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Methodology for the estimation of the direct bilateral 2004 donor’s

resource availability 2005–2007

The definition of HIV and AIDS activities by OECD originally focused on the Health Sector—‘population/reproductive health’: ‘all activities related to sexually transmitted diseases and HIV/AIDS control e.g. information, education and communication; testing; prevention; treatment, care’.

The definition has been expanded to include:

• Sexually Transmitted Infection activities—which encompass prevention and care services, diagnosis and treatment and promotion of voluntary abstinence, from the education sector as well as the health sector.

• Prevention—client-initiated voluntary counselling and testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, information and education materials about AIDS prevention, blood safety and prevention strategies from the education sector as well as the health sector.

• Treatment and care—palliative care for people living with AIDS, treatment of opportunistic infections, access to essential AIDS-care programmes including drugs, prophylaxis for opportunistic infections.

• Social mitigation and support—promotion and protection of human rights, legal support and humanitarian assistance, from the social development sector.

Multiple-purpose Development Assistance Projects, whose main objective is not HIV or AIDS are not currently being reported as “HIV and AIDS”, however the part or parts of the project that include any or several of the above mentioned activities is considered as “AIDS” activity.

Data provided as the 2004 commitments from donor countries in this report were obtained from multiple sources. UNAIDS and the Kaiser Family Foundation conducted primary data collection from the governments of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Commission during the first half of 2005. For other donor countries previous UNAIDS estimates or estimates from the OECD Creditor Reporting System (CRS) were used. Data were also obtained from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.

For the United States, final Congressional appropriations were considered to be commitments. Disbursements, which often lag commitments, are the actual expenditure of obligated funds.

Contributions made by donors to the Global Fund were considered to be disbursed by donors in full, even if the Global Fund did not disburse them in that same year. Both bilateral funding and Global Fund contributions were collected and analyzed. All Global Fund contributions were adjusted to represent 60% of the total, reflecting the Global Fund’s grant distribution through 2004 for HIV/AIDS.

Data were collected for fiscal year 2004, as defined by the donor: the United States.

FY, October 1 to September 30; the fiscal years for Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom are April 1 to March 31. The EC, France, Germany, and Italy use the calendar year. The Global Fund’s fiscal year is the calendar year. In some cases, therefore, data obtained directly from donors on their fiscal year 2004 contributions to

the Global Fund may differ from amounts reported on the Global Fund’s website by calendar year.

Other than contributions provided by donor governments to the Global Fund, UNAIDS, or to a UN agency for an AIDS-specific purpose (e.g., the “3 by 5”

Initiative), general contributions to UN entities (e.g., the World Bank’s IDA or UN country membership fees), are not counted as part of a donor government’s AIDS assistance even if the multilateral organization in turn directs some of these funds to AIDS. Rather, they would be counted as AIDS funding provided by the multilateral organization. Funding for international HIV and AIDS research was not included in the total donor’s contributions.

Where data could not be obtained directly from donors, data from 2003 were used as a preliminary estimate. Data were obtained from all G7 and EC governments except Japan; data from Japan are from 2003 and are considered to be a preliminary estimate only, mainly because of incomplete reporting of their 2004 bilateral contributions.

Totals from the United Kingdom, while obtained directly, are also considered preliminary; United Kingdom policy is not to separate the resources for AIDS from sexual and reproductive health. Totals from the United Kingdom may include selected sexual and reproductive health activities but every attempt was made to review these to establish the proportionality focused on AIDS. Further analysis of these data must be conducted. For other members of the DAC, data were reported directly to UNAIDS by Australia, Finland, Ireland, Sweden and Switzerland; for Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal and Spain estimates were based on 2003 data provided either to UNAIDSi or to the OECD.

Final figures reported to the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the OECD for 2004 will be available by the end of 2005; OECD/DAC statistics might not match the reports by donor countries because in DAC statistics, “aid to HIV/AIDS control”

is currently classified under the “population/reproductive health” sector under code 13040, exclusively, and as described above, potentially underestimating the multipurpose and multisector projects that include one part for HIV and AIDS but whose main purpose is not HIV/AIDS, as well as the non-health projects.

All 2004 figures were adjusted by average exchange rates in 2004 to obtain US$

equivalent for 2004, based on foreign exchange rate historical data available from the U.S. Federal Reserveii.

Methodology of the projection of resource availability for HIV and AIDS 2004–2007

Data on HIV/AIDS funding for 1996–2002 were used to estimate resources available 2004–2007 with the information available on pledges and commitments as of June 2004. This dataset included information on bilateral, nongovernmental organization, foundations and domestic sources of funding devoted to HIV/AIDS programming by country (donor and receiver), and year. Data were aggregated by region and subsequent estimates of the total resources available by region and year were calculated.

Additional data related to current expenditures and future commitments were collected from the Kaiser Family Foundation, the Global Fund, and the Regional AIDS Initiative for Latin America and the Caribbean (SIDALAC). For regions receiving funding from the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS, it was assumed that this would represent the majority of bilateral funding. For the other

regions, based on data from previous years, a 33% yearly increase in bilateral funding was assumed on the assumption that other donors would concentrate their new funding on countries not supported by the U.S. Emergency Plan and the Global Fund..

Global Fund resources were estimated using their data on approved grants and expected disbursements by region. Multilateral funds (primarily the World Bank with additional funds made available through the UNAIDS joint fundraising with its cosponsors) were assumed to remain constant. Nongovernmental organization and private foundation resources were also assumed to remain constant per region through 2007. This assumption was based on the fact that most of the new money that has already been committed will be managed through the other mechanisms (e.g. the Gates Foundation support to the Global Fund). Limited data exists for low- and middle-income countries (with the exception of Latin America). The under-reporting revealed by the Latin American country case studies was applied worldwide, as was the growth rate in domestic spending (conservative estimate as the epidemic is growing more slowly in Latin America than in other regions). It is estimated that the largest share of sources of funding will come from bilateral donors mostly driven by the U.S. Emergency Plan (75% of total bilateral funds for 2007). The share of domestic resources would decrease as bilateral funding grows, but the absolute amount would be 46% greater in 2007 than in 2003. Overall, a 100% increase in total resource availability is estimated from 2003 to 2007.

Based on these projections, resources available would increase from approximately US$ 8.2 billion in 2005 to US$ 10 billion in 2007, with an estimated US$ 7 billion from bilateral and multilateral sources expected in 2007.

i UNAIDS/PCB(14)/03, Table3/figure 5, page 8.

ii U.S. Federal Reserve, H. 10 Release (release date of June 6, 2005;

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/Hist/dat00_eu.htm)

WFP, UNDP, UNFPA, UNODC, ILO, UNESCO, WHO and the World Bank. Based in Geneva, the UNAIDS secretariat works on the ground in more than 75 countries worldwide.

UNAIDS 20 AVENUE APPIA CH-1211 GENEVA 27 SWITZERLAND

T (+41) 22 791 36 66

F (+41) 22 791 41 87 WWW.UNAIDS.ORG

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