Fig. 4. Deduced CRP as a BPMN-like diagram
6. Discussion and conclusion
This paper has addressed deduction of processes driving crisisresolution from relevant facts observed in the field and business knowledge of actors involved in crisisresolution. Deduction step is a key step in crisis management (and in GéNéPi) as it provides crisis cells with guidelines for crisisresolution. Moreover these guidelines are consistent with both facts observed and crisis actors’ knowledge. The recommended solution includes (i) a meta-model supporting facts and knowledge modelling and (ii) a set of algorithms implementing crisisresolutionprocess deduction. In addition, the paper has reported on an experiment conducted in collaboration with a crisis cell, considering the flood of the Loire in June 2016 as a case study. The experiment took place in the context of the GéNéPi project, funded by the French research national agency. The experiment enabled us to assess difficulties of crisis cell members in modelling knowledge as instance of our meta-model. Fact modelling was really easy while knowledge modelling was more touchy, mainly the modelling of services and relations between them. Regarding services, the issue was their identification. Indeed, the Préfet, head of crisis cell, rather needs a macroscopic vision of the actions executed in the field, while the representatives of the different actors acting in the field need a more microscopic view, in which their actions are detailed. In the experiment, after discussion among the crisis cell members, we have modelled services according to
Abstract. This work aims at providing a crisis cell with process-oriented tools
to manage crisis resolutions. Indeed, the crisis cell members have to define the crisisresolutionprocess, adapt it to face crisis evolutions, and guide its execution. Crisisresolution processes are interaction-intensive processes: they not only coordinate the performance of tasks to be undertaken on the impacted world, but they also support regulatory interactions between possibly geographically distributed crisis cell members. In order to deal with such an interweaving, this paper proposes to use Interaction Protocols to both model formal interactions and ease a cooperative adaptation and guidance of crisisresolution processes. After highlighting the benefits of Interaction Protocols to support this human and collective dimension, the paper presents a protocol meta-model for their specification. It then shows how to suitably integrate specified protocols into crisisresolution processes and how to implement this conceptual framework into a service oriented architecture.
This algorithm differs from the process-mining algorithm Alpha (Aalst, 2004). While Alpha analyses log files to identify direct succession dependences between activities, from which it builds the matrix, we derive them from the meta-model. Second, our construction of the Petri net from the matrix is fairly similar to the Alpha’s one, but we add specific places and transitions to build processes possibly starting with parallelism or alternative. More precisely, as Alpha, we identify initial and final services, which are services to be executed respectively at the beginning and at the end of the crisisresolutionprocess. Then, the novelty is to define two virtual transitions: Start and End. Start is connected to each initial service so that they could be performed after Start. Also, each final service is connected to the End transition, so that the End transition merges the results of the final services. Another important difference with Alpha is that we are able to deduce alternatives involving empty activities. Thus we overcome some limitations of Alpha (e.g., (Wen et al., 2007)).
use conditions of services are defined in the meta- model then these use conditions are the flowing conditions. Otherwise, the algorithm automatically adds an out data to the activity preceding an open exclusive gateway, and defines for each sequence flow flowing from this open exclusive gateway a condition in which this out data is involved. Another interesting aspect in this mapping is the labelling of services with the facts they deal with. Thereby the algorithm labels each service with the facts justifying the selection of the service in the crisisresolutionprocess, making it possible to determine whether or not all activities related to a fact are carried out or not. Thus it is possible to modify crisis situation deleting facts processed from the list of facts to be taken into account. Finally, we simplify the crisisresolutionprocess in removing Start and End services, which were introduced for consistency reasons when building the Petri net, but which are no more useful in the BPMN. We also remove added services in the Petri net for syntactic reasons but useless in the BPMN.
for economic voting theories. Research work relating the economic crisis to elections has tended to focus on the countries hardest hit, such as those of southern Europe (see, for example, the collection of papers edited by Bellucci, Costa Lobo, and Lewis-Beck, 2012). But, the crisis clearly has an impact that crosses other borders. The current special issue aims to tackle these challenges by bringing together research that addresses the question of how the economy affects voting behavior in during economic crisis in diverse contexts. The papers presented in this special issue were originally presented in the workshop ‘What Happened to Incumbency Voting?’, organized at the Center for Citizenship and Democracy of the University of Leuven (22 November 2012).
seconds ; the latter choice raises the question of which interpolation should be envisaged and how much achieved results will depend on interpolation.
It has been demonstrated that, by means of a point process approach, it is possible to characterize the probabilistic generative mechanism of heartbeat events, even considering short recordings under nonstationary conditions. The RR interval series (RRi) is modeled using probability density functions (pdfs) characterizing and predicting the time un- til the next heartbeat event occurs. The unevenly spaced heartbeat intervals are then represented as observations of a state-space point process model defined at each moment in time, thus allowing to estimate instantaneous HR and HRV measures without using any interpolation method. We here illustrate these points on the study of a high quality database (described in Section II-C), comprised of 57 CHF patients, with the aim to accurately assess risk of posterior mortality. Results related to multiscale representations and (supervised) classification performance are presented and commented in Section III. Conclusions are drawn in Section IV, along with discussions and future endeavors.
Getting a crisis situation model from data flows like tweets is a burning topic and a challenge, considering both the invaluable information that could be extracted and the laborious human effort it still requires. While many works rather focus on providing crisis management decision makers with visualizations, based on classification approaches, discovering the concepts and instantiate them into a crisis situation model is still up to them. Automating this instantiation (i.e. extracting unique and informative instances of the crisis situation model) goes through the aggregation of tweets. In parallel, having to mount on-the-fly collaborations to respond to a crisis is a tough task, hence, such virtual organizations would deeply beneficiate from this automated instantiation of a crisis situation model leveraging both the efficiency and the speed of the collaborative response.
A wide variety of standard resistors are available in the process design kit (PDK). Their common point is that they have a low sheet resistance. When high value resistances are needed, highly resistive poly-silicon resistors (HIPO) are available as an option in mixed-signal process but they require one additional mask to be processed which increases the cost of the fabricated chip. In this design, moderate value resistors are needed which does not justify the use of HIPO resistors. Simple poly- silicon (PO) resistors are rather preferred because they are compatible with standard CMOS process . Moreover they have good matching and low dependence to temperature variations. However, it has been shown that the head of such resistor has a strong non-linear I/V characteristic  which introduce harmonic distortion. This non-linear behavior is exacerbated for short resistor length because the portion of the non-linear part becomes more dominant over the linear part of the resistor. The voltage dependency is approximated by the second-order polynomial equation (3-7):
Point-Process High-Resolution Representations of Heartbeat Dynamics for Multiscale Analysis: a CHF Survivor Prediction Study
G. Valenza ∗ , H. Wendt, K. Kiyono, J. Hayano, E. Watanabe, Y. Yamamoto, P. Abry ∗∗ , R. Barbieri ∗∗
Abstract— Multiscale analysis of human heartbeat dynamics has been proved effective in characterizeing cardiovascular control physiology in health and disease. However, estimation of multiscale properties can be affected by the interpolation pro- cedure used to preprocess the unevenly sampled R-R intervals derived from the ECG. To this extent, in this study we propose the estimation of wavelet coefficients and wavelet leaders on the output of inhomogeneous point process models of heartbeat dynamics. The RR interval series is modeled using probability density functions (pdfs) characterizing and predicting the time until the next heartbeat event occurs, as a linear function of the past history. Multiscale analysis is then applied to the pdfs’ instantaneous first order moment. The proposed approach is tested on experimental data gathered from 57 congestive heart failure (CHF) patients by evaluating the recognition accuracy in predicting survivor and non-survivor patients, and by com- paring performances from the informative point-process based interpolation and non-informative spline-based interpolation. Results demonstrate that multiscale analysis of point-process high-resolution representations achieves the highest prediction accuracy of 65.45%, proving our method as a promising tool to assess risk prediction in CHF patients.
establishment of social justice, the formation of strong national army and the creation of healthy democratic life. (R. Louis & R. Owen ( 1989) pp: 20).
The previous officers undertook a power and they joined themselves into Nasser led organization called the revolutionary command council (RCC) that worked as the executive body of the government. The RCC had no preconceived plan for management the country, it tend to respond to situation as they arose and in this way the regime gradually took shape and found its direction. While the organization that headed by Nasser wasn’t completely without plan. And in the process of coalesced its power the RCC reduce twofold campaign. It started by the rival concurrent for power and the second one tried to gain popular support by proclaiming reforms and introducing new constitution. The purpose of the first rival to deal with King Faruq who was obliged to abdicate after three days of coup, the last ruler in the line Mohammed Ali travelled out Alexandria harbor on the royal yacht and he destined idle away the remainder of his life on the French Riviera. In 1953 Egypt declared a republic and monarchy abolished, according to the Wafd and other parties the RCC announced a series of sweeping political change that effectively avoided the old order he constitution of 1923 abolished, parliament was dissolved and all political parties wereprevented. The regime went on to declare a three year transitional period during the RCC would act as the supreme executive. Nagib assumed the offices of president and prime minister, but secretly Nasser remained minister of the interior, and other civilian politicians members subrogated by the RCC members and the additional officer were appointed to oversee the bureaucracy, the military was assuming a complete control of the state. In 1954 another RCC decree prohibited anyone who held public office from 1946 to 1952 from doing so again. This effectively prevented the old order politicians from participation in public life and opened the way for new generation from different stratum of society to assume position of authority within the bureaucracy. The RCC organize a party which called liberation Rally, it gained control and support of such interest groups as student and workers, in this time the liberation Rally was the only party permitted in the country but unfortunately failed to generate much enthusiasm. (Cleveland.(2000): pp 295).
Following the appearance of the recent scandals, the question of the efficiency of the corporate governance mechanisms to appease the financial crisis can be raised. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the board of directors effectiveness on the firm’s ability to resist the Asian stock market crisis. The firm ability to resist the Asian stock market crisis is assessed by minimization of financial return’s conditional volatility estimated by ARCH and GARCH models. Using a data from 94 listed and industrial firms in four East Asian countries: Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines between 1996 and 1998, we find that the board size and the presence of the outside directors are negatively linked to the financial return’s conditional volatility. This result seems to be compatible with the argument which supposes that the efficient boards can increase the ability to control the managers and the capability of firms to resist the crisis. The leadership structure would be without effect on the resistance to the crisis and the CEO turnover would have a positive effect on the financial return’s conditional volatility.
no better abroad. Output in the G7 and in OECD countries both fell 4.6% over the same period: the UK, Germany, Japan and Italy all suffered declines ranging from 5.5 to 6.5%. 21
All of the above seem like good reasons to try to avoid financial crises. However, there are also common arguments against avoiding financial crises that should be noted. Many important ones are based on the idea of risk tolerance. Businesses and managers tend to adapt to their behavior to the amount of risk that they see. Efforts to stabilize financial markets or the economy will therefore be partly offset by businesses taking on more risk. While this is rational for the individual business, the net effect can be to makes crisis prevention harder than it would otherwise be. 22
 D. Chen, « Practices, principles and patterns for interoperability », INTEROP Deliverable D6.1, 2005, available on line at: http://www.interop-vlab.eu/
 P. Couget, F. Bénaben, M. Lauras, C. Hanachi, V. Chapurlat, “Information Systems interoperability as a way to Partners Integration in a Crisis Context”, 20th International Conference on Software & Systems Engineering and their Applications, ICSSEA’07, Paris, France, 4-6 december 2007.  D. Lowe, S. Ng, “Effects-based operations: language, meaning and the effects-based approach”, 2004 Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, “The power of information age and technologies”, San Diego, 15- 17 june 2004.
Figure 1. Tree height in function of tree crown diameter in a young plantation of Eucalyptus grandis in Brazil. Measurements were done at age 6 month (blue) and at age 9 month (green)
Allometric relationships between tree height and tree leaf area are also precise for such plantations (r 2 >0.9). Such allometric relationship can be used to give an estimation of leaf area of each tree, since tree eight is estimated on the image (from tree diameter). However, since the uncertainty on crown diameter is high, we explored the use of the radiometry of the multi-spectral images. For that purpose, the crown positions and delineation obtained before were used, and average values of NDVI were calculated for each tree. A simple vegetation index was calibrated with leaf area field measurements of several trees. Due to the size of some of the trees, this step was enhanced by the linear unmixing approach that was described in . The results showed that it was possible to estimate the leaf area of each tree with an accuracy of 30 % and no bias. Use of high resolution forest reflectance model [9, 10]. Other necessary information for MAESTRA parameterization was not derived from satellite measurements. These parameters could be considered to be constant between trees, and therefore were estimated during the field campaign. The procedure that was developed for Eucalyptus plantations was tested on the more complex agroforestry system. For detection of shade tree positions and size, the VHSR images appeared to be useful, but automatic detection of shade trees were more difficult because of background heterogeneity, giving an accuracy of 70%. The lack of precise measurements of tree leaf area brings additional error for the shade tree parameterization . However, the use of VHSR images were encouraging for mapping leaf area of the coffee strata .
The empirical application provided here is rather simple, aimed at illustrating the fact that crisis-robust portfolios can include a substantial fraction of risky assets when FTQ is observed instead of contagion. In this respect, the bond market offers a natural arena for examples. Other cases of FTQ have also been identified, in particular in the bond-stock correlation (Hartmann et al. (2001), Baur and Lucey (2006)). Therefore, a natural extension of this work would be to test crisis robustness in the case of larger portfolios that also include stocks. Indeed, contagion and its unpleasant consequences for portfolio management have been now extensively described. But surprisingly, little attention has been paid to the benefits that can be obtained by overweighting assets whose correlations decrease during crises. Actually, acknowledging the FTQ effect helps reduce the perceived “drama” surrounding financial crises. More empirics are obviously needed to gauge the size of FTQ on global financial markets.
Crédit Suisse: Within the context of the subprime crisis, the stock market value of most financial institutions depends extensively upon investors’ assessment of their direct and indirect exposure to subprime-related loans or derivatives. The valuation information disclosed by financial institutions that evolve in the same markets largely influences such an assessment, with more recent market quotes driving such valuation. In that regard, the saga surrounding Crédit Suisse’s release of its 2007 earnings is quite enlightening. On February 12, 2008, Crédit Suisse reports record income from continuous operations of 8.5 billion Swiss Francs. On February 19, 2008, Crédit Suisse announces that some additional control processes have led to the repricing of certain asset-backed positions in its Structured Credit Trading business, with the current total fair value reduction of these positions being reduced by an estimated $U.S. 2.85 billion. Finally, on March 20, 2008, Crédit Suisse reports that its 2007 operating income has been revised downward by 1.18 billion Swiss Francs (789 million Swiss Francs after tax), close to a 10% difference with the initially reported figure. The Crédit Suisse story illustrates the difficulty of pinning down the fair value of many assets when the underlying valuation methodology is complex and subject to shifting hypotheses and assumptions about the future. Crédit Suisse`s experience also shows that reported results for a given period may be subject to a wide margin of error, or discretion, or even restated.
Al-Kitab Journal for Human Sciences 1(2)20 Madhat &H.Almufti
29).Accordingly, he agrees with Kristeva's notion of the intertextual text. Nevertheless, he introduces an extreme idea concerning the text writer as he continues "rather than from the author's conscious creative mind"(Barthes, 1981: 29). In view of that, any text is not a novel creation of the writer's invention. It is, instead, a new form of imitation that is abstracted from other texts. Barthes describes texts to be reconstructive "any text is an intertext" (Barthes, 1981: 28).To him, this quality is the feature by which a text becomes multi-layered and moves from the notion of the author's single intentional meaning. He goes a further step to put emphasis on the author's role in the process of demonstrating the text "there is one place where this multiplicity is focused, and that place is the reader, not, as hitherto said the author. The reader is the space on which all the quotations that make up the writing are inscribed without any of them being lost; a text’s unity lies not in its origin but in its destination… the birth of the reader must be at the cost of the death of the author" (Barthes, 1977: 142-148).The writer's role in this case is not but a means to use those absorbed texts in order to direct them in a way that serves a certain notion. Barthes highly proposes that a text is a combination of various "dejalu" (Barthes, 1973: 16) texts that a writer reorganizes and controls to serve the current text meaning. The opposed role in this situation is the reader's role which remains unknown in order to allow the recreation process of meaning within all the inherited intertextual links and waving novel intertextual ones. According to Barthes in the wide diverse range of intertextuality, this birth of the reader foretells the death of the author. Although Bathes' theory of "the death of the author" is exceedingly a considerable one, in particular its positive modern view towards the reader's role, however, we state it in a more of a philosophical position and we oppose to its representation of the author's role to be such limited, conventional, and dim. In the following pages we propose Milton's manner of writing "Lycidas" as contrastive evidence to the claims of that limitation. We also tackle the possibilities and prospects that such a role predicts to confirm or refute either Kristeva's notion of "production" or Barthes theory of "the death of the author". Those two concepts are viewed here as having opposed positions, since production is synonymous of creation which is antonymous of death.
Turkey has one of the most risky countries among the developing countries against the crisis (Yetim, 2008:5-6). Because real interest rates, are still very high in Turkish economy. The reason for these high rates is the need for foreign investment. But this is not the only reason. In developing countries governments continue to increase real interest rates or still have the high interest rates so as to avoid high inflation rates. However since November 2008 inflation rates have started to reduce in the world economy and in developing countries the governments have started to reduce interest rates, though in small percent. In the below figure the developments in real interest rates can be seen (See Figure 1) (TCMB, 2008: 8).