The analysis above concerns solely those products that Ethiopia does not yet produce. But it is also possible to obtain gains by increasing the export share of products with higher sophistication within the current export basket. We therefore study also the existing export structure to identify promising avenues for the future. We do so by looking first at the level of export competitiveness (using the RCA) and at the sectoral composition (using the Leamer classification) of the exported products, and then selecting the most promising products from the basket.
Figure 8 illustrates Ethiopia’s current exports by plotting the sophistication level and the total export value of each exported item. In the figure, we also highlight changes in the level of competitiveness of each product on the international markets. By using the RCA-based classification discussed above, we distinguish four types of products: (1) products that are gaining market share or in transition (in blue);
(2) underdeveloped products (in brown); (3) established products (in green); and (4) products which are losing ground (in yellow).
The figure suggests that Ethiopia currently relies upon a small subset of products that exhibit a low sophistication level, while products with higher sophistication tend to be underdeveloped and exported in substantially smaller quantities. Eliminating the major exports and limiting our inspection to products with an export value below US$ 5mn does not change results of the analysis. Most established and transition exports generally display low levels of sophistication (figure 9).
We next consider the sectoral distribution of Ethiopian exports. Figure 10 plots the sophistication level and the total export value of the products, but distinguishes them according to the Leamer classification.22 The figure shows that Ethiopia exports mainly animal products and machinery at relatively low levels of sophistication.
22 We apply the Leamer classification, as it provides a simple but effective characterization of 10 products groups.
Figure 8
Ethiopia’s export basket and RCA
Figure 9
Ethiopia’s export basket and RCA, selected products
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from UN Comtrade.
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from UN Comtrade.
Figure 10
Ethiopia’s export basket and Leamer classification
Figure 11
Ethiopia’s export basket and Leamer classification, selected products
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from UN Comtrade.
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from UN Comtrade.
These results are supported when we look at those products with an export value below US$ 5mn (figure 11). Low sophisticated goods classified as labour intensive and tropical agriculture dominate exports along with machinery and capital-intensive products of low levels of sophistication. Ethiopia also exports some more sophisticated machinery and capital-intensive goods, but on a substantially lower scale.
As a final step, we identify the more sophisticated products that Ethiopia exports. We find 537 products with a sophistication level above the country’s average. Table 7 provides an overview on the top-10 products in this group, where “value” refers to the export value in 2012.
Table 7
Highly sophisticated products within export basket
SITC SITC name Leamer name Lall classification Prody Value
RCA 2008
RCA
2012 Product
8854 Wrist-watches Machinery Medium-technology manufactures
351 Fish, dried Animal products Other transactions 34,001 218,626 0.013 0.817 -
6861 Zinc and zinc alloys, unwrought
Raw materials Natural resource-based manufactures
33,640 53,949 0 0.03 2
6768 Shapes of Iron Capital intensive Low-technology manufactures
33,208 17,991 0.010 0.006 2
2641 Jute and other textile Cereals, etc. Natural resource-based manufactures
7453 Weighing machinery Machinery Medium-technology manufactures
32,493 634 0.129 0.001 2
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from UN Comtrade.
Note that for most of the products listed in the table, Ethiopia is relatively uncompetitive on international markets, with a RCA below 0.5 in both 2008 and 2012. Fish (both salted and dried) represents a noticeable exception. The production of textiles, identified as a product group in which Ethiopia gained competitiveness mean over the period 2008–2012, could also bring additional increases in sophistication.
Apart from fish and textiles, the products listed in table 7 do not seem promising solutions however.
We need therefore to identify other products that would provide a boost to aggregate sophistication but where the country is more competitive in international markets. Table 8 presents the top-10
suggestions in terms of sophistication concentrating on those products in the 2012-export basket that are characterized as either transition (1) or established (3).
The table shows that Ethiopia is competitive in some animal products and machinery that also offer potential to increase average sophistication. These rather simple products could function as the first step in the upgrading process towards more sophisticated products.
Table 8
Highly sophisticated and competitive products within export basket
SITC SITC name Leamer name Lall classification Prody Value
RCA
222 Milk and cream Animal products Commodities 16,219 3,476,665 0.042 1.471 1
121 Meat of sheep Animal products Commodities 15,890 48,439,344 51.309 89.250 3
7233 Road rollers,
15,660 1,330,259 2.275 1.271 3
7451 Power hand
19 Live animals Animal products Not classified 15,148 43,576,540 186.545 174.749 3
7861 Trailers and
Source: Authors’ calculations, based on data from UN Comtrade.
VI. CONCLUSION
This paper presents a methodology designed to operationalize the concepts of product space and export sophistication. The methodology allows identifying the most promising sectors and products to be developed, given the productive capabilities of an economy.
We applied this methodology to a sample of 94 countries and 3 special territories (Bermuda, Faeroe Islands and Mayotte) during the period 2008–2012 to compare the changes in these countries’ export baskets with those that would have been possible according to our methodology. We find substantial differences in terms of average sophistication, especially for less developed countries which would have found their economies much closer to the sophistication frontier if they had been able to move to the potential export basket.
These results suggest that the methodology can be used to identify sophistication-enhancing products for developing countries. We do not suggest however that it would be easy for developing countries as a whole to make their export baskets more sophisticated. Such a conclusion would in fact be subject to a fallacy of composition critique. We believe however that this risk may be minimal because different countries start from different production bases in the product space; a methodology that selects new products on the base of the “distance” from the current basket is therefore likely to lead countries starting from different initial positions to different products.
The substantial gap highlighted by the comparison of what most developing countries have reached in terms of aggregate sophistication of their exports and what they could have reached raises an important question: what prevented these countries from developing a productive and export structure closer to the one identified by our methodology?
Many scenarios are possible and the root causes of the observed low rates of transformation can be linked both to domestic factors, such as local barriers to undertake new activities (e.g.
underdevelopment of the financial sector or undersupply of skilled labour force), and to the global macroeconomic context (i.e., adverse terms-of-trade movements, exchange rates, etc.). As the relative importance of these factors is likely to vary across countries, in future research it would be interesting to go deeper into the exploration of the different constraints to structural transformation focusing on country experiences and case-studies.
ANNEX
Country and special territories sample
Albania, Algeria, Argentina, Armenia, Aruba, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahamas, Belarus, Belgium, Belize, Bermuda, Bhutan, Bolivia (Plurinational State of), Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Canada, Cape Verde, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Estonia, Ethiopia, Faeroe Islands, Fiji, Finland, France, French Polynesia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Greenland, Guatemala, Guyana, Hong Kong (China), Hungary, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macao (China), Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Malta, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mayotte, Mexico, Montenegro, Mozambique, Namibia, Netherlands, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Other Asia (nes), Pakistan, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru, Poland, Portugal, the Republic of Korea, Republic of Moldova, Romania, the Russian Federation, Rwanda, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sri Lanka, State of Palestine, Sudan (former), Sudan, Sweden, Switzerland, Syrian Arab Republic, Thailand, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Togo, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, Tunisia, Turkey, Turks and Caicos Islands, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United Republic of Tanzania, United States of America, Uruguay, Viet Nam, Yemen, Zambia, Zimbabwe.
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