Deliberative Polls
&
Citizens’ Assemblies
A Short Presentation
Antwerp, October 13, 2008
Min Reuchamps
Deliberative Polls & Citizens’
Assemblies
Conventional Polling vs. Deliberative
Polling
Deliberative Polling
Citizens’ Assemblies
Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of
Federalism in Belgium and Canada
French-speaking Belgians and
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Conventional Polling vs. Deliberative
Polling
Since George H. Gallup, public opinions
polls aim at giving:
an accurate picture
&
a voice to democracy
Although they rely on scientific random
samples, they measure uninformed
opinions
Two major difficulties:
“rational ignorance”
&
“non-attitudes”
(Downs 1957 & Converse 1964)
59,2 % (N = 1437)
42,5 % (N = 1437)
Sim
ilar
resu
lts fo
r the
adu
lts
(see,
e.g.
, De
lli C
arpi
ni an
d Ke
eter
199
6 or
Pric
e 19
99)
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Deliberative Polling
James S. Fishkin and Robert C. Luskin
(1988):
Deliberative Polling®
Representation
: scientific random sample
Deliberation
: informed opinions
It attempts “to represent everyone in a given
population, through a statistical
microcosm empowered to think about the
issues in question under favorable
conditions” (Fishkin 2003, 128)
1. A random sample of the population takes a
normal survey on a particular issue
2. A random sample of the respondents (400
people) gathers for a deliberative event
3. During the event, the citizens interact in
focus groups and with experts
4. Finally, the participants re-take the same
survey as in step 1
Key results:
Representative sample of the population
to gather for an extensive deliberative event
Opinions change significantly
Respondents become much more
informed
Information gains explain a lot of the
opinion change
Deliberative polling: one of the most
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Citizens’ Assemblies
In the recent years, Citizens’ Assemblies
on Electoral Reform
In BC, The Netherlands, and Ontario
Learning process and “decision-making”
process
Citizens’ Assemblies vs. Deliberative Polls
Towards Small Citizens’ Assemblies on the
Future of Federalism in Belgium and
Canada
Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future of
Federalism in Belgium and Canada
Deliberative Polls (DP)/Citizens’ Assemblies
(CA) catch the big picture and provide
learning-process:
what people think
before and after, and how their opinions
vary
But not:
why the citizens change their
opinions and what it means
Moreover, DP & CA are
extremely expensive
&
not comparative
Thus, smaller, comparative and more
qualitative experiment
Tra
de-off:
not
rep
res
ent
ativ
e b
ut s
till
del
ibe
rati
ve
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Mini Citizens’ Assemblies on the Future
of Federalism in Belgium and
Canada
Research question: the relationship between…
… the citizens’
perception
of federalism and…
... their
preferences
vis-à-vis the evolution of
the federal state?
Context: deep-divided polities and societies
Perception: knowledge, legitimacy, identity,
and perception of the other community
Preferences: future reforms of the federal state
Four Citizens’ Assemblies:
In Flemish- and French-speaking Belgium,
English- and French-speaking Canada
About thirty citizens for a half-day
deliberative event (invitation through lists
of diffusion, media, peer-to-peer : i.e.
sample of convenience)
Pre-questionnaire of 60 questions
(perception and preferences)
5 focus groups, 2 experts and 2 politicans
Post-questionnaire
Creation of
profiles/typ
es of citizen
s
for compari
son within a
Two Types of Data : Quantitative Data
Pre- and post-questionnaire
Questionnaire:
perception
&
preferences
Not representative but
standardization of the responses
and guideline for discussions
What people think before and after,
how their opinions vary, and
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
Two Types of Data : Qualitative Data
Focus groups and interaction
participants-experts
Two moments in focus groups (for a total
of 120’) with trained moderators
Two experts and two politicians
Perception
&
Preferences
Qualitative content analysis (Mayring
2000)
French-speaking Belgians and
Federalism
Liège, September 2007, in the middle of
the crisis
64 citizens for a one-day discussion
Some insights :
Federalism has two negative meanings…
Walloon or Francophones?
And the Future of Federalism?
In comparative perspective…
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
T1 "Préférences fédérales" * T2 "Préférences fédérales" Crosstabulation
5 0 5 0 0 10 8,1% ,0% 8,1% ,0% ,0% 16,1% 1 4 7 3 0 15 1,6% 6,5% 11,3% 4,8% ,0% 24,2% 6 0 19 2 0 27 9,7% ,0% 30,6% 3,2% ,0% 43,5% 1 0 0 2 0 3 1,6% ,0% ,0% 3,2% ,0% 4,8% 0 0 0 1 1 2 ,0% ,0% ,0% 1,6% 1,6% 3,2% 0 1 1 3 0 5 ,0% 1,6% 1,6% 4,8% ,0% 8,1% 13 5 32 11 1 62 21,0% 8,1% 51,6% 17,7% 1,6% 100,0% Count % of Total Count % of Total Count % of Total Count % of Total Count % of Total Count % of Total Count % of Total Davantage de
compétences pour les Régions et les
Communautés Le rétablissement de l'État belge unitaire Le statu quo de l'État fédéral actuel
Moins de compétences pour les Régions et les Communautés La scission de la Belgique Je ne sais pas T1 "Préférences fédérales" Total Davantage de compétences pour les Régions et les Communauté s Le rétablisseme nt de l'État belge unitaire Le statu quo de l'État fédéral actuel Moins de compétenc es pour les Régions et les Communau tés La scission de la Belgique T2 "Préférences fédérales" Total
Deliberative Polls & Citizens’
Assemblies : Preliminary
Conclusion
Deliberative Polling (Fishkin and Luskin):
Representation
&
Deliberation
But: nature of the changes – cost –
comparison
Thus, mixing quali- and quanti- deliberative
polling in a quasi-experiment
In four different fields
Done by a graduate student
Collecting data and involving citizens in
social science research
Min Reuchamps, Université de Liège
