Socio-economic Profile of the Population

A review of the demographic evolution of Dorval shows the following:

x Dorval’s population has been relatively stable since 1981. Between 1996 and 2001, the number of households increased by 3.2%. Dorval is a well-developed district, unlike several other parts of Montreal–West, which are undergoing significant development today.

x The population in Montreal–West has grown at a much faster rate than the Island of Montreal overall.

x According to MTQ demographic forecasts, we can expect to see the population of Montreal–West continue to grow, but at a rate lower than in previous decades.

x Dorval’s population and number of households will remain relatively stable, with increases of just 2.0% and 3.6% respectively between 2001 and 2016. Montreal–

West districts north of Highway 40² will see a slightly higher population growth than in districts to the south. It is forecast that the population of the northern districts will increase by 2.9%, while the population of southern districts will increase by 2.3%.

2.3.1 Economic Activity in the Study Area

The study area is divided into four main sectors:

1) Sector South of Highway 20

This sector is primarily commercial. In the western part, there are businesses along the service road, with close to 430 jobs. In the centre there is a large mall (Les Jardins Dorval) and a nearby strip mall for businesses, giving a total of 70 enterprises and some 900 jobs. Lastly, there is a commercial block grouping together businesses at the district’s entrance point south of Highway 20. This area has a high proportion of professional offices. There are no vacant lots here and there is nothing in the forecast to suggest any significant growth for it between now and 2016.

2 The Montreal West districts north of Highway 40 are: Dollard-des-Ormeaux, Kirkland, Pierrefonds, Roxboro, Senneville, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, Ste-Geneviève and St-Raphaël-de-l’île-Bizard. Those south of the highway are: Baie-d’Urfé, Beaconsfield, Dorval and Pointe-Claire.

IMPROVING THE LAND TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURES IN THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VICINITY OF MONTRÉAL-TRUDEAU AIRPORT

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2) Sector North of Highway 20

North of Highway 20, there are various commercial operations near the airport, with some 250 jobs. North of the rail line are car rental businesses, the Best Western Hotel (with 108 rooms and about 40 jobs) and the Hilton Dorval (with 486 rooms and nearly 250 jobs). Recently, a Park-and-Fly parking lot with 2,000 spaces was built.

3) Industrial Sector

The study area here encompasses nearly 40 enterprises, which are engaged in a wide variety of activities. Close to 12 are involved in transport, storage, and wholesale operations. The others work mainly in light industry or business services. In all, some 700 persons work for industrial companies in this sector.

4) Airport Sector

Significant activity is generated by the presence of Montréal-Trudeau. In addition to the passengers it serves, it provides jobs for thousands of persons working there for airlines or companies that do business with the airlines.

ADM statistics show that close to 24,000 persons work at the airport site (full-time and part-time combined). Of that number, more than 11,000 persons (49%) work in aircraft manufacturing or for aeronautical support services. More than 8,000 (36%) work for air transporters, which includes aviation in general and maintenance.

2.3.2 Economic Activity in the Expanded Study Area

There are many important industrial zones in the west of the island. Those near the study area include the industrial zones of Saint-Laurent, Dorval and Lachine. They are presented in Figure 2.5.

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Figure 2.5 Expanded Study Area

There are approximately 36,330 jobs in Dorval’s industrial zone. Manufacturing, transport, storage, and wholesale activities are highly developed, and together they account for 74% of these jobs. These activities also predominate in the industrial zones of Lachine and Saint-Laurent.

It is difficult to establish an exact link between each type of industrial activity and truck movements linked to the work of enterprises in a specific industrial category. But one thing is certain – Dorval’s industrial zone has a large number of companies working in transport, storage and the wholesale trade, all of which are responsible for a high volume of trucking operations. These companies also maintain close links with the airport, the cargo zone in particular. Indeed, most of the cargo received at Montréal–Trudeau is first handled by transport companies and taken to their warehouses, often via the Dorval interchange.

Portrait of the Situation to 2016

Economic development is influenced by numerous factors. The economic situation at the national and international levels exerts an influence that can be either favourable or harmful to the development of enterprises in Greater Montreal. At the regional level, companies’ levels of activity and their choices of location combine to promote the development of certain industrial zones ahead of others. It is thus risky to try to predict the level of activity in specific industrial sectors over a period beyond ten years.

IMPROVING THE LAND TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURES IN THE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VICINITY OF MONTRÉAL-TRUDEAU AIRPORT

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Current Projections

Employment growth scenarios for the Island of Montréal have been prepared. One of the most recent of these is the one carried out by Fernand Martin as part of the work of the Commission sur l’amélioration de la mobilité entre Montréal et la Rive-Sud.

This scenario forecasts that employment growth in the industrial zones of Dorval, Saint-Laurent and Lachine will be much the same as for the Island of Montreal overall. It predicts the creation of 10,000 new jobs in the three industrial zones covered by the study area. About 3,500 of these jobs will be in manufacturing, while 2,500 will be in transport and storage.

Projection of Previous Trends

These projections have been calculated using a model created by the MTQ’s Service de la modélisation des systèmes de transport (transport systems modelling division), which is used to forecast transportation movements of persons between now and 2016.

This model shows that if previous trends continue, the eastern and western parts of the city will make gains in transportation movements at the expense of downtown Montreal.

Although going to work in the downtown area accounted for 30% of all transportation movements in 1998, its share could go down to 28% by 2016. On the other hand, the proportion of travel to the western parts of Montreal will increase from 9% in 1998 to 12%

in 2016. During this same period, the total number of movements by workers to the City of Montreal will increase by 11%, i.e., from 606,235 to 671,451. Thus, according to this model, the West Island will remain a very strong economic pole. Furthermore, the development of the peripheral areas of Greater Montreal means these areas should not see a drop in their numbers of workers.

Assessment of Development Potential

There is almost no unoccupied industrial land in Dorval. A section of its industrial zone is particularly run-down and is occupied in part by residences and enterprises with activities providing little added value. Given its strategic location near the highways and the airport, this zone could be redeveloped in order to attract businesses that would be able to get maximum benefit from their location. Considering the eventual creation of a rapid rail link between the airport and downtown, this sector could also become home to office buildings with enterprises offering services to businesses in the West Island and to business travellers.

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Our assessment of the total area that could be redeveloped here suggests that it could provide 6,000 jobs.³ If this development is to occur, it will be necessary for the district of Dorval to be rezoned so that new buildings can be constructed. This is only a possibility for the long-term, but it could bring significant benefits.

The land available for development in Ville Saint-Laurent is concentrated primarily in the high technology park. About 30% (8.7 million square feet) of the park’s total area of 38 million square feet is still available. The park should soon be filled to capacity. At present, more than 4,000 persons work there.⁴ Ville St-Laurent also has other land available for development, but lots are limited in size and are spread out among various industrial areas.