Strategies of the Walloon dairy breeders faced to the uncertain dairy future

(1)

STRATEGIES

OF THE WALLOON

DAIRY BREEDERS

FACED TO THE

UNCERTAIN DAIRY FUTURE

A.-C. Dalcq*

1

, T. Dogot

1

, H. Soyeurt

1

, Y. Brostaux

1

, F. Vanwindekens

2

, E. Froidmont

2

, P.

Rondia

2

, B. Wyzen

3

, A. Masure

4

, C. Bauraind

5

and

Y. Beckers

1

1 ULg-GXABT, 5030 Gembloux, Belgium 2 CRA-W, 5030 Gembloux, Belgium 3 AWE, 5590 Ciney, Belgium

4 FWA, 5030 Gembloux, Belgium

(2)

Context

Objectives

Data &

Analyses

Results &

Discussion

Conclusions

Quota

Evolution of the milk

price, real rate

(index100

= mean 2007-2014)

Source : Observatoire européen du marché du lait – traitement institut de l’Elevage, 2016

(3)

Farms

(4)

Survey of

Walloon dairy

breeders

(N = 245) Nov 2014 - Feb 2015

Creation of

groups

Dairy production evolution Increase Constant Decrease Stop Stop

(5)

Dairy production evolution Increase Constant Decrease Stop Dairy production alternative valorisation Yes No Diversification Yes No

Survey of

Walloon dairy

breeders

(N = 245) Nov 2014 - Feb 2015

Creation of

groups

(6)

Quantitative variables:

Study of the difference

between the groups (GLM)

Qualitative variables:

Study of the independence

with the groups (Xhi

2

)

- Workforce

- Agricultural area

- Legal status

- Animal production

- …

Survey of

Walloon dairy

breeders

(N = 245) Nov 2014 - Feb 2015

Creation of

groups

(7)

(8)

Farm

characteristics

Dairy production evolution

Dairy production alternative valorisation

Diversification

Increase Constant Stop 0 1 0 1

N 94 132 15 206 22 212 18 Number of family members 4.51a 3.73a,b 3.47b 4.1a 4.3a 4.1a 4.2a Number of self-employed workers 1.58a 1.48a 1.27a 1.53a 1.46a 1.51b 1.83a Number of employees 0.28a 0.12a 0a 0.15b 0.36a 0.18b 0.44a Number of full-time workers 1.87a 1.72a,b 1.33b 1.78a 1.77a 1.77a 2.11a Number of part-time workers (> halftime) 0.26a 0.23a 0.33a 0.45a 0.64a 0.46b 0.72a

Available workforce

(9)

Farm

characteristics

Diversification

Increase Constant Stop No Yes 0 1

Available workforce

(10)

Farm

characteristics

Diversification

Increase Constant Stop No Yes No Yes

Available workforce

(11)

(12)

Agricultural area

Farm

characteristics Dairy production evolution

Dairy production alternative

valorisation Diversification

N 94 132 15 206 22 212 18

Total agricultural

area (Aa) (ha) 92.2a 84.0a 79.0a 88.07a 82.05a 87.46a 89.94a

Aa in property (ha) 34.5a 25.0a,b 20.7b 29.39a 25.22a 28.01b 48.44a

Aa between 1 and

4 km (ha) 26.7a 19.7a,b 17.2b 23.15a 21.46a 21.95b 32.94a

(13)

Agricultural area

Dependence

Dairy production evolution

&

Increase of the agricultural

area since 5 years

(14)

Agricultural area

Dependence

Dairy production evolution

&

Increase of the agricultural

area since 5 years

(15)

Agricultural area

Dependence

Dairy production evolution

&

Increase of the agricultural

area since 5 years

Dependence

Dairy production evolution

&

Increase of the agricultural

area within 5 years

(16)

Agricultural area

Farm

N 94 132 15 206 22 212 18

4 km (ha) 26.7a 19.7a,b 17.2b 23.15a 21.46a 21.95b 32.94a

(17)

Agricultural area

Farm

N 94 132 15 206 22 212 18

4 km (ha) 26.7a 19.7a,b 17.2b 23.15a 21.46a 21.95b 32.94a

(18)

Agricultural area

Farm

Increase Constant Stop No Yes 0 1

N 94 132 15 206 22 212 18

4 km (ha) 26.7a 19.7a,b 17.2b 23.2a 21.5a 21.95b 32.94a

(19)

Agricultural area

Dependence

Dairy production alternative valorisation

&

(20)

Agricultural area

Farm

N 94 132 15 206 22 212 18

4 km (ha) 26.7a 19.7a,b 17.2b 23.2a 21.5a 22.0b 32.9a

(21)

(22)

Animal production informations

Farm

characteristics

Diversification

Increase Constant Stop 0 1 0 1

N 94 132 15 206 22 212 18

Delivery quota

of milk 659,000a 514,000b 301,000b 588729a 462386a 543035a 662000a

Number of

(23)

Animal production informations

Dependence

Dairy production evolution

&

(24)

Animal production informations

Dependence

Diversification (0-1)

&

(25)

Other characteristics

- Year of installation

- Legal status

(26)

Other characteristics

- Year of installation - Legal status

Dependence

Dairy production evolution

&

(27)

Other characteristics

- Year of installation - Legal status

Farm

characteristics

Diversification

N 94 132 15 206 22 212 18

Year of

(28)

Farms

(29)

Evol

Evolution

of the dairy production

Increase

Constant

Stop

Farms

characteristics

-

Labour force

-

Legal status

-

Agricultural area

-

Animal production

(30)

Evol

Dairy production

alternative valorisation

No

Yes

Farms

characteristics

-

Labour force

-

Agricultural area

(31)

Evol

Diversification

Yes

No

Farms

characteristics

-

Labour force

-

Agricultural area

-

Year of installation

-

Animal production

(32)

Take home message

The strategies chosen

by the breeders to

face to the uncertain

dairy future are

multiple.

The choice of this

strategies is related

to the farm

characteristics

.

- Labour force - Agricultural area - Animal production - Legal status Evolution

of the dairy production

Increase Constant Stop Farms characteristics - Labour force Dairy production alternative valorisation No Yes Farms characteristics - Year of installation Diversification Yes No Farms characteristics - Labour force -Agricultural area - Agricultural area - Animal production

(33)

Acknowledgments

- Data

- Financial support

Thanks for your attention!

(34)

Take home message

The strategies chosen

by the breeders to

face to the uncertain

dairy future are

multiple.

The choice of this

strategies is related

to the farm

characteristics.

.

- Labour force - Agricultural area - Animal production - Legal status Evolution

of the dairy production

Increase Constant Stop Farms characteristics - Labour force Dairy production alternative valorisation No Yes Farms characteristics - Year of installation Diversification Yes No Farms characteristics - Labour force -Agricultural area - Agricultural area - Animal production