35. This total includes $US 45,490 million (1976) and $US 63,898.16 million (2000)
representing domestic debt; and $US 32,046.9 million (1976) and $US 123,629 million (2000)
representing fiscal and non-fiscal revenues.«.--■-■■=,.»-.-.,'.««-.-....--■ CHART1
TRANSC0M/946/Rev.1 s,-Page11 TYPEOFREVENUEINAFRICAJASPERCENTAGEOFTOTALREVENUE)
Types de revenus en Afrique (en pourcentage des revenus totaux)
40 35 30 25 20 15 10Taxessurrevenuselprofit; 33J5 Revenusneprovenonfpasdetaxeset'rofs 2.242.052.0S1.%
37.05 Taxessurtransactionsintirieuresrelativesauxmarchandesetservices TaxessurEecommerceettransactionsavedI'exterieur 16.36-1SJ8- 14.95 Contribution6Lsecuritesociale 233 T5T
2.382.42.S 197619771978197919801981,19821983198419851986198719881989 Ann6es SOURCE:AnnuairestatistiqueduFMIreIatifauxfinancespubliquos:Annies1982a1992
TRANSCOM/946/Rev.1 Page
12 CHART2 TRENDOFDOMESTICDEBTINAFRICA
Evolution de la dette interieure en Afrique
140000 120000 100000 80000 c60000 i 40000 20000—■ 1 45490
blob*:70604""
58636__
75544s
73398>
92915 Dettesi _~—-———81233 it£FJeures
74289
j3\
52672 197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987 Ann6es SOURCE:Nosestimations6partirdesdonn6estlitasdasstatlstlquasduFMIsurlasdSpensespubliquas.TRANSCOM/946/Rev. 1 Page 13
(b) Comparative analysis of the domestic resources in some regions of the world
i
36. In 1976, non-fiscal revenues in Africa accounted for only 20.16 per cent of public revenues compared to 79.84 per cent for fiscal revenues; the latter is distributed as follows:
(i) Domestic and foreign trade taxes 44.45 (Table 8 and 9);
(ii) Income and profit taxes 33.15 (Table 6);
(iii) Contribution to social security 2.24 (Table 7).
37. In all developing countries, 17.21 per cent of public resources was derived from non-fiscal revenues in 1976; (i.e. 82.79 from non-fiscal revenues); compared to 10 per cent (i.e. 90 per cent from fiscal revenues) for the world's standards (Table 5).
38. Tax revenues for developing countries were 47.58T 13.62 and 15.82 per cent respective derived from business taxes, income and profit taxes and contributions to social security. The world ratios for 1976 were 23.36, 38.37, and 28.27 per cent respectively.
39. It would be observed from the foregoing that:
(i) The bulk of public resotirces was derived from tax revenues; almost 80, 83 and 90 per cent respectively for Africa, the developing regions and the entire world;
(ii) In the developing regions, domestic and foreign business taxes accounted for the highest percentage of tax revenues (48 per cent in 1976); as against 44.45 and 23r36 per cent respectively for Africa and the rest of the world;
(iii) Income and profit taxes yielded more in the other parts of the world: 38.37 per cent in 1976 compared to 33.15 and 13.62 respectively in Africa and the developing countries;
(iv) The world's social security contribution rates were higher: 28.27 per cent in 1976, compared to 15.82 per cent and 2.24 per cent respectively for the developing regions and Africa.
(c) Some conclusions regarding the African region (Table 7-11) 40. By the year 2000, the distribution of revenues for Africa would be as follows:
(a) 17.28% of the public revenues derived from non-fiscal revenues; and
(b) 82.72% of the public revenues derived from tax revenues. This further divided as follows:
(i) 31.1 % of the public revenues derived from business taxes;
(ii) 48.4% of the public revenues derived from income and profit taxes; and (iii) 2.82% of public revenues derived from social security contributions.
.
41. With these projections, based on a three-year moving average, for the domestic official debt patterns in Africa, it will be possible to reach conclusions on setting specific targets for resource mobilization for each of the following components:
(a) An increase in the public revenues through taxes: 82.72 per cent by the 2000 compared to 79.84 per cent in 1976; i.e. from 1976-2000, a 2.88 per cent increase in 24 years; the realistic mobilization target to be achieved in this area is estimated as follows (Table 6-9):
99r359 - 25r586.2 = 288.3 per cent for the period 1976-2000
25,586.20 (i.e. an annual average rate of 12.01 per cent);
(b) A possible decrease in the public revenues accounted for by non-fiscal revenues:
17.28 per cent by the year 2000 as against 20.16 per cent in 1976; in such a way that the target of $US 20,755.9 millions by the year 2000 will be achieved for non-fiscal public revenues on the basis of a non-fiscal revenue growth rate of 57.37 per cent for the period 1976-2000, (i.e. an annual average rate of 2.39 per cent) (Table 4b).
(c) A considerable decrease from 58.67 per cent in 1976 to 33.94 per cent by the year 2000, in domestic public debt within the domestic resources, in such a way that over the period 1976-2000 a target growth rate of 35.65 per cent of domestic debt will be attained (i.e. an annual rate of 1.49 per cent) (Tables 10a, 10b and 11).
TRANSCOM/946/Rev. 1 Page 15
3. Past, recent and future trends in financial flows to Africa
Financial flows to Africa consist of external borrowing (loans), grants, and direct investment and remittances.
43. Financial flows to Africa are estimated at a total of $US 460.1 billion for the year 2000, compared to $US 183.9 billion in 1983.
(a) The external debt of Africa compared to other developing regions (i) The trends in Africa (Tables 12,13,14,15,16 and 17)
44. Africa's external debt volume is estimated at $US 431.792 billion by the year 2000 compared to $US 177.9 billion in 1983, with the following components:
(a) $US 144.3 billion (1983) and $US 294.9 billion (2000) for the long-term external debt, consisting of:
(i) $US 80.7 billion in 1983 for long-term official external debt (i.e. 55.9 per cent of the long-term external debt) as against $US 63.6 billion in 19!
for the long-term private debt (i.e. 44.1 per cent);
(ii) Long-term bilateral debt: $US 54.4 billion in 1983 (i.e. 37.7 per cent of the long-term external debt) consisting of $US 31.9 billion (i.e. 58.64 cent of the long-term bilateral debt) at concessional terms;
(iii) Long-term multilateral debt: $US 19.4 billion by the year 2000.
■
(b)
(c)
(d)
i
-$US 33.6 billion in 1983, compared to -$US 38.94 billion by the year 2000, for short-term external debt;
Decrease by the year 2000 in the external debt accounted for by the long-term debt: 81.1 per cent in 1983 as against only 68.3 per cent by the year 2000. This translates into an increase in short-term external loans: 18.9 per cent in 1983 as against 31.9 per cent by the year 2000;
Long-term external debt under concessional terms; $US 43.5 billion in 1983 i.e.
30.15 per cent of the long-term external debt as against 50.42 per cent by the year 2000 (i.e. $US 148.7 billion); thus, this will translate into a considerable increase in the share of the long-term external debt, accounted for by concessional loans.
It must be borne in mind that loans under concessional terms are the most suitable
for the financing of capital intensive investments, especially infrastructures (transport, communications, water, energy, etc.) due to the fact that they generally attract low interest rates (3.65 per cent on average for middle-income countries). Furthermore:
(i) The grace period is longer (7.64 years on average for low-income countries, as against 5.3 years for middle-income countries); and
(ii) The loan maturity is 25.2 and 17.2 years respectively for these two categories of countries, i.e. these terms provide some relief for the financial costs of long-term loans required for investments in transport and communications in order to make them competitive and financially profitable.
(ii) The trends in the developing regions of Asia and Latin America: (Table 21) 45. The external debt for these two developing regions is estimated at $US 236.2 billion and
$US 383.7 billion for 1983, respectively for Asia and Latin America.
46. These totals comprise:
a. For Asia
(i) $US 192.1 billion (1983) for the long-term external debt consisting of:
$US 111.1 billion for long-term external official debt (i.e. 57.83 per cent of the term debt) as against $US 81 billion for long-term private debt (i.e. 42.17 per cent of the long-long-term external debt);
$US 68.7 billion in 1983 for long-term bilateral debt (i.e. 35.8 per cent of the long-term external debt), including $US 45.3 billion (i.e. 65.94 per cent of long-term bilateral debt) at concessional terms; this ratio of 65.94 per cent is higher than the one (58.64 per cent) for Africa;
$US 42.4 billion in 1983 for multilateral external debt, including
$US 17.1 billion at concessional terms;
$US 62.4 billion for long-term external debt at concessional terms;
i.e. 30.15 per cent for Africa;
TRANSCOM/946/Rev.l Page 17
Short-terra debt: $US 44.1 billion in 1983, i.e. 18.7 per cent of Asia's external debt - a rate almost identical to Africa's (18.9 per cent).
For Latin America
■--:■
(i)
$US 321.2 billion of long-term external debt in 1983 (83.7 per cent of external debt) consisting of:$US 258.8 billion long-term official debt in 1983 (i.e. 80.6 per cent of long-term external debt) as against $US 62.4 billion (19.4 per cent) for long-term private external debt. With 55.9 per cent and 57.8 per cent respectively, Africa and Asia earmarked a lower percentage of their long-term external debt to long-term official loans;
$US 46 billion in 1983 of long-term bilateral debt (i.e. 14.32 of long-term external debt), as against 37.7 per cent and 35.8 per cent respectively for Africa and Asia. Of this sum of $US 46 billion,
$US 8.4. billion (18.3 per cent) is at concessional terms; Latin America comes far behind in the third place in comparison to Africa (58.46 per cent) and Asia (65.94 per cent) which respectively come second and first;
$US 266,6 billion (83 per cent of the long-term external debt) in 1983 for the long-term multilateral external debt including $US 3.9 billion at concessional terms (i.e. 31.71 per cent of long-term external debt at concessional terms);
$US 12.3 billion for the long-term external debt at concessional terms; i.e. 3.83 per cent of the long-term external debt; this is considerably lower that the figures recorded for Asia (32.48 per cent) and for Africa (30.15 per cent);
Short-term debt $US 8.6 billion; i.e. 2.24 per cent of the total external debt; as against 18.17 per cent and 18.9 per cent respectively for Asia and Africa.
(b) Grants for Africa: (Tables 18 and 19)
47. In 1980, grants given to Africa amounted to $US 6.0073 billion, compared to 28.3584 billion projected for the year 2000.
>
4. Assessment of available financial resources in Africa:
48. These financial resources comprise public revenues, domestic debt, external debt and grants to Africa; they are estimated at a total of $US 641.97 billion by the year 2000.
5. Assessment of resources for the financing of transport and communications in Africa:
(a) Projection to the year 2000 of public expenditures on transport and communications (Tables 22,23,24 and 25a)
49. An initial assessment of the financial resources required for transport and communications development in Africa will consist of projecting to the year 2000, on the basis of a series of statistical data covering 1974-1991, the volume of public expenditures for transport and communications in Africa.
50. The projected volume of expenditure by the year 2000 is estimated at $US 10.382 billion, i.e. an annual arithmetic average of $US 6.705 billions over the period 1974-2000; that translates into 1.28 per cent of the annual average ($US 524.2 billion) of public resources over the period 1986 to 2000.
(b) Assessment based on the UNTACDA 1 financial performance rate 51. Financial resources effectively mobilized for UNTACDA I programme are estimated at
$US 12.857 billion for the period 1978-1988, i.e. about $US 1.286 billion per annum, which translated (cf tables 3,12,14 and 20) into 0.21 per cent in 1988 of the total public resources ($US
604.82 billion).
52. With this annual rate of 0.21 per cent applied to resources forecast for year 2000, $US 1.0676 billion will be available per year for transport and communications.
53. These 1.28 and 0.21 per cent rates fell far short of the 2.92, 3.48 and 6.23 per cent!/
recently recorded respectively by Uganda (low-income country), Cameroon and Senegal (middle-income countries) (cf table 26).
LI N.B. (i) 6.23per cent= $1IS 176.617million
$US 2,834.777million (ii) 4.21 per cent » 2.92 + 3.48 + 6.23
3X100
TRANSCOM/946/Rev. 1 Page 19
54. The three rates (0.21%, 1.28% and 4.21%) thus identified in the three preceding paragraphs will be applied to the following three scenarios pertaining to the objective on the mobilization of annual financial resources for support to the development of transport and communications in Africa. This choice was made mainly on account of the fact that the three scenarios are based on experiences acquired: , :;
(i) during the implementation of the UNTACDA I programme;
(ii) by low revenue African countries; and
(iii) by intermediate revenue African countries. Another reason derives from the concern about realistically reconciling the pattern of annual resources earmarked for transport and communications in Africa with that of the sector's expenditures, the scenarios proposed are presented below:
- ■
(a) Assumption I:
(b) Assumption II:
(c) Assumption III:
0.0021 x $US 524.2 billion = $US 1.1 billion
0.0128 x $US 524.2 billion = $US 6.71 billion,.
0.042 x $US 524.2 billion - $US 22.069 billion.
6. Strategic targets for financial resources mobilization in Africa
55. The three above-mentioned low, medium and high scenarios will only be possible if all the components of total official resources closely follow over time the trends observed and projected for most of them, in such a way that an annual average of public resources totalling
$US 524.2 billion will be ensured over the period 1986-2000. Hence, the following strategic objectives will be required:
(a) Tax and profit revenues: (cf Table 4b)
56. Obtaining from this source of public revenues, an annual contributive average capacity of $US 34.00 billion from 1976-2000; i.e. 44.75 per cent of public revenues; this translates into raising from $US 37.864 billion in 1990 to $US 62.173 billion by the year 2000 the income and profit tax contributive capacity in Africa; i.e. an average annual 6.42 per cent growth rate for the period 1990 to 2000; such an annual growth seems quite achievable if the following appropriate steps are taken: