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Presidential elections and the manipulation of exam success rate in Sub-Saharan Africa

Presidential elections and the manipulation of exam success rate in Sub-Saharan Africa

5 presidential elections in the sample often occur in the last quarter of the year. (iii) The effect of the election dummy on the exam success rate must identify the marginal increase of the exam success rate solely owed to the presidential election, which means that we need to reduce any confounding bias. To achieve this objective, a large set of control variables needs to be included in the model (the strategy is called selection on observables). Bias could remain, however, owing to unobservable characteristics which could be simultaneously correlated with the occurrence of an election and with the exam success rate. This paper thus provides an instrumental variable strategy to identify the impact of the occurrence of a presidential election on the exam success rate. (iv) Finally, the paper examines whether such a strategy consisting in the manipulation of the education outcomes before the elections really has a political payoff. The task is conducted by quantifying the effect of the exam success rate on the probability that the incumbent will be re-elected after controlling for the extent of fraud and political competition during the election.
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Holidays and Turnout at Presidential Elections in France: An Update

Holidays and Turnout at Presidential Elections in France: An Update

We can remark that there is still room to expand our sample. Indeed, up to now, the inclusion of the unemployment variable was the reason why we have to begin our study in 1988. Since we have dropped this variable, we can extend the period under study. Nothing prevents us from basing our estimate on the 1965-2012 period, which would encompass all the presidential elections held during the Fifth Republic 6 . We just need to create some slight hypotheses, since some departments had been modified 7 . The estimates are presented in column 7. The coefficient of HOL remains significant at 1 %.
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Did the Egyptian protests lead to change? Evidence from Egypt's first free Presidential elections

Did the Egyptian protests lead to change? Evidence from Egypt's first free Presidential elections

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) took power in Egypt after Mubarak’s resignation, until elections could be held. Under this transitional phase, a constitutional review committee was formed and on the 19 th of March 2011, a constitutional declaration was approved by referendum. A term limit for future presidents, separation of powers and call for judicial oversight of elections were the main constitutional amendments dictated by the transitional context. In May and June 2012 were held Egypt’s first free Presidential elections in two rounds, where thirteen candidates were qualified to contest the elections. During the second round, Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim brotherhood candidate and Ahmed Shafik, a former Prime minister under Mubarak, were competing for presidency, setting the stage for the division between Islamist and secular lines, as well as opposition versus support for the old regime elite. Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim brotherhood candidate, won Egypt’s first free Presidential elections with 51.7% of votes and became Egypt’s first elected Islamist President. The Egyptian revolutionaries’ grievances were motivated primarily by economic reasons as well as, by political and civil freedoms. However, the question remains as to what extent the protests have brought about political change in Egypt. Although, the 2012 elections have been associated with the 2011 demonstrations, this paper examines the relationship between protests and political change in the context of the Arab Spring protests and particularly, in the context of Egypt. The existing literature on the causal effects of protests is very sparse. To my knowledge, very few studies have examined the relationship between protests, on the one hand and political change, on the other hand and in the context of the Arab Spring protests, there is no empirical work on the effects of protests on political outcomes. Hence, this paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature and to shed light on an important and yet understudied research question.
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Crowding the market: the dynamics of populist and mainstream competition in the 2017 French presidential elections

Crowding the market: the dynamics of populist and mainstream competition in the 2017 French presidential elections

22-23 January 2018 *** PRELIMINARY DRAFT – PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE *** Abstract The 2017 French presidential elections have seen a considerable rise in support for populist actors at the periphery of the party system, challenging the dominance of the more established parties of the mainstream. The electoral success of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s France Insoumise (LFI) has expanded the political space for populist politics to the left of the political spectrum, competing with Marine Le Pen’s Front national (FN) to the right. Meanwhile, the emergence of Emmanuel Macron as a politically viable centrist alternative has dislodged further the traditional bipolar dynamics of competition in French politics, resulting in a significant reshaping of the party system. Based on a national survey of French voters conducted in 2017, this paper examines the dynamics of electoral support for populist candidates in the presidential election, looking at commonalities and differences between the left and right-wing manifestations of the populist phenomenon, and to which extent these differed from the mainstream according to party system location.
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The 2017 French Presidential Elections.

The 2017 French Presidential Elections.

Both Sarkozy and Hollande had faced fragmentation and splits in their legislative majorities towards the end of their presidential term. In 2011, the UMP had seen its more moderate centre-right allies in the Nouveau Centre (NC) and Parti Radical (PR) leave the presidential majority in protest against the ‘hard right’ strategy endorsed by Sarkozy in preparation for the 2012 campaign, and this had resulted in the creation of an independent centrist party, the Union des Démocrates et Indépendants (UDI) in September 2012. A similar unpacking of the presidential majority occurred during Hollande’s term, yet at a much earlier stage of his presidency, whereby Hollande’s leadership had been challenged by a group of rebellious socialist MPs, the frondeurs, who opposed austerity measures pushed forward by Jean-Marc Ayrault’s government. Hollande’s social liberal turn from 2014 onwards had alienated further the left of the socialist party, as well as the Greens and the left Radicals. Both EELV and the PRG had distanced themselves from the PS after Valls’ government had proposed stringent anti- terrorist legislation, including the most controversial proposal to strip terrorists with dual citizenship of their French nationality.
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French Presidential Elections: What are the most Efficient Measures for Tweets?

French Presidential Elections: What are the most Efficient Measures for Tweets?

the analysis of the evolution of French political commu- nities over Twitter during 2012 both in terms of relevant terms, opinions, behaviors. 2012 is particularly important for French political communities dues the two main elec- tions: Presidential and Legislative. Figure 1 presents the timeline with the main events related to this period. As we can notice the official campaign started in April even if the main candidates were known in December. The 6th of May was the final Presidential election where F. Hollande has been elected and the legislative elections were finished one month after.
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More on Seasonal Determinants of Turnout: Holidays and French Presidential Elections

More on Seasonal Determinants of Turnout: Holidays and French Presidential Elections

We can cite three other potential explicative variables, this list being not exhaustive. The first one is the interest of people in the campaign. The more people are aware about the issues of the campaign, the larger the turnout is. Unfortunately such data, mainly taken from polls, does not exist for all the elections of our sample. The second eligible variable is the density of population. When areas are lightly populated, some people are far from the polls and they can choose to abstain. The figures for the population by department are known yearly since the Census of 1990 only what prevents us to use the density variable in our study. We can compute the density for 1995 and 2002 only 15 . The correlations with the turnout are respectively of -0.38 and -0.28 and then go in the sense of the aforementioned depressive effect. Finally, in regard with our holiday variable, we can think that if people go on holidays near their place of residence, they can just go there and back to vote. We can even think that they choose their holiday destination according to the possibilities it offers to be present on the voting day. No data are alas available regarding the choices of people in matter of holiday location.
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A Critical Discourse Analysis of  Hillary Clinton's Presidential Campaign (2016)

A Critical Discourse Analysis of Hillary Clinton's Presidential Campaign (2016)

4 Introduction Since language reflects our intentions, thoughts and ideologies, it offers dominance to certain ideologies, identities and cultures to be prominent within a society. This reflection has recently become the concern of linguists and social scientists. In the last two decades, many researchers in linguistics, language studies and other social sciences have been interested in what is known by Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA). Moreover, they started analyzing lots of written and oral texts and speeches, especially in mass media and political fields. The introductory section of the present chapter is devoted to the theoretical frameworks of Discourse, Discourse Analysis (DA) and CDA. Also, this chapter introduces the meaning of rhetoric and its aspects in political discourses. This chapter closes the door by introducing the features of Presidential elections
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#Élysée2017fr: The 2017 French Presidential Campaign on Twitter

#Élysée2017fr: The 2017 French Presidential Campaign on Twitter

2 Related datasets Several datasets concerning user-level political stance ap- peared in the recent litterature. These datasets cover various topics, but while they are precious tools to analyse political discourse online, a number of them uses automatic methods to determine profiles’ stances, usually Bayesian or graph- based models built on retweets or follow graphs. The ab- sence of manual verification means that these datasets can- not be reliably used to improve and test new stance detec- tion models since the errors cannot be reliably accounted for. Among the topics covered by automatically annotated datasets are the 2009 German federal election (Jungherr 2013; Tumasjan et al. 2010), the 2011 Dutch senate election (Sang and Bos 2012), the 2011 Spanish legislative elections, the 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections, Brexit, Oba- maCare, abortion policies, or fracking policies (Barber´a and Rivero 2015; Garimella et al. 2017).
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The Role of Twitter  in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

The Role of Twitter in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract Presidential politics have always been using innovative ways in the way elections and campaigns are organized. The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election has witnessed the investment of internet by the candidates (Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton). This dissertation explores the contribution of social media networks to the 2016 U.S. presidential campaigns. It focuses on the role of Twitter platform in the effectively-conducted electoral campaigns. The researcher provides an overview about the system of presidential elections in the U.S. constitution and history. The presidential campaigns, particularly Clinton’s and Trump’s, are demonstrated with references to major debates, polls and conflicts. Finally, an exploration of Trump and Clinton’s digitalized platforms is provided. Twitter is found to have significant role of information dissemination and controlling voters’ reactions and enthusiasm. Besides, it seemed to massively contribute to Trump’s popularity.
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#Élysée2017fr: The 2017 French Presidential Campaign on Twitter

#Élysée2017fr: The 2017 French Presidential Campaign on Twitter

2 Related datasets Several datasets concerning user-level political stance ap- peared in the recent litterature. These datasets cover various topics, but while they are precious tools to analyse political discourse online, a number of them uses automatic methods to determine profiles’ stances, usually Bayesian or graph- based models built on retweets or follow graphs. The ab- sence of manual verification means that these datasets can- not be reliably used to improve and test new stance detec- tion models since the errors cannot be reliably accounted for. Among the topics covered by automatically annotated datasets are the 2009 German federal election (Jungherr 2013; Tumasjan et al. 2010), the 2011 Dutch senate election (Sang and Bos 2012), the 2011 Spanish legislative elections, the 2012 and 2016 US presidential elections, Brexit, Oba- maCare, abortion policies, or fracking policies (Barber´a and Rivero 2015; Garimella et al. 2017).
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Elections and de facto Expenditure Decentralization in Canada

Elections and de facto Expenditure Decentralization in Canada

In the spirit of probabilistic voting models, such as those developed by Persson and Tabellini (2000) or more recently by Alesina and Tabellini (2007, 2008), election results are typically un- certain from the point of view of politicians (at least to some extent) since a series of shocks may a¤ect the electorate’s decision beyond …scal policy (e.g. other issues arising during the campaign, characteristics of challengers, partisan loyalty). Here, these shocks are speci…c to a given level of government, introducing heterogeneity in the electoral conditions between the elections taking place at the two levels of government.
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Free and Fair Elections – A New Database

Free and Fair Elections – A New Database

8 which there are none. The latter group appears to be a group of two extremes, some countries appear to hold elections that are perceived to be free and fair and thus are not observed in detail and reported on (e.g. most western democracies). Or they are held by regimes that will not allow observers on the ground or are deemed to be so obviously marred by malpractice that detailed observation and reporting would not improve the conduct of the elections. Kelley (2012) provides an excellent analysis of where international election observers are sent and under which circumstances observation works or fails. Following her analysis we conclude that we have most information on elections which appear to be ‘problematic’ to some extent but are not perceived as such severe cases of malpractice that observers are not present. It is an interesting question why some regimes allow elections to be observed although they know that the election process is marred by uncompetitive rules and fraud. Hyde (2011) examines why pseudo-democracies invite observers.
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Elections and Economic Policy in Developing Countries

Elections and Economic Policy in Developing Countries

6. EXTENSIONS We now extend the analysis to investigate whether there are significant differences in our results according to the characteristics of countries. Doubts over the efficacy of elections in developing countries are particularly centred on the scope for subverting them. Incumbents can resort to several illicit means of retaining power. Our results so far have suggested that accountability works: by requiring governments to attract votes, elections induce them to adopt improved economic policies and governance. Potentially, if governments can retain power by other means they need not adjust policies to those wanted by the electorate but not by politicians themselves. We first investigate whether there is any quantitative evidence that the conduct of elections indeed affects economic policy. For this we rely upon an ordinal indicator of the quality of elections (see Appendix 2 for a precise definition). As might be expected, this indicator is itself of doubtful value. In particular, it does not use the assessment of external monitors who now often rate elections according to whether they are ‘free and fair’. However, it does assess them by the objective indicator of the proportion of seats won by the opposition. Unfortunately, while this is an indicator of whether the election was conducted in a manner than enabled the opposition to gain seats, it is also one that is evidently endogenous to government performance. Other things equal, an opposition will be more likely to win seats if the government has adopted, or looks likely to adopt, very poor economic policies. Hence, the quality indicator will be high not only in situations in which the electorate can indeed discipline the government by voting, but in situations in which the government has particularly failed to deliver what voters want. While we would expect the former effect to produce a positive link between the measured quality of elections and the chance of good policy, the latter effect is liable to produce the opposite association due to reverse causality. This provides an important caveat: our measure, QUALITY, is likely to be biased against clear results.
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Elections présidentielles américaines : comment sortir du dilemme du prisonnier ?

Elections présidentielles américaines : comment sortir du dilemme du prisonnier ?

A l’équi- libre, c’est-à-dire lorsque tous les Etats adoptent la règle “winner-take-all”, chaque Etat, par cette règle, accentue à l’extrême l’opinion de sa majorité dans le but d’aug- m[r]

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Populist Voting in the 2019 European Elections

Populist Voting in the 2019 European Elections

Overall, the predicted surge in support for populism did not fully materialize in the 2019 EP elections. In the wake of the 2008 Great Recession, populist forces had made significant electoral gains – particularly on the left of the spec- trum in the countries hardest hit by the crisis, such as Greece, Spain, Ireland, and France. In 2019, despite a slowdown of economic activity, the economic con- text was somewhat less favourable to populist mobilization, as unemployment and inflation remained relatively low across much of Europe. Meanwhile, the impact of the EU migration crisis that had fuelled support for right-wing nation- alist populists seemed to wane: economic issues dominated the 2019 European election agenda, together with climate change and promoting human rights and democracy, while immigration ranked fifth. 18
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Elections municipales en Tunisie, territorialité du vote et enjeux de décentralisation

Elections municipales en Tunisie, territorialité du vote et enjeux de décentralisation

16/05/2019 Élections municipales en Tunisie, territorialité du vote et enjeux de décentralisation - Les clés du Moyen-Orient https://www.lesclesdumoyenorient.com/Elections-municipales-en-Tunisie-territorialite-du-vote-et-enjeux-de.html 2/4 La décentralisation : l’entrée en politique du local ? Le second enjeu de taille soulevé par les élections municipales est celui de la décentralisation, qui recouvre la réforme d’un modèle centralisé et métropolitain dépossédant les localités. Les enquêtes récentes auprès des acteurs ont en effet révélé une forte demande de mécanismes de concertation locale et de participation citoyenne ainsi que de dispositifs de coordination entre l’État et les collectivités locales. Est exprimé en particulier le souhait de la constitution d’une autorité indépendante au niveau local qui soit « à même de résister aux pressions des intérêts particuliers » au sein de la municipalité, et de pallier à la déconnexion spatiale avec le pouvoir politique en établissant une relation de proximité avec les citoyens (12).
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CALL FOR NOMINATIONS COUNCIL AND NOMINATING COMMITTEE ELECTIONS

CALL FOR NOMINATIONS COUNCIL AND NOMINATING COMMITTEE ELECTIONS

CALL FOR NOMINATIONS COUNCIL AND NOMINATING COMMITTEE ELECTIONS nominated candidates shall appear on the ballot prepared by the Nominating Committee and submitted to the membership. This ballot shall include not less than six candidates for the Council and four candidates for the Nominating Committee to fill the three positions on Council and the two positions on the Nomi- nating Committee. If fewer candidates than required have been nominated by December 31, 2018, the Nominating Committee shall nominate additional candidates. The elections results will be announced at our Annual Meeting at the University of British Columbia on 4 June 2019.
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2019 CHA Elections / Élection 2019 de la SHC

2019 CHA Elections / Élection 2019 de la SHC

Within the discipline, Professor Bryden has served on the execu- tives of the Canadian Historical Association and the Association 2019 CHA Elections | Élection 2019 de la SHC of Canadian Studies, and been President of the Canadian Interna- tional Council, Victoria Branch. She was the program chair for the Canadian Historical Association’s annual meeting at Congress, 2013, has served for a number of years on SSHRC adjudication committees in both history and political science, and is currently a member of the Aid to Scholarly Publication Program board. Professor Bryden’s research focuses on Canadian political his- tory. Her most recent book, Canada: A Political Biography (2016) is a textbook for Oxford University Press. Another recent book, ‘A Justifiable Obsession’: Ontario’s Relations with Ottawa, 1943-1985 (University of Toronto Press, 2013), examined inter- governmental relations, while her current SSHRC-funded research is a history of the Prime Minister’s Office in Canada. She has begun work on a new project on a long history of polit- ical scandal in Canada.
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Confirmation bias and signaling in Downsian elections

Confirmation bias and signaling in Downsian elections

Of all the well known behavioural biases, confirmation bias is surely one of the most con- sequential for political decision-making. As Barack Obama stated in his farewell speech on January 11, 2017, we have a tendency to ‘accept only information, whether true or not, that fits our opinions, instead of basing our opinions on the evidence that’s out there’. Psychol- ogists have identified several specific behaviors that the term ‘confirmation bias’ subsumes (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973; Nickerson, 1998). These include a tendency to overweight evi- dence that confirms our prior beliefs, limit the range of sources we consult to those that are consistent with our priors, and more easily recall evidence that favours our priors. Taber & Lodge (2006) show experimentally that citizens exhibit these behaviours when forming opinions on politically contentious issues such as gun control and affirmative action. In this paper we focus on analyzing how confirmation bias that distorts voters’ interpretation of information might affect the outcome of competitive elections.
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