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ESTIMATED REPRESENTATIVE ANNUALIZED COSTS

This chapter provides estimated representative annualized unit costs for road infrastructure. The costs were estimated for all 196 road segments classified using the classification system described in Chapter 3.

For each of the 196 road segments the following eight separate annualized costs and one combined (total) cost were estimated:

• Initial construction costs for pavements;

• Maintenance and rehabilitation costs for pavements;

• Initial construction costs for bridges;

• Maintenance and rehabilitation costs for bridges;

• Initial construction costs for all other infrastructure;

• Maintenance costs for all other infrastructure:

• Routine maintenance costs;

• Winter maintenance costs; and

• Total costs.

The chapter also includes the results of sensitivity analysis regarding the discount rate.

Results

Estimated representative annualized costs are reported using a uniform format of Cost Reporting Sheets.

There are 14 Cost Reporting Sheets, one sheet for each geographical region (NL, PE, NS, NB, 1, QC-2, ON-1, ON-QC-2, MB, SK, AB, BC-1, BC-QC-2, TR). Each Cost Reporting Sheet provides unit cost estimates for 14 road categories. An example of the Cost Reporting Sheet is shown in Table 53 which provides results for Southern Ontario (ON-1). All Cost Reporting Sheets are given in Appendix E.

There are separate Cost Reporting Sheets for the two Québec geographical regions, Champlain Plain (QC-1) and Québec Nord (QC-2). However, because of the lack of differentiating information (as discussed on Page 11), the estimated annualized costs given in these two Sheets are presently identical.

All cost estimates provided in the Cost Reporting Sheets have the following properties:

• They are annualized 2003 costs for one-kilometre-long single traffic lane.

• The costs include administrative costs as outlined in Chapter 8 (additional 25 percent for pavements and the all other component, 35 percent for bridges, and 10 percent for routine and winter maintenance).

• The costs were calculated using 6 percent discount rate and annualized over 60-year analysis period.

• The costs reflect current design, rehabilitation and maintenance standards and practices.

• The costs do not include the cost of land.

• The costs include all expenditures associated with earth work (grading, excavating, landscaping, etc.) assuming that the original terrain features have not been changed by any previous road construction.

• The cost for clearing the land (clearing and grubbing) assumed the existence of typical 2003 conditions.

Table 53. Cost Reporting Sheet for Southern Ontario Ontario - South

Pavements - Initial Construction Costs All Other Road Infrastructure - M&R Costs

Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban

All Other Road Infrastructure - Initial Construction Costs Total Road Costs

Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban

All costs reported in the above tables are annualized costs (using 6 percent discount rate and 60-year analysis period) for one one-km-long traffic lane.

Observations

The following observations are based on the results presented in the Cost Reporting Sheets.

Initial construction costs dominate the total costs. For example, in the case of provincial rural arterial roads in Southern Ontario, the initial construction costs represent about 76 percent of the total cost (Figure 6).

Pavements - Initial Construction

Costs 37%

Bridges - Initial Construction

Costs 10%

Maintenance &

Rehabilitation Costs

12%

Routine and Winter Maintenance

Costs 12%

All Other - Initial Construction

Costs 29%

Figure 6. Distribution of the Total Cost for Provincial Rural Arterial Roads in Southern Ontario

Considering the initial construction costs alone, the highest initial construction costs are for all other infrastructure component, then for pavements, and lastly for bridges.

All costs tend to increase with the higher functional class of the road. This is expected because, for example, arterial roads are built to higher standards than collector roads (with wider shoulders, longer sight distances, and better quality materials; arterial roads are also maintained at higher standards because of higher traffic volumes and speeds). However, there are few exceptions. For example, according to data given in Table 49, the pavement maintenance and rehabilitation costs for provincial arterial roads in Southern Ontario are higher than the corresponding costs for freeways. This anomaly is caused by the high-standards for the initial pavement construction of freeways in Southern Ontario. By increasing the initial pavement construction costs (initial pavement construction costs for freeways are about 64 percent higher than the corresponding costs for arterial roads), the subsequent pavement maintenance and rehabilitation costs are lowered.

Municipal roads have typically lower costs than the corresponding provincial roads. The difference is mainly in terms of the initial construction costs for the “all other component.” Municipal roads typically

follow the existing terrain and municipalities tend to be located on terrain suitable for building roads (and other structures).

In general, urban roads have higher costs than the corresponding rural roads. For example, urban roads have more expensive drainage systems, tend to have more bridges per given road length, and have higher routine and winter maintenance costs.

Winter maintenance costs are typically higher than routine maintenance costs.

Winter maintenance costs are generally at par with the pavement maintenance and rehabilitation costs. In some provinces (e.g., Québec), winter maintenance costs significantly exceed the pavement maintenance and rehabilitation costs.

Because the total road costs include initial construction costs, they do not reflect current spending by transportation agencies.

Updating Costs

Unit costs used in this report are for 2003 construction season. In global terms, a cost update can be accomplished by applying construction cost indicators developed by Statistics Canada to the total road cost. A detailed update would require the assessment and update of all unit cost entries, applicable to a given jurisdiction, in all unit cost tables. All input tables, including unit cost tables are given in Appendix D. It is easy to change input data and re-run the cost estimation model for anyone with the basic knowledge of Excel.

Sensitivity Analysis

The majority of input data are in the form of small elements of verifiable and changeable data items. For example, input data are in the form of the thickness of the pavement surface layer (and the unit cost of the layer) for provincial rural arterial roads in Saskatchewan, or in the form of the cost for square metre of a bridge deck on an urban expressway in Southern Québec. If any element of the input data is questionable, the user can easily change the element, re-run the computational model (as outlined in Chapter 9) and assess the impact of the change on the result.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Discount Rate

In order to illustrate the influence of the discount rate on the total costs, and to demonstrate the

capabilities of the computational model, a sensitivity analysis of the impact of changing discount rate was carried out.

As an example, the analysis used the rural provincial arterial highway in Southern Ontario. A series of discount rates used was 4, 6, 8, and 10 percent. The results are presented using as “stacked” bar graph given in Figure 7. The Y-axis in Figure 7 shows 2003 annualized costs for one-km long single traffic lane in thousands of dollars.

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Discount Rate

Annualized Costs (Thousands $ / Lane-km)

Pavements - Initial Construction Costs Bridges - Initial Construction Costs All Other - Initial Construction Costs Maintenance & Rehabilitation Costs Routine and Winter Maintenance Costs

Figure 7. The Effect of the Discount Rate on Annualized Unit Costs of Rural Provincial Arterial Highways in Southern Ontario

The initial construction costs dominate the total annualized costs for all discount rates. The annualized initial construction costs increase linearly with the increase in the discount rate. This trend takes place because the payments for the initial construction are incurred at the beginning of the 60-year analysis period and are annualized (recouped) over the analysis period.

The maintenance and rehabilitation costs shown in Figure 7 are the total maintenance and rehabilitation costs for pavements, bridges, and all other road infrastructure component. Maintenance and rehabilitation costs decrease with the increasing discount rate. This trend takes place because the bulk of maintenance and rehabilitation costs occur in the latter part of the analysis period.

The routine maintenance and the winter maintenance costs are annually occurring costs and are unaffected by the discount rate.

11. COMPARISON OF MODEL COSTS WITH ANNUAL EXPENDITURES