Project implementation related risks

Two types of risk bear on the implementation of environmental remediation projects. The first category consists of the radiation exposure risk [115], which is being treated in the relevant IAEA safety standards [6]. The second category is the risk that a given remediation project may not meet its stated targets and objectives, namely the achievement of cleanup within

schedule and budget. Hence, discussions of higher level risk-based decision models, which intend to answer the question of whether and to what level cleanup is justified, are largely excluded from this chapter.

From a ‘technocratic’ perspective everything potentially impeding the implementation of a project within schedule and budget would be termed a ‘risk’. Such view implies (pre-)defined objectives and a justification for the remediation action. Identifying and minimising risks is necessary to ensure efficient project implementation. This becomes even more important, when key benefits associated with third-party financing, including inherent performance incentives and requirements of private lending sources, are to be preserved [92].

Traditionally, those in charge of environmental remediation projects have focused on technical risk only. The practical experience gathered over the last few decades, however, shows that different categories of risks are interrelated, including technical, operational, commercial, and people-related. To devise an effective cleanup strategy using suitable project management and contracting strategies, therefore, requires risk to be addressed in an integrated way [116]. Operational and commercial risks include site conditions, construction issues, programme management and financial risk. People-related risks include legal and procurement issues such as liability and indemnification was well as the stakeholder and associated political dimensions as discussed above.

Another key consideration is that active remedial measures taken to protect possible future individuals from residual contamination could cause considerable adverse effects to existing environmental, cultural, and economic resources, as well as to operators. This raises the question of whether losses incurred in the near term will be offset by any potential future benefits [116].

4.6.2. Technology Related Risks

The application of techniques, in particular new ones, always entails an element of risk and, hence, uncertainty about meeting the stated objectives. This uncertainty can be categorised into a number of different sources of uncertainty:

¾ The actual and apparent uncertainty or risk is related to the extent of practical experience with the technique in question.

¾ Some technologies have been available for a long time and applied in many cases, their effectiveness has been demonstrated, both in the short and the long-term.

¾ At the other end of the scale, there may be emerging technologies which appear to be promising, but their effectiveness in a given situation or on the longer-term time-scale has yet to be shown.

¾ Technology-specific risks, such as occupational health and safety risks to workers [117]

[118][119], have to be worked-in also.

¾ Logistics of deployment, e.g. the availability of equipment, staff, licenses etc. may pose additional uncertainties.

¾ Unwanted/undesirable side effects may occur [120]. Any technical measure constitutes an interference with a natural or man-made system with a potential to disturb the (dynamic) equilibrium of this system. Examples include geochemical measures to reduce uranium solubility in mill tailings which may enhance radium release, or changes

in agricultural land use, which may result in nitrogen release to ground and surface waters.

¾ Most technical measures will result in wastes which have to be disposed of in an orderly fashion. Availability of disposal facilities and cost (see above) of disposal may become limiting factors.

At the planning stage, there may be also some uncertainty with the respect to the acceptability of certain remediation or waste management techniques by all or some parties concerned, namely the owner, operator, regulator and the public. Some techniques are considered more

‘politically correct’ than others, for instance, waste incineration is disfavoured in certain countries. Technology acceptance is strongly related to the issue of innovation, innovation acceptance, and stakeholder participation in technology development [121].

Public health risks involve risks to the general public or to specific subgroups of the general public resulting from exposures or accidents that are associated with the deployment of a given remediation technology. This risk is a function of the likelihood of an exposure or accident occurring, coupled with the anticipated severity of the accident, that results in morbidity, injury, or mortality.

Worker safety and health risk refers to the risk to workers involved in implementing a remediation technology. Safety risks may result from (industrial) accidents that are associated with the deployment of a certain remediation technology. Health risks may result from workers being exposed to radionuclides and/or hazardous chemicals.

These risks are an important factor in the choice of a remediation technique because the safety and health impacts may vary substantially among technical alternatives [8]. Information about such risks can be derived from existing sources, such as standard nuclear and industrial engineering references, published health standards for radiologically relevant and toxic substances, medical surveillance, epidemiological studies etc. Data for the safety evaluation can also be obtained from specific hazard analyses or accident risk analyses.

4.6.3. Transportation Risk

Moving cleanup wastes or residues from one site to another site may result in industrial, radiation and traffic accidents that lead to morbidity, injury, or mortality. Transportation may also impact on natural resources or pose an ecological risk. In general, the magnitude of transportation risk depends on the number of kilometres travelled and the specific mode of transportation [122]. The severity of the impact associated with a transportation risk depends on the type of material being transported and the degree to which the material is confined, i.e.

the waste form if any.

The potential for transportation risks may influence the choice of a remediation technology because some technologies require off-site transportation of materials for conditioning, or result in residues to be disposed off in designated and licensed facilities. Information about transportation risks can be obtained from hazard analyses or accident risk analyses.

4.6.4. Programmatic Risk

Programmatic risk consists of project uncertainties due to schedule demands, technology availability, logistical factors, and funding profiles.

The application of technology always entails an element of uncertainty. The implementation of a project, especially remediation projects whose life-cycle extend over a long time period, is particularly sensitive to meeting schedule demands and funding priorities. The technical performance may be uncertain, i.e. the effectiveness, readiness, implementability, and availability must be ascertained to reduce risks [8][122]. Logistics of deployment, e.g. the availability of equipment, staff, licenses etc. may pose additional uncertainties. Funding priorities may change over time, being often controlled on a political level, where perceptions and agendas may change.

A clear baseline needs to be established with critical path elements delineated. Information can be obtained from management plans, work breakdown structure analysis, operational technical requirements, and prior experience.

It has been demonstrated for the USA how the availability of technologies to solve a given set of problems can be assessed. Factors taken into account are the financial resources spent in the past and the present on their development and a complex index for their relevance, based on a judgement of needs being addressed [123].

4.6.5. Environmental Risks

The implementation of a remediation project may result in a variety of environmental impacts in addition to those resulting from the contamination itself. Environmental risk involves adverse impacts to ecological receptors located on-site or off-site due to significant disturbance to the site ecosystem and its surroundings as a result of remediation [124]. For instance, certain technologies such as removal of topsoil or soil washing may remove surface contamination at the cost of destroying the soil ecosystem.

Depending on the size of the site, an area larger than the actual contamination may be required for installations, intermediate storage of wastes and so on. Removal, transport and disposal of residual wastes may result in environmental impacts and risks at locations other than of the original contamination. There is, for example, little benefit in removing a contaminant that is well fixed on a low volume of soil, only to produce a high volume of an aqueous waste with the contaminant in a soluble or mobile form. In addition, the remediation techniques chosen may generate large quantities of secondary waste and may pose risks of exposure to the public or operators that exceed the risks of quiescent contamination [125].

Environmental risk may also extend to possible impacts on natural resources such as surface waters, groundwater, air, geological resources, or biological resources [124]. Impacts on biological receptors can be assessed in terms of mortality or diversity. Natural resource damages can be assessed in terms of mitigation of existing damage or prevention of new damage.

The potential for environmental risk may be an important factor in decision making because some remediation technologies are more likely than others to produce adverse impacts on ecological receptors, including habitat disruption, or generate natural resource damage [8].