Indicators and trends

Table 1.6 shows that the 40 greatest pro-ducers of energy in 1989 included 13 coun-tries of the WHO European Region, while the 40 greatest energy consumers included 20 European countries. In addition, Euro-pean Member States comprise half of the 30 countries with the greatest energy consump-tion per head of populaconsump-tion [3].

In the period 1980–1991, the annual aver-age growth rate in global energy consump-tion was 3.8 % in the countries with middle incomes, but only 1.5 % in the high income countries. Table 1.7 shows the annual aver-age growth rates for some European

coun-tries between 1980 and 1991. Many of the in-dustrialized countries of the world reduced the energy intensity per unit of economic output. In the Federal Republic of Germany, for example, GNP increased by 60 % be-tween 1970 and 1990, while primary energy consumption grew by only 16 % and emissions of most air pollutants declined (Fig. 1.1).

Energy balances and indicators of energy production and consumption in the EU, CCEE and NIS suggest significant differ-ences. Fig. 1.2 shows the actual and pro-jected changes in final energy consumption (that is, consumption of primary and sec-ondary energy by end-use sectors: industry, households, transport, services and agricul-ture) in these three groups of countries be-tween 1985 and 2005. The trends in the CCEE and NIS, however, depend on the pace of economic recovery and the nature of development. Fig. 1.3 shows the actual and projected changes in energy production.

The major energy sources currently used in western Europe and the CCEE are oil and

Table 1.6: Ranking of WHO European Member States among the 40 greatest producers and consumers of energy in the world, 1989

coal, respectively; the main fuels in the NIS are oil and gas. The NIS have large resources of natural gas, oil and coal. For example, the known resources of natural gas in the Rus-sian Federation will last about 60 years at

current rates of production. The greatest in-crease in consumption in the NIS is pre-dicted to be in gas [18]. Coal consumption is predicted to decrease in western Europe, with increases in the use of other fuels.

In-Table 1.7: Energy production and consumption in some countries of the WHO European Region

Fig. 1.1: Trends in economic growth, primary energy consumption and emissions in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1970–1990

Energy 43

digenous coal is unlikely to be displaced as the major source of energy in the CCEE.

Fig. 1.4–1.9 inclusive show the actual and projected structures of energy production and consumption in the EU, CCEE and former USSR.

The rises in the price of oil in 1973 and 1979 profoundly affected energy demand in western European countries. These coun-tries responded with structural changes in

their energy sectors, primarily increasing energy efficiency and reducing dependence on imported oil [19]. Nuclear power is now on the decline in western Europe, owing to concerns about capital costs, the risks of ac-cidents and the problems of the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The share of re-newable energy (from sources such as the sun, wind and biomass) has increased, par-ticularly in Scandinavia.

Fig. 1.2: Actual and projected changes in total final energy consumption in the CCEE, EU and NIS, 1985–2005

Fig. 1.3: Actual and projected changes in energy production in the CCEE, EU and NIS, 1985–2005

Fig. 1.4: Actual and projected structure of energy production in the EU, 1985–2005

Fig. 1.5: Actual and projected structure of energy production in the CCEE, 1985–2005

Energy 45

Fig. 1.6: Actual and projected structure of energy production in the former USSR, 1985–2005

Fig. 1.7: Actual and projected structure of final energy consumption in the EU, 1985–2005

In the 1990s, the trend towards improv-ing energy efficiency in conversion and in in-dustrial and domestic use is likely to con-tinue. In addition, many countries in the Re-gion are beginning to adjust their energy

pol-icies to discourage the use of fuels that emit greenhouse gases. For instance, Germany has undertaken to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 25 % by the year 2005, and many other countries will cut emissions or

Fig. 1.8: Actual and projected structure of final energy consumption in the CCEE, 1985–2005

Fig. 1.9: Actual and projected structure of final energy consumption in the former USSR, 1985–2005

Energy 47 stabilize them at 1990 levels [20]. These

pol-icies are likely to lead to an increased use of natural gas and renewable sources.

Belgium, France and Switzerland produce over 60 % of their electricity from nuclear power, but in other western European coun-tries where nuclear energy is used its share is much smaller. Hydropower currently ac-counts for some 12 % of total EU electricity production, and this percentage share is likely to be maintained [21]. The contribu-tion of renewable sources is small, although the economics of these sources is increas-ingly favourable. Their unit costs will under-cut those of other fuels and thus make them competitive only in the long term.

Until the late 1980s, Soviet-produced fuels dominated energy supply and demand in the CCEE. Since then, however, these countries have had to pay hard currency for their energy imports. The countries rely heavily on domestically produced (sulfur-rich) coal.

This is the most important energy source in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. The share of coal in the CCEE is more than three times that in western Euro-pean countries [17].

The former USSR did not really feel the shocks of the rises in oil prices in the 1970s because of its self-sufficiency in energy; it was the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. Consequently, energy consumption pat-terns continued almost unchanged until the late 1980s.

Soviet energy policy focused on coal pro-duction until the late 1970s, when it shifted to oil, and then moved towards gas when oil production levelled off in the 1980s [22].

Coal accounts for nearly half of the domestic consumption in the CCEE, while indigenous supplies of natural gas account for 52 % of domestic energy consumption in the NIS [23].

Among the most important predicted trends in the European Region is the in-crease in the use of gas, particularly in west-ern countries and the NIS. These countries are shifting to gas from coal as part of an at-tempt to meet targets for emissions of green-house gases, and to diversify supplies of

energy. The NIS have vast natural reserves of gas to exploit. The CCEE, however, have neither the economic nor the natural re-sources to be able to diversify energy supply.

Although expected to use more gas, the CCEE will not do so to the same extent as western Europe and the NIS.

The amount of energy needed to produce a unit of economic output (energy intensity) is changing. In most countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) the ratio of fuel use to GNP (or GDP) fell by about one quarter in the past decade. This has been in-terpreted as indicating an increase in the energy efficiency of the economic systems. It has been suggested that much greater in-creases can be secured, so that a sustainable energy supply can be achieved without any basic changes in lifestyle or population, for example. It seems more likely, however, that a change in behaviour towards more careful use of energy will also be required; energy conservation will be needed, as well as energy efficiency.

Conserving energy and increasing energy efficiency are crucial economic and environ-mental health issues in all countries of the Region, but particularly in the economies in transition. Incentives for improved energy ef-ficiency are needed, as is investment in effi-cient production. More effieffi-cient technology and more strictly enforced standards, as well as incentives, are essential for success. The establishment of international infrastruc-tures (such as pipelines and power lines) will help to encourage fuel competition, allow the export and import of energy, and facili-tate the use of available productive capac-ities during peak periods or emergencies.

According to the Globe I scenario, the use of energy in Europe will increase by 44 % be-tween 1990 and 2010 [15]. The increase is to be lower (25 %) in the western countries and higher (55 %) in eastern ones. Considerable growth in the use of fossil fuels is predicted.

The share of other fuels is predicted to in-crease slowly from 14 % in 1990 to 16 % in 2010. The use of nuclear energy is estimated to increase by about 45 %. As 29 of the 36

nuclear power plants under construction in Europe in 1991 were in the CCEE and NIS, these countries will account for most of the increase. Energy intensities in various parts of Europe will continue to differ substan-tially. According to Globe I, the use of energy per unit of GDP will be more than twice as high in the eastern than in the west-ern countries of the WHO European Region.

According to the Globe II scenario, only a slight increase in total energy use (4 %) is ex-pected [15]. Much attention will be paid to energy conservation, and to the use of ener-gy-efficient installations in all sectors. The overall use of fossil energy in Europe will de-crease by 10 %. This will result from growth in the use of renewable energy sources such as the sun, wind, water and biomass.

Industrialization is a major component of economic development and related improve-ments in the quality of life, but it carries the potential for environmental degradation.

Many decisions in the industrial sector affect environmental health. Inappropriate choices can lead to environmental consequences

1.5 Industry

that may offset many of the benefits of indus-trialization.

1.5.1 Indicators and trends

Member States of the WHO European Re-gion comprised 21 of the 40 countries with the largest industrial output in the world in 1989, and about half of the 20 countries with the largest output of chemicals, machinery and transport equipment, and processed food in 1990 (Table 1.8). Between 1980 and 1991, the average rate of annual industrial growth in the Region ranged from –1.6 % in Hungary to 6.0 % in Turkey [1]. From 1965 to 1989, Turkey was the only European Member State among the 20 countries of the world with the highest average annual indus-trial growth, and the Federal Republic of Germany and the Netherlands were among the 20 countries with the lowest growth [3].

Industrial production in the EU has been projected to grow by nearly 55 % from 1985 to 2005, but by only about 35 % from 1990 to 2005 (Fig. 1.10). The annual average percen-tage change was 2.9 % in 1986–1990, and is projected at 1.9 % in 1991–1995, 2.3 % in 1996–2000 and 1.8 % in 200l–2005. These trends indicate rather moderate industrial growth [17].

Fig. 1.10: Actual and projected growth of industrial production in the EU, 1985–2005

Industry 49

Table 1.8: Ranking of WHO European Member States among the 40 countries of the world with the largest industrial output in 1989,and among the 20 countries with the largest output of chemicals, machinery and transport equipment and processed food in 1990

The period 1989–1992 saw not only re-cession in most of the Region’s countries but also a drastic decrease in the economic out-put of the countries in transition. Table 1.9 shows the decline in net material product

and industrial output in some of the CCEE and NIS in 1990–1992. The CCEE as a whole showed decreases in net material product of 9.9 %, 14.4 % and 10 % in 1990, 1991 and 1992, respectively. The decreases

Table 1.9: Percentage annual change in the net material product and in industrial production in some of the CCEE and NIS, 1990–1992

Table 1.10: Changes and structure of industrial output (at comparable prices) in Hungary, 1991/1992

Agriculture 51 in industrial output were even greater:

15.2 %, 19.6 % and 11.8 %. In the CCEE as a whole, industrial output fell over 40 % from 1989 to 1992; some countries had a lower in-dustrial output in 1992 than in 1975 [9].

As Table 1.9 shows, trends in the NIS are similar, although showing some delays.

Metallurgy, mining and engineering have been affected most, with light industry and some food processing industries also heavily depressed. Construction output has fallen less than that of industry. Table 1.10 indi-cates these processes, using the example of Hungary.

The structure of industry is an important indicator of both the stage of development and of environmental impact. The structures of industry in the western countries of the Region and the CCEE and NIS differ widely.

After the Second World War large, energy-and resource-intensive sectors such as metal-lurgy, coal mining, construction materials and power production dominated the indus-trial development of the CCEE and NIS.

The types of fuel and the mostly outdated, ineffective technologies used led to consider-able environmental pollution and serious threats to human health. The western econ-omic pattern, however, changed consider-ably in recent decades, relying increasingly on cleaner sectors and service-type indus-tries.

An important feature of the current struc-tural changes in the CCEE and NIS is the growing share of small economic entities.

The share of those employing fewer than 50 people has increased in all the countries. In 1992, for example, small organizations in Hungary doubled their 1991 industrial out-put and more than doubled their share in total industrial output (from 6.4 % in 1991 to 14 % in 1992). In 1992, however, 20 % of in-dustrial organizations with more than 50 staff employed about 86 % of industrial workers and produced 86 % of the industrial output and 93 % of exports [24].

Light, labour-intensive industries (such as textiles, clothing and footwear) are expected to remain highly important in the European Region. They contribute nearly 4 % of the

GDP and provide some 2.5 million jobs in the EU [25]. These sectors have special im-portance in the southern countries of the Re-gion, and the low cost of labour and factories in the CCEE and NIS provide good chances for their development as well.

The high-technology sectors are growing in the more developed parts of the Region.

The electronics and information technology industry contributes about 5 % of the GDP of the EU. Its growth rate was high in the 1980s and this trend is expected to continue.

By the end of the 1990s, this industry doubled its share of the GDP and thus is ex-pected to outstrip such major industries as chemicals and cars [25]. The chemical in-dustry, however, remains a major, prosper-ous industry in the Region, mostly in the more developed countries. The iron and steel industry will be increasingly influenced by resource economy efforts, that is, more ef-ficient use of its products. Major restructur-ing and partial reconstruction of these indus-tries is expected in the CCEE and NIS in the long term.

In recent years, industrial decision-makers have strongly shifted their policy towards the protection of the environment. They no longer see this goal solely as a hindrance to the growth of production. The most notice-able developments are taking place in the western countries of the Region, with an in-creased focus on environmental manage-ment and auditing, instigated both by regu-lations and by commercial competition for consumers with a greater awareness of envi-ronmental issues.

The ways in which agriculture meets the population’s demand for food have changed greatly over the last few decades, and change continues. The difficulties in providing suffi-cient food in Europe in the period following the end of the Second World War led to pro-found changes in countries’ agricultural

pol-1.6 Agriculture

Table 1.11: Characteristics of and changes in agriculture in groups of countries in the WHO European Region, 1977–1990

Agriculture 53 icies. Farmers were encouraged to adopt

dif-ferent practices that would raise food pro-duction. In the western countries, this had impressive results. Farm output increased rapidly and clear signs that supply was out-stripping demand appeared by the late 1960s. Countries then adopted different measures to limit production. For example, milk quota restrictions were introduced in Finland; in 1968, the European Community Mansholt plan proposed a range of measures aimed at checking farm output. In contrast, food production in most of the eastern coun-tries of the Region remained in deficit.

1.6.1 Indicators and trends

Between 1980 and 1991, the average annual rate of agricultural growth in the Region ranged from –2.5 % in Bulgaria to 3.71 % in the Netherlands, with a world average of 2.6 %. In 1991, the share of agriculture in the GDP ranged from 1–2 % in Belgium and Germany (excluding the eastern Länder) to 20 % in Latvia and Lithuania [1]. With the exception of a few countries, this share has significantly decreased worldwide in the last 20 years.

Of all the economic sectors in the Euro-pean Region, agriculture is one of the most heterogeneous. For example, farms vary widely in size. The EU (excluding the former German Democratic Republic) had about 8.2 million farms in 1989–1990; 7 % were larger than 50 ha and 60 % were smaller than 5 ha. The average farm size was 4.0 ha in Greece and 68.0 ha in the United Kingdom;

there are few data for the eastern countries of the Region [26].

Table 1.11 summarizes some of the im-portant characteristics of and changes in ag-riculture in the CCEE, the former USSR and the other countries of the Region during 1977–1990. The former USSR had by far the most agricultural land both in absolute terms and per head of population, and the CCEE the highest percentage of irrigated land [19].

Between 1978 and 1990, total agricultural production increased by about 15 % in the

USSR, 9 % in the western countries of the Region and 8 % in the CCEE. Agricultural production per head in this period increased by just over 5.3 % in the western countries, 5.0 % in the USSR and 2.5 % in the CCEE [19]. This is due in part to increasing yields from intensive farming techniques and in-creased fertilizer use, and partly to slower population growth.

The much greater use of agrochemicals, particularly fertilizers and pesticides, has been one of the most important factors in in-creasing food production in the Region. Ni-trogenous fertilizer use has increased by an average of 68 % over the last 20 years, while the use of phosphate fertilizers has remained fairly constant at an average of 22 kg/ha [19]. The use of fertilizer in the Region rose steadily up to 1970 but began to level off to-wards the end of the 1980s, except in the NIS. Pesticide use has also been critical to the success of raising the yields of European agriculture. Pesticides have been developed and used largely within the last 30–40 years, and the industry has introduced a succession of more sophisticated and effective products [19].

The demands on the agricultural sector are likely to continue to increase, particu-larly in some of the CCEE and NIS. Atti-tudes towards agriculture are changing pro-foundly, as criticism of both its costs and its environmental impact increases. Such criti-cism applies to animal husbandry, as well as the use of agrochemicals and other prac-tices.

According to the Globe I scenario, the land devoted to agriculture will decrease by l % in the CCEE and NIS and by 8 % in the rest of the Region between 1990 and 2010, while pesticide use will remain constant. The number of livestock will rise by 28 % in the Region, and the amount of nitrogenous manure will increase by 2 % in the CCEE

According to the Globe I scenario, the land devoted to agriculture will decrease by l % in the CCEE and NIS and by 8 % in the rest of the Region between 1990 and 2010, while pesticide use will remain constant. The number of livestock will rise by 28 % in the Region, and the amount of nitrogenous manure will increase by 2 % in the CCEE