for River Basin Management. A selection is given below:

• The Global Water Partnership (GWP) toolbox for IWRM consists of three types of tools: 1) enabling environment, 2) building appropriate institutions and strengthening their capacity, 3) specific management tools such as conflict resolution and consensus building mechanisms (GWP, 2000, GWP/INBO, 2009).

• A series of 26 Guidance documents have been developed to support the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive. They are accessible at CIRCA (European Communities, 2012).

• The Ramsar Convention has developed 21 Handbooks for the wise of wetlands (Ramsar Convention, 2010). Handbook 9 on the integration of wetlands in river basin management is of particular relevance for this thesis.

• Several UN-organizations developed guidance and progress reports on IWRM and RBM e.g. UNESCO (2009), UNEP (2012), UNISDR (2011), the 4th World Water Development Report (UNESCO, 2012).

1.3.5. Rapid assessment tools & stakeholder participation

Rapid assessment methods are effective tools to summarise and structure existing knowledge on river the basin as elaborated and typically require active stakeholder involvement. The rapid assessment tools are all based on the concept of the 50 years old and widely used Delphi technique for forecasting and decision-making in a variety of disciplines (Rowe and Wright, 1999, Green et al., 2007). The Delphi technique relies on a panel of experts. Experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After, each round, the experts receive a summary of the results of all experts. During the process, the range of answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the correct answer. Delphi is intended for use in judgment in which quantitative or model-based method are not practical or not possible and where thus a form of human judgment is necessary (Rowe and Wright, 1999). The Delphi method is based on the assumption that group judgments are more valid than individual judgments.

Selected methods for rapid assessment in River Basin Management are:

• The rapid assessment for ecosystem services is based on qualitative tools developed in South Africa (WET-EcoServices - Kotze et al. 2008). The sensitivity to future changes is assessed based on the concepts outlined in TEEB (2010) and Ranganathan et al. (2008).

• The institutional and legal context for IWRM is derived from the 'Water Governance Database' developed under the Twin2Go project (Knieper, 2011) and similar to the UNEP (2012).

• The World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) developed the TUL-SEA toolbox (TUL-SEA, 2012), a negotiation support toolbox developed for multi-functional landscapes. A selection of the tools of relevance for river basin management tool are :

o Rapid Hydrological Appraisal (RHA) o Drivers of land use change (DriLUC) o Participatory Landscape Appraisal (PaLa) o Rapid biodiversity survey (RABA)

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o Participatory Analysis of Poverty, Livelihoods and Environment Dynamics (PAPOLD)

Another way of generating interactions among stakeholders around water resources management are role-playing games. An example is WAT-A-GAME (Ferrand et al., 2009). A review is given by Dionnet et al.(2006).

1.4. Solutions for River Basin Management

Solutions for river basin management can encompass a range of actions, policies, strategies and interventions undertaken by different actors, from governments to communities, and can operate from local to international scales, depending on the driver or issue being addressed. A distinction is drawn here between management options (addressing a single issue or component) and management solutions (packages of options); the term “management responses” encompasses both. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment identified six main response types used in ecosystem management (Chambers and Toth, 2005):

• Institutions (both formal and informal) and legislation are not responses per se, but create the enabling environment for management responses. The efficacy of legal instruments depends heavily on effective enforcement systems.

• Economic interventions are an important way to regulate the use and overuse of ecological goods and services from wetlands. A variety of options exists e.g. quota, taxes, subsidies or payment for ecosystem services.

• Social and behavioural interventions include public education and awareness campaigns, empowerment of indigenous and local communities, and civil society actions including civil disobedience and protest.

• Technological responses encompass a wide variety of hardware (products, devices, tools) and software (procedures, processes, practices) to mitigate human effects on ecosystems by allowing less dependence, lowering anthropogenic impact, or helping to restore degraded ecosystems.

• Cognitive responses rely on changing behaviour through increasing knowledge. Options include improving knowledge acquisition and use (for example, through monitoring programs), adaptive management approaches and legitimization and acceptance of both traditional and scientific knowledge.

Table 1.1 lists generic river basin management responses, grouped by management domain and type of intervention. The listing is indicative rather than exhaustive, presenting some of the types of management options that have been gross-listed as potential management options by experts and stakeholders in the different case studies. Because river basins are so diverse in terms of ecological characteristics, size and use, potential management interventions are similarly diverse, they must be targeted to the specific conditions of the river basin and its communities. Many of the options outlined in Table 1 have application at different scales. For example, water allocation measures may be an important component of maintaining flows at catchment scale. Legal, economic and social responses which address both direct and indirect drivers often operate at scales beyond the river basin.

Technological responses, in contrast, tend to be localised.

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Jan Cools 9 Considering the multiple values of a river basin, a set of management options has to be included into the RBMP. A combination of management options can be:

• Complementary: addressing different elements of system;

• Enabling: interventions designed to support or enhance another intervention – for example, land tenure changes to support land use change;

• Mitigating: designed to offset or compensate for adverse impacts of another intervention;

• “No regrets”: where impacts are positive or neutral across all criteria: for example, improvements in wastewater treatment and agricultural practices.

This thesis focused mainly on technological management options. However, the strong focus on stakeholder participation has brought in social, cognitive and institutional components as a significant part of proposed management responses. The formulation of management solutions from a long list of potential options requires a pragmatic approach to selecting feasible combinations and narrowing down to a practical number for evaluation, based on stakeholder preferences and practical considerations for implementation.

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Table 1.1: Generic management responses, grouped by management domain and type of intervention

Water quantity Water quality Land systems Biota

Legal • Water use regulations

• Licensing of water uses

• Regulation of industrial pollution

• Emission permits

• Water quality standards

• Protected area designation

• Land property rights

• Land use regulation & zoning

• Licensing of land conversion

• Protected species legislation

• Permits for fishing, hunting

Economic • Quotas for water allocation

• Water pricing

• Tradable rights

• Polluter pays principle

• Tax and subsidy schemes for agrochemicals

• Market pricing of agricultural inputs and outputs

• Payment for Ecosystem Services

• Quotas for wild-life harvesting (plants, fish, animals)

• Catch limits (age, size, total catch)

Social • Water User Associations

• Pollution awareness campaigns for small industries, and farmers

• Domestic discharge, littering and open defecation

• Community catchment management programs

• Promotion of alternative livelihood opportunities

• Access to micro-credit

• Livestock size and productivity

• Community wildlife protection programs

• Community participation in eradication of exotic species

Technological • Water control structures

• Protected boreholes

• Storm water management

• Infiltration pits

• Operation of dams and weirs

• Irrigation practices

• Wastewater reuse

• Municipal, industrial and individual waste water treatment facilities

• Sanitation technology

• Safe disposal and treatment of faecal sludge and solid waste

• Greywater sewers

• Erosion control infrastructure

• Rehabilitate geomorphology of key habitats (connectivity, pools)

• Erosion prevention

• Buffer strips along watercourses

• Fencing to prevent grazing

• River-bank stabilization

• Improved agricultural practices - crop choice, tillage methods, feed efficiency

• Invasive species control and removal

• Restoration of native species

• Regulation of hunting and fishing gear (e.g. net size)

• Measures for conservation and restoration of natural habitat

Cognitive • Flow monitoring

• Estimation of environmental flow requirements

• Guidance on “Best Available Technologies”

• Water quality monitoring

• Pathways for ‘water-related’

disease transmission

• Inclusion of cultural values in wetland management planning

• Traditional knowledge for sustainable harvesting and species conservation

• Wildlife monitoring

• Monitoring of exotic species

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1.5. Terminology used

This section intends to provide clarity on the prominent terminology used in this thesis. It does not aim at being exhaustive, at proposing new definitions, or at acting as a glossary.

Early warning system

UNISDR (2009) defines an EWS as the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. For an EWS to be effective, four elements must be in place: 1) accurate hazard warning; 2) an assessment of likely risk and impact associated with the hazard; 3) a timely and understandable communication of the warning and 4) the capacity to act on the warning, particularly at the local level (UNISDR, 2011).

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) & River Basin Management The widely used definition of the Global Water Partnership (GWP, 2000) is used:

“IWRM is a process which promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources in order to maximize the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital eco-systems’. RBM uses the river basin as the geographical unit of study, and is a primary component of IWRM.

Management option / Management solution

An important component of River Basin Management Plans (RBMP's) is the action plan, consisting of a list of management actions (alternatively termed as options, solutions, measures or interventions) that address priority problems of the catchment and targets to which policy-makers engage themselves and thus need to be achieved. In this thesis, we will use the term "management option" for single action and the term

"management solution" for a combination of management options.

Management options can encompass a range of actions, policies, strategies and interventions undertaken by different actors, from governments to communities, and can operate from local to international scales, depending on the driver or issue being addressed. Management options can be technological, social, behavioural, economic incentives or institutional.

Adaptive capacity / Institutional capacity

Adaptive capacity is the ability of the system to adjust to climate change, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities and to cope with consequences (IPCC, 2007). According to IPCC (2007), adaptive capacity is part of vulnerability, besides exposure and sensitivity. A close relationship also exists with resilience, but a consensus on the concepts and definitions is not yet achieved. A big gap for water resources planning purposes is that the definitions are not ready for operational use (e.g. Gallopin et al., 2006, Schelfaut et al., 2011). In this thesis, a simplified, though quantifiable concept of adaptive capacity is used that is close to the feasibility of a management option or solution.

Adaptive capacity is understood as the sum of all measures that can be taken to adjust a system to environmental change and/or to adsorb a disturbance. Adaptive capacity is scored by means of four criteria:

affordability, organizational capacity, cooperation and robustness.

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Institutional capacity is considered in this thesis as part of adaptive capacity, specifically related to the management options that can improve institutional performance for IWRM. The concept of institutional capacity is based on Gupta (2010), Knieper (2011) and Ostrovskaya et al. (2012).

Tool

Tools are considered to be much broader than the classical ‘software’ models and decision-support tools. A tool is “something (either tangible or intangible) used to support operational and strategic actions in performing IWRM” (Barlebo, 2007). A tool can be anything from a guideline or a protocol, a method or a technique, a device, an apparatus or a software program.

Stakeholder

Stakeholders considered for river basin management were authorities at various sectors and scales, local experts and local communities.

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Tools for river basin management

Thesis

Reference