PLENARY SESSION 6 AND 7: CONSIDERATION AND

CONSIDERATION AND ADOPTION OF THE CONSENSUS STATEMENT

139. Dr Josué Dioné presented the draft consensus statement for consideration by the meeting. After constructive discussion, the Forum adopted the consensus statement presented in annex 5.

X1. CLOSING SESSION

140. In closing, and on behalf of the three organizers – the ECA, the AUC and the AfDB, the ECA’s Deputy Executive Secretary, Mrs Jennifer Kargbo acknowledged the invaluable contributions, made in various ways by all the participants, to the success of the event. She reiterated that climate change was a real existential problem for Africa and expressed the hope that each delegate would carry forward the issues discussed during the Forum’s frank, enriching and intensive dialogue. She hoped that the participants would implement recommendations presented under the section on the “Way Forward” of the consensus statement– the most significant expression of the Forum’s collective effort.

141. She asserted that without all the delegates’ active participation and commitment, the Forum would not have been able to achieve its objective. She reserved her most sincere gratitude for CoDA members for their wisdom in addressing the very important segment on “Harnessing means of response to climate change”. This is at the core of Africa’s capacity and ability to carry its development agenda forward. Her special thanks went to former president Festus Mogae of Botswana and Chairperson of CoDA, the CoDA convener, Professor Abdoulaye Bathily and Dr Speciosa Wandira Kazibwe, former vice president of the Republic of Uganda for supporting the initiative.

142. On behalf of the organizers, she extended her sincere gratitude to Their Excellencies President Girma Wolde-Giorgis and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg of Norway, President Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria, US President Barack Obama and HRH The Prince of Wales for their exemplary leadership, commitment and contributions to the success of the event. She also commended ministers from member States and partnering countries for the energy they brought to the sessions, and their encouraging support to the ECA’s major initiatives. Similar sentiments were conveyed to all the participants and resources persons, including chairpersons, lead speakers, moderators, discussants, panellists and representatives of CSOs, for their energy and fresh perspectives, which enlightened and educated the ADF.

143. Mrs Kargbo concluded by commending all the staff of the ECA, AfDB, AUC, other UN agencies and DFID for the collaborative manner in which they organized the Forum through the ADF-VII secretariat and its steering and other committees. She commended the government and people of Ethiopia for the generous hospitality and excellent arrangements provided for the Forum, and declared it closed.

Annexes

1. Concept note

2. Overview

3. The set of 12 issues papers

4. Agenda and programme

5. Consensus statement

6. List of participants

7. Indicative action plan

Annex 1. ADF-VII concept note

Acting on climate change for sustainable development in Africa

I. Background and justification

1. Climate change is one of the most challenging threats to sustainable development in Africa. Although the continent contributes less than 4 per cent of total GHGs, its countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change in the world.

This vulnerability is attributable to multiple stresses, made worse by limited capacity to adapt to climate change. Firstly, many African countries are located in regions with warm and relatively dry climate. The continent has extensive marginal areas with poor soils and highly variable rainfall. Secondly, most African economies rely heavily on climate-sensitive sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, forestry, other natural resources and tourism. Thirdly, the continent is unable to respond adequately to the direct and indirect effects of climate change because of widespread poverty, poor economic and social infrastructure, conflicts, limited human and institutional capacities and inadequate technologies and financial resources. In Africa poor people bear the brunt of climate change because they tend to live in environments that are most susceptible to droughts, floods and other extreme weather events.

2. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC and other major reports, such as the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, mention evident and expected impacts of climate change on Africa’s development. The impacts threaten the achievement of the MDGs and sustainable development in the region. They include:

(a) Increased water stress and water-related conflicts;

(b) Restricted agricultural production and increased food insecurity;

(d) Rising sea levels, that cause damage to livelihoods, infrastructure and the environment in coastal regions;

(e) Loss of biodiversity, forests and other natural habitats, threatening the wellbeing of millions of people, whose livelihoods depend on biodiversity resources;

(f) An expanded range and prevalence of vector-borne diseases, adding to the challenge of the HIV/AIDS pandemic that affects mostly poor

people, who live in desperate conditions and lack access to health care;

and

(g) Increased risks of disasters, conflicts, instability and security threats, associated with massive population migrations sparked by extreme climate events.

3. African countries must make concerted efforts to adapt to climate change overall to increase the resilience of their societies and economies to the many new challenges. Solid global mitigation actions taken now could still prevent the worst impacts of climate change. For such actions to be effective all stakeholders will need to incorporate concerns over climate change into their development policies, strategies, programmes and practices. Sectors that are vulnerable to climate change will require particular attention. Such actions should be conceived and implemented in full cognizance of the evidence, impact and challenges of climate change, and of the opportunities associated with climate change. Chief among these are opportunities for Africa to adopt low-carbon and greener development pathways. The provisions of a post-2012 global agreement must bring optimal benefits to Africa in terms of technology, funding and capacity-building for adaptation and mitigation.

4. Africa has so far succeeded in articulating its concerns and interests in a common position and conveying them to the international community in the ongoing climate change negotiations. Although the negotiations at the UNFCCC’s Fifteenth Conference of Parties (COP-15) concluded without a legally-binding agreement, the resulting Copenhagen Accord made steps in the right direction. Notably, developed countries pledged to curb their GHGs and provide financial support for adaptation and mitigation efforts in developing countries. As negotiations continue towards a hopeful conclusion at COP-16 in Cancun, Mexico in December 2010, it is important for Africa to remain on course and united in refining and managing its common position.

5. The ADF-VII aims to provide a multi-stakeholder platform for discussion and the building of consensus on the foregoing pressing issues. The Forum will offer an opportunity to exchange information, knowledge and experience on the best ways for Africa to implement policies, strategies, programmes and practices to cope with climate change. The ADF-VII will also help strengthen the African common position in the ongoing international negotiations by raising awareness and building consensus among all African stakeholders and with its development partners on concerns and expectations for a post-2012 global climate-change agreement.

II. Objectives

Overall objective

6. The overall objective of the Forum is to the raise awareness of all stakeholders and partners at all levels and mobilize them to integrate climate change concerns into development policies, strategies, programmes and practices in Africa. The ADF-VII also aims to strengthen Africa’s participation in international climate change negotiations with a view to ensuring adequate reflection of the continent’s concerns and priorities in a post-2012 international climate change regime.

Specific objectives

7. More specifically, the ADF-VII will:

(a) Provide compelling evidence and demonstrate impacts of climate change and the need for widespread adoption of quality climate-risk management practices, using reliable information services, in order to boost adaptation and mitigation policies and practices;

(b) Deliberate on the many challenges that climate change poses to Africa’s development, and the opportunities it presents;

(c) Promote the sharing of experiences, best practices and lessons learnt in integrating climate change concerns into development policies and practices;

(d) Define priority actions and measures needed to adequately address challenges posed by climate change, including by exploiting the opportunities it presents;

(e) Boost Africa’s common position on climate change in preparation for the international climate change negotiations in Cancun, Mexico; and (f) Build new strategic alliances and partnerships to further Africa’s

climate change agenda.

III. Expected outcomes and outputs

Outcomes

8. Discussions and dialogue during the ADF VII will help ensure that:

(a) African stakeholders are better informed about the threats and opportunities associated with climate change;

(b) African stakeholders enhance their knowledge in managing climate risks by incorporating climate change concerns in development policies and practices;

(c) African stakeholders boost their capacity to address challenges posed by climate change and exploiting opportunities it presents;

(d) Africa participates adequately in the Cancun climate-change negotiations;

(e) Support for the implementation of Africa’s priority climate-change initiatives and programmes is strengthened; and

(f) Strategic alliances and partnerships for Africa’s climate-change agenda are consolidated.

Outputs

9. During and after the Forum the following key information and follow-up products will be produced and disseminated:

(a) A Forum report;

(b) A consensus statement;

(d) Press releases;

(e) Daily bulletins;

(f) Web publications; and

(g) A compendium of the Forum’s proceedings.

IV. Overall theme

10. From a people-centred livelihood and sustainable development perspective, the ADF-VII will focus on “Acting on climate change for sustainable development in Africa.”

The plenary sessions set the stage

11. The following four main themes will be considered successively in plenary, setting the stage for the three-day dialogue:

(a) Governance and leadership response to climate change

Given the magnitude of the predicted impacts of climate change on all societies, economies and ecosystems, there is a need for strong and committed leadership, worldwide, to spur a response that matches the challenges at hand. The theme on governance and leadership response to climate change will take the form of a high-level leadership dialogue, to be chaired by Mr Ban-Ki Moon³, the UN Secretary-general. Distinguished and high-level leaders and personalities will address the Forum. They include, His Excellency Meles Zenawi, prime minister of the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Ethiopia, coordinator of the Conference of African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change. Prime Minister Meles is also the co-chair of the High-Level Panel on Climate Change Financing, established by the Mr Ban-Ki-Moon, to follow-up on the Copenhagen Outcomes on Financing. He will speak and discuss this very important topic. Dr Pachauri, chairperson of the IPCC,

3 In the event Mr Ban-Ki Moon was unable to attend.

will make a high-level statement on the evidence of climate change, to set the tone for subsequent discussions on this interesting subject;

(b) Evidence and impact of climate change

It is now scientifically established that the earth’s climate is changing. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4-2007) concludes that our climate system is warming as a result of human activities.

Not only do rising greenhouse gas emissions threaten the environment, they also undermine development and have devastating consequences for Africa’s economic and social wellbeing. Without adequate understanding of future climate trends to enable us to manage our unstable climate, Africa may not achieve the MDGs.

While all countries in the world will suffer the consequences of climate change, African countries are particularly vulnerable and will bear the brunt. Different models predict that for Africa the effects of a temperature increase of around 2°C - that is highly expected - could mean a loss of USD 133 billion or 4.7 per cent of GNP, mostly due to losses in the agricultural sector. A temperature rise of 2.5-5°C, would mean 128 million more people affected by hunger and 108 million by flooding, and sea levels rising by as much as a metre, with devastating effects.

Therefore, a good starting point for serious action-oriented debate on climate change would be a common understanding of: the evidence of the phenomenon; and the extent of its present and projected impacts on economic growth, social development and environmental sustainability in Africa.

(c) Climate change adaptation and mitigation: challenges, opportunities and the green economy;

It is important to integrate climate risks into national decision-making on development policies, programmes and practices so as to reduce the damage caused by climate change to resources, livelihoods and the wider economy. Such integration should include the challenges that climate change poses and the opportunities it presents for sustainable development. Notable among the opportunities are those associated with the green economy. Dialogue on such challenges and opportunities should also help place responses high on governments’ policy agendas, recognizing that this

‘environmental problem’ is really a major challenge to development; and

(d) Africa and the international climate change negotiations

The ongoing climate change negotiations are complex and challenging, as the issues under discussion concern all aspects of development. To ensure that African countries participate effectively in the negotiations and develop well-informed positions for Cancun, all relevant stakeholders, including government actors, the private sector and civil society, should participate in the process. It necessary to raise the awareness of everyone concerned of the key issues and elements under discussion. Equally important is the need to build consensus on the continent’s vital concerns and expectations within the scope of the negotiations.

Focus sub-themes developed in three breakout parallel sessions

12. The ADF-VII will offer a platform for more focused and in-depth discussion on the following sub-themes, clustered in the three parallels sessions identified in paragraph 5 above:

(a) Climate change, food security and economic development;

(b) Climate change, human development, security and the sustainability of the ecosystem; and

Climate change, agriculture and food security

13. According to projections, climate change will severely compromise agricultural production-- the backbone of most African economies-- and aggravate poverty and food insecurity in many sub regions of the continent. Arable land, the length of growing seasons and irrigation and yield potential are all expected to decrease significantly, particularly along the margins of semi-arid and arid areas.

More frequent and severe droughts, floods and weather extremes will compound the constraints on crop and livestock production systems. Declining fisheries resources in oceans, seas and large lakes, due to rising water temperatures, will hurt local food supplies. The combined impacts of these events threaten the livelihoods of large proportions of the African population and curtail the prospects for broad-based economic growth, poverty reduction and food security on the continent.

14. Smallholder farmers in developing countries like in Africa are on the frontlines of climate change. Quite often, this poor segment of society bears the brunt of the impact of climate change. Climate change and food security are the greatest challenges that Africa will face in the coming years. Serious studies indicate that

“unchecked climate change” will result in a 20 per cent increase in child malnutrition by 2050. It is thus vital to combine the climate change and agriculture agendas, and adapt agriculture to the new climate reality. To this effect, all actors should participate at the outset, in initiatives to widen the development scope beyond traditional actors, and engage stakeholders and partners in a truly positive process.

15. To address the effects of climate change on agriculture, including crops, livestock and fishing activities, it will be necessary to apply new analytical approaches, supported by appropriate institutional setups. The current decision-making process, involving vulnerability and risk analyses, agricultural monitoring, food security early warning, environmental assessment and resource mobilization, needs to be reviewed and adjusted to the changing realities. Equally important is the need to adopt policies and strategies that will empower communities to respond to the new complex challenges and adapt to them.

Climate change, trade and industrial development

16. Climate change is affecting African trade and industrial development in several ways. Climate-induced reduction of agricultural output would make Africa

more dependent on food imports. Some modelled projections of the effects of climate change show a 10 per cent to 40 per cent increase in dependency on food imports.

Significant declines have been predicted for Africa’s net agricultural exports, ranging from 9 per cent in Mozambique to 74 per cent in Zambia. Concurrently, prospects for a green economy offer new opportunities for future pathways to industrial and trade development in Africa. To carry out action that is effective in to coping with climate change, sustaining economic growth and reducing poverty in Africa, we must have a solid understanding of the challenges and opportunities that climate change presents for trade and industrial development.

Climate change and infrastructure development

17. Investment in infrastructure has been neglected in much of Africa in the last few decades. Consequently there is a large gap in infrastructural to be filled, in addition to adapting existing infrastructure to a changed climate, and for use with low-carbon fuels. The infrastructural challenge alone is colossal.

Water and Sanitation

18. Climate change will increase existing water stress and water shortage in Africa. Decreasing the availability of water is expected to affect water quality, exacerbate water-borne diseases, and reduce available hydropower. Coupled with increased demand on water for different uses (agriculture, industry and energy), this will adversely affect the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people and aggravate water-related problems. Adapting and enhancing existing infrastructure must be driven by projected constraints on resources.

Energy

19. A combination of increased demand for power and reduced water flows to hydropower dams and greater depletion of biomass energy resources, due to climate change, could seriously compromise the already dire energy situation. The resulting constraints on access to energy would further impede industrial development throughout the continent. This notwithstanding, Africa is still blessed with considerable opportunities to develop renewable energy resources.

Transport

20. The transport infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to increased risks of floods from larger storms and rising sea levels. Road and railway networks, airports and harbours will all need to be upgraded or replaced if they are to remain functional.

Carbon-based fuels (coal, gas and oil) will need to be phased out in a low-carbon development pathway. As such, the bulk of infrastructure will need replacement.

Information and communication technology

21. Information and communications technology plays important roles in adapting to climate change. While some existing infrastructure will need upgrading (due to the risk of greater flooding) other networks will need expanding to improve communications (including distance learning) and reduce the need for travel.

Urban, industrial and coastal infrastructure

22. Very difficult decisions will need to be made about protecting coastal land and infrastructure from sustained sea-level rise. Increased risk of floods due to storms and sustained water shortages will complicate the situation further. Maintaining urban infrastructure in mega-cities in the face of climate change will be challenging in the

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