Structure of the document
• Section 1: Macroeconomic Context
• Section 2: Sectoral Analysis
- The Agricultural Sector in Context
- Agriculture
- Livestock
- Fishing and Aquaculture
- Forests
• Sección 3: Rural well-being and Institutional Framework
• Sección 4: (Special report) ICTs in Agriculture and Rural
Development
A troubled macroeconomic context
The global economy showed signs of recovery in 2010, storm clouds gathered in 2011 and the outlook for 2012 is puzzling. 50 100 150 200 250 300 m ay -92 m ay -93 m ay -94 m ay -95 m ay -96 m ay -97 m ay -98 m ay -99 m ay -00 m ay -01 m ay -02 m ay -03 m ay -04 m ay -05 m ay -06 m ay -07 m ay -08 m ay -09 m ay -10 m ay -11
FAO: Food products, 2002-2004 = 100 IMF: Food and beverages, 2005 = 100 UNCTAD: Food products, 2000 = 100 World Bank: Food products, 2000 = 100
Price volatility: a major factor.
Two-way relationship between the behavior of macroeconomic
variables and the evolution of international prices.
Growth of agriculture in the region has
been positive
• High prices for agricultural commodities have spurred the growth of real AVA in LAC in the last decade (3.2%).
• The growth of the adjusted AVA was greater (3.8%) than that of real AVA, with regional differences: 4.5% in the Southern Cone and 2.5% in all other regions.
Agriculture: driving the recovery of the
economies of the region
Increased 60% No change 5% Decreased 35%
How did agricultural production levels vary from 2009 to 2010 in your
country? -30.0 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 -200000 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LAC: evolution (rate of growth) of agricultural trade in terms of value
(millions of US$)
Exports (X) Imports (M)
Expectations are high, but…
• There are emerging agricultural health and food safety
challenges.
• Investment in R+D+i is inadequate.
• Agriculture will have to perform better.
• There are pressures related to land ownership.
• Energy and food prices are moving in the same direction. • Some countries do not benefit
from the upward trend in prices. Will increase 70% No change 10% Will decline 20%
What is the expectation in your country regarding agricultural production in
Livestock: great opportunities will
depend on innovation
• Consumption and production of meat has increased
• Meat export grew higher than increase in production
• Outlook:
– Increase of pastoral livestock production systems
– Higher prices
– Increased dairy production
• Policy recommendations:
– Policies for the development of family livestock
farming
– Promote innovation in value chains
– Policies for address CC adaptation and NNRR
management
Fishing and aquaculture: a sector in transition
• Steady decline in extractive fishing.
• Greater relative importance of aquaculture, but slower rate of growth.
• Importance of South America. • Diseases threaten aquaculture.
• High expectations in fish cultivation.
• Demand from Asia will increase in importance.
• Importance of the requirements related to production, technology, quality, health and safety.
Forests: concern for the sustainable
management of forests and the forestry industry
Annual variation in forest coverage from 2005-2010
Source: FAO 2010.
LAC
Area of natural and planted forests (millions of ha.) 2005 2010 Annual variation (thousands of ha./year Mexico 65,6 64,8 -155 Central America 20,7 19,5 -249 Caribbean 6,7 6,9 +41 South America 882,3 864,3 -3581 Variation region 975,3 955,6 -3944 Variation world 4060,9 4033 -5581
3. Rural well-being and
Institutional Framework
In LAC, the negative impact of the crisis
was less than expected
Changes in poverty and indigence rates 2002-2007 vs. 2007-2009
-1.99 -0.49 -1.91 -0.54 -1.94 0.34 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 2002-2007 2007-2009 Poverty
National Urban Rural
-1.36 0.37 -1.09 0.35 -1.93 0.90 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 2002-2007 2007-2009 Indigence
National Urban Rural
Policies and institutional framework:
Modernization with a long-term vision
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 To stabilize prices To protect incomes To foster production To foster consumption To regulate competition To ensure domestic… To strengthen local… To protect the labor…
Others
Policies and institutional framework:
Recommendations
• To shift from sectoral policies to policies for agriculture. • To develop joint and long-term visions.
• To increase investment in agriculture.
• To improve capacity to manage public resources. • To expand social protection programs in rural areas.
• To strengthen programs designed to improve nutrition levels. • To avoid measures that restrict foreign trade.
4. ICTs in Agriculture and
Rural Development
ICTs in the public institutional framework
for agriculture
Access
• Most personnel have access to basic ICTs, but lack specialized ICTs.
Use
• Used mostly for internal management purposes and for human capital development.
• Websites with contents that are not easily accessed and are outdated, hindering interaction with the end user.
• More paperwork is done and services requested on line. • Information is shared for decision making related to
ICTs and agricultural and rural development
LAC (nine countries): use of ICTs by farmers
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Information search Management software Online formalities Online advertising and sales Precision agriculture Early warnings Geo-referenced information Traceability and health Logistics control Remote diagnosis
ICTs and agricultural and rural development
LAC (nine countries): impact of the use of ICTs in agriculture
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Higher yields Lower costs Optimum use of inputs Higher sales prices Lower input prices Access to new markets Lower risks More communication with producers,… More communication with agric. Institutions
Technology transfer
ICTs and agricultural and rural development
LAC (nine countries): Main limitations on farmers' use of computers and Internet
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Connectivity Not seen as useful High costs Low education level
