countries has actually been declining over the past decade.
Source: ECA calculations for the 2016-2018 three-year average, using UNCTADStat (2019).
Conversely, however, for some East African countries the share of imports sourced from elsewhere on the continent has actually been declining over the past decade, especially in the cases of Uganda and Tanzania, where it has practically halved since the early 2000s. These trends are partly explicable by the sharp rise in competing imports from developing countries in Asia. The low prevailing levels of intra-African trade within the Horn of Africa and the island states of the Indian Ocean (Comoros, Madagascar and Seychelles) also warrant attention.
16 Uganda has increased its share of exports to Africa, from around 30 percent in early 2000s to more than 50 percent between 2015 and 2017. For a commodity-producing low-income economy, this represents a remarkably high level of intra-regional trade.
SETTING THE SCENE FOR THE AfCFTA
Table 2.2. Share of Merchandise Trade with Africa, 2000-2018
in percent
SHARE OF EXPORTS GOING TO
AFRICA SHARE OF IMPORTS FROM AFRICA
2000-2005
2006-2011
2012-2017 2018
2000-2005
2006-2011
2012-2017 2018
Burundi 11 18 17 18 36 38 36 32
Comoros 4 6 7 8 25 17 20 22
D. R. Congo 9 17 19 31 42 52 42 51
Djibouti 53 49 34 33 11 6 5 6
Eritrea 36 14 2 1 7 13 15 17
Ethiopia 23 17 23 23 6 7 4 4
Kenya 40 43 40 33 13 12 10 12
Madagascar 5 6 8 12 15 13 12 13
Rwanda 23 32 43 28 33 42 35 32
Seychelles 5 10 8 7 13 10 11 12
Somalia 5 9 2 9 20 26 13 7
Tanzania 20 32 32 36 25 17 12 13
Uganda 28 42 54 48 42 26 21 23
AVERAGE 23 28 28 31 20 19 15 16
Source: ECA calculations, using UNCTADStat (2019).
Another important phenomenon has been the changes in the geography of regional trading partners.
Over the past decade, countries in the region have been rapidly diversifying their trade away from traditional markets (particularly Europe) towards new trading partners (e.g. Asian countries such as China and India) (ECA, 2018c). While the share of exports to the new trading partners from the region is still quite low, reliance on them as key sources of imports is of concern. For instance, the unbalanced growth of East African trade with China and India resulted in deficits of around USD 16 billion in 2017, which is almost half of the region’s overall trade deficit (Figure 2.5). 17
17 The evidence on the impact of the developing Asian nations’ rising involvement in East African economies is mixed. Increased imports from China and India may be good for consumers, who are now paying lower prices (for items like consumer durables – televisions, radios, motorcycles, mobile phones, refrigerators, etc.), but such imports from these sources may have an adverse effect on East African industrialization (see Mold, 2017; Jeanneney and Hua, 2015; Giovannetti and Sanfilippo, 2009; Jenkins and Edwards, 2006).
CREATING A UNIFIED REGIONAL MARKET TOWARDS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA IN EAST AFRICA
Figure 2.5: Trade balance between East Africa and key trading partners, 2000-2017
in USD billions
Source: UNCTADStat (2019).
At odds with the pronounced geographic shift in trading partners, the sectoral composition of the region’s exports and imports has changed little over the past decade. Primary commodities still account for a large proportion of the region’s exports to the rest of the world, thus making East Africa highly vulnerable to adverse external shocks. Food items, ores and metals and agricultural raw materials together accounted for 77 percent of the region’s exports to the rest of the world between 2016 and 2018. Taking the example of the EAC, for instance, the export composition of the region’s intra-Africa trade, however, is markedly different, with manufactured goods being the dominant exports, signifying the importance of intra-African trade for the development of regional value chains and industrialization (Figure 2.6).
Source: IMF (2019)
Trade balance between Eastern Africa and key trading partners, USD Billions AfCFTA Report: Figure 2.4
SRP Report: Figure 13 Trade balance in USD billion
(5) (10) (15) (20) (25) (30) (35) (40) (45)
(50) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
EU UAE USA Africa Rest of the World Rest of Developing Economies of Asia India China
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (0.91) (1.23) (1.07) (0.85) (0.54) (2.19) (2.85) (3.33) (4.07) (3.83) (3.72) (3.99) (4.56) (4.76) (5.02) (4.76) (4.54) (4.43) (4.78) (0.64) (0.64) (0.52) (0.65) (0.83) (1.14) (1.70) (2.39) (3.59) (2.47) (2.84) (4.94) (3.52) (3.46) (3.46) (2.81) (2.46) (3.82) (3.33) (0.15) (0.72) (0.34) (0.34) (0.17) (0.92) (0.37) (0.76) (0.79) (1.15) (1.06) (1.28) (1.35) (0.94) (1.17) (0.97) (0.45) (0.16) (0.37) (0.13) (0.16) (0.18) (0.63) (0.28) (1.00) (1.85) (1.60) (1.83) (2.17) (1.26) (1.59) (1.03) (0.19) (0.88) (1.00) (0.48) (0.68) (0.05) (1.77) (2.28) (1.73) (2.78) (2.69) (4.80) (7.55) (7.10) (10.14) (9.05) (9.98) (12.04) (15.76) (15.82) (15.68) (19.80) (12.73) (16.05) (14.67) (0.38) (0.43) (0.46) (0.58) (0.50) (0.79) (1.06) (1.37) (1.71) (2.06) (1.83) (2.46) (2.63) (2.74) (3.32) (3.04) (2.67) (2.90) (3.01) (0.33) (0.40) (0.49) (0.73) (0.61) (1.11) (1.52) (2.40) (3.78) (3.20) (3.63) (5.45) (5.78) (8.37) (7.75) (6.00) (6.09) (5.79) (6.04) (0.28) (0.15) 0.35 (0.43) (0.51) (0.94) (1.55) (2.69) (2.97) (3.88) (3.26) (3.33) (5.25) (4.57) (6.51) (10.31) (10.30) (8.63) (8.16) EU
UAE USA Africa Rest of the World
Rest of Developing Economies of Asia India
China
SETTING THE SCENE FOR THE AfCFTA
Figure 2.5: Composition of Eastern Africa’s trade by main products
Source: UNCTADStat (2019)
Exports to the world Exports to Africa Imports from the world
37 36
Figure 2.6: Composition of Eastern Africa exports by main products, 2016-2018
in percent
By some metrics, East Africa is doing relatively well in intra-regional trade. The EAC, for instance, has achieved one of the highest shares of intra-regional trade of any African REC, surpassed only by the SADC (Table 2.3). According to the African Regional Integration Index – a composite index tracking performance towards deeper regional integration on the continent - the EAC is also currently the best performing REC, achieving a particularly high score in trade integration (ARII, 2018).
Nevertheless, trends in intra-regional trade are not currently going in the right direction in East Africa.
According to national sources, intra-EAC trade, for instance, actually declined from 2014 to 2017: in 2013, intra-EAC exports peaked at USD 3.5 billion, but that amount had fallen to USD 2.4 billion by 2017 – a 31 percent decline, although recently released data registers a recovery in 2018.18 These stagnating or declining trends in regional trade – depicted in the graphs in Figure 2.7 – are clearly of some concern. However, this report argues that by providing a new stimulus to regional integration, by bringing down economic barriers throughout the continent and by contributing to economic growth and industrialization, the full implementation of the AfCFTA could contribute to a revival of dynamism in intra-regional trade. This is a point that will be developed in later sections.
Source: UNCTADStat (2019).