Comment améliorer la vie des pauvres ? Le dernier ouvrage d’Esther Duflo et Abhijit Banerjee, Poor Economics, A Radical Rethinking of
the Way to Fight GlobalPoverty (2011 ; traduction française en 2012,
Repenser la pauvreté ), se propose d’apporter des réponses concrètes à cette question. Les auteurs posent toutefois un préalable : il est impossible de savoir si une politique est efficace sans avoir conduit une évaluation rigoureuse et précise des politiques de développement. Or justement, Duflo et Banerjee expliquent l’échec de ces politiques par ce qu’ils nomment les « trois I » (2011, 16 ; 2012, 39) : ignorance, inertie, idéologie. « Ignorance » : beaucoup de programmes échoueraient car ils ne sont pas fondés sur une analyse précise des problèmes. « Inertie » : ces programmes sont conçus trop rapidement et se limitent à des programmes déjà mis en œuvre auparavant. « Idéologie » : les programmes s’inscrivent dans une opposition idéologique entre « pro-marché » et « anti-marché ».
valuable knowledge (Bédécarrats, Guérin and Roubaud, 2019 ; de Haan, Dowie and Mariara, 2020 ; Kabeer, 2019 ; Naritomi et al., 2020 ; Ravallion, 2019).
RCTs are politically questionable
RCT-proponents have often presented RCTs as an antidote to the guesswork, fads or ideology which, according to them, usually guide poverty-reduction policy-making (Banerjee and Duflo, 2011). They claim to participate in the evidence-based policy movement and to provide objective guidance to policy-makers. Scholars have challenged this alleged axiological neutrality. They have argued that RCTs are consubstantial tools to the advent of a “neoliberal governmentality” in international development, characterized by a greater emphasis on individual behaviors and the proliferation of market-based responses to social issues (Akbulut, Adaman and Madra, 2015 ; Bardet and Cussó, 2012). Other scholars regard the randomistas’ technocratic ambition to de-politicize and rationalize poverty action as a problem in itself, for poverty should precisely be the object of political debates (Parkhurst, 2017 ; Webber, 2015). Authors warn that RCTs distort the globalpoverty research agenda, by giving more visibility and more importance to the interventions that can be tested through a randomized experiment to the detriment of interventions which cannot – typically, the provision of large infrastructures, or macroeconomic policies (Barrett and Carter, 2010). Not only do RCTs favor some policies and marginalize others, but they also contribute to distribute agency in a specific way. On the one hand, RCTs engage with the poor as naïve subjects of experiments rather than empowered and organized citizens (Webber, 2015). On the other hand, the influence of foreign donors is enhanced (Best, 2017 ; Leão, 2020). Some authors see in the important influence of foreign aid agencies and donors the sign of a concerning continuity with colonial practices (Hoffmann, 2020 ; Reddy, 2012). These criticisms share a common point: RCTs are seen as bearing potentially harmful or questionable political consequences.
United Nations development decade of the 1960s was also a peak international effort to address poverty in the international community. Despite much talk, its efforts also came to naught. 20
Different groups use different numbers to describe the extent of globalpoverty. Trade experts measure poverty in millions of dollars of foregone trade. 21 Theoretically, greater access to Northern markets could stimulate job markets and cause incomes to rise. This is a powerful argument, but hardly the whole story. Many other experts blame the market system itself for globalpoverty. 22 International financial organizations, such as the World Bank in its many reports, measure global destitution in terms of income. Income is the most important empirical benchmark because it measures the depth of global inequality, but it too tells only part of the story. 23 Non-governmental organizations and academic specialists measure poverty against a basket of needs for social well-being, including education, sanitation and employment. 24 This is one of the most innovative measurements of poverty. It has brought much clarity to the poverty debate because by calculating the cost of basic necessities in different regions of the world, researchers have a clearer understanding of the depth of poverty in each locality.
3.3 Does the distinction between “active causation” and “failure to alleviate” play a pivotal role in Pogge’s theory of globalpoverty and human rights?
Third, many of Pogge’s practical illustrations and applications, based on the “institutional view” of human rights set out in Propositions 2 and 3 given in Box 1, seem to de-emphasise the distinction between actively causing severe poverty, and failing to prevent severe poverty, in the establishment of human rights based claims. Gilabert (2005: 542) notes that Pogge’s “positive derived duties” are only compatible with the minimalist normative premises of the libertarian rectification model if the objective of the compensations is strictly to remedy the harm caused for past conduct, rather than ensure that the objects of human rights are fully secure. In other words, human rights based claims under Pogge’s negative model might be expected to arise not from a human rights deficit per se, but rather should strictly relate to the element of non-fulfilment associated with harmful conduct in the form of “active causation”. However, many of Pogge’s applications and illustrations, based on the “institutional understanding” of human rights specified in Box 1, seem to adopt an evidential threshold regarding the establishment of human rights claims that seem to go beyond this position by de-emphasising the distinction between the “active causation” of severe poverty and the “failure to prevent” severe poverty (a distinction which is apparently critical to the formulation of the “minimalist normative assumption” on the basis of which Pogge proceeds). For example, in a recent discussion of the human rights case for reform of intellectual property rights arrangements, Pogge argues that TRIPS agreements violate human rights because there exists an alternative institutional scheme
Introduction. 14.73x is a course for those who are interested in the challenge posed by massive and persistent world poverty, and are hopeful that economists might have something useful to say about this challenge. The questions addressed include: Is extreme poverty a thing of the past? What is economic life like when living under a dollar per day? Are the poor always hungry? How do we make schools work for poor citizens? How do we deal with the disease burden? Is microfinance invaluable or overrated? Without property rights, is life destined to be "nasty, brutish and short"? Should we leave economic development to the market? Does foreign aid help or hinder? And many others. At the end of this course, interested in poverty today, and hopefully a few answers as well.
The 2005 edition of the Davos World Economic Forum surprised many observers. Suddenly, the world corporate and government leaders seemed to discover globalpoverty and appeared willing to place the issue at the top of their collective agenda. Tony Blair, Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schröder, and many others called for clear commitments and new approaches to address a problem that could no longer be neglected. 1 Meanwhile, on the other side of the planet, in Porto Alegre, more than 12,000 people attended the launch of the Global Call to Action against Poverty (GCAP), an unprecedented, worldwide alliance of hundreds of organizations mobilized to fight poverty. 2 Governments of various stripes, international institutions, a broad array of social movements, and even business associations seemed to converge around what an OECD report described recently as an emerging “global anti-poverty consensus” (McDonnell, Solignac Lecomte, and Wegimont, 2003: 11; Kolk and Van Tulder, 2006). Something has happened. On all sides, discourses and debates have shifted, to make poverty a foremost issue (Grusky and Kanbur, 2006: 1). A global poll covering 68 countries and conducted in May and July 2005 by Gallup International found that poverty, or the gap between rich and poor, was considered “the main problem facing the world” by 26% of the world’s citizens, far ahead of issues such as terrorism (12%),
5 THE LOGNORMAL CASE AND THE MOST PLAUSIBLE ELASTICITIES
scarce. Moreover, they rarely mix classical distributions and ad hoc Lorenz curves 19 . Us-
ing 82 distribution data sets at various years for 23 developed and middle-income coun- tries, Bandourian et al. (2002) observed that the Weibull and Dagum were the best-fitting models for the two- and three-parameter distribution family, when opposed to the gamma, lognormal, generalized gamma, beta 1, beta 2 and Singh-Maddala distributions. Our re- sults suggest that Fisk and lognormal distributions are the best two-parameter models and the Singh-Maddala and Gaffney et al. (1980), the best three-parameter models. For ad hoc Lorenz curves comparisons, Cheong (2002) compared the Kakwani and Podder (1976), Kak- wani (1980), Gaffney et al. (1980), Fernandez et al. (1991) and Chotikapanich (1993) func- tional forms on US data from 1977 to 1983 and noticed that Gaffney et al. (1980) and Kak- wani (1980) were the most powerful models. In the present study, we find that Kakwani (1980) is the functional form which generally fits best to our sample of distributions. How- ever, for poverty analysis, we should prefer Maddala and Singh (1977) and Gaffney et al. (1980) forms since definition intervals are larger.
This paper is closely related to four different strands of literature. First, it draws on the papers that analyse the impact of migration and remittances on poverty at origin with household-level data (Yang and Martinez, 2007; Acosta et al., 2006, 2008; Lokshin et al., 2010; de la Fuente, 2010; Jimenez-Soto and Brown, 2012; Adams and Cuecuecha, 2013) and that estimate counterfactual domestic earnings for the migrants (Adams, 1989; Barham and Boucher, 1998). Second, it is related to the papers that analyse the determinants of migrants’ selection (Chiquiar and Hanson, 2005; McKenzie and Rapoport, 2010; Fern´andez- Huertas Moraga, 2011, 2013). Third, it is connected to the vast literature on PSM originating from the seminal contribution by Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983), and in particular to the papers that deal with the use of sampling weights (Fr¨olich, 2007; Zanutto, 2006) and with departures from the identifying assumptions (Becker and Caliendo, 2007; Ichino et al., 2008; Nannicini, 2007). Fourth, this paper contributes to the strand of literature analyzing the determinants and the effects of the recent wave of Ecuadorian migration (Beckerman and Cort´es-Douglas, 2002; Jokisch and Pribilsky, 2002; J´acome, 2004; Gray, 2009; Calero et al., 2009; Bertoli, 2010; Bertoli et al., 2011, 2013).
We recall that a negative relationship between the average rate of growth and the volatility of annual rates has been evidenced across countries (Ramey and Ramey, 1995). So it is likely that financial instability inducing growth volatility impedes economic growth. 6 As economic growth is a necessary condition for sustainable poverty reduction, financial instability hurts the poor through its detrimental impact on growth. Moreover, poor people may be more vulnerable to the cyclical nature of economic growth than the rich, due to the asymmetry between periods of falling and rising aggregate income; falling periods reduce the income of the poor more than the rising ones improve it. For instance, de Janvry and Sadoulet (2000), using data about twelve countries in Latin America from 1970 to 1994, have shown that economic growth has reduced rural and urban poverty on average, but that the negative impact of regressions on poverty has been stronger than the positive impact of expansions. The reasons for this potential asymmetry of change in income on poverty still have to be elucidated. It is probably the result of several factors which may differ from one country to another. On the one hand the less skilled and poorest workers, being made redundant first, have been unemployed for the longest time when the new expansion begins. There exists histereses effect whereby the former unemployed people are the last to be hired. On the other hand, while prices rarely fall during recessions, they most often rise during expansions, all the more so as the expansions are rapid. As the poor may depend more than the rich on state determined income that is not fully indexed to inflation, such as pension, state subsidies or direct transfers (Easterly and Fischer, 2001), growth fluctuations tend to increase income inequality. Although poverty is generally concentrated in rural areas, governments often do not transmit the rise in international prices of agricultural exports to peasants whereas they do transmit the fall in prices to them, as a result of budgetary constraints. From a more general
Our paper analyses the effect of migration upon the incidence of income poverty among stayers in Ecuador, a country that experienced an unprecedented wave of international mi- gration induced by a severe economic crisis at the end of the 1990s. The poverty headcount rose by an estimated 2 million people between the mid- and the late-1990s (Parandekar et al., 2002) in a country with a population of 12.7 million. More than half a million Ecuadori- ans left the country within a few years’ time, mostly heading toward Spain and the US. The sorting of Ecuadorian migrants across destination and their pattern of selection on education were shaped by the combined effect of the crisis-induced liquidity constraints and of the high migration costs that Ecuadorian would-be migrants faced, which were partly policy-induced (Bertoli et al., 2011). Specifically, most of the recent migrants opted for Spain, where they enjoyed substantially lower income gains than in the US but where a bilateral visa waiver that had been granted since 1963 reduced the monetary costs of migration (Bertoli et al., 2013). Survey data collected in Spain reveal that the cost of migrating from Ecuador amounted on average to $1,800 (Bertoli et al., 2011); although this figure stands substantially below the estimated $7,000-$9,000 of attempting to migrate illegally to the US (Jokisch and Pribilsky, 2002), it still hindered both the participation of poor households to this migration wave and its ensuing influence on poverty at origin.
So the mean is weighted average of the mean of each component and the CDF is the weighted average of each component CDF. Various choices have been made in the Bayesian literature. Gunawan et al. (2020) used a mixture of three gamma densities for Australia to evaluate the posterior distribution of a head count index. They study the impact of using or not sampling weights and show that it leads to diﬀerent evaluations of poverty. Ndoye and Lubrano (2014) use a mixture of two Pareto distributions to analyse top wage inequality in the US. Lubrano and Ndoye (2016) opting for a mixture of lognormals derive the posterior density of a Gini inequality index and de- tail the decomposition of the Generalized Entropy index. In this paper, we review the choice of modelling f (x |θ) as a mixture of lognormal densities.
3 Materials and methods 3.1 Data
The data used here comes from a national household survey carried out in 2001 with the support of the World Bank — the Malian Poverty Assessment Survey (DNSI 2004).Households were selected using a two-stage cluster sampling method: the enumeration area (EA) and the household (DNSI 2004). The 1998 census divided the Malian territory into 12,000 EAs containing roughly100 households each. For the survey, 750 EAs well distributed by region and rural/urban areas were randomly selected. Ten households were randomly selected from each EA, leading to an initial sample size of 7,500 households. Our analyses focused on a subsample of 4,952 households for which complete data were available and of which 3,121 were rural and 1,831 urban. The survey was conducted in four rounds between January and December 2001. The data collected concerned socio-economic characteristics, food and non-food expenditure statements, as well as the weights of food cooked and consumed in the households.Each round lasted one week during which the surveyors identified the weekly recurrent expenditure and the exceptional expenditure of the three previous months. Foods used in the preparation of various meals consumed at home were systematically weighed every day.
Anticipating our results, we …rst show how, under income-di¤erentiated mor- tality, standard old-age poverty rates are subject to the Mortality Paradox. We show that, when a …ctitious income lower than the poverty line is assigned to prematurely dead poor individuals only, the adjusted poverty rate is robust to variations in survival conditions, and, thus, avoids the Mortality Paradox. Then, we consider the construction of alternative adjusted poverty measures, which count a premature death as an aspect of deprivation and poverty. Such measures, instead of being invariant to a worsening of survival conditions, are increasing with the strength of positive population checks. That alternative solution to the Mortality Paradox consists of assigning, to all prematurely dead persons, a …ctitious income equal to the welfare-neutral income. Finally, we show, on the basis of Belgian regional data, that, while the addition of the "missing" persons with …ctitious incomes equal to the incomes when being alive only raises the poverty rates by about one point, the assignment of a …ctitious income equal to the welfare-neutral income raises poverty rates by 6-7 points. This suggests that taking the "hidden" burden of premature death into account is a much bigger correction than merely counting the "missing" poor.
T21 Emergence and propagation of military conflicts
T6 Reduction in infant mortality and in average fertility in developing countries
Our program aims at building scenarios of the future of poverty, trying to answer the following question: what are the key drivers (trends) that will have an impact on poverty in the future ? Following the Nopoor’s project 2015 General Assembly meeting (Hanoi, Vietnam, 10-12 June 2015), a list of topics was prioritized and organized by impact, likelihood and pace of progress. The topics discussed can be ranked in two categories: factors that could reduce or alleviate poverty and factors which could inhibit its alleviation (Table 1). The Nopoor experts highlighted some of the hot topics linked to poverty in the region as having a higher impact (against poverty) and a higher probability of occurrence and topics which have high impact, but low probability of occurrence. Out of this analysis, we are seeking to formulate scenarios about the future of the region in the next two-three decades. The following topics have a high impact on poverty and poverty reduction and their trend will continue in Sub-Saharan region in the next years to come.
Razak Oduro, Regina Oforiwa Amanfo
The Ghana Center for Democratic Development
In this policy brief, we present an analysis of a household survey conducted on the utilization of the receipt of Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty (LEAP) cash transfers in Ghana. The focus of the study was to track and ascertain the contribution of the LEAP program in reducing poverty and vulnerability in the lives of beneficiaries.The study revealed that king a difference in the lives of the poor beneficiaries in the short-term by improving school attendance of children, incentivizing children to stay in school, households being covered by health insurance and are able to purchase limited agricultural products.However, the findings suggest that there is little or no guarantee for a sustained poverty alleviation in a much longer term because the LEAP cash amounts were not enough to cater for the needs of all household members. We recommend that LEAP takes a social investment approach in the lives of the poor with aim to facilitate beneficiaries into a sustainable employment and economic opportunities .
Moreover, changing the assistance system in Tunisia implies that some households will lose from such change. In such situation, the considerable leakage of the assistance system would imply that the potential losers in the change would be likely to oppose it. The social troubles in 1984, after the first attempt to eliminate food price subsidies, have encouraged caution in political circles against replacing these subsidies by direct transfers. Our new focused approach provides an opportunity to change the political balance of anti- poverty policies in Tunisia (and in other countries such as Egypt where a similar situation exists, see Ahmed and Bouis, 2002, and Gutner, 2002) in that focused transfers only leave aside a very small proportion of the poor, and are likely to increase market efficiency, thus contributing to stimulate growth. What seems needed in this context is first a special effort of public explanation of the benefits of focused direct transfers against price subsidies, and second a system of compensation, e.g. by creating new jobs from the saved funds, aimed at the few households the most likely to suffer from the suppression of price subsidies.
Information provided by different surveys might be misleading if not properly checked. DIAL (2000, p.134) criticizes the careless way the information on poverty has been processed and used : “The low level, if not absence of thinking about the accuracy of analyses shows a priori the limited interest of the government and experts for the availability of a reliable quantitative diagnosis. The definition and assessment process of anti-poverty strategies seem completely disconnected from previous analysis. The poverty analysis seems widely perceived as an unavoidable exercise to present the situation, without any effort to draw on the results to work out policies. It is difficult to understand the high demand for analyses without any real effort being made in terms of statistical production. If there is a true will to design policies on the ground of a sound knowledge, surveys are needed, with a skilled staff and monitoring for an effective control of the process, its targets, tools of analysis, and the development of a critical mind about the results.”
We estimate the impact of the introduction of the pension information right in France. Since 2004, households receive a letter containing some information about their accumulated pension rights. According to the available information, individuals are able to make an optimal decision. In the context of retirement decision, it is assumed that rational agents are able to anticipate the longevity and sustainability risks of their current pension system. Consequently, the agents optimize their allocation decisions throughout their lifetime. However, we do not always observe this behaviour. This is mainly due to the fact that rational agents are often subject to imperfect information. Many studies have been devoted to the subject of imperfect information, but information in the context inter-temporal allocation decisions between consumption and leisure remains for the most part untreated. From a microeconomic perspective, an information system allows the individual to foresee their future pension amount and to optimize consumption and saving decisions over their life cycle. By informing the insured, political authorities encourage citizens to better anticipate their retirement financing. Pension information is meant to inform individuals on financial and demographic constraints, which strongly affect the current pension schemes. For these reasons, we introduce a dummy variable representing those having received an estimate of their benefits: it concerns cohorts born between 1949 and 1953. As we selected in our sample only retired people, aged of 60 and more, we kept here only cohorts from 1949 and 1950: they represent only 3,53% of our sample. The French law on the pension information being really recent, we do not expect a strong effect on the poverty risk at old ages.
This suggests that it may be appropriate to look at the combined effect of policy on — and at the joint evolution of — poverty and relative inequality even if we are normatively interested only in long-term absolute poverty alleviation.
We may finally be interested in the link between inequality and poverty for purely descriptive or accounting purposes. For instance, how do changing dispar- ities between regions or socio-demographic groups help explain the evolution of poverty? How are changes in inequality within these groups impacting poverty? How can poverty changes be linked to changes in the distribution of factor in- comes — such as changes in the composition of wage earners and self-employed workers, for instance, or changes in factor prices — both between and within socio-economic categories? Concerns are indeed often voiced that widening dis- parities across space (e.g., involving coastal vs inner regions, or urban vs rural areas) or increasing inequality between and within groups (e.g., skilled vs un- skilled workers, formal vs informal workers) may be pushing up poverty, or at least dampening the impact of growth on poverty. Again, the paper provides tools to help examine such issues.