Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

Cahier 2003-23

RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

Methods to Estimate Dynamic Stochastic General

Equilibrium Models

Département de sciences économiques

Université de Montréal

Faculté des arts et des sciences C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-Ville Montréal (Québec) H3C 3J7 Canada http://www.sceco.umontreal.ca SCECO-information@UMontreal.CA Téléphone : (514) 343-6539 Télécopieur : (514) 343-7221

Ce cahier a également été publié par le Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative (CIREQ) sous le numéro 17-2003.

This working paper was also published by the Center for Interuniversity Research in Quantitative Economics (CIREQ), under number 17-2003.

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Résumé

Cet article utilise un modèle de cycles réels à un secteur pour tester la validité et l'efficacité de quatre procédures d'estimation des modèles d'équilibre général dynamique stochastique (EGDS): 1) estimation par maximum de vraisemblance avec ou sans erreur de mesure et en introduisant un cadre bayésien à l'aide de distributions a priori; 2) par méthode des moments généralisée; 3) par méthode des moments simulés; et enfin, 4) par inférence indirecte. Des simulations de Monte-Carlo montrent que toutes ces méthodes produisent des estimateurs généralement bons sous l'hypothèse nulle. Cependant, leurs efficacités statistiques et computationnelles diffèrent de façon substantielle, en particulier lorsque l'on se place dans de petits échantillons comme ceux généralement disponibles pour estimer ce type de modèle. Dans ce cas, les méthodes des moments semblent être les plus robustes à une mauvaise spécification du modèle. Enfin, nous discutons, de manière exhaustive, de l'implication de la singularité stochastique des modèles EGDS pour chaque méthode d'estimation.

Mots clés: modèles EGDS, méthodes d'estimation, simulations de Monte-Carlo, singularité stochastique, cadre bayésien

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