Market Incompleteness and the Equity Premium Puzzle: Evidence from State-Level Data
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(2) CIRANO Le CIRANO est un organisme sans but lucratif constitué en vertu de la Loi des compagnies du Québec. Le financement de son infrastructure et de ses activités de recherche provient des cotisations de ses organisations-membres, d’une subvention d’infrastructure du Ministère du Développement économique et régional et de la Recherche, de même que des subventions et mandats obtenus par ses équipes de recherche. CIRANO is a private non-profit organization incorporated under the Québec Companies Act. Its infrastructure and research activities are funded through fees paid by member organizations, an infrastructure grant from the Ministère du Développement économique et régional et de la Recherche, and grants and research mandates obtained by its research teams. Les organisations-partenaires / The Partner Organizations PARTENAIRE MAJEUR . Ministère du Développement économique et régional et de la Recherche [MDERR] PARTENAIRES . Alcan inc. . Axa Canada . Banque du Canada . Banque Laurentienne du Canada . Banque Nationale du Canada . Banque Royale du Canada . Bell Canada . BMO Groupe Financier . Bombardier . Bourse de Montréal . Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec . Développement des ressources humaines Canada [DRHC] . Fédération des caisses Desjardins du Québec . GazMétro . Hydro-Québec . Industrie Canada . Ministère des Finances du Québec . Norshield Asset Management (Canada) Ltd. . Pratt & Whitney Canada Inc. . Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton . Ville de Montréal . École Polytechnique de Montréal . HEC Montréal . Université Concordia . Université de Montréal . Université du Québec . Université du Québec à Montréal . Université Laval . Université McGill . Université de Sherbrooke ASSOCIE A : . Institut de Finance Mathématique de Montréal (IFM2) . Laboratoires universitaires Bell Canada . Réseau de calcul et de modélisation mathématique [RCM2] . Réseau de centres d’excellence MITACS (Les mathématiques des technologies de l’information et des systèmes complexes) Les cahiers de la série scientifique (CS) visent à rendre accessibles des résultats de recherche effectuée au CIRANO afin de susciter échanges et commentaires. Ces cahiers sont écrits dans le style des publications scientifiques. Les idées et les opinions émises sont sous l’unique responsabilité des auteurs et ne représentent pas nécessairement les positions du CIRANO ou de ses partenaires. This paper presents research carried out at CIRANO and aims at encouraging discussion and comment. The observations and viewpoints expressed are the sole responsibility of the authors. They do not necessarily represent positions of CIRANO or its partners.. ISSN 1198-8177.
(3) Market Incompleteness and the Equity Premium Puzzle: * Evidence from State-Level Data Kris Jacobs†, Stephane Pallage‡, Michel A. Robe§ Résumé / Abstract Ce papier étudie l'importance de la complétude du marché en comparant le taux d'aversion au risque estimé dans le cas de marchés complets et incomplets. Dans le cas de marchés incomplets, nous utilisons des données de consommation de 50 états américains. Bien que l'utilisation de données agrégées au niveau des états est conceptuellement moins justifiée que l'utilisation de données individuelles, ce choix est préférable du fait que les données agrégées sont moins sujettes aux erreurs de mesures. Nous trouvons que le taux d'aversion au risque sous l'hypothèse de marchés incomplets est plus petit. De plus, la prise en compte du deuxième et du troisième moment de la distribution transversale de la croissance de la consommation dans le pricing kernel réduit le taux d'aversion au risque estimé. Ces résultats suggèrent que l’incomplétude du marché devrait être regardé comme une composante importante de la solution du puzzle de la prime d’équité. Mots clés : hétérogénéité, risque inhérent à la consommation, marchés incomplets, modèle d’évaluation d’actif basé sur la consommation, aversion au risque, puzzle de la prime d’équité This paper investigates the importance of market incompleteness by comparing the rates of risk aversion estimated from complete and incomplete markets environments. For the incomplete-markets case, we use consumption data for 50 U.S. states. While the use of state-level data is conceptually inferior to the use of data on individual consumption, it may be preferable because state-level data are less susceptible to measurement errors. We find that the rate of risk aversion under the incompletemarkets setup is much lower. Furthermore, including the second and third moments of the crosssectional distribution of consumption growth in the pricing kernel lowers the estimate of risk aversion. These findings suggest that market incompleteness ought to be seen as an important component of solutions to the equity premium puzzle. Keywords: heterogeneity, idiosyncratic consumption risk; incomplete markets; consumption-based asset pricing model; risk aversion; equity premium puzzle Codes JEL : G12 *. We thank without implication Albert Marcet and Chris Telmer for useful discussions, and Steve Heston and seminar participants at the University of Maryland and George Washington University for helpful comments. We are very grateful to Marco del Negro for his help with state-level retail sales and CPI data. Jacobs would like to acknowledge FQRSC, SSHRC and IFM2 for financial support. Pallage’s research was financially supported by FCAR/FQRSC; Robe’s, by a Kogod endowed fellowship. † CIRANO and Department of Finance, Faculty of Management, McGill University, 1001 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, QC, Canada, H3A 1G5, tel: 514-398-4025, email: kris.Jacobs@mcgill.ca. ‡ CIRPEE and Department of Economics, Université du Québec à Montréal, C.P. 8888 Succursale Centre-Ville, Montreal, Québec, Canada, H3C 3P8, tel : 514-987-3000#8370, email : pallage.stephane@uquam.ca § Finance Department, Kogod School of Business at American University, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20016, tel. 202-885-1880, email: mrobe@american.edu..
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