Table 54 Estimated Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 60,061 60,061 60,061 60,061 60,061 2012 59,680 59,294 58,946 59,667 58,550 2013 59,335 58,727 57,903 59,313 57,283 2014 59,054 58,310 56,950 59,027 56,195 2015 58,933 58,089 56,171 58,904 55,324 2016 59,026 58,101 55,629 58,995 54,710 2017 59,337 58,342 55,346 59,305 54,367 2018 59,846 58,790 55,321 59,814 54,293 2019 60,516 59,405 55,531 60,483 54,461 2020 61,299 60,141 55,931 61,265 54,828 2021 62,143 60,946 56,468 62,109 55,337 2022 63,002 61,772 57,086 62,967 55,930 2023 63,838 62,580 57,733 63,802 56,557 2024 64,621 63,338 58,370 64,585 57,175 2025 65,333 64,029 58,970 65,296 57,758 2026 65,966 64,644 59,514 65,929 58,287 2027 66,520 65,181 59,998 66,482 58,757 2028 66,999 65,647 60,421 66,961 59,168 2029 67,414 66,050 60,790 67,375 59,526 2030 67,775 66,401 61,113 67,736 59,840 2031 68,095 66,712 61,400 68,055 60,119 2032 68,383 66,993 61,659 68,344 60,372 2033 68,650 67,253 61,900 68,611 60,607 2034 68,904 67,501 62,129 68,864 60,830 2035 69,149 67,741 62,350 69,109 61,047 2036 69,392 67,978 62,569 69,352 61,261 2037 69,633 68,216 62,787 69,593 61,475 2038 69,877 68,454 63,007 69,837 61,690 2039 70,123 68,695 63,230 70,083 61,908 2040 70,372 68,940 63,455 70,332 62,129 2041 70,625 69,188 63,683 70,585 62,353 Estimated Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 107
Table 55 Estimated Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 24,716 24,716 24,716 24,716 24,716 2012 24,561 24,406 24,258 24,554 24,097 2013 24,418 24,174 23,829 24,406 23,577 2014 24,315 24,016 23,446 24,301 23,140 2015 24,270 23,931 23,128 24,255 22,785 2016 24,306 23,934 22,900 24,291 22,527 2017 24,428 24,027 22,774 24,413 22,377 2018 24,630 24,204 22,753 24,614 22,335 2019 24,896 24,448 22,826 24,881 22,393 2020 25,208 24,741 22,978 25,192 22,532 2021 25,546 25,063 23,187 25,529 22,729 2022 25,890 25,394 23,430 25,873 22,963 2023 26,225 25,718 23,687 26,208 23,212 2024 26,539 26,022 23,941 26,522 23,458 2025 26,825 26,300 24,181 26,808 23,691 2026 27,080 26,548 24,399 27,063 23,904 2027 27,303 26,764 24,593 27,286 24,092 2028 27,497 26,952 24,764 27,479 24,258 2029 27,664 27,115 24,913 27,646 24,403 2030 27,811 27,258 25,043 27,793 24,530 2031 27,941 27,384 25,160 27,922 24,643 2032 28,058 27,498 25,265 28,040 24,746 2033 28,167 27,605 25,364 28,149 24,842 2034 28,271 27,706 25,457 28,253 24,933 2035 28,372 27,805 25,548 28,354 25,022 2036 28,472 27,903 25,638 28,453 25,110 2037 28,571 28,000 25,728 28,553 25,198 2038 28,672 28,099 25,818 28,653 25,287 2039 28,773 28,198 25,910 28,754 25,376 2040 28,876 28,299 26,002 28,857 25,467 2041 28,980 28,402 26,097 28,961 25,560
Scenario
Estimated Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 108
Table 56 Estimated Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 84,777 84,777 84,777 84,777 84,777 2012 84,241 83,700 83,204 84,221 82,648 2013 83,753 82,901 81,732 83,719 80,860 2014 83,369 82,326 80,396 83,328 79,335 2015 83,203 82,020 79,300 83,159 78,108 2016 83,332 82,035 78,529 83,286 77,236 2017 83,766 82,370 78,120 83,718 76,744 2018 84,476 82,993 78,073 84,428 76,628 2019 85,413 83,853 78,357 85,364 76,854 2020 86,507 84,883 78,910 86,458 77,359 2021 87,689 86,009 79,656 87,638 78,066 2022 88,892 87,166 80,516 88,841 78,894 2023 90,062 88,297 81,420 90,010 79,769 2024 91,160 89,360 82,311 91,107 80,634 2025 92,159 90,329 83,150 92,104 81,449 2026 93,047 91,191 83,913 92,992 82,191 2027 93,823 91,945 84,591 93,767 82,849 2028 94,496 92,599 85,185 94,440 83,426 2029 95,078 93,165 85,703 95,022 83,929 2030 95,586 93,658 86,157 95,529 84,370 2031 96,035 94,095 86,560 95,978 84,762 2032 96,441 94,491 86,925 96,384 85,118 2033 96,818 94,858 87,264 96,760 85,449 2034 97,175 95,207 87,586 97,117 85,763 2035 97,521 95,546 87,898 97,463 86,069 2036 97,863 95,881 88,207 97,805 86,371 2037 98,205 96,216 88,515 98,146 86,673 2038 98,548 96,553 88,825 98,490 86,977 2039 98,896 96,894 89,139 98,837 87,284 2040 99,248 97,239 89,457 99,189 87,596 2041 99,605 97,590 89,780 99,546 87,913
Scenario
Estimated Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 109
Table 57 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 - - - -2012 386 734 13 1,130 2013 608 1,432 22 2,052 2014 745 2,105 27 2,859 2015 844 2,762 29 3,609 2016 925 3,397 31 4,316 2017 995 3,991 32 4,970 2018 1,057 4,525 33 5,554 2019 1,111 4,986 33 6,055 2020 1,158 5,368 34 6,471 2021 1,197 5,675 34 6,806 2022 1,230 5,917 35 7,072 2023 1,258 6,105 36 7,281 2024 1,283 6,250 36 7,445 2025 1,304 6,364 37 7,576 2026 1,323 6,452 38 7,679 2027 1,339 6,522 38 7,763 2028 1,352 6,578 38 7,831 2029 1,364 6,624 39 7,887 2030 1,374 6,662 39 7,935 2031 1,383 6,695 39 7,975 2032 1,390 6,724 40 8,011 2033 1,397 6,750 40 8,044 2034 1,403 6,775 40 8,074 2035 1,408 6,799 40 8,103 2036 1,413 6,823 40 8,131 2037 1,418 6,846 40 8,159 2038 1,423 6,870 40 8,187 2039 1,427 6,893 40 8,215 2040 1,432 6,918 40 8,243 2041 1,437 6,942 41 8,272 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 110
Table 58 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 - - - -2012 155 303 7 463 2013 244 589 12 841 2014 299 869 14 1,175 2015 339 1,142 15 1,486 2016 372 1,406 16 1,779 2017 401 1,654 16 2,052 2018 427 1,878 16 2,295 2019 448 2,070 16 2,504 2020 467 2,230 16 2,677 2021 483 2,358 16 2,816 2022 496 2,459 16 2,926 2023 507 2,538 17 3,013 2024 517 2,598 17 3,081 2025 525 2,645 17 3,134 2026 533 2,681 17 3,177 2027 539 2,710 18 3,211 2028 545 2,733 18 3,239 2029 549 2,752 18 3,262 2030 553 2,767 18 3,281 2031 557 2,781 18 3,297 2032 560 2,793 18 3,312 2033 562 2,804 18 3,325 2034 565 2,814 18 3,338 2035 567 2,824 18 3,350 2036 569 2,834 18 3,362 2037 571 2,844 19 3,373 2038 573 2,853 19 3,385 2039 575 2,863 19 3,396 2040 577 2,873 19 3,408 2041 579 2,884 19 3,420 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to
Scenario
Page | 111
Table 59 Estimated Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 - - - -2012 541 1,037 20 1,593 2013 852 2,021 34 2,893 2014 1,043 2,974 41 4,034 2015 1,183 3,904 44 5,095 2016 1,297 4,803 46 6,096 2017 1,396 5,645 47 7,022 2018 1,483 6,403 48 7,848 2019 1,560 7,056 49 8,559 2020 1,625 7,597 50 9,148 2021 1,679 8,033 51 9,622 2022 1,726 8,376 51 9,998 2023 1,765 8,642 52 10,294 2024 1,800 8,848 53 10,526 2025 1,829 9,008 54 10,710 2026 1,855 9,133 55 10,856 2027 1,878 9,232 56 10,974 2028 1,897 9,311 56 11,070 2029 1,914 9,375 57 11,149 2030 1,928 9,429 57 11,216 2031 1,940 9,476 57 11,273 2032 1,950 9,516 58 11,323 2033 1,959 9,554 58 11,369 2034 1,967 9,589 58 11,412 2035 1,975 9,623 58 11,453 2036 1,982 9,656 59 11,492 2037 1,989 9,690 59 11,532 2038 1,995 9,723 59 11,572 2039 2,002 9,757 59 11,611 2040 2,009 9,791 59 11,652 2041 2,016 9,826 59 11,693 Estimated Reduction in Number of People Aged 9 to 19 Years with Conduct Disorder (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 112
Table 60 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in Males Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.03% 0.09% 0.00% 0.12%
2013 0.05% 0.17% 0.00% 0.22%
2014 0.06% 0.23% 0.00% 0.29%
2015 0.07% 0.29% 0.00% 0.36%
2016 0.08% 0.34% 0.00% 0.41%
2017 0.08% 0.38% 0.00% 0.46%
2018 0.09% 0.42% 0.00% 0.50%
2019 0.09% 0.45% 0.00% 0.53%
2020 0.09% 0.47% 0.00% 0.56%
2021 0.09% 0.49% 0.00% 0.57%
2022 0.09% 0.50% 0.00% 0.59%
2023 0.10% 0.50% 0.00% 0.59%
2024 0.10% 0.51% 0.00% 0.60%
2025 0.10% 0.51% 0.00% 0.60%
2026 0.10% 0.51% 0.00% 0.60%
2027 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.60%
2028 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2029 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2030 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2031 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2032 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2033 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2034 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2035 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2036 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2037 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2038 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2039 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2040 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
2041 0.10% 0.52% 0.00% 0.61%
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in Males Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 113
Table 61 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in Females Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.01% 0.04% 0.00% 0.05%
2013 0.02% 0.07% 0.00% 0.09%
2014 0.03% 0.10% 0.00% 0.13%
2015 0.03% 0.13% 0.00% 0.16%
2016 0.03% 0.15% 0.00% 0.18%
2017 0.03% 0.17% 0.00% 0.20%
2018 0.04% 0.18% 0.00% 0.22%
2019 0.04% 0.20% 0.00% 0.23%
2020 0.04% 0.21% 0.00% 0.24%
2021 0.04% 0.21% 0.00% 0.25%
2022 0.04% 0.22% 0.00% 0.26%
2023 0.04% 0.22% 0.00% 0.26%
2024 0.04% 0.22% 0.00% 0.26%
2025 0.04% 0.22% 0.00% 0.26%
2026 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2027 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2028 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2029 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2030 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2031 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2032 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2033 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2034 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2035 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2036 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2037 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2038 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2039 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2040 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
2041 0.04% 0.23% 0.00% 0.26%
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in Females Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 114
Table 62 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in People Aged 9 to 19 Years for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.02% 0.06% 0.00% 0.09%
2013 0.04% 0.12% 0.00% 0.16%
2014 0.04% 0.17% 0.00% 0.21%
2015 0.05% 0.21% 0.00% 0.26%
2016 0.06% 0.25% 0.00% 0.30%
2017 0.06% 0.28% 0.00% 0.33%
2018 0.06% 0.30% 0.00% 0.36%
2019 0.06% 0.32% 0.00% 0.39%
2020 0.07% 0.34% 0.00% 0.40%
2021 0.07% 0.35% 0.00% 0.42%
2022 0.07% 0.36% 0.00% 0.42%
2023 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.43%
2024 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.43%
2025 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2026 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2027 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2028 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2029 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2030 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2031 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2032 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2033 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2034 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2035 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2036 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2037 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2038 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2039 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2040 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
2041 0.07% 0.37% 0.00% 0.44%
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Conduct Disorder in People Aged 9 to 19 Years in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 115
B.1.5 MOOD AND ANXIETY DIS ORDERS
Table 63 Estimated Number of Males with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 1,354,139 1,354,139 1,354,139 1,354,139 1,354,139 2012 1,371,820 1,365,698 1,363,197 1,370,113 1,355,584 2013 1,384,628 1,372,765 1,368,576 1,381,487 1,354,048 2014 1,395,017 1,377,763 1,372,354 1,390,631 1,351,479 2015 1,404,278 1,381,955 1,375,592 1,398,789 1,348,850 2016 1,413,059 1,385,958 1,378,792 1,406,581 1,346,596 2017 1,421,673 1,390,055 1,382,168 1,414,298 1,344,878 2018 1,430,239 1,394,337 1,385,777 1,422,045 1,343,707 2019 1,438,758 1,398,779 1,389,580 1,429,814 1,343,008 2020 1,447,200 1,403,329 1,393,520 1,437,565 1,342,694 2021 1,455,562 1,407,971 1,397,572 1,445,290 1,342,718 2022 1,463,869 1,412,716 1,401,741 1,453,008 1,343,067 2023 1,472,133 1,417,569 1,406,026 1,460,726 1,343,727 2024 1,480,361 1,422,528 1,410,420 1,468,445 1,344,676 2025 1,488,553 1,427,586 1,414,915 1,476,163 1,345,893 2026 1,496,710 1,432,734 1,419,499 1,483,878 1,347,356 2027 1,504,843 1,437,975 1,424,174 1,491,596 1,349,052 2028 1,512,953 1,443,303 1,428,932 1,499,316 1,350,964 2029 1,521,039 1,448,710 1,433,766 1,507,035 1,353,076 2030 1,529,111 1,454,198 1,438,677 1,514,759 1,355,378 2031 1,537,179 1,459,774 1,443,672 1,522,498 1,357,870 2032 1,545,263 1,465,451 1,448,761 1,530,268 1,360,555 2033 1,553,379 1,471,242 1,453,958 1,538,085 1,363,441 2034 1,561,543 1,477,157 1,459,272 1,545,962 1,366,531 2035 1,569,764 1,483,203 1,464,709 1,553,908 1,369,827 2036 1,578,047 1,489,382 1,470,272 1,561,927 1,373,324 2037 1,586,395 1,495,692 1,475,961 1,570,021 1,377,020 2038 1,594,808 1,502,131 1,481,772 1,578,188 1,380,907 2039 1,603,283 1,508,691 1,487,701 1,586,425 1,384,977 2040 1,611,817 1,515,368 1,493,742 1,594,728 1,389,221 2041 1,620,405 1,522,153 1,499,891 1,603,093 1,393,628 Estimated Number of Males with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 116
Table 64 Estimated Number of Females with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 2,664,608 2,664,608 2,664,608 2,664,608 2,664,608 2012 2,690,406 2,682,126 2,677,720 2,688,683 2,667,941 2013 2,714,428 2,698,329 2,690,368 2,711,186 2,671,539 2014 2,737,558 2,714,046 2,703,090 2,732,962 2,675,820 2015 2,760,302 2,729,742 2,716,168 2,754,489 2,680,983 2016 2,782,946 2,745,664 2,729,736 2,776,031 2,687,095 2017 2,805,689 2,761,976 2,743,880 2,797,770 2,694,179 2018 2,828,615 2,778,719 2,758,598 2,819,771 2,702,175 2019 2,851,588 2,795,728 2,773,711 2,841,892 2,710,860 2020 2,874,512 2,812,885 2,789,089 2,864,029 2,720,077 2021 2,897,321 2,830,109 2,804,645 2,886,109 2,729,714 2022 2,919,990 2,847,360 2,820,332 2,908,102 2,739,703 2023 2,942,528 2,864,636 2,836,135 2,930,010 2,750,014 2024 2,964,920 2,881,910 2,852,023 2,951,816 2,760,596 2025 2,987,122 2,899,117 2,867,930 2,973,466 2,771,358 2026 3,009,148 2,916,258 2,883,851 2,994,973 2,782,276 2027 3,031,033 2,933,364 2,899,805 3,016,367 2,793,362 2028 3,052,763 2,950,417 2,915,770 3,037,632 2,804,585 2029 3,074,302 2,967,376 2,931,698 3,058,729 2,815,891 2030 3,095,611 2,984,196 2,947,543 3,079,618 2,827,227 2031 3,116,659 3,000,843 2,963,267 3,100,267 2,838,549 2032 3,137,425 3,017,291 2,978,839 3,120,653 2,849,820 2033 3,157,895 3,033,522 2,994,237 3,140,761 2,861,013 2034 3,178,063 3,049,528 3,009,450 3,160,585 2,872,111 2035 3,197,933 3,065,309 3,024,472 3,180,126 2,883,107 2036 3,217,514 3,080,872 3,039,308 3,199,393 2,894,001 2037 3,236,820 3,096,232 3,053,966 3,218,399 2,904,799 2038 3,255,871 3,111,406 3,068,460 3,237,165 2,915,516 2039 3,274,690 3,126,417 3,082,808 3,255,710 2,926,165 2040 3,293,296 3,141,282 3,097,026 3,274,054 2,936,761 2041 3,311,712 3,156,026 3,111,133 3,292,220 2,947,323 Estimated Number of Females with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month
Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041 Scenario
Page | 117
Table 65 Estimated Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 4,018,747 4,018,747 4,018,747 4,018,747 4,018,747 2012 4,062,225 4,047,824 4,040,917 4,058,796 4,023,525 2013 4,099,056 4,071,094 4,058,944 4,092,674 4,025,587 2014 4,132,575 4,091,809 4,075,444 4,123,593 4,027,299 2015 4,164,580 4,111,697 4,091,760 4,153,279 4,029,834 2016 4,196,005 4,131,623 4,108,528 4,182,613 4,033,692 2017 4,227,362 4,152,031 4,126,048 4,212,068 4,039,057 2018 4,258,854 4,173,057 4,144,375 4,241,816 4,045,882 2019 4,290,346 4,194,507 4,163,291 4,271,706 4,053,868 2020 4,321,712 4,216,214 4,182,609 4,301,594 4,062,771 2021 4,352,884 4,238,079 4,202,217 4,331,400 4,072,432 2022 4,383,859 4,260,076 4,222,072 4,361,110 4,082,771 2023 4,414,661 4,282,205 4,242,160 4,390,736 4,093,741 2024 4,445,281 4,304,439 4,262,443 4,420,260 4,105,272 2025 4,475,675 4,326,703 4,282,844 4,449,629 4,117,251 2026 4,505,858 4,348,992 4,303,350 4,478,851 4,129,632 2027 4,535,876 4,371,339 4,323,980 4,507,963 4,142,414 2028 4,565,716 4,393,720 4,344,702 4,536,948 4,155,549 2029 4,595,342 4,416,086 4,365,464 4,565,764 4,168,967 2030 4,624,722 4,438,394 4,386,220 4,594,377 4,182,606 2031 4,653,839 4,460,618 4,406,938 4,622,765 4,196,419 2032 4,682,688 4,482,742 4,427,599 4,650,921 4,210,375 2033 4,711,274 4,504,764 4,448,195 4,678,846 4,224,454 2034 4,739,606 4,526,685 4,468,722 4,706,547 4,238,642 2035 4,767,697 4,548,512 4,489,182 4,734,034 4,252,934 2036 4,795,561 4,570,254 4,509,581 4,761,320 4,267,325 2037 4,823,215 4,591,924 4,529,926 4,788,420 4,281,820 2038 4,850,679 4,613,537 4,550,232 4,815,353 4,296,423 2039 4,877,973 4,635,108 4,570,509 4,842,135 4,311,142 2040 4,905,113 4,656,650 4,590,769 4,868,783 4,325,982 2041 4,932,117 4,678,179 4,611,024 4,895,313 4,340,951 Estimated Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 118
Table 66 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 - - - -2012 6,121 8,622 1,706 16,235 2013 11,863 16,052 3,141 30,580 2014 17,254 22,663 4,386 43,538 2015 22,323 28,686 5,488 55,428 2016 27,101 34,267 6,478 66,463 2017 31,618 39,505 7,375 76,795 2018 35,902 44,462 8,194 86,532 2019 39,979 49,178 8,945 95,750 2020 43,870 53,680 9,635 104,505 2021 47,592 57,991 10,272 112,845 2022 51,153 62,128 10,861 120,802 2023 54,564 66,107 11,408 128,407 2024 57,832 69,940 11,916 135,685 2025 60,967 73,638 12,389 142,660 2026 63,976 77,211 12,832 149,354 2027 66,868 80,668 13,247 155,790 2028 69,650 84,020 13,637 161,988 2029 72,329 87,273 14,004 167,964 2030 74,913 90,434 14,352 173,733 2031 77,405 93,508 14,682 179,309 2032 79,812 96,502 14,995 184,707 2033 82,137 99,422 15,294 189,938 2034 84,386 102,271 15,581 195,012 2035 86,560 105,054 15,855 199,937 2036 88,665 107,775 16,120 204,722 2037 90,703 110,434 16,374 209,375 2038 92,677 113,036 16,620 213,901 2039 94,592 115,583 16,858 218,306 2040 96,449 118,075 17,089 222,596 2041 98,252 120,515 17,313 226,777
Scenario
Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 119
Table 67 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 - - - -2012 8,280 12,686 1,723 22,465 2013 16,099 24,060 3,242 42,889 2014 23,512 34,468 4,596 61,738 2015 30,560 44,134 5,813 79,319 2016 37,282 53,210 6,915 95,851 2017 43,714 61,809 7,920 111,510 2018 49,895 70,017 8,844 126,440 2019 55,860 77,878 9,696 140,728 2020 61,627 85,423 10,483 154,435 2021 67,213 92,676 11,212 167,607 2022 72,630 99,659 11,888 180,287 2023 77,892 106,393 12,517 192,513 2024 83,010 112,898 13,105 204,324 2025 88,005 119,193 13,656 215,764 2026 92,890 125,297 14,175 226,872 2027 97,669 131,228 14,666 237,671 2028 102,346 136,994 15,132 248,179 2029 106,927 142,604 15,573 258,411 2030 111,415 148,068 15,993 268,383 2031 115,816 153,393 16,392 278,110 2032 120,134 158,587 16,772 287,605 2033 124,373 163,658 17,133 296,882 2034 128,535 168,613 17,478 305,952 2035 132,624 173,461 17,807 314,826 2036 136,642 178,206 18,121 323,513 2037 140,588 182,854 18,420 332,021 2038 144,465 187,411 18,707 340,356 2039 148,273 191,882 18,980 348,526 2040 152,013 196,269 19,241 356,535 2041 155,686 200,578 19,491 364,389
Scenario
Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 120
Table 68 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 - - - -2012 14,401 21,308 3,429 38,700 2013 27,962 40,112 6,382 73,469 2014 40,765 57,131 8,982 105,275 2015 52,883 72,820 11,302 134,746 2016 64,382 87,477 13,392 162,314 2017 75,332 101,315 15,294 188,305 2018 85,797 114,479 17,038 212,972 2019 95,839 127,055 18,640 236,478 2020 105,497 139,103 20,118 258,941 2021 114,804 150,666 21,484 280,452 2022 123,784 161,787 22,749 301,089 2023 132,456 172,500 23,925 320,920 2024 140,842 182,838 25,021 340,009 2025 148,972 192,831 26,045 358,424 2026 156,866 202,508 27,007 376,226 2027 164,537 211,896 27,913 393,461 2028 171,996 221,014 28,768 410,167 2029 179,256 229,877 29,578 426,375 2030 186,328 238,501 30,345 442,116 2031 193,221 246,901 31,074 457,420 2032 199,946 255,089 31,767 472,313 2033 206,510 263,079 32,428 486,820 2034 212,921 270,885 33,059 500,964 2035 219,185 278,515 33,662 514,763 2036 225,307 285,980 34,240 528,235 2037 231,291 293,288 34,795 541,395 2038 237,142 300,448 35,327 554,256 2039 242,865 307,464 35,838 566,831 2040 248,462 314,344 36,330 579,131 2041 253,938 321,093 36,804 591,166
Scenario
Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Mood or Anxiety Disorders (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 121
Table 69 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Males for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.04% 0.05% 0.01% 0.09%
2013 0.07% 0.09% 0.02% 0.18%
2014 0.10% 0.13% 0.03% 0.25%
2015 0.13% 0.16% 0.03% 0.31%
2016 0.15% 0.19% 0.04% 0.37%
2017 0.18% 0.22% 0.04% 0.43%
2018 0.20% 0.25% 0.05% 0.48%
2019 0.22% 0.27% 0.05% 0.52%
2020 0.24% 0.29% 0.05% 0.57%
2021 0.26% 0.31% 0.06% 0.61%
2022 0.27% 0.33% 0.06% 0.64%
2023 0.29% 0.35% 0.06% 0.68%
2024 0.30% 0.37% 0.06% 0.71%
2025 0.32% 0.38% 0.06% 0.74%
2026 0.33% 0.40% 0.07% 0.77%
2027 0.34% 0.41% 0.07% 0.80%
2028 0.35% 0.43% 0.07% 0.83%
2029 0.37% 0.44% 0.07% 0.85%
2030 0.38% 0.45% 0.07% 0.87%
2031 0.39% 0.47% 0.07% 0.89%
2032 0.40% 0.48% 0.07% 0.91%
2033 0.40% 0.49% 0.08% 0.93%
2034 0.41% 0.50% 0.08% 0.95%
2035 0.42% 0.51% 0.08% 0.97%
2036 0.43% 0.52% 0.08% 0.99%
2037 0.44% 0.53% 0.08% 1.00%
2038 0.44% 0.54% 0.08% 1.02%
2039 0.45% 0.55% 0.08% 1.03%
2040 0.45% 0.56% 0.08% 1.05%
2041 0.46% 0.57% 0.08% 1.06%
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Males in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 122
Table 70 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Females for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.05% 0.07% 0.01% 0.13%
2013 0.09% 0.14% 0.02% 0.24%
2014 0.13% 0.19% 0.03% 0.35%
2015 0.17% 0.25% 0.03% 0.44%
2016 0.21% 0.29% 0.04% 0.53%
2017 0.24% 0.34% 0.04% 0.61%
2018 0.27% 0.38% 0.05% 0.68%
2019 0.30% 0.42% 0.05% 0.76%
2020 0.33% 0.45% 0.06% 0.82%
2021 0.35% 0.49% 0.06% 0.88%
2022 0.38% 0.52% 0.06% 0.94%
2023 0.40% 0.55% 0.06% 1.00%
2024 0.43% 0.58% 0.07% 1.05%
2025 0.45% 0.61% 0.07% 1.10%
2026 0.47% 0.64% 0.07% 1.15%
2027 0.49% 0.66% 0.07% 1.20%
2028 0.51% 0.68% 0.08% 1.24%
2029 0.53% 0.71% 0.08% 1.28%
2030 0.55% 0.73% 0.08% 1.32%
2031 0.57% 0.75% 0.08% 1.36%
2032 0.58% 0.77% 0.08% 1.40%
2033 0.60% 0.79% 0.08% 1.43%
2034 0.61% 0.81% 0.08% 1.46%
2035 0.63% 0.83% 0.08% 1.50%
2036 0.64% 0.84% 0.09% 1.53%
2037 0.66% 0.86% 0.09% 1.56%
2038 0.67% 0.88% 0.09% 1.59%
2039 0.69% 0.89% 0.09% 1.62%
2040 0.70% 0.91% 0.09% 1.64%
2041 0.71% 0.92% 0.09% 1.67%
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Females in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 123
Table 71 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in People for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.04% 0.06% 0.01% 0.11%
2013 0.08% 0.11% 0.02% 0.21%
2014 0.12% 0.16% 0.03% 0.30%
2015 0.15% 0.20% 0.03% 0.38%
2016 0.18% 0.24% 0.04% 0.45%
2017 0.21% 0.28% 0.04% 0.52%
2018 0.23% 0.31% 0.05% 0.58%
2019 0.26% 0.34% 0.05% 0.64%
2020 0.28% 0.37% 0.05% 0.70%
2021 0.31% 0.40% 0.06% 0.75%
2022 0.33% 0.43% 0.06% 0.80%
2023 0.35% 0.45% 0.06% 0.84%
2024 0.37% 0.48% 0.06% 0.88%
2025 0.38% 0.50% 0.07% 0.92%
2026 0.40% 0.52% 0.07% 0.96%
2027 0.42% 0.54% 0.07% 1.00%
2028 0.43% 0.56% 0.07% 1.03%
2029 0.45% 0.58% 0.07% 1.07%
2030 0.46% 0.59% 0.08% 1.10%
2031 0.48% 0.61% 0.08% 1.13%
2032 0.49% 0.63% 0.08% 1.16%
2033 0.50% 0.64% 0.08% 1.19%
2034 0.51% 0.66% 0.08% 1.21%
2035 0.53% 0.67% 0.08% 1.24%
2036 0.54% 0.68% 0.08% 1.26%
2037 0.55% 0.70% 0.08% 1.29%
2038 0.56% 0.71% 0.08% 1.31%
2039 0.57% 0.72% 0.08% 1.33%
2040 0.58% 0.73% 0.08% 1.35%
2041 0.59% 0.75% 0.09% 1.37%
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Mood or Anxiety Disorders in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 124
B.1.6 SCHIZOPHRENIA
Table 72 Estimated Number of Males with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Combined Intervention 2011 104,261 104,261 104,261 104,261 2012 105,540 105,326 105,070 104,859 2013 106,881 106,473 105,985 105,587 2014 108,220 107,632 106,930 106,362 2015 109,508 108,752 107,851 107,124 2016 110,730 109,816 108,728 107,853 2017 111,867 110,805 109,541 108,526 2018 112,960 111,755 110,319 109,170 2019 114,058 112,713 111,105 109,827 2020 115,152 113,671 111,894 110,488 2021 116,245 114,632 112,686 111,158 2022 117,353 115,610 113,497 111,849 2023 118,471 116,602 114,321 112,556 2024 119,583 117,588 115,141 113,260 2025 120,678 118,558 115,949 113,954 2026 121,751 119,509 116,740 114,633 2027 122,813 120,449 117,525 115,306 2028 123,871 121,386 118,307 115,979 2029 124,910 122,305 119,074 116,636 2030 125,926 123,200 119,821 117,273 2031 126,921 124,074 120,550 117,894 2032 127,897 124,931 121,265 118,500 2033 128,859 125,776 121,968 119,098 2034 129,810 126,612 122,663 119,690 2035 130,760 127,450 123,360 120,286 2036 131,712 128,290 124,058 120,884 2037 132,661 129,128 124,753 121,479 2038 133,612 129,968 125,451 122,078 2039 134,561 130,807 126,146 122,675 2040 135,503 131,640 126,837 123,269 2041 136,434 132,465 127,520 123,857 Estimated Number of Males with Schizophrenia (12-Month
Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041 Scenario
Page | 125
Table 73 Estimated Number of Females with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Combined Intervention 2011 106,361 106,361 106,361 106,361 2012 107,936 107,650 107,340 107,055 2013 109,504 108,949 108,349 107,802 2014 111,073 110,265 109,388 108,595 2015 112,639 111,590 110,445 109,419 2016 114,193 112,914 111,507 110,258 2017 115,728 114,226 112,565 111,103 2018 117,241 115,524 113,614 111,946 2019 118,730 116,804 114,652 112,786 2020 120,195 118,067 115,679 113,621 2021 121,639 119,313 116,696 114,452 2022 123,064 120,546 117,704 115,280 2023 124,470 121,765 118,705 116,106 2024 125,861 122,973 119,699 116,929 2025 127,235 124,169 120,686 117,751 2026 128,593 125,352 121,665 118,569 2027 129,933 126,523 122,635 119,383 2028 131,255 127,679 123,596 120,191 2029 132,557 128,819 124,544 120,992 2030 133,838 129,942 125,480 121,785 2031 135,098 131,049 126,403 122,569 2032 136,335 132,137 127,311 123,343 2033 137,549 133,207 128,204 124,106 2034 138,739 134,256 129,081 124,857 2035 139,904 135,286 129,942 125,597 2036 141,044 136,295 130,785 126,323 2037 142,160 137,283 131,611 127,038 2038 143,251 138,251 132,421 127,740 2039 144,318 139,200 133,215 128,430 2040 145,363 140,131 133,994 129,109 2041 146,386 141,043 134,759 129,778
Scenario
Estimated Number of Females with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 126
Table 74 Estimated Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Combined Intervention 2011 210,622 210,622 210,622 210,622 2012 213,477 212,975 212,410 211,914 2013 216,385 215,422 214,334 213,389 2014 219,293 217,897 216,318 214,956 2015 222,147 220,342 218,296 216,542 2016 224,923 222,730 220,236 218,112 2017 227,595 225,031 222,106 219,629 2018 230,201 227,279 223,933 221,117 2019 232,787 229,517 225,758 222,613 2020 235,347 231,738 227,573 224,109 2021 237,884 233,945 229,382 225,610 2022 240,416 236,156 231,201 227,129 2023 242,942 238,368 233,026 228,661 2024 245,444 240,561 234,840 230,189 2025 247,913 242,727 236,634 231,704 2026 250,344 244,861 238,405 233,202 2027 252,747 246,972 240,160 234,689 2028 255,126 249,065 241,903 236,170 2029 257,467 251,124 243,618 237,628 2030 259,764 253,142 245,301 239,058 2031 262,019 255,123 246,953 240,462 2032 264,232 257,069 248,576 241,843 2033 266,408 258,983 250,172 243,204 2034 268,548 260,868 251,744 244,547 2035 270,664 262,736 253,301 245,882 2036 272,756 264,585 254,843 247,207 2037 274,821 266,411 256,365 248,517 2038 276,863 268,219 257,872 249,817 2039 278,879 270,007 259,362 251,105 2040 280,865 271,771 260,831 252,378 2041 282,820 273,509 262,279 253,635
Scenario
Estimated Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 127
Table 75 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Combined Intervention 2011 - - -2012 215 470 682 2013 408 896 1,294 2014 588 1,290 1,858 2015 756 1,657 2,384 2016 913 2,001 2,876 2017 1,062 2,327 3,341 2018 1,205 2,642 3,790 2019 1,345 2,952 4,231 2020 1,481 3,258 4,663 2021 1,613 3,558 5,087 2022 1,742 3,856 5,504 2023 1,869 4,151 5,916 2024 1,995 4,442 6,323 2025 2,120 4,729 6,724 2026 2,243 5,011 7,119 2027 2,364 5,289 7,507 2028 2,485 5,564 7,892 2029 2,606 5,836 8,274 2030 2,726 6,105 8,653 2031 2,847 6,370 9,027 2032 2,966 6,632 9,397 2033 3,083 6,891 9,761 2034 3,198 7,147 10,120 2035 3,310 7,401 10,475 2036 3,422 7,654 10,828 2037 3,533 7,908 11,182 2038 3,644 8,161 11,535 2039 3,754 8,414 11,886 2040 3,863 8,666 12,234 2041 3,969 8,914 12,577 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with
Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 128
Table 76 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Combined Intervention 2011 - - -2012 287 596 881 2013 555 1,155 1,702 2014 808 1,685 2,478 2015 1,049 2,194 3,220 2016 1,279 2,686 3,935 2017 1,502 3,163 4,625 2018 1,717 3,627 5,294 2019 1,926 4,077 5,943 2020 2,128 4,516 6,574 2021 2,325 4,943 7,187 2022 2,518 5,359 7,784 2023 2,705 5,765 8,365 2024 2,888 6,162 8,932 2025 3,066 6,549 9,484 2026 3,240 6,928 10,024 2027 3,410 7,298 10,550 2028 3,576 7,660 11,064 2029 3,738 8,013 11,565 2030 3,896 8,358 12,053 2031 4,049 8,695 12,529 2032 4,198 9,024 12,992 2033 4,342 9,345 13,443 2034 4,483 9,658 13,882 2035 4,618 9,963 14,307 2036 4,750 10,259 14,721 2037 4,877 10,548 15,122 2038 4,999 10,829 15,511 2039 5,118 11,103 15,888 2040 5,232 11,368 16,253 2041 5,342 11,627 16,607 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with
Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 129
Table 77 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Combined Intervention 2011 - - -2012 502 1,067 1,563 2013 963 2,051 2,996 2014 1,395 2,974 4,336 2015 1,805 3,851 5,605 2016 2,193 4,687 6,811 2017 2,564 5,490 7,966 2018 2,922 6,268 9,085 2019 3,270 7,030 10,174 2020 3,609 7,774 11,237 2021 3,939 8,502 12,274 2022 4,260 9,215 13,287 2023 4,574 9,916 14,280 2024 4,883 10,604 15,254 2025 5,186 11,278 16,208 2026 5,483 11,939 17,143 2027 5,775 12,587 18,058 2028 6,061 13,223 18,956 2029 6,343 13,849 19,839 2030 6,622 14,463 20,706 2031 6,895 15,065 21,556 2032 7,163 15,656 22,389 2033 7,425 16,236 23,204 2034 7,680 16,804 24,001 2035 7,928 17,363 24,782 2036 8,172 17,914 25,549 2037 8,410 18,456 26,304 2038 8,643 18,991 27,046 2039 8,872 19,517 27,774 2040 9,095 20,034 28,487 2041 9,311 20,541 29,185 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with
Schizophrenia (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 130
Table 78 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Males for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2013 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
2014 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
2015 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
2016 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
2017 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
2018 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
2019 0.01% 0.02% 0.02%
2020 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2021 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2022 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2023 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2024 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2025 0.01% 0.02% 0.04%
2026 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2027 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2028 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2029 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2030 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2031 0.01% 0.03% 0.05%
2032 0.01% 0.03% 0.05%
2033 0.02% 0.03% 0.05%
2034 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%
2035 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%
2036 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%
2037 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%
2038 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2039 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2040 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2041 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
Scenario
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Males in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 131
Table 79 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Females for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.01%
2013 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
2014 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
2015 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
2016 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
2017 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2018 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2019 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2020 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2021 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2022 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2023 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2024 0.01% 0.03% 0.05%
2025 0.02% 0.03% 0.05%
2026 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%
2027 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%
2028 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2029 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2030 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2031 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2032 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2033 0.02% 0.05% 0.06%
2034 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%
2035 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%
2036 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%
2037 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%
2038 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%
2039 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%
2040 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%
2041 0.02% 0.05% 0.08%
Scenario
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Females in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 132
Table 80 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in People for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2013 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
2014 0.00% 0.01% 0.01%
2015 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
2016 0.01% 0.01% 0.02%
2017 0.01% 0.02% 0.02%
2018 0.01% 0.02% 0.02%
2019 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2020 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2021 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%
2022 0.01% 0.02% 0.04%
2023 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2024 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2025 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2026 0.01% 0.03% 0.04%
2027 0.01% 0.03% 0.05%
2028 0.02% 0.03% 0.05%
2029 0.02% 0.03% 0.05%
2030 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%
2031 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%
2032 0.02% 0.04% 0.05%
2033 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2034 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2035 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2036 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2037 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2038 0.02% 0.04% 0.06%
2039 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%
2040 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%
2041 0.02% 0.05% 0.07%
Scenario
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of Schizophrenia in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 133
B.1.7 SUBSTANCE USE DISORDERS
Table 81 Estimated Number of Males with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 1,470,361 1,470,361 1,470,361 1,470,361 1,470,361 2012 1,473,502 1,464,610 1,464,230 1,472,046 1,454,087 2013 1,475,116 1,458,262 1,458,148 1,472,517 1,439,161 2014 1,476,171 1,452,159 1,452,551 1,472,634 1,425,760 2015 1,477,207 1,446,712 1,447,615 1,472,860 1,413,850 2016 1,478,458 1,442,042 1,443,369 1,473,385 1,403,294 2017 1,480,022 1,438,157 1,439,799 1,474,287 1,393,959 2018 1,481,764 1,434,823 1,436,714 1,475,419 1,385,541 2019 1,483,733 1,432,016 1,434,121 1,476,823 1,377,965 2020 1,486,253 1,430,039 1,432,299 1,478,815 1,371,476 2021 1,489,380 1,428,932 1,431,284 1,481,450 1,366,089 2022 1,493,080 1,428,646 1,431,024 1,484,687 1,361,732 2023 1,497,301 1,429,115 1,431,456 1,488,474 1,358,322 2024 1,502,018 1,430,298 1,432,535 1,492,780 1,355,795 2025 1,507,188 1,432,137 1,434,201 1,497,559 1,354,073 2026 1,512,749 1,434,557 1,436,382 1,502,747 1,353,067 2027 1,518,657 1,437,501 1,439,025 1,508,297 1,352,706 2028 1,524,874 1,440,917 1,442,080 1,514,168 1,352,928 2029 1,531,364 1,444,759 1,445,507 1,520,324 1,353,678 2030 1,538,087 1,448,972 1,449,258 1,526,722 1,354,896 2031 1,545,012 1,453,515 1,453,299 1,533,332 1,356,535 2032 1,552,126 1,458,363 1,457,611 1,540,139 1,358,563 2033 1,559,412 1,463,490 1,462,171 1,547,125 1,360,949 2034 1,566,847 1,468,864 1,466,952 1,554,267 1,363,658 2035 1,574,403 1,474,452 1,471,922 1,561,537 1,366,649 2036 1,582,061 1,480,227 1,477,059 1,568,914 1,369,896 2037 1,589,797 1,486,160 1,482,337 1,576,374 1,373,364 2038 1,597,598 1,492,233 1,487,740 1,583,905 1,377,035 2039 1,605,449 1,498,425 1,493,252 1,591,490 1,380,886 2040 1,613,337 1,504,719 1,498,859 1,599,118 1,384,897 2041 1,621,258 1,511,107 1,504,555 1,606,782 1,389,060 Estimated Number of Males with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by
Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 134
Table 82 Estimated Number of Females with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 556,648 556,648 556,648 556,648 556,648 2012 558,160 552,062 552,131 557,412 545,445 2013 558,869 547,772 548,291 557,573 536,295 2014 559,147 543,822 544,931 557,424 528,540 2015 559,278 540,288 542,007 557,204 521,864 2016 559,421 537,202 539,492 557,047 516,078 2017 559,661 534,552 537,367 557,023 511,054 2018 560,051 532,350 535,620 557,177 506,725 2019 560,618 530,568 534,238 557,531 503,016 2020 561,385 529,191 533,207 558,104 499,871 2021 562,344 528,182 532,496 558,885 497,231 2022 563,493 527,521 532,086 559,871 495,051 2023 564,833 527,188 531,959 561,058 493,296 2024 566,361 527,165 532,100 562,443 491,934 2025 568,070 527,435 532,493 564,019 490,935 2026 569,956 527,979 533,122 565,777 490,270 2027 572,011 528,780 533,972 567,710 489,914 2028 574,224 529,817 535,026 569,807 489,841 2029 576,583 531,070 536,267 572,053 490,023 2030 579,074 532,518 537,678 574,434 490,436 2031 581,682 534,140 539,239 576,936 491,056 2032 584,392 535,915 540,934 579,543 491,858 2033 587,191 537,824 542,746 582,239 492,824 2034 590,062 539,850 544,660 585,011 493,931 2035 592,995 541,974 546,660 587,845 495,164 2036 595,975 544,182 548,734 590,730 496,505 2037 598,994 546,461 550,871 593,654 497,942 2038 602,041 548,800 553,061 596,608 499,462 2039 605,109 551,188 555,297 599,586 501,055 2040 608,192 553,616 557,571 602,580 502,713 2041 611,283 556,076 559,876 605,584 504,426 Estimated Number of Females with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 135
Table 83 Estimated Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for the Baseline Model, and Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Base Case
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 2,027,009 2,027,009 2,027,009 2,027,009 2,027,009 2012 2,031,662 2,016,673 2,016,361 2,029,458 1,999,531 2013 2,033,985 2,006,034 2,006,438 2,030,090 1,975,456 2014 2,035,318 1,995,981 1,997,481 2,030,057 1,954,300 2015 2,036,485 1,987,000 1,989,622 2,030,063 1,935,713 2016 2,037,879 1,979,244 1,982,861 2,030,432 1,919,372 2017 2,039,683 1,972,709 1,977,166 2,031,310 1,905,012 2018 2,041,815 1,967,172 1,972,334 2,032,596 1,892,265 2019 2,044,352 1,962,585 1,968,359 2,034,354 1,880,980 2020 2,047,638 1,959,229 1,965,506 2,036,919 1,871,347 2021 2,051,724 1,957,115 1,963,780 2,040,335 1,863,319 2022 2,056,573 1,956,167 1,963,110 2,044,558 1,856,783 2023 2,062,134 1,956,302 1,963,415 2,049,532 1,851,618 2024 2,068,379 1,957,463 1,964,635 2,055,223 1,847,729 2025 2,075,258 1,959,572 1,966,694 2,061,577 1,845,008 2026 2,082,705 1,962,536 1,969,504 2,068,524 1,843,337 2027 2,090,668 1,966,281 1,972,996 2,076,007 1,842,620 2028 2,099,098 1,970,734 1,977,106 2,083,974 1,842,769 2029 2,107,947 1,975,829 1,981,774 2,092,377 1,843,701 2030 2,117,160 1,981,490 1,986,936 2,101,156 1,845,332 2031 2,126,694 1,987,655 1,992,539 2,110,268 1,847,590 2032 2,136,518 1,994,278 1,998,545 2,119,681 1,850,422 2033 2,146,602 2,001,314 2,004,918 2,129,364 1,853,773 2034 2,156,909 2,008,714 2,011,612 2,139,278 1,857,589 2035 2,167,398 2,016,426 2,018,582 2,149,382 1,861,813 2036 2,178,037 2,024,410 2,025,793 2,159,644 1,866,401 2037 2,188,791 2,032,622 2,033,208 2,170,028 1,871,306 2038 2,199,639 2,041,033 2,040,801 2,180,513 1,876,497 2039 2,210,558 2,049,612 2,048,549 2,191,076 1,881,941 2040 2,221,529 2,058,335 2,056,430 2,201,697 1,887,610 2041 2,232,541 2,067,183 2,064,431 2,212,366 1,893,486 Estimated Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by
Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Scenario
Page | 136
Table 84 Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 - - - -2012 8,892 9,272 1,456 19,416 2013 16,853 16,968 2,598 35,955 2014 24,012 23,621 3,537 50,411 2015 30,495 29,592 4,348 63,358 2016 36,416 35,089 5,073 75,164 2017 41,865 40,223 5,735 86,063 2018 46,941 45,050 6,345 96,223 2019 51,717 49,612 6,911 105,769 2020 56,214 53,954 7,438 114,777 2021 60,448 58,097 7,931 123,292 2022 64,434 62,055 8,393 131,348 2023 68,186 65,845 8,827 138,979 2024 71,720 69,484 9,238 146,223 2025 75,051 72,987 9,629 153,115 2026 78,192 76,366 10,002 159,682 2027 81,156 79,633 10,361 165,951 2028 83,957 82,794 10,706 171,946 2029 86,606 85,858 11,041 177,687 2030 89,115 88,829 11,365 183,191 2031 91,497 91,713 11,680 188,478 2032 93,763 94,515 11,987 193,563 2033 95,922 97,241 12,287 198,462 2034 97,983 99,895 12,580 203,189 2035 99,951 102,481 12,866 207,754 2036 101,834 105,002 13,147 212,166 2037 103,637 107,460 13,423 216,433 2038 105,365 109,858 13,693 220,563 2039 107,024 112,196 13,959 224,563 2040 108,618 114,478 14,219 228,439 2041 110,151 116,704 14,476 232,198
Scenario
Estimated Reduction in Number of Males with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 137
Table 85 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 - - - -2012 6,098 6,029 749 12,715 2013 11,097 10,578 1,296 22,574 2014 15,325 14,216 1,723 30,607 2015 18,989 17,271 2,074 37,414 2016 22,220 19,930 2,374 43,343 2017 25,109 22,294 2,638 48,607 2018 27,702 24,431 2,874 53,326 2019 30,050 26,380 3,087 57,602 2020 32,194 28,178 3,281 61,514 2021 34,161 29,847 3,458 65,113 2022 35,972 31,407 3,623 68,442 2023 37,645 32,874 3,775 71,537 2024 39,195 34,260 3,918 74,426 2025 40,635 35,577 4,052 77,135 2026 41,977 36,834 4,179 79,686 2027 43,231 38,039 4,301 82,096 2028 44,407 39,198 4,417 84,383 2029 45,512 40,315 4,530 86,560 2030 46,555 41,396 4,639 88,637 2031 47,542 42,442 4,746 90,626 2032 48,477 43,458 4,850 92,534 2033 49,366 44,444 4,952 94,367 2034 50,213 45,403 5,051 96,131 2035 51,021 46,335 5,149 97,831 2036 51,793 47,241 5,246 99,470 2037 52,532 48,123 5,340 101,052 2038 53,241 48,980 5,433 102,579 2039 53,922 49,812 5,523 104,054 2040 54,576 50,621 5,612 105,480 2041 55,207 51,407 5,699 106,857 Estimated Reduction in Number of Females with SUD (12-Month
Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041 Scenario
Page | 138
Table 86 Estimated Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year
Increase Remission
Reduce Incidence
Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention 2011 - - - -2012 14,990 15,301 2,205 32,131 2013 27,950 27,546 3,895 58,529 2014 39,337 37,837 5,261 81,018 2015 49,484 46,863 6,422 100,772 2016 58,635 55,018 7,447 118,507 2017 66,974 62,518 8,373 134,671 2018 74,643 69,481 9,219 149,550 2019 81,767 75,992 9,998 163,371 2020 88,408 82,132 10,719 176,291 2021 94,609 87,944 11,389 188,405 2022 100,407 93,463 12,015 199,790 2023 105,832 98,719 12,602 210,516 2024 110,916 103,744 13,156 220,650 2025 115,686 108,564 13,681 230,250 2026 120,169 113,201 14,181 239,368 2027 124,387 117,672 14,661 248,048 2028 128,363 121,992 15,123 256,329 2029 132,118 126,173 15,570 264,246 2030 135,670 130,225 16,004 271,829 2031 139,039 134,155 16,426 279,104 2032 142,240 137,973 16,837 286,097 2033 145,288 141,685 17,238 292,829 2034 148,195 145,298 17,631 299,320 2035 150,972 148,816 18,016 305,585 2036 153,627 152,244 18,393 311,636 2037 156,169 155,583 18,763 317,485 2038 158,606 158,837 19,126 323,142 2039 160,946 162,009 19,482 328,617 2040 163,194 165,099 19,832 333,919 2041 165,358 168,110 20,175 339,056
Scenario
Estimated Reduction in Number of People with SUD (12-Month Prevalence) in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041
Page | 139
Table 87 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Males for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.11%
2013 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% 0.21%
2014 0.14% 0.13% 0.00% 0.29%
2015 0.17% 0.17% 0.00% 0.36%
2016 0.20% 0.20% 0.00% 0.42%
2017 0.23% 0.22% 0.00% 0.48%
2018 0.26% 0.25% 0.00% 0.53%
2019 0.28% 0.27% 0.00% 0.58%
2020 0.30% 0.29% 0.00% 0.62%
2021 0.32% 0.31% 0.00% 0.66%
2022 0.34% 0.33% 0.00% 0.70%
2023 0.36% 0.35% 0.00% 0.74%
2024 0.38% 0.37% 0.00% 0.77%
2025 0.39% 0.38% 0.00% 0.80%
2026 0.40% 0.40% 0.00% 0.83%
2027 0.42% 0.41% 0.00% 0.85%
2028 0.43% 0.42% 0.00% 0.88%
2029 0.44% 0.43% 0.06% 0.90%
2030 0.45% 0.45% 0.06% 0.92%
2031 0.46% 0.46% 0.06% 0.94%
2032 0.46% 0.47% 0.06% 0.96%
2033 0.47% 0.48% 0.06% 0.98%
2034 0.48% 0.49% 0.06% 0.99%
2035 0.49% 0.50% 0.06% 1.01%
2036 0.49% 0.51% 0.06% 1.02%
2037 0.50% 0.52% 0.06% 1.04%
2038 0.50% 0.52% 0.07% 1.05%
2039 0.51% 0.53% 0.07% 1.06%
2040 0.51% 0.54% 0.07% 1.08%
2041 0.52% 0.55% 0.07% 1.09%
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Males in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041 Scenario
Page | 140
Table 88 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Females for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.07%
2013 0.06% 0.06% 0.00% 0.13%
2014 0.09% 0.08% 0.00% 0.17%
2015 0.11% 0.10% 0.00% 0.21%
2016 0.12% 0.11% 0.00% 0.24%
2017 0.14% 0.12% 0.00% 0.27%
2018 0.15% 0.13% 0.00% 0.29%
2019 0.16% 0.14% 0.00% 0.31%
2020 0.17% 0.15% 0.00% 0.33%
2021 0.18% 0.16% 0.00% 0.34%
2022 0.19% 0.16% 0.00% 0.36%
2023 0.20% 0.17% 0.00% 0.37%
2024 0.20% 0.18% 0.00% 0.38%
2025 0.21% 0.18% 0.00% 0.39%
2026 0.21% 0.19% 0.00% 0.40%
2027 0.22% 0.19% 0.00% 0.41%
2028 0.22% 0.20% 0.00% 0.42%
2029 0.22% 0.20% 0.00% 0.43%
2030 0.23% 0.20% 0.00% 0.44%
2031 0.23% 0.21% 0.00% 0.44%
2032 0.23% 0.21% 0.00% 0.45%
2033 0.24% 0.21% 0.00% 0.45%
2034 0.24% 0.22% 0.00% 0.46%
2035 0.24% 0.22% 0.00% 0.46%
2036 0.24% 0.22% 0.00% 0.47%
2037 0.25% 0.23% 0.00% 0.47%
2038 0.25% 0.23% 0.00% 0.48%
2039 0.25% 0.23% 0.00% 0.48%
2040 0.25% 0.23% 0.00% 0.49%
2041 0.25% 0.24% 0.00% 0.49%
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Females in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041 Scenario
Page | 141
Table 89 Estimated Reduction in 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in People for Each of the Hypothetical Intervention Scenarios.
Year Increase Remission Reduce Incidence Reduce Relative Risk
Combined Intervention
2011 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2012 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09%
2013 0.08% 0.08% 0.00% 0.17%
2014 0.11% 0.11% 0.00% 0.23%
2015 0.14% 0.13% 0.00% 0.28%
2016 0.16% 0.15% 0.00% 0.33%
2017 0.18% 0.17% 0.00% 0.37%
2018 0.20% 0.19% 0.00% 0.41%
2019 0.22% 0.21% 0.00% 0.44%
2020 0.24% 0.22% 0.00% 0.47%
2021 0.25% 0.23% 0.00% 0.50%
2022 0.26% 0.25% 0.00% 0.53%
2023 0.28% 0.26% 0.00% 0.55%
2024 0.29% 0.27% 0.00% 0.57%
2025 0.30% 0.28% 0.00% 0.59%
2026 0.31% 0.29% 0.00% 0.61%
2027 0.32% 0.30% 0.00% 0.63%
2028 0.32% 0.31% 0.00% 0.65%
2029 0.33% 0.32% 0.00% 0.66%
2030 0.34% 0.32% 0.00% 0.67%
2031 0.34% 0.33% 0.00% 0.69%
2032 0.35% 0.34% 0.00% 0.70%
2033 0.35% 0.35% 0.00% 0.71%
2034 0.36% 0.35% 0.00% 0.72%
2035 0.36% 0.36% 0.00% 0.73%
2036 0.37% 0.36% 0.00% 0.74%
2037 0.37% 0.37% 0.00% 0.75%
2038 0.37% 0.37% 0.00% 0.76%
2039 0.38% 0.38% 0.00% 0.77%
2040 0.38% 0.38% 0.00% 0.78%
2041 0.38% 0.39% 0.00% 0.78%
Reduction in Estimated 12-Month Prevalence of SUD in Canada, by Scenario, 2011 to 2041 Scenario
Page | 142