Regarding the tendency of party entrepreneurship in general, the countries with less new parties are Finland and Belgium, two of the countries less impacted by the economic crisis of 2008, thus demonstrating a definitive correlation between the impact of the crisis in a given country and the number of parties that are created to challenge the established ones. Additionally, both of these countries only have one political party each that can broadly be categorized as
“moderate” in the terms defined at this paper, namely sharing the belief in the core institutions that were maintained by the political status-quo, and merely wishing a change of personnel and a more persuasive stance in favour of certain polities that are well within the accepted “Overton Window”. When referring to the Overton Window, naturally we are entering into subjective waters, but in more concrete terms I would argue that parties well within the mainstream accepted discourse are the ones that would be most likely to enter into coalition governments in support of established political parties, and the ones that are more likely to be accepted for partnership by the traditional political forces and the societal strata that they represent. This does not necessarily mean that these parties that have been dubbed in the paper as “moderate”
will be more likely to enter into government due to their ideological and rhetorical proximity with the mainstream forces, but one would assume that if the electoral calculations impose the formation of coalitions, these subjects will be first in line to enter government and support the established forces. Consequentially, less moderate political subjects will have the tendency to cooperate amongst one-another when the electoral calculations provide this opportunity.
Moreover, looking at the results it is also evident that in some countries other political events have driven the emergence of new parties, besides the World Financial Crisis of 2008. A couple of cases to prove this point would be the “Forum for Democracy” party in the Netherlands, which one could argue has emerged in the ideological framework of Euroscepticism and a
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Anti-Establishment Moderate
24 tendency to reform the political system as a whole. Likewise, the Alternative for Germany, although it did indeed establish itself arguing against the Euro as a common currency and had its origins at the World Financial Crisis, transformed itself into a successful political subject by appealing to non-economic sentiments and presenting itself as an anti-immigrant and populist party (Eddy, 2017). These two political subjects were thus archetypes of northern European parties that have adapted to the new demands of the electoral market due to post-2008 events, such as the perceived refugee crisis of 2015. They represent a global trend and resurgence of a certain ideological predicament and although it is evident that they have capitalized from the opportunities that arose from the financial crisis, tackle issues of a socio-cultural nature and prioritize them in their rhetoric and policy-making agenda. As such, they are movements aiming at cultural backlash on the establishment, rather than an economic re-arrangement of public affairs.
The exemplary cases of political parties that were created in response to major events, other than the World Financial Crisis, are the two challenging political formation established in the UK in 2019. Namely, the Brexit Party and Change UK. These two political parties – as suggested by the name of the former – arose strictly as a response to the Brexit referendum results and the subsequent negotiations that followed with the European Union. Although it could be argued that Brexit itself was provoked to a large extent by events originating at the Financial Crisis, this has to be argued and examined separately. The Brexit Party and the Change UK party represented the two diametrically opposed views regarding Brexit that were crystallized in the aftermath of the crucial referendum. The former argued for a hard Brexit, with “No Deal” with Brussels being not merely an option, but to an extent a welcomed outcome, as opposed to any deal that might force the UK into any sort of concession. On the contrary Change UK, represented the segment of the public which aimed at fully re-integrating Britain into the EU without reservation. These two parties were clearly established to fill a vacuum in the electoral demand, which was left by the two traditional mainstream parties, namely the Conservatives and the Labour Party, which for strategic reasons occupied (at the time) the middle ground, one of supporting the result of the referendum, whilst arguing the benefits of a good deal and close cooperation with the European Union. The origin, reasoning, and political action of these two subjects is apparent to any observer and their relative weight in the political life of the country was proven when the victory of the Brexit Party in the European Elections forced the then Prime Minister Theresa May to resign and brough about the events which culminated in the elections of December 2019. The case of the UK indicates a clear-cut scenario of the traditional mainstream parties not being able to satisfy the political demand on their own, and the natural process of other political figures seizing the opportunity to position themselves in the flanks of these subjects and force them into a certain course of action, lest they lose electoral support to their challengers. This phenomenon takes place even in countries where the electoral code does not welcome or incite challengers. As the results of the second hypothesis will indicate, neither of these parties managed to enter parliament, this completely due to the First Past the Post electoral system, which makes it nearly impossible for political entrepreneurs penetrate into the system. However, when there is a strong electoral demand for a certain course
25 of action, challengers seize the moments regardless of the obstacles. As such, the factor of electoral system, although crucially important when it comes to calculating incentives to joining the system, as well as predicting results, is not the end-all of political entrepreneurship. No matter the obstacles, new parties will emerge, even if they are to perform the role of a pressure group.
In retrospect, it can be asserted that in the European continent there is a general tendency of challengers to enter into the electoral arena, regardless of the incentives and restrictions that the system applies. This in itself can be considered sufficient indication, that there is indeed – at the very least a perceived – electoral demand that is not being supplied by the traditional electoral factions. There are numerous reasons, that could give explanation as to why this might be the case. One of the most discussed issues in the public arena, might be the perception that the over bureaucratization of parties and their ever-decreasing dependence and reliance on members (Schumacher & Giger, 2018) might have created a “bubble” for political elites that does not allow them to respond as quickly as in the past to popular moods. Additionally, as argued by Hopkin and Blyth (2017), the externalizations of many of the duties of governing to private contractors and multinational entities, as well as the world financial system in itself, make governments impotent on enacting economic policies and really dictate rules and directions, since they are highly depended on the international system of regulations as well as threatened by a potential competition advantage that other countries might gain if they do not oblige to the international “rules of the game”. Nonetheless, it is obvious upon these considerations, that the there is a general trend of new political parties, which supersedes national borders and localized contexts and is causing a shift in the existing party system in Europe.
6.2 Success Rate of New Political Parties
To verify the expectations synthesized in the second hypothesis I gathered the national election results data from “Europe Elects” for each of the electoral cycles since 2008 onwards in the EU 14 countries under examination. As explained in the “Research Question and Hypotheses”
section, there are two main milestones that determine the electoral success of a new political party. Of utmost importance for any newly established political party is to enter the parliament and thus have a voice in the decision-making process, as well as a possibility to leverage its relative strength in the legislative calculations to gain traction for its causes and policy proposals. Although on a party level entering into the parliament is quite a success that guarantees access to public funds and a crucially important platform to any new political party, this sort of achievement alone would not indicate what this study is attempting to examine.
Namely, it would not indicate whether there has been a significant shift in the party system as such and is not conclusive in the long-term. Small parties might manage to marginally enter into parliament for one legislature, without being able to impact neither the decision-making
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