8 Hindu Kush H imalaya HKH-FRIEND
8.2.6 Snow and glaciers
In the HKH region snow and glacier melt water maintains stream flow during the dry season.
A sound knowledge of temporal and regional snow melt and glacier ablation is therefore very important. The main aim of this group (ICIMOD, 1999) is to develop a snow and glacier melt runoff model (SGMRM) for calculating the amount of melt water, which will help water resources development in the region. The group will focus on snow cover simulation, glacier mass balance study, and water balance, snow and glacier melt study.
A workshop on the Hydrology of glacierised basins, 4-5 March 2004, Roorkee, India was organised by the National Institute of Hydrology (NHI), Roorkee, India. The workshop focused on discharge observation and related problems of glacier-fed rivers, melting of glaciers and modelling of runoff. Participants from Nepal and Bhutan gave presentations on glaciers and glacier melt in their respective countries and contributed to the workshop, which was attended by snow and glacier hydrologists from across the region.
Significant research work is being undertaken in Bhutan, China, India, Nepal and Pakistan, some examples of which are outlined below. In Nepal, DHM are conducting a long-term scientific research on the Langtang glacier as part of the Snow and glacier aspects of water resources management in the Himalayas (SAGARMATHA) project which included the installation of an automatic hydro-meteorological station for monitoring. In India, the Glacier Research Group at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, has been actively engaged in conducting research on the Dokraini and Gangotri glaciers in the Bhagirathi-Ganga Basin, Ganga River headwater, including glacial hydrology, glacier hydrochemistry, sediment transfer, sub-glacial hydrology and mass balance studies.
ICIMOD, with support from UNEP and national institutions of the regional countries, has been engaged in major studies to prepare an inventory of glaciers and glacier lakes of the member countries of Bhutan, China, India, Nepal and Pakistan. It is necessary to have an accurate knowledge of the distribution of glaciers to estimate the runoff from snow and glacier melt. According to this inventory, there are 3252 glaciers and 2323 glacier lakes in Nepal, of which 20 glacier lakes are identified as potentially dangerous. The results of this study, based mainly on secondary data such as maps, satellite images and aerial photographs, have to be verified by first-hand field observations. Similarly, the inventory shows 677 glaciers and 2674 glacier lakes in Bhutan (Mool et al., 2001a & b).
The three-year research project, SAGARMATHA, funded by DFID, was undertaken as an activity of the Snow and Glacier Group and led by a team from CEH Wallingford. The project was completed in April 2004. The project developed a physically-based semi-distributed regional hydro-glaciological model to assess the potential effects of deglaciation on the water resources of the Himalayan region. The project also investigated the possible impacts of
deglaciation on livelihoods, developing strategies to help local agencies and people adapt to assumed changes in water resources availability. The regional hydrological model gave estimates of annual and seasonal river flows for a period of up to 100 years for a variety of climate change scenarios. The results showed that the impacts of deglaciation vary
Gilgit at Gilgit
Figure 8.6 Modelled decadal variation in mean flow at selected locations in the Upper Indus for four climatic warming scenarios, +0.03°C year-1 (dark blue), +0.06°C year-1 (magenta), +0.10°C year-1 (green) and +0.15°C year-1 (cyan)
considerably within the region and within catchments. Highly glaciated catchments and catchments where melt water contributes significantly to the runoff appeared to be the most vulnerable to deglaciation. In the Indus basin, for instance, some of the scenarios considered suggest deglaciation may result in significant reductions in river flow over the next few decades (Rees et al., 2004). Figure 8.6 shows the modelled decadal variation in the mean flow of the Upper Indus for the climatic warming scenarios considered. The assessment of the impacts of deglaciation on livelihoods was conducted at three spatial scales: community, basin and regional. Through field investigations and stakeholder consultations adaptation strategies were identified at different scales which included changing cropping patterns, increasing crop diversity and changing animal husbandry techniques. The adaptation strategies also included improved water saving, improving systems of data collection, developing sustainable water management strategies, public awareness and improving communication and infrastructure in mountain areas (Sullivan et al., 2004). This study has involved local scientists and has contributed to the work of the Snow and Glacier Group.
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