1
Bio-Ökonomie:
Chancen, Risiken und
Blick auf das Gesamtsystem
Andreas Pfennig
Products, Environment, and Processes (PEPs) Department of Chemical Engineering
Université de Liège www.chemeng.uliege.be/pfennig andreas.pfennig@uliege.be presented at: ProcessNet-Jahrestagung 10.-13.09.2018, Aachen, Germany
CO
2
content of the atmosphere
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 330 380 430 480 530 580 source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ +1.0°C C O2 i n p p m year +1.5°C +2.0°C +2.5°C
THE major driver
world population
7.600.000.000
food
2.8 kg/(cap d)
energy
21.000 kWh/(cap a)
materials
ca. 0.9 kg/(cap d)
fossil resources
5.6 kg/(cap d)
land area
agricultural: 7.000 m
2/cap
3petrochemicals ≈ 4% of fossil resources
crude oil
natural gas
coal
petro-chemicals
agenda
5
world population
driving force
energy transition
time scale
food vs. fuel & material
limiting criteria
feedstock
fuel & material available options
chances, challenges
world population scenarios
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 m y y e a r o f b ir th w o rl d p o p u la ti o n i n b ill io n year low variant medium variant high variant to d a y source: United Nations
World Population Prospect 2017 Revision
development of UN-WPP predicting for 2050
7 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 7 8 9 10 11 w o rld p o p u la tio n 2 0 5 0 in b ill io n year of publication high variant medium variant low va riant 11.03 billion in 2050world population scenarios
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 m y y e a r o f b ir th w o rl d p o p u la ti o n i n b ill io n year low variant medium variant high variant to d a y 11.03 billion in 2050 source: United Nations
World Population Prospect 2017 Revision
conclusion
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The UN high-population variant has to be considered
as realistic a scenario as the medium variant.
annual primary-energy consumption
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 150000 200000 250000 Germany U S A India p e r c a p it a e n e rg y c o n s u m p ti o n i n k W h /( c a p a )
world population in billion data basis: 2015
iea: Key World Energy Statistics 2017
global average
developed countries several European counries
China Belgium
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0 10 20 30 40
total primary energy growth rate = annual increase
g ro w th r a te i n % ( 3 y e a r a v e ra g e s ) year solar + wind hydroenergy
annual global growth rates
11
future growth scenarios of wind & solar
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0.01 0.1 1 10 % annual increase: 30 25 20 s u b s ti tu ti o n r a te i n % year
high population variant
wind + solar
substitution rate = fraction of primary energy consumption
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0.01 0.1 1 10 g ro w th o r s u b s ti tu ti o n r a te i n % year
high population variant
wind + solar
max. substitution rate: 3.0%
2.0% growth rate: 30% 20%
defining three future scenarios
13
on global
average!
CO
2
according to three scenarios
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
high population variant
renewables scenarios: 20% - 2.0%, easiest 25% - 2.5%, medium 30% - 3.0%, challenging +1.93 °C +1.66 °C +1.51 °C C O2 p ro d u c ti o n i n G t/ a year hist oric al, n o su bstit utio n
conclusion
15
time-scale: turning point in 5 to 10 years
strong effect in 10 to 20 years
volatile prices of fossil feedstock foreseeable
By then, bio-economy should better be well on its way!
Reducing population growth simplifies transition.
world hunger
19900 2000 2010 2020 2030 200 400 600 800 1000 u n d e rn o u ri s h e d p e o p le i n m ill io n year historical data new goal UN MilleniumDevelopment Goals UN Sustainable
assumptions for scenario analysis
continue trends
slow increase of per capita kcal-supply
increase agricultural productivity
intensify animal production
10% primary energy bio-based
17 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 biomaterials biofuels pasture plant-based food forests meadows and pasture la n d a re a m 2 /c a p year arable land feed remaining forest
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 biomaterials biofuels pasture plant-based food forests meadows and pasture la n d a re a m 2 /c a p year arable land feed remaining forest
land-area: challenging, medium pop. variant
19 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 biomaterials biofuels pasture plant-based food forests meadows and pasture la n d a re a m 2 /c a p year arable land feed
remaining for forest
21
workarounds?
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%insect & herbicide resistant herbicide resistant fr a c ti o n c ro p a re a o f G M m a iz e i n U S A year insect resistant
19600 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 s p e c if ic p ro d u c ti v it y i n k c a l / (m 2 a ) year USA Germany start GM maize
productivity of land area GM vs. non-GM
23
conclusion
To feed the world, change in behavior essential:
maximum 2 children per family
exclusively plant-based food
Nevertheless: competiton for land area between
feedstock for biofuels and biomaterals
food production.
land-area demand for feedstock
calculation of exergy
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exergy of a material stream
chemical exergy of a material stream
physical exergy of a material stream
mix 1 phys , chem ,E
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+ exergy losses in processes and equipment
25
chemical exergy of various materials
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 80 100 120 140 PA 6.6 poly styr ene PE T PV C poly prop ylen e poly carb onat e H2O, CO2 methanol glucose amylose ethanol glycerol lactic acid CO poly lact ic a cid poly ethy lene ethene plant oil coal crude oil
methane, natural gas
c h e m ic a l e x e rg y i n M J /k g hydrogen
fossil biomass intermediates products feedstock
fossil
chemical exergy of various materials
27 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 80 100 120 140 PA 6.6 poly styr ene PET PV C poly prop ylen e poly carb onat e H2O, CO2 methanol glucose amylose ethanol glycerol lactic acid CO poly lact ic a cid poly ethy lene ethene plant oil coal crude oilmethane, natural gas
c h e m ic a l e x e rg y i n M J /k g hydrogen
fossil biomass intermediates products feedstock
fossil
after: Philipp Frenzel, Rafaela Hillerbrand, Andreas Pfennig: Increase in energy and land use by a bio-based chemical industry. Chemical Engineering Research and Design 92 (2014 ) 2006-2015
bio-based?
chemical exergy of various materials
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 80 100 120 140 PA 6.6 poly styr ene PET PVC poly prop ylen e poly carb onat e H2O, CO2 methanol glucose amylose ethanol glycerol lactic acid CO poly lact ic a cid poly ethy lene ethene plant oil coal crude oil
methane, natural gas
c h e m ic a l e x e rg y i n M J /k g hydrogen
fossil biomass intermediates products feedstock glucose fermentation net reaction
fossil
bio-based?
elements in chemical industry by weight
29
PE
PLA
H
O fossil raw materials
bio-based feedstock conventional polymers bio-based polymers
lignin
starch, cellulosehemicellulose glucose oleic acid natural gas crude oil coal C PET PHB water CO2 +H2-H2O -CO2 -H2O
source: Philipp Frenzel, Rafaela Hillerbrand, Andreas Pfennig: Increase in energy and land use by a bio-based chemical industry. Chemical Engineering Research and Design 92 (2014 ) 2006-2015
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 80 100 120 glucose level plant-oil level H2 c h e m ic a l e x e rg y i n M J /k g
mass fraction oxygen
Echem=-55.35xO+46.20
crude-oil level
exergy demand for different routes
0 5 10 15 20 e x e rg y d e m a n d i n M J /( k g p ro d u c t) biobased feedstock footprint hydrogen electrolysis -C O2 + H2 -H2 O -C O2 -H2 O -C O2 + H2 -H2 O -C O 2 -H 2 O -C O2 + H2 -H2 O -C O2 -H2 O +O2 direct direct glucose glucose glucose fatty acid glucose crude oil fatty acid glucose fatty acid fatty acid fatty acid crude oil 31source: Philipp Frenzel, Rafaela Hillerbrand, Andreas Pfennig: Increase in energy and land use by a bio-based chemical industry. Chemical Engineering Research and Design 92 (2014 ) 2006-2015
feasible reactions
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 80 100 120 140 H2O CO2 methanol glucose ethanol ethene c h e m ic a l e x e rg y i n M J /k g hydrogen net reactionoptions for
bio-based
chemicals
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gen. feedstock products 1 sugar cane
sugar or ethanol + CO2
ethanol ethylene
1 sugar beet sugar or ethanol + CO2
ethanol 1 oil palm plant oil 1 + 3 corn + straw ethanol + CO2 ethanol ethylene 1 corn sugar or ethanol + CO2 ethanol ethylene 3 corn straw ethanol + CO2 ethanol ethylene 1 + 3 wheat + straw ethanol + CO2
3 mixed straw ethanol + CO2
ethanol 1 rape seed plant oil 2 miscanthus/reeds ethanol + CO2 ethanol ethylene 2 wood ethanol + CO2 ethanol ethylene 0 500 1000 1500 area in m2 /cap ranges:
maximum national and world average productivity color: ■technically realized ■partly pilot-plant ■lab-values or complex in radius 50km: 200 m2/cap >600 000 t/a 400 m2/cap >300 000 t/a 600 m2/cap >200 000 t/a
conclusion
• solely third generation bio-processes not feasible
• first and second generation compete for same land area as
food
• various options available as feedstock:
sugar cane, sugar beet, corn, palm oil, miscanthus/reeds
• preferably either sugar chemistry or utilization of CO
2• cellulose utilization is add-on benefit, but large by-prodcuts
• strong interaction:
agriculture
food chemistry energy
for updated values without crop
rotation, please see later
chances, challenges
biobased chemistry: various options
bio-economy
≠
only bio-technology
bio-economy
≠
automatically sustainability
technology
human behavior
economics, ecologics, ethics
big chance: real circular economy
all happens in ±30 years (or it is too late)
references
37
P. Frenzel, S. Fayyaz, R. Hillerbrand, A. Pfennig: Biomass as Feedstock in the Chemical Industry – An Examination from an Exergetic Point of View Chem. Eng. Technol. 36(2) (2013) 233-240 P. Frenzel, R. Hillerbrand, A. Pfennig:
Increase in energy and land use by a bio-based chemical industry Chem. Eng. Res. Design 92 (2014) 2006-2015
P. Frenzel, R. Hillerbrand, A. Pfennig:
Exergetical Evaluation of Biobased Synthesis Pathways Polymers 6 (2014) 327-345
P. Frenzel:
Bewertung von Syntheserouten auf Basis von Exergiebilanzen Ph.D. thesis, RWTH Aachen, 2014
https://publications.rwth-aachen.de/record/464668/files/464668.pdf
Bio-Ökonomie:
Chancen, Risiken und
Blick auf das Gesamtsystem
Andreas Pfennig
Products, Environment, and Processes (PEPs) Department of Chemical Engineering
Université de Liège
www.chemeng.uliege.be/pfennig andreas.pfennig@uliege.be
