1.1 Background
Over 2.2 million people globally have lost their lives in natural hazard-related disasters (excluding epi-demics) over the past three decades (1975-2008).1 In the same period, associated economic losses were USD 1,527.6 billion, with developing countries bearing most of the cost. Population growth and migration to areas of high risk (e.g. coastal areas, drylands and urban centres) are raising the numbers of those affected by hazards - turning hazards into disasters. More and more infrastructure is built in areas that are exposed to natural hazards, setting up development investments to be overturned by disasters.
Environmental degradation contributes to the above statistics. The Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2009 identified ecosystems decline as one of the major drivers of risk. This conclusion echoes the internationally agreed Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) which identified ecosystems degradation as an underlying risk factor. Degraded ecosystems can exacerbate the impacts of natural hazards
and contribute directly to disaster risk. For instance, deforested hillsides can result in flash floods and landslides. On the other hand, natural hazards can cause direct damage to the environment, pre-venting access to critical resources such as water, food, fuel and shelter, thus increasing vulnerability to hazard impacts.
The role of ecosystems in disaster reduction
The reduction of disaster risk is one of the most undervalued services provided by healthy, func-tioning ecosystems such as wetlands, forests and coral reefs. Since the South Asian earthquake and tsunami in 2004, there has been increased inter-national awareness of the importance of ecosys-tem management for protecting populations and infrastructures against extreme events. Ecosystems can serve as natural buffers or protective barriers, for instance through flood abatement, slope stabiliza-tion and coastal protecstabiliza-tion against storm surges.
At the same time, ecosystems increase coping capacities of communities against hazard impacts
Following the South Asian tsunami in 2004, concerted efforts, such as this UNEP project in Sri Lanka, to restore mangroves have been undertaken to provide coastal communities with additional natural buffers against small-scale tsunamis, tropical cyclones, storm surges and strong winds, as well as to support local livelihoods
by providing for basic needs and supporting liveli-hoods. For example, coral reefs and mangroves can reduce impact of storm surges by dissipating wave energy, while providing natural habitats for replenishing fish stocks as well as fuelwood and building materials in the case of mangroves.
Climate change
Climate change will further magnify disaster risk.
There is major concern that increased frequency and intensity of extreme hydro-meteorological events will result in a corresponding increase in the number or magnitude of disasters. Over the last two decades (1988-2007), 76 percent of all disaster events were hydrological or meteorological in nature, accounting for 45 percent of the total deaths and 79 percent of total economic losses caused by natural hazards.2 Moreover, climate change will affect underlying drivers of vulnerability, such as food insecurity, declining ecosystem ser-vices and new patterns of migration, and therefore increase risk.
According to the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (2007), the intensity of tropical cyclones is likely to increase with climate change. Tropical cyclones generate multiple hazards, such as strong winds, coastal storm surges and heavy precipitation resulting in floods and landslides. With sea level rise, climate change will intensify storm surges and increase coastal erosion.
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) with their limited territories and low elevation are at the front line of climate change impacts. SIDS are amongst the countries most at risk from tropical cyclones.3 According to the GAR (2009), SIDS have the highest proportion of their population exposed to tropical cyclones and related hazards, experiencing a far greater relative exposure to highly destructive Category 3 and 4 storms. In terms of economic exposure, countries with the highest relative expo-sure are almost all SIDS, with small economies that inhibit their ability to absorb economic shocks generated by disasters including those induced by weather-related hazards.
While SIDS are not major contributors to climate change and there are limited options for them to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, they can
be much more proactive in adapting to climate change and mitigating against its impacts by addressing underlying risk factors which include environmental degradation. Ecosystems provide vital resources that SIDS depend on for basic needs, jobs and economic growth, yet many SIDS continue to experience significant ecosystems decline, especially of coral reefs, wetlands, sea grasses and forests. Ecosystems degradation is reducing SIDS’
natural protective barriers and its major sources of livelihood, as they become increasingly vulnerable to hydro-meteorological hazards and sea level rise in a changing global climate.
Assessing disaster risk
International efforts, guided by the internationally agreed Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), are working to reduce vulnerability to natural hazards through a broad range of interventions, including among others early warning systems, preparedness planning, land-use planning and better ecosystems management. Most of these efforts are guided by risk information that identifies the potential natural hazards and the extent to which lives, livelihoods and critical assets are vulnerable to the damaging impacts of those hazards.
Although numerous risk assessment methodologies are available, efforts to develop common guide-lines and standards have only recently begun.
Moreover, assessment methodologies do not yet adequately identify the changes to risk and vulner-ability that is attributable to environmental change, including ecosystems degradation and climate change. As such, these assessments fail to identify critical aspects of risk and vulnerability, and as a result do not provide sufficient information for devel-oping ecosystem-based risk reduction options.
The question, however, remains whether ecosystems can provide effective protection against extreme events and support adaptation to climate change.
Scientific-based research that links ecosystem services with risk reduction and adaptation remain limited, yet this information is vital to inform and influence policies and decisions that affect devel-opment, the environment and risk management.
Further evidence is still needed to demonstrate that better ecosystems management can reduce vulnerability through effective hazard mitigation and livelihood sustainability.
1.2 Purpose and scope of RiVAMP
The Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Development Project (RiVAMP) seeks to develop an assessment methodology that takes into account environmental parameters in the analysis of disas-ter risk and vulnerability. It is targeting national and local government policymakers and decision mak-ers, especially land-use and spatial development planners and key actors involved in environmental management and disaster management. Specifi-cally, RiVAMP provides national and local decision makers with an evidence-based assessment tool to help them make informed choices that reduce risk and support sustainable development through improved ecosystems management.
What is new about this assessment tool is that it takes into account environmental factors, including ecosystems degradation and climate change, as a key component in the risk assessment process. The idea is to demonstrate how ecosystems contribute towards reducing risk and vulnerability, in addition to other benefits such as supporting local liveli-hoods and protecting biodiversity. The information generated could then be used to advocate for the enhancement and maintenance of ecosystems for sustainable development.
As a pilot initiative, RiVAMP has developed a methodology that is applicable to SIDS or coastal environments and focuses on tropical cyclones and their secondary effects (coastal storm surges, flooding, strong winds and landslides). However, the long-term perspective is to develop related meth-odologies under RiVAMP which could be applied in other ecosystems, namely mountains, river basins (including low-lying deltas) and drylands.
The RiVAMP methodology combines the use of applied science and stakeholder consultation processes which allows for improved data trian-gulation, balancing the technical analysis with stakeholder perspectives and experiences. The technical component consisted of remote sens-ing analysis, Geographic Information System (GIS) mapping, and modelling the effects of coral and sea grass on the coastline under rising sea level conditions and storm surges. The science-based analysis is complemented by stakeholder interviews and consultation workshops.
This report details the findings and results of pilot-testing the RiVAMP methodology in Jamaica. A separate publication of the RiVAMP methodology which will provide detailed, step-by-step guidelines on how to apply and replicate the methodology is scheduled to be released shortly.
Once a small fishing village, Negril is famous for its white sand beaches and laid-back atmosphere
1.3 Jamaica as a pilot country
Jamaica was selected as the first country for the pilot for several reasons. A high coastal popula-tion density coupled with frequent meteorological hazards, particularly tropical cyclones, make the country highly exposed to disasters. As a small island state, Jamaica is also highly exposed to sea level rise which could exacerbate the secondary impacts of tropical cyclones along the coast. At the same time, Jamaica’s diverse ecosystems and rich biodiversity co-exist with a dynamic international tourism industry and growing population, exert-ing heavy development pressures on the natural environment. In this regard, RiVAMP provides an opportunity to feed into decision-making processes at national and local levels with respect to sustain-able coastal development and risk reduction.
Finally, UNEP’s Caribbean Environment Programme (CEP) based in Kingston and the Regional Office of Latin America and the Caribbean (ROLAC) could offer important project support and guidance on maximizing project results.
It was necessary to focus on a defined study area within Jamaica in order to limit the amount of data required for the analysis. After a consultative pro-cess with several national government agencies, Negril located in the western end of the country was selected. Like many coastal areas around Jamaica, Negril’s natural environment is under threat from growing urban and tourism
develop-ment. The results of the pilot and insights gained from stakeholder consultations, therefore, also remain applicable to other coastal, tourism-based areas in Jamaica.
During the first UNEP mission in July 2009, beach ero-sion in Negril was highlighted by the national gov-ernment as an urgent priority and hence became a major focus of the RiVAMP assessment. As a result, the project team focused on coastal ecosystems, particularly coral reefs and sea grasses. While other important ecosystems such as mangroves and peatlands (wetlands) were found in the study area, the lack of readily available data resulted in their exclusion from the technical analysis. However, some key information on mangroves and peatlands was obtained through stakeholder consultations and the few available reference materials provided by national agencies.
The project examined the impacts of tropical cyclones, particularly storm surges and flooding, as well as the potential impacts of climate change under rising sea level conditions. Environmental features were analyzed to determine the extent to which coral reefs and sea grasses serve as a natural protective barrier by protecting shorelines against storm surges and sea level rise. Satellite imagery analysis, modelling and GIS mapping supported this analysis. On the other hand, stakeholder consulta-tions at the national and parish levels and in two selected communities focused on understanding linkages between ecosystems, drivers of ecosystem
Protruding cliffs in the West End section of Negril also attract tourists for the stunning ocean views and sunsets
degradation and socio-economic vulnerability.
Annex 2 describes the pilot assessment process and Annex 3 provides further details on the methodology used for the technical analyses.
1.4 Timeline for the RiVAMP Project
The project comprised of three sequential core activities:
1. Development of the assessment tool and guidance material (February – June 2009) To initiate the process, a brainstorming exercise within UNEP was held in February 2009 to deter-mine the scope and approach in developing the assessment tool and guidance material. Scientific and operational partner organizations and networks were identified to provide guidance and technical inputs in project development. In May 2009, an Expert Group meeting was convened in Geneva, Switzerland, to agree on the methodological requirements (namely data sets, scale, etc.) and design a pilot study. Discussion outputs from the meeting provided the basis for drafting the assess-ment methodology to be pilot tested in Jamaica.
2. Pilot-testing the RiVAMP methodology (July – November 2009)
Field-testing of the RiVAMP methodology comprised two major missions to Jamaica. A scoping mission took place in July 2009 primarily to introduce the project in the country, identify an implementing partner to coordinate project activities, select a study area, and initiate data collection. Also during the scoping mission, a Project Advisory Group rep-resented by national agencies involved in disaster management, environment and other major devel-opment sectors (water, urban develdevel-opment, etc.) was established to provide guidance and feedback on the pilot process and results.
A follow-up mission in October-November 2009 represented the core field component of the project. Over a three-week period, stakeholder consultations at the national and parish levels and in the selected communities of Whitehall and Little Bay in Negril were undertaken. Additional interviews and meetings with key actors including from various government agencies, the United Nations
Develop-ment Programme (UNDP) and the private sector were organized.
Results from the pilot have been consolidated into a final report which will be presented in Kingston and Negril (scheduled in March 2010). Presentation of the final report will provide a further opportunity to validate results.
3. Document finalization and next steps (March – May 2010)
Based on lessons learned from the pilot assessment, UNEP will finalize the assessment methodology into a guidance document. Both the guidance docu-ment and final report of the pilot assessdocu-ment will be peer reviewed and revised accordingly.
A follow-up strategy for Jamaica will be prepared to act on proposed recommendations of the pilot assessment. Other partners in Jamaica and in the region involved in similar activities will be consulted for possible collaboration.
1.5 Partners involved
RiVAMP is a project implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in col-laboration with the Government of Jamaica, repre-sented by the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).
Within UNEP, the Division of Environmental Policy Implementation (DEPI) and the Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA)-GRID Europe have been the main partners involved from the outset in project formulation and implementation. The UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Secretariat based in Geneva, Switzerland, also contributed to the conceptual development of the project. At the country-level, the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) has been instrumental in mobilizing key national agencies to contribute to the process and coordinating stakeholder workshops and the fieldwork component of the project.
1.6 Report structure
This report is divided into four following sections:
1. An introductory section providing background information about the country;
2. Key findings based on the scientific analysis and
stakeholder consultations:
(i) Ecosystem services and major drivers of deg-radation;
(ii) Linking ecosystems and shoreline protection;
and
(iii) Linking ecosystems, livelihoods and vulnerability.
National consultations with government stakeholders held in Kingston (October 2009)
3. Proposed solutions describing general recom-mendations for Negril on how to support sus-tainable coastal development for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation;
4. Annexes.