A NATIONAL ACADEMY PROJECT

It could also be a sign of indecisiveness and procrastination in the face of' complexity and uncertainty. Yet, as the pace of technological change COI- tin- ues to accelerate, indecision and inaction can be the most dangerous course of all.

As information technology continues to evolve, organizations in evcbry sector are grappling with the need to transform their basic philosophies and processes to collect, synthesize, manage, and control information. Corpora- tions and governments are reorganizing in a n effort to utilize technolol;y to enhance productivity, improve quality, and control costs. Entire industries have been restructured to better align with the realities of the digital age.

To date, the university stands apart, almost unique in its determination to moor itself to past traditions and practices, to insist o n performing its core activities much as it has done for decades. In spite of the information explo- sion and the profound impact of digital communications technology, the use of information and dissemination and learning remain f~ndarnen~tally unchanged in higher education. Most universities continue to ignore the technology cost learning curves so important in other sectors of society. They insist tlhat it remains simply too costly to implement technology o n a massive scale in instructional activities-which, of course, it does, as long as we insist o n maintaining their traditional character rather than re-engineering ecluc:a- tional activities to enhance productivity and quality. Our limited use of t.ech- nology thus far has been at the margins, to provide modest additlonal resources to classroom pedagogy or to attempt to extend the physical reach of' our current classroom-centered teaching paradigm. It is ironic indeed that the very institutions that have played such a profound role in developing the digital technology now reshaping our world are the most resistant to reshap- ing their activities to enable its effective use.

A NATIONAL ACADEMY PROJECT

In the United States, the National Academies (i.e., the National Acacierny of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Instituire of Medicine) have a unique mandate to monitor and sustain the health of the nation's research universities as key elements of the national research enter- prise and the source of the next generation of scientists, engineers, and other knowledge professionals. This role becomes particularly important during periods of rapid change. It was from this perspective that the presidents of our National Academies launched a project in 2000 to understand better the implications of information technology for the future of the research univer- sity. 1 was asked to chair the steering group for this effort, comprised of 'lead- ers with backgrounds in technology, higher education, and public policy.

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T h e premise of the National Academies study was a simple one. T h e rapid evolution of digital technology will present many challenges and opportuni- ties to higher education in general and the research university in particular.

Yet there is a sense that many of the most significant issues are neither well recognized nor understood by leaders of our ~iniversities or those who support and depend upon their activities.

T h e first phase of the project was aimed at addressing three sets of issues:

To identify those technologies likely to evolve in the near term (a decade or less) that could have a major impact o n the research uni- versity.

To examine the possible implications of these technology scenarios for the research university: its activities (teaching, research, service, outreach); its organization, structure, management, and financing;

and the impact o n the broader higher education enterprise and the environment in which it functions.

To determine what role, if any, there was for federal government and other stakeholders in the development of policies, programs, and investments to protect the valuable role and contributions of the research university during this period of change.

Our steering group met o n numerous occasions to consider these issues.

We visited major technology laboratories, such as Bell Labs and IBM Research Labs, and drew upon the expertise of the National Academy com- plex. In 2001, we convened 100 leaders from higher education, the IT indus- try, and the federal government, and several private foundations for a work- shop at the National Academy of Sciences.

There was a consensus that the extraordinary evolutionary pace of infor- mation technology is likely to continue for the next several decades and even could accelerate o n a superexponential slope. Photonic technology is evolv- ing at t:wice the rate of silicon chip technology, with miniaturization and wireless technology advancing even faster, implying that the rate of growth of network appliances will be incredible. For planning purposes, we can assume that within the decade we will have infinite computer power, infinite bandwidth, and ubiquitous connectivity (at least compared to current capa- bilities).

T h e event horizons for disruptive change are moving ever closer. T h e challenge of getting people to think about the implications of accelerating technology learning curves as well as technology cost-performance curves is very important. There are likely to be major technology surprises, compa- rable in significance to the appearance of the personal computer in the 1970s and the Internet: browser in 1994, but at more frequent intervals.

50 E'art 1: The New 21st Century Environment and its Implications for Universit~es

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T h e impact of information technology on the university will likely be pro- found, rapid, and discontinuous-just as it has been and will continue to be for the economy, our society, and our social institutions. It will affect our activities (teaching, research, outreach), our organization (academic struc- ture, faculty culture, financing and management), and the broader hig1ne.r education enterprise as it evolves into a global knowledge and learning industry.

Yet, for at least the near term, the university will continue to exist in much its present form, although meeting the challenge of emerging competi- tors in the marketplace will demand significant changes in how we tea'ch, how we conduct scholarship, and how our institutions are financed. Univer- sities must anticipate these forces, develop appropriate strategies, and make adequate investments if they are to prosper.

Over the longer term, the basic character and structure of the university may be challenged by the IT-driven forces of aggregation (e.g., new allianc:es, restructuring of the academic marketplace into a global learning and kno.wl,- edge industry) and disaggregation (e.g., restructuring of the academic disci,- plines, detachment of faculty and students from particular universiti~es, decoupling of research and education).

Although information technology will present many complex challenges and opportunities to university leaders, procrastination and inaction are t:hc most dangerous courses of all during a time of rapid technological change. To be sure, there are certain ancient values and traditions of the university that:

:should be maintained and protected, such as academic freedom, a ratio13a:l :spirit of inquiry, and liberal learning. But, just as it has in earlier times, t:hc university will have to transform itself once again to serve a radically change ing worlcl if it is to sustain these important values and roles.

Although information technology will continue its rapid evolution for t:he Foreseeable future, it is far more difficult to predict the impact of this technol.

~;,gy on human behavior and upon social institutions such as the university. 1t- is important that higher education develop mechanisms to sense the changes sthat are being driven by information technology and to understand whcrc lthese forces may drive the university. Because of the profound yet unpredict- able impact of this technology, it is important that institutional strategies iinclude: 1) the opportunity for experimentation, 2) the formation of alli- ances both with other academic institutions as well as with for-profit and, government organizations, and 3) the development of sufficient in-house expertise among the faculty and staff to track technological trends and assmess various courses of action.

To conclude, for the near term, information technology will drive compre- l~ensible if rapid, profound, and discontinuous change in the university. For the longer term (two decades and beyond), all bets are off. As noted, imp1ic:a-

Chapter 4: Preparing for the Revolution: The Future of the University in

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tions of a million-fold or billion-fold increase in the power of information technology are difficult even to imagine, much less to predict, for our world and, even more so, for our institutions.

THE FUTURE OF THE UNIVERSITY IN THE DIGITAL ACE