L’impact des changements d’usage du sol sur l’hydrologie

Dans la forêt tropicale péruvienne, le déboisement est évalué sur la période 2004-2005 a

une surface de 1174 km

2

5.2.4 L’impact du changement hydrologique au niveau journalier sur l’hydrologie.

(Oliveira et al., 2007). Dans notre étude, nous utilisons les

données de sol de la FAO comme condition initiale de capacité en eau de sols tout en

négligeant de facto les changements d’usage des sols. Une étude de sensibilité avec

différents scenarios d’occupation du sol permettraient par ailleurs d’évaluer les impacts

hydrologiques.

Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous nous sommes focalisés sur des données et modèles

mensuels, mais une perspective serait bien sur d’évaluer les impacts des changements

CHAPITRE 5. Conclusion générale et perspectives 146

climatiques sur l’hydrologie au niveau journalier. Pour réaliser cet objectif, des

techniques de ‘downscalling’ au niveau journalier devrait être réalisées et les sorties

appliquées sur des modèles hydrologiques opérant au pas de temps journalier. Ces

résultats permettront ainsi de quantifier l’impact des changements climatiques sur les

extrêmes hydrologiques (étiages et crues).

5.2.5 Autres perspectives

Enfin divers autres perspectives peuvent aussi être mentionnées telles que :

• Validation des données d’évapotranspiration (données des bacs type ‘A’ ou de

lysimètres) par comparaison avec les équations empiriques d’évapotranspiration.

• Evaluation des méthodes d’interpolation des variables climatiques.

• Evaluation des tendances des extrêmes hydrométéorologiques en utilisant des données

journalières sur de longues périodes pour évaluer les changements climatiques.

• Régionalisation des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques pour évaluer les

comportements hydrologiques dans des bassins non jaugés.

147

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