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Résumé
Permettant de relier différents secteurs de l'énergie grâce à sa polyvalence, l'hydrogène est un catalyseur prometteur pour une décarbonisation multisectorielle. Cette partie de la thèse a pour objectif d’évaluer les perspectives d’évolution des marchés de l’hydrogène en tenant compte des dernières politiques énergétiques dans quatre régions différentes (États-Unis, Europe, Japon et Chine). La faisabilité d’entrée sur les marchés énergétiques dans les secteurs du transport et des usages du gaz naturel est ensuite évaluée pour différentes périodes (allant jusqu’en 2040).
Selon notre analyse, les marchés liés à l'énergie devraient se développer dans les années à venir, ce qui modifiera la répartition de la demande en hydrogène par segment de marché. Cette répartition varie d'une région à une autre en fonction du contexte local (mix énergétique, politiques, feuilles de route, etc.). Les politiques actuelles se traduisent par une faible pénétration de l'hydrogène dans le système énergétique, ce qui ne peut permettre de réaliser que 3,3% de l'effort à fournir (pour les quatre régions considérées) afin de limiter l'augmentation de la température à 2°C, par rapport aux niveaux préindustriels. Cependant, le potentiel de l’hydrogène à décarboner le système énergétique est beaucoup plus élevé, ce qui milite pour des politiques énergétiques plus fortes.
D'un point de vue économique, le marché le plus prometteur dans les quatre régions est l'hydrogène pour la mobilité. Ce marché présente même une marge potentielle de taxation à moyen terme. En revanche, le mélange avec le gaz naturel peine à devenir compétitif. Des efforts industriels et politiques sont nécessaires sur les deux marchés afin de réduire les coûts et de préparer un environnement approprié pour la pénétration du marché.
ACRONYMS
CCS Carbon Capture and Storage ETP Energy Technology Perspectives
EU Europe
EV Electric Vehicles
FC Fuel Cell
FCEB Fuel Cell Electric Bus FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
FCHJU Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GWP Global Warming Potential ICE Internal Combustion Engine IEA International Energy Agency IMO International Maritime Organization LCOH Levelized Cost of Hydrogen
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas
METI Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan)
NG Natural Gas
NP scenario New Policies Scenarios
OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
PEM Polymer Electrolyte Membrane PLDV Passenger Light Duty Vehicles
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SMR Steam Methane Reforming
TCO Total Cost of Ownership
TDCPP Tax on Domestic Consumption of Petroleum Products
US United States
VAT Value-Added Tax
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A MULTIREGIONAL APPROACH
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INTRODUCTION
The comparison of the hydrogen representation in the energy scenarios have shown that most of the scenarios presenting high hydrogen volumes are normative scenarios, considering high renewable shares or stringent climate constraints announcing the role that hydrogen can play within the energy system. Indeed, the hydrogen strength lies in its capacity to contribute to the decarbonisation of the energy system with a multi-sectorial potential [1], [2]. Currently, hydrogen is mainly used as a chemical component in several industrial applications like the refining activity and the ammonia and methanol production [3]. However, new energy-related hydrogen markets are emerging in different sectors (transportation, residential and industrial heating, etc.) [4].
Among other applications, hydrogen can be used to root the renewable energies up to different end-use sectors whose decarbonisation can be challenging (transport, chemical applications in industry, etc.). This can also help provide the electricity system with flexibility.
Hence, hydrogen applications are multiple, but how attractive are they compared to one another? What are their evolution prospects? And under which economic and political conditions can they be developed?
In contrast with the reviewed studies showing more hydrogen in normative scenarios, a different approach is suggested in this section. Based on a designed descriptive scenario, the assessment of the hydrogen potential in the context of the latest announced policies and roadmaps is conducted, aiming at evaluating the consequences of the latter on the hydrogen deployment.
The attractiveness of the different markets is assessed with regards to their size development and carbon mitigation potential; the entry cost being examined for each market.
This approach helps quantify the hydrogen potential while identifying the economic and political bottlenecks behind the hydrogen emergence in the energy system. Contrasted geographic contexts are selected in order to inspect the hydrogen market penetration feasibility facing different energy system challenges.
To do so, a techno-economic analysis is conducted.
This part is hence divided into two chapters. In the first one, the prospective hydrogen volumes and corresponding carbon mitigation potential are assessed for each region adopting the descriptive scenario, and highlighting the political efforts that need to be done in order to allow hydrogen to fully prove its potential.
In the second chapter, a market-oriented study is carried out focusing on the penetration feasibility of the hydrogen systems into the energy markets from a techno-economic standpoint essentially, although political aspects are also discussed. The latter tackle the impact of different political measures (carbon pricing, subsidy, etc.) on the hydrogen economy.
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REFERENCES
[1] International Energy Agency, “Technology Roadmap Hydrogen and Fuel Cells.” 2015. [2] IRENA, “Hydrogen from renewable power.” IRENA, Sep-2018.
[3] SBC Energy Institute, “Leading the Energy Transition Factbook, Hydrogen-based energy conversion - More than storage: system flexibility.” 2014.
[4] SHELL, “SHELL Hydrogen Study, Energy of the Future? Sustainable Mobility through Fuel Cells and H2,” 2017.
HYDROGEN ROLE IN THE ENERGY SYSTEM
A MULTIREGIONAL APPROACH