vulnerability to drought.
K/KCA/Cil.13/U
128. Great strides have been Made, in the last few years, in the
application of remote-sensing techniques to crop forecasting and surveying One method uses satellite imagery of cloud fornations to predict
precipitation; a second method allows the estimation of vegetative development indices from the satellite images of crops* The satellite imagery for these crop monitoring techniques is obtained through the
geostationary satellite Heteosat, the European weather satellite, and NOAA (the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency) and processed by FAO's Global Information and Early Warning System )
129. During 1987 a direct link-up is planned between GIEWS and the
International Computer Centre in Geneva for the storage and retrieval of information on food crcp production, utilisation, imports and food aid requirements» together with the latest information available on donor allocations and delivery plans for the current marketing year _!/ .
130- The GIEWS has btan much improved and now has access to a more complete Information coverage than before, including reports from Non Governmental Organisations In the field.
131. Some 20 countries now have reserve stocks of grain for emergency use pending the arrival of further supplies throw gh commercial imports or food aid in the event of a shortfall. However, constant attention must be paid to ensuring adequate levels In these
stocks-132. Studies, based on the Sahelian experience* have attempted to compare the Increased consumption stability obtainable from- the creation of local grain reserves with that obtainable from the control of Import levels through variable Import levies and foreign exchange, asftistance or various combinations of such policies. While they have generally concluded that stability could be more cheaply obtained by the judicious use of import
policies combined with foreign exchange financial assistance, they have also recognised that previous policies have not increased governments' confidence In foreign exchange assistance or food aid schemes which have often come too late to prevent severe hardships- Furthermore, it haa also been recognised that meeting national shortfalls in production will not eliminate hardship If measures are not taken to ensure that supplies reach the neediest and worst-stricken sections of the population*
133. It is mainly as a corollary to these two last mentioned factors that FAO In particular, and other International a gene lea., have In recent years paid an increasing' degree of attention to food Information, and early warning systems. The creation of functional systems! of this type will reduce the lead time Involved ia obtaining food aid or foreign exchange assistance in emergencies and In effecting adjustments in commercial import volumes in accordance with production fluctuations. Such eystems can also be used to determine the moment when recourse should be had to at rategle reserves and, if sufficiently refined t can be a Means of Identifying areas of shortfall within a country,
134. If the concept of food security is the ability of a nation to reduce, or eliminate food insecurity then It must Include the. nation's state of preparedness to cope with a food emergency situation when It arises. For this purpose it has been recommended that each member State draw up, as well as review and revise periodically, a contingency plan, which defines
JL/BCA/CM.U/12 Page 29
rtsponaabilities < nd Indicates the action to be taken by those responsible in a food emergency situation. It seems that many vulnerable countries have yet to finalise and officialize such contingency plans.
135. It has also to be recalled that an individual State18 capacity to enter the international food grain market at will is also relevant to an assessment of that State's degree of preparedness to face a food emergency.
Thus the relationship between the average food import bill and average
export earnings is a significant one for low-income food deficit countries.
A study of the financial indicators in annex VI shows that, leaving aside the exceptional cases of Comoros and Djibouti, Mozambique will need to spend more than 40 per cent, Madagascar, Sierra Leone and Somalia around 30 per cent and a group of six countries (Guinea Bissau, Mali, Mauritius,
Morocco, Senegal and Sudan) more than 20 per cent of their available foreign exchange for food imports this year.
137. With regard to the present availability of food aid to complement commercial imports by food deficit countries, the situation in 1987 is even better than that in 1986 and for the fourth successive year contibuttons to the International Emergency Food Reserve have exceeded the target.
138. With regard to the second source of food insecurity: the "food gap" in many countries, resulting from structural deficits, has continued to grow in absolute terms in spite of an overall improvement in dietary energy
supplies, on a per capita basis, over the last two decades.
139. African countries which (with the exception of: certain dependent peoples and the Republic of South Africa) are all classed as "developing countries", have been able to raise their dietary energy supplies (DES) slightly between 1962 and 1980. Thus per capita DES which was 2120
Kcals.per day, on average, between 1961 and 1963 rose to 2170 Kcals.per day for the period 1969-1971 and to 2260 Kcals.per day for the period
1979-1981 .l_f This improvement represents an annual growth rate of 0-3 per cent for the first eight years and of 0.4 per cent for the remaining ten
years.
140. Of the 42 countries in Africa for which food balances were published for the results of the Fifth World Food Survey (FA0 1985), in 17 countries there was no improvement in their DES in 1979-1981 compared with the period 1969—1971• It is perhaps significant that 16 of these countries are also classed as low revenue countries.
141- During the period from 1969/1971 to 1982/1984 the overall cereal deficit for Africa had grown, as a result of the growth of food production failing to keep up with the growth of demand, from 5.2 million tonnes to 24.8 million tonnes 2_/. Unless this trend is arrested, as was stated earlier in para 31, page 7, the deficit in the year 2010 would be 100 million tonnes.
142. Considering the third source of food insecurity: widespread poverty resulting in lack of "food entit.lment" among large sections of the
population in most, if not all African countries, it is clear that African countries need to give more consideration to the problems of access to food
\] FAO, The Fifth World Food Survey, Rome 1985.
Vw,v 30
supplies within the individual countries (Increasing purchasing power of