and US$ 990 billion in indirect societal gains, for a full social value of US$ 1.315 trillion. This is equivalent to a direct productivity return of US$ 2.30 for each US$ 1 invested in cancer care and a full social return based on both direct productivity and societal gains of US$ 9.50 (Fig. 2.9). Box 2.8 illustrates the consequences of investing less.
reduce mortality rates. This will lead to a more productive society, with greater workforce participation and a strengthened social fabric.
Fig. 2.9. Productivity gain, societal value and costs of investing in cancer management
Fig 2.8. Return on investment
Direct productivity related return on investment Full social return on investment
$2,3
$9,5
Cost
Productivity Societal Value
$
$80
$40
$120
$ 160
$200
Billion USD
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Section I 52
Box 2.8. What will happen if less is invested?
While the long-term aim is for all countries to have comprehensive packages of care available as modelled, some countries may not be able to achieve this in the short term. A less ambitious scenario was therefore prepared, scaling up the same packages of services to reach 50% of unmet need by 2030. In this scenario, the additional investment required is much lower and, in some settings, possibly more affordable, at only US$
1.70 per person per year by 2030. The trade-off is the number of lives saved, which will be only 400 000 per year by 2030 or a total of 2.2 million over 10 years. This increase is unlikely to allow these countries to achieve the SDG of reducing premature mortality due to NCDs by one third.
These estimates are intended to highlight the possible health benefits in LMIC resulting from investment in cancer control programmes. The 90% coverage scenario gives countries an ambitious option and the 50% coverage scenario is an alternative, lower investment option.
Ultimately, countries should rely on their own data and priorities for deciding where to spend their limited health budgets (see section 7.4.4, Box 7.1).
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