while others found them a
useful starting point to develop
regional objectives. This 2016
Plan Revision provides both
short- and long-term objectives
that are tied to a goal for each
group of Watch List species, and
are based on more pragmatic
outcomes than returning
populations to levels of the
1970s, while still based on
long-term trends.
PIF’S REVISED APPROACH TO POPULATION OBJECTIVES
PIF’s population goals are general statements of desired future condition. These goals are linked to numeric, measurable population objectives with specific time frames. In Table 2, we propose short-term (10-year) and long-short-term (30-year) continental population objectives (see Figure 8 for graphical depictions of these objectives over time).
These revised, range-wide goals and objectives are tied to the different groups of Watch List species and Common Birds in Steep Decline (see Appendix B for specific objectives for each species). The objectives reflect a short-term desire to slow and then halt declines, at a minimum, for all these bird groups.
Objectives differ in the rate at which declines should be halted, and are based on species’ overall vulnerability, abundance, and threat level. The long-term objectives provide targets for longer range conservation
planning, and reflect the desire to return declining Watch List species to at least a portion of their former abundance.
PIF will conduct 10-year progress assessments of the effectiveness of conservation actions toward meeting these objectives. Given population trends and the results of these assessments and partner dialogue, species objectives may be adjusted in the future as part of an adaptive conservation framework.
To meet species range-wide population goals and objectives, partners need to translate them to the regional and local scales where they are carrying out conservation actions. Regional population objectives are often expressed as population size targets that can be translated into habitat objectives. Developing population targets and habitat objectives is neither simple nor straightforward. PIF commits to sustained collaborations on this process with Joint Venture, Bird Conservation Regions (BCR), state, and provincial partners.
PIF RECOMMENDED ACTIONS:
• Collaborate with partners to develop regional-scale population goals and objectives.
• Implement PIF’s “Five Elements Process of Conservation Design” to assess current and future habitat capacity and produce realistic regional population and habitat objectives.
• Develop a complete range-wide set of regional objectives and conservation actions through the Tri-Initiative Science Team, and use them to evaluate
conservation progress across regions.
Range-wide declines in widespread species, such as this Olive-sided Flycatcher, highlight the need for partners to collaborate across jurisdictions to set regional objectives.
Figure 8. Potential scenarios of percent population change over 30 years that would achieve population objectives for the different population goal
categories. Reverse Declines and Stabilize scenarios represent species with a long-term trend of -2.5% per year. The red line indicates the population trajectory if a trend of -2.5% per year continues unimpeded.
©Dave Curtis
POPULATION GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
Continental Landbird Population Goals and Objectives (for 10-year and 30-year time periods beginning in 2016). Ranges of values presented for population objectives reflect uncertainty in response of species to conservation actions and unforeseen environmental conditions. Species-specific population objectives for the Watch List Species and Common Birds in Steep Decline are provided in Appendix B.
Population
Goal1 Continental
Concern Group Goal Rationale Population Objectives1
By 2026 By 2046
Recover Red Watch List
species Ensure highly vulnerable species with small and declining
populations are recovered well above their current population size starting immediately to meet recovery plan goals or demonstrate that regulatory action is not necessary to prevent
extinction.
Recovery Plan target, or increase 2016 population
by 25% to 35%.
Recovery Plan target, or increase 2016 population by
75% to 100%.
Prevent
Decline “R” Yellow Watch List
species
Prevent future declines of vulnerable species not currently
known to be declining. These species should be monitored
closely to clarify population trends and identify undetected
declines that may trigger additional actions.
Maintain Stable Population Maintain at least a stable
population (e.g., +3%
change) and actively monitor to assess status.
Maintain & Monitor Maintain at least a stable long-term population (e.g.,
+3% change) and actively monitor to assess status.
Reverse
Decline “D” Yellow Watch List
species
Ensure declining, vulnerable species remain above the level requiring special protection by restoring populations above current levels: reduce the rate of decline within 10 years, then stabilize and ultimately increase populations by the end of the
30-year period.
Slow rate of decline by 60% to 75%
Rate of decline for 2016-2026 is 60% to 75% less than long-term decline (equivalent to allowing between 2% - 22% loss of 2016 populations, depending on long-term trends – see Appendix B for species-specific objectives).
Increase 2016 population by 5% to 15%.
Stabilize Common Birds in
Steep Decline Ensure steeply declining species not on the Watch List reach a stable population trend in 30 years, while still abundant enough to prevent future Watch
List status or federal listing.
Slow rate of decline by 45% to 60%
Rate of decline for 2016-2026 is 45% to 60% less than long-term decline (equivalent to allowing between 5% - 25% loss of 2016 populations, depending on long-term trends – see Appendix B for species-specific objectives).
Achieve Stable Population at 10% to 25% below 2016 Population has stabilized with
no more than 10%-25% loss of 2016 population.
1 For species federally listed in either country or covered by a species Working Group, stated Recovery Plan goals and objectives will be used.
Table 2. CONTINENTAL LANDBIRD POPULATION GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
CASE STUDY: SETTING REGIONAL POPULATION OBJECTIVES
The Bobolink Working Group developed a modeling tool to allocate trend-based population
objectives by BCR. By changing population objectives in different regions, projected changes in range-wide trend and estimated population size can be determined over the next 30 years (Figure 9). This approach can easily be adapted for other species.
©Louis Ruttkay
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
Pr oj ec ted Popu la tio n Siz e
Year
BCR 17 BCR 19 BCR 11 BCR 28 BCR 12 BCR 22 BCR 6 BCR 13 BCR 14
By targeting conservation actions in BCRs with the greatest capacity to increase Bobolink populations, we can meet the continental objective for this widespread and declining species within 30 years.
Figure 9. In this scenario, a Bobolink model
was used to project population sizes in different BCRs that will meet a range-wide population objective of stabilizing the entire population at more than 85% of current population size after 30 years. See the Bobolink Working Group on Griffin Groups for more details and to download the tool.