End-Use under full reciprocity
Import Consump- Trade Trade
Category ption effect Change Creation Change Diversion Change
Overall Effect
Import
Change
(b) (d) (e) (g) (h)
Malawi Capital goods Raw materials Intermediates Final goods
Total Tanzania Capital goods Raw materials
123.0 5.3 17.5 65.0 210.9
8,424.4 252.4
0.6%
0%
0.1%
0.4%
0.3%
1%
0%
61.4 16.0 146.0 122.3 345.7
8,996.9 675.8
5%
1%
5%
5%
4%
12%
3%
2,199.5 520.0 1,549.7 1,136.8 5,405.9
92,315.0 24,060.5
13%
3%
9%
12%
9%
26%
9%
2,383.9 541.2 1,713.2 1,324.1 5,962.5
109,736.3 24,988.7
59%
119%
86%
49%
65%
56%
120%
43
Intermediates Final goods
Total
5,490.6 6,732.1 20,899.5
1%
3%
1.3%
11,106.2 7,054.2 27,833.1
16%
25%
14%
52,803.9 58,079.0 227,258.4
20%
40%
22%
69,400.7 71,865.2 275,990.9
86%
135%
79%
Source: Authors' calculations.
Table 6.5: Effects on Tariff revenue associated with import effects in Malawi (millions of local currency)
Agriculture (a) Pre-EPA revenue (b) Tariff revenue effect (c): (b)/(a)
Fishing
(a) Pre-EPA revenue (b) Tariff revenue effect (c): (b)/(a)
Quarrying & Mining (a) Pre-EPA revenue (b) Tariff revenue effect (c): (b)/(a)
Manufacturing (a) Pre-EPA revenue (b) Tariff revenue effect (c):(b)/(a)
All Sectors
(a) Pre-EPA revenue (b) Tariff revenue effect (c): (b)/(a)
Consumption Effects
0.082 -0.082 -100%
0.292 -0.292 -100%
0.117 -0.117 -100%
162.080 -162.080 -100%
162.572 -162.572 -100%
Trade Creation
0.579 0.000 0%
0.022 0.000 0%
0.721 -0.155 -22%
34.743 -3.754 -11%
36.066 -3.909 -11%
Trade Diversion
36.993 -0.022 0%
9.580 -4.475 -47%
15.399 -4.187 -27%
2,783.587 -601.435 -22%
2,845.559 -610.120 -21%
Tariff revenue increase Including
Sensitive Products
37.654 -0.104 0%
9.895 -4.768 -48%
16.237 -4.460 -27%
2,980.410 -767.269 -26%
3,044.196 -776.600 -26%
Excluding Sensitive Products
37.654 -0.001 0%
9.895 -4.758 -48%
16.237 -4.460 -27%
2,980.410 -413.463 -14%
3,044.196 -422.682 -14%
Source: Authors' calculations
Table 6.6: Effects on Tariff revenue associated with import effects in Tanzania (millions of local currency)
Agriculture (a) Pre-EPA revenue (b) Tariff revenue effect (c): (b)/(a)
Fishing
(a) Pre-EPA revenue (b) Tariff revenue effect
Consumption Effects
23.9 -23.9 -100%
7.1 -7.1
Trade Creation
145.2 -13.8 -9%
10.6 -3.0
Trade Diversion
6,230.4 -802.3 -13%
9.1 -5.8
Tariff revenue increase Including
Sensitive Products
6,399.4 -839.9 -13%
26.9 -16.0
Excluding Sensitive Products
6,399.4 -101.2 -2%
26.9 -12.2
44
(c):(b)/(a) -100% -28% -64% -59% -46%
Quarrying & Mining
(a) Pre-EPA revenue 6.8 103.3 636.2 746.3 746.3
(b) Tariff revenue effect -6.8 -0.7 -58.6 -66.0 -32.2
(c): (b)/(a) -100% -1% -9% -9% -4%
Manufacturing
(a) Pre-EPA revenue 18,765.9 12,878.8 67,221.9 98,866.7 98,916.7 (b) Tariff revenue effect -18,765.9 -3,259.0 -31,864.4 -53,889.4 -32,022.3
(c): (b)/(a) -100% -25% -47% -55% -32%
AH Sectors
(a) Pre-EPA revenue (b) Tariff revenue effect (c): (b)/(a)
18,803.7 -18,803.7 -100%
Source: Authors' calculations Table 6.7: Effects on
13,137.9 -3,276.5 -25%
74,097.7 -32,731.1 -44%
Welfare associated with trade effects in (millions of local currency)
Malawi Agriculture Fishing
Quarrying & Mining Manufacturing All Sectors Tanzania Agriculture Fishing
Quarrying & Mining Manufacturing All Sectors
Due to Consumption
Effects
0.001 0.033 0.006 13.916 13.957
1.7 0.8 0.5 1,704.6 1,707.6
Due to Trade Creation
0.000 0.000 1.121 60.706 61.826
15.2 3.0 0.5 3,898.8 3,917.6
Due to Trade Diversion
-0.032 -4.463 -10.520 -790.633 -805.648
-676.2 -7.5 -95.6 -33,848.9 -34,628.2
106,039.3 -54,811.3 -52%
Malawi and
106,089.3 -32,167.9 -30%
Tanzania
Net welfare with
Sensitive Products
-0.030 -4.430 -9.393 -716.012 -729.866
-659.2 -3.7 -94.6 -28,245.5 -29,003.1
Excluding Sensitive Products
0.000 -4.428 -9.393 -415.615 -429.436
-157.6 -4.1 -70.2 -14,206.9 -14,438.9 Source: Authors' calculations
Table 6.8: Effects of EPA liberalisation As a Ratio of GDP
Increase in total imports Increase in imports from EU Fall in imports from the Region Revenue effect
Revenue effect as a ratio of Tariff Revenue Net Welfare effect
Sensitive products included Malawi
0.1%
3.4%
0.20%
-0.4%
-25.5%
-0.4%
Tanzania
0.2%
2.2%
0.23%
-0.4%
-51.7%
-0.2%
Sensitive products excluded Malawi
0.1%
2.2%
0.15%
-0.2%
-13.9%
-0.2%
Tanzania
0.1%
1.3%
0.15%
-0.3%
-30.3%
-0.1%
Source: Authors1 calculations
45
Table 6.9: Sensitivity analyses - Effects of reciprocity (including sensitive products) (millions of local currencies)
Malawi Tanzania
(a): Consumption effects (over existing EU imports) (b): Trade creation (c): Trade diversion (d): Overall increase Lower or Upper/Middle %
(l): Total Pre-EPA
(g): Pre-EPA imports from EU
(i):(a)/(f)
G):(d)/(g>
(k):(a)/GDP (l):(d)/GDP
(m): Overall tariff revenue effect Lower or Upper/Middle %
(n): Net welfare effect Lower or Upper / Middle %
(o): (m) / Pre-EPA tariff revenue (p):(m)/GDP
(q):(n)/GDP
Lower
189.8 311.3 4,964.2 5,465.2 8%
76,650.1 9,240.0
0.2%
59.1%
0.1%
3.2%
-730.3 6%
-681.6 7%
-24.0%
-0.4%
-0.4%
Middle
210.9 345.7 5,405.9 5,962.5
76,650.1 9,240.0
0.3%
64.5%
0.1%
3.4%
-776.6
-729.9
-25.5%
-0.4%
-0.4%
Upper
231.9 378.8 5,802.4 6,413.1 8%
76,650.1 9,240.0
0.3%
69.4%
0.1%
3.7%
-815.8 5%
-768.4 5%
-26.8%
-0.5%
-0.4%
Lower
18,809.5 25,050.0 208,324.6 252,184.1 9%
1,574,189.1 349,146.2
1.2%
72.2%
0.2%
2.0%
-52,066.6 5%
-27,150.4 6%
-49.1%
-0.4%
-0.2%
Middle
20,899.5 27,833.1 227,258.4 275,990.9 ■
1,574,189.1 349,146.2
1.3%
79.0%
0.2%
2.2%
-54,817.1
-28,998.9
-51.7%
-0.4%
-0.2%
Upper
22,989.4 30,615.9 244,527.8 298,133.2 8%
1,574,189.1 349,146.2
1.5%
85.4%
0.2%
2.4%
-57,182.1 4%
-30,458.8 5%
-53.9%
-0.5%
-0.2%
Source: Authors' calculations
46
APPENDIX A: ISIC two-digit Sectoral level effects
Table Al: Detailed Effects on Imports in Malawi (millions of local currency)
All Sectors
A-Agriculture, hunting& forestry 01 Agriculture, hunting
02 Forestry, logging
sector total
B - Fishing
05 Fishing, fish hatcheries & farms sector total
C - Mining and quarrying 10 Mining of coal and lignite 11 Petroleum & natural gas 12 Mining of uranium & ores 13 Mining of metal ores 14 Other mining and quarrying
sector total
D - Manufacturing
15 Food products and beverages 16 Tobacco products
17 Textiles
18 Wearing apparel,dressing & fur 19 Footwear, luggage, handbags 20 Wood & products of wood 21 Paper and paper products 22 Publishing, printing, recorded 23 Refined Petroleum & nucl fuel 24 Chemicals and chemical prodct 25 Rubber and plastics products 26 Other non-metallic minerals 27 Basic metals
28 Fabricated metal products 29 Machinery & equipment n.e.c.
30 Office, accounting, computers 31 Electrical machinery
32 Radio, TV & communication 33 Medical, optical & watches 34 Motor vehicles, trailers 35 Other transport equipment 36 Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c.
sector total
Consumption
Total EU imports rise Including
Source: Authors' calculations
Table A2: Detailed Effects on Imports in Tanzania (millions of local currency)
All Sectors
A-Agriculture, hunting& forestry 01
Agriculture, hunting Forestry, logging
sector total
Fishing
Fishing, fish hatcheries & farms sector total
Mining and quarrying Mining of coal and lignite Petroleum & natural gas Mining of uranium & ores Mining of metal ores Other mining and quarrying
sector total
Manufacturing
Food products and beverages Tobacco products
Textiles
Wearing apparel,dressing & fur Footwear, luggage, handbags Wood & products of wood Paper and paper products Publishing, printing, recorded Refined Petroleum & nucl fuel Chemicals and chemical prodct Rubber and plastics products Other non-metallic minerals Basic metals
Fabricated metal products Machinery & equipment n.e.c.
Office, accounting, computers Electrical machinery
Radio, TV & communication Medical, optical & watches Motor vehicles, trailers Other transport equipment
Consumption
Total EU imports rise Including
36 Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c. 338.6 953.2 9,546.8 10,838.6 9,689.2 sector total 20,872.9 27,757.1 221,889.7 270,519.7 159,771.8 Source: Authors' calculations
49
Table A3: Detailed Effects on Tariff Revenue in Malawi (millions of local currency) Associated: Tariff revenue increase with AH Sectors
A-Agriculture, hunting& forestry
-162.572 -3.909 -610.120 -776.600 -422.682
01 02
B-05
Agriculture, hunting Forestry, logging
Sector total
Fishing
Fishing, fish hatcheries & farms Sector total
-0.082
C - Mining and quarrying 10 Mining of coal and lignite 11 Petroleum & natural gas 12 Mining of uranium & ores 13 Mining of metal ores 14 Other mining and quarrying
0
Sector total -0.117 -0.155 -4.187 -4.460 -4.460
D — Manufacturing
15 Food products and beverages 16 Tobacco products
17 Textiles
18 Wearing apparel,dressing & fur 19 Footwear, luggage, handbags 20 Wood & products of wood 21 Paper and paper products 22 Publishing, printing, recorded 23 Refined Petroleum & nucl fuel 24 Chemicals and chemical prodct 25 Rubber and plastics products 26 Other non-metallic minerals 27 Basic metals
28 Fabricated metal products 29 Machinery & equipment n.e.c.
30 Office, accounting, computers 31 Electrical machinery
32 Radio, TV & communication 33 Medical, optical & watches 34 Motor vehicles, trailers 35 Other transport equipment 36 Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c.
-9.306 Sector total -162.080 -3.754 -601.435 -767.269 -413.463 Source: Authors' calculations
50
Table A4: Detailed Effects on Tariff Revenue in Tanzania (millions of local currency)
All Sectors
A-Agriculture, hunting* forestry 01
Agriculture, hunting Forestry, logging
Sector total
Fishing
Fishing, fish hatcheries & farms Sector total
[Mining and quarrying Mining of coal and lignite Petroleum & natural gas Mining of uranium & ores Mining of metal ores Other mining and quarrying
Sector total
D - Manufacturing 15
Food products and beverages Tobacco products
Textiles
Wearing apparei,dressing & fur Footwear, luggage, handbags Wood & products of wood Paper and paper products Publishing, printing, recorded Refined Petroleum & nucl fuel Chemicals and chemical prodct Rubber and plastics products Other non-metallic minerals Basic metals
Fabricated metal products Machinery & equipment n.e.c.
Office, accounting, computers Electrical machinery
Radio, TV & communication Medical, optical & watches Motor vehicles, trailers Other transport equipment Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c.
Associated:
Total EU imports rise Including
Sector total -18,765.9 -3,259.0 -31,864.4 -53,889.4 -32,022.3 Source: Authors' calculations
Table A5: Detailed Effects on Welfare in Malawi (millions of local currency)
All Sectors
A-Agriculture, hunting& forestry 01 Agriculture, hunting
02 Forestry, logging
sector total
B - Fishing
05 Fishing, fish hatcheries & farms sector total
C - Mining and quarrying 10 Mining of coal and lignite 11 Petroleum & natural gas 12 Mining of uranium & ores 13 Mining of metal ores 14 Other mining and quarrying
sector total
D - Manufacturing
15 Food products and beverages 16 Tobacco products
17 Textiles
18 Wearing apparel,dressing & fiir 19 Footwear, luggage, handbags 20 Wood & products of wood
21 Paper and paper products 22 Publishing, printing, recorded 23 Refined Petroleum & nucl fuel 24 Chemicals and chemical prodct 25 Rubber and plastics products 26 Other non-metallic minerals 27 Basic metals
28 Fabricated metal products 29 Machinery & equipment n.e.c.
30 Office, accounting, computers 31 Electrical machinery
Associated:
with Consumption
effects 13.957
0.001 0.000 0.001
0.033 0.033
0 0 0 0 0.006 0.006
0.450 0.006 5.674 0.078 0.150 0.007
0.032 0.202 0.011 0.230 0.290 0.153 0.021 0.187 1.202 0.266 1.511
with Trade Creation
61.826
0.000 0.000 0.000
0.000 0.000
0 0 0 0 1.121 1.121
8.364 0.265 5.654 4.426 9.105 0.399
0.466 0.114 0.439 13.859 8.138 0.570 0.044 1.982 1.716 0.057 0.689
with Trade Diversion
-805.648
-0.032 0.000 -0.032
-4.463 -4.463
0 0 0 0 -10.520 -10.520
-49.010 -0.138 -143.074 -27.760 -55.779 -5.652
-4.426 -5.341 -45.010 -37.949 -92.243 -13.310 -5.143 -38.434 -71.065 -3.016 -38.494
Net welfare Including
sensitive products -729.866
-0.030 0.000 -0.030
-4.430 -4.430
0 0 0 0 -9.393 -9.393
-40.196 0.134 -131.746 -23.256 -46.524 -5.245
-3.928 -5.025 -44.560 -23.860 -83.815 -12.587 -5.078 -36.264 -68.146 -2.693 -36.294
Excluding Sensitive Products -429.436
0.000 0 0.000
-4.428 -4.428
0 0 0 0 -9.393 -9.393
0.000 0.000 -38.948 -23.091 -46.522 -5.227
-0.867 -3.529 -1.077 -22.883 -83.815 -12.587 -5.078 -35.409 -68.097 -2.693 -36.294
52
32 33 34 35 36
Radio, TV & communication Medical, optical & watches Motor vehicles, trailers Other transport equipment Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c.
sector total
0.048 Source: Authors' calculations
Table A6: Detailed Effects on Welfare in Tanzania (millions of local currency)
All Sectors
A-Agriculture, hunting& forestry 01
Agriculture, hunting Forestry, logging
sector total
Fishing
Fishing, fish hatcheries & farms sector total
Mining and quarrying Mining of coal and lignite Petroleum & natural gas Mining of uranium & ores Mining of metal ores Other mining and quarrying
sector total
Manufacturing
Food products and beverages Tobacco products
Textiles
Wearing apparel,dressing & fur Footwear, luggage, handbags Wood & products of wood Paper and paper products Publishing, printing, recorded Refined Petroleum & nucl fuel Chemicals and chemical prodct Rubber and plastics products Other non-metallic minerals Basic metals
Fabricated metal products
Associated:
Total EU imports rise Including
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Machinery & equipment n.e.c.
Office, accounting, computers Electrical machinery
Radio, TV & communication Medical, optical & watches Motor vehicles, trailers Other transport equipment Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c.
sector total
142.8 2.2 169.5 21.3 17.4 83.4 0.2 29.3 1,704.6
226.0 1.2 353.6 78.6 27.5 102.9 1.9 189.1 3,898.8
-1,532.5 -17.0 -2,597.0 -762.7 -226.3 -3,662.5 -0.9 -1,743.1 -33,848.9
-1,163.6 -13.5 -2,073.9 -662.8 -181.4 -3,476.2 1.3 -1,524.8 -28,245.5
-1,163.6 -13.5 -2,066.2 -662.8 -181.4 -1,429.1 1.3 -1,314.3 -14,206.9 Source: Authors' calculations
54
Appendix B: HS six-digit Import effects
Table Bl: Malawi-Top 212 HS Six-Digit Products With Effective MFN Tariff Rate Not Less Than 20% and Largest Overall, Displaced Regional and Rest of the World Import Effects
Overall Trade Creation Trade Diversion
(MK (Displaced ESA (Displaced RoW Direct Effects millions) exports) exports)
Sum of import effects for Top 212 with largest effects 2,728.0
% in Overall import effectfor all products 46
211.1 61
2 421.4 Not shown .. Not shown 45
(All values in millions ofMalawi Kwacha) Overall
Effect
Displaced ESA exports
Displaced RoW exports No. HScode Value HScode Value HScode Value
(a) (b) (c) M (Si (&.
No.
fa)
Overall Effect HS code Value
(b) (c)
Displaced ESA exports HS code Value
(d) (e)
Displaced RoW exports HS code Value
ft) (R>
42 210410 13.020 610342 0.224 960719 12.225 43 180690 12.832 854451 0.210 210210 12.072 44 848360 12.753 420222 0.204 611790 12.065 45 870870 12.717 830241 0.191 761699 11.678
87 400932 4.221 830520 0.020 330690 3.750 88 360500 4.204 700490 0.019 851150 3.692 89 620459 3.886 851110 0.019 570490 3.681 90 851150 3.849 940510 0.017 400942 3.486 Continued .... Malawi: Top 212 HS Six-Digit Products With Effective MFN TariffRate Not
Less Than 20% and Largest Overall, Displaced Regional and Rest of the World Import Effects (All values in millions ofMalawi Kwacha)
Overall Effect
Displaced ESA exports
Displaced RoW exports No.
(a)
HS code (b)
Value (O
HS code (d)
Value fe)
HS code (f) HS code Value
(b) (c)
Displaced ESA exports HS code Value
(d) (e)
Displaced RoW exports HS code Value
(0 fe)
91 330690 3.783 92 570490 3.684 93 400942 3.585 94 401162 3.531 95 732620 3.444 96 401211 3.381 97 821192 3.282 98 330510 3.252 99 870790 3.236 100 870810 3.198 101 401219 3.187 102 848490 3.142 103 830230 3.119 104 870894 3.057 105 610449 2.685 106 850910 2.450 107 540744 2.438 108 321000 2.364 109 854451 2.266 110 847340 2.230 111 850720 2.047 112 830710 2.040 113 700992 2.021 114 560290 1.988 115 851180 1.982 116 551219 1.975 117 610590 1.969 118 610349 1.963 119 630710 1.938 120 851629 1.900 121 851690 1.884 J22 851130 1.879 123 441219 1.876 124 851240 1.861 125 160414 1.854 126 401695 1.783 127 847030 1.739 128 960350 1.716 129 902920 1.712 130 852822 1.690 131 853180 1.659 132 401161 1.621 133 830520 1.538 134 370710 1.397 135 847310 1.304
850680
136 Continued .... Malawi: Top 212 HS Six-Digit Products With Effective MFN Tariff Rate Not Less Than 20% and Largest Overall, Displaced Regional and Rest of the World Import Effects (All values in millions ofMalawi Kwacha)
No. HS code
(b) ESA exports HS code
(d) RoW exports HScode ESA exports HS code
(d) RoW exports HS code
(0
Table B2: Tanzania - Top 500 HS Six-Digit Products with Effective (or Actual) MFN Tariff Rate Not Less Than 20% and Largest Overall, Displaced Regional and Rest of the World Import Effects
Sum of import effects for top 500 with largest effects
% in all 669 products with duty > 20%
% in Overall import effect for all products
(All values in millions ofTanzanian Shillings)
Overall
Trade Creation (Displaced SADC exports)
6,741.3 87 32
Trade Diversion (Displaced RoW
exports) 82,219.3
99 36
Direct Effects Not shown Not shown Not shown
No. SADC exports
HS # Value (d) (e)
Displaced RoW exports HS # Value
(f) GO
Overall Effect
Displaced SADC exports
Displaced RoW exports No.
44 841810 401.8 330690 36.2 853922 318.0 45 340111 393.5 940510 35.4 330690 315.1
89 611599 182.2 90 852731 179.9
700711 12.4 620311 140.6 830910 12.4 570500 136.5
... continued Continued .... Tanzania: Top 500 HS Six-Digit Products with Effective (or Actual) MFN Tariff Rate Not Less Than 20% and Largest Overall, Displaced Regional and Rest of the World Import Effects (All values in millions ofTartzanian Shillings)
Overall Effect
Displaced SADC exports
Displaced RoW exports
Overall
HS# Value (e) SADC exports
Displaced RoW exports No.
137 ... continued . Tanzania: Top 500 HS Six-Digit Products with Effective (or Actual) MFN
Rate Not Less Than 20% and Largest Overall, Displaced Regional and Rest of the World Effects (All values in millions o/Tanzanian Shillings)
No. SADC exports
HS# RoW exports HS# SADC exports
HS# RoW exports HS#
236
. Tanzania: Top 2.8 Rate Not Less Than 20% and Larg
330749
HS Six-Digit Products with Effective (or Actual)
;est Overall, Displaced Re;
Effects (All values in millions ofTanzanian Shillings)
No. SADC exports
HS# RoW exports HS# ... continued MFN
gional and Rest of the World
Overall SADC exports
HS# RoW exports HS#
335
... continued . Tanzania: Top 500 HS Six-Digit Products with Effective (or Actual) MFN
Rate Not Less Than 20% and Largest Overall, Displaced Re;
Effects (All values in millions ofTanzanian Shillings)
No. SADC exports
HS# RoW exports HS# gional and Rest of the World Import
Overall SADC exports
HS# RoW exports HS#
434
Appendix C: HS six-digit Total Revenue effects
Table Cl: Malawi - Top 212 HS Six-Digit Products with Largest Tariff Revenue Losses (For Products with MFN not less than 20%) (Total revenue loss for products with MFN tariff not less than 20% = MK471,637,283 representing 61% of overall revenue effect)
No.
HS code 630900
HS code 870892
29
Continued... Malawi: Top 212 HS Six-Digit Products with Largest Tariff Revenue Losses
No.
HS code 700992
HS code 910229
132
Table C2: Tanzania - Top 500 HS Six-Digit Products with Largest Tariff Revenue Losses (For Products with MFN not less than 20%, and effect greater than TZSH 0.5 million) Total revenue loss for products with MFN not less than 20% = TZSH17/758.6 million, representing 32% of total revenue effect.
HS code 630900
HS code 190219
19
Continued... Tanzania: Top 500 HS Six-Digit Products with Largest TariffRevenue Losses
No.
HS code 200990
HS code 854451
116
Continued... Tanzania: Top 500 HS Six-Digit Products with Largest Tariff Revenue Losses
No.
HS code 731822
211
Continued... Tanzania: Top 500 HS Six-Digit Products with Largest Tariff Revenue Losses
No.
HS code 200799
306
Continued... Tanzania: Top 500 HS Six-Digit Products with Largest Tariff Revenue Losses
No.
401
HS code 851822
402
Continued ... Tanzania: Top 500 HS Six-Digit Products with Largest Tariff Revenue Losses
70
No.
HS code 821000