Figure 2A
applicability bias MSE λ P CI success λ H CI success
g 0 = 10 2
g 0 = 10 4
g 0 = 10 6
N e = 1 00
g 0 = 10 2
g 0 = 10 4
g 0 = 10 6 g 0 = 10 2
g 0 = 10 4
g 0 = 10 6
N e = 1 00 0 N e = 1 0
p p
p p
c c
c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p c c
c c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
p p c
c c
c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x
x
p p c
c c
c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
p p
c c c
c
g g
g
g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
1 10 100 1000
p p
p p
c c
c c
g g g g
l l
l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p c c c
c
g g g
g
l l
l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p c
c c
c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m m
m
x x
x x
p p
c c
c c
g g
g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x
x x
p p
c c
c c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m
m m
x x
x x
1 10 100 1000
p p
p p
c c
c c
g g g g
l l
l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p c c c
c
g g g
g
l l
l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p c
c c
c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m m
m
x x
x x
p p c
c c
c
g g
g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x
x x
p p
c c
c c
g g
g
g
l l l
l
m m
m m
x x
x x
1 10 100 1000
p p
p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
100 80 60 40 20 0
p p
c c
c c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
-0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5
p p
c c
c c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x
x
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
p p c
c c
c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
p p c
c c
c
g g
g
g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
1 10 100 1000
p p
p
p
c c
c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p p
c c c
c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m m m
x x x
x
p p
p
c c
c c
g g
g g
l l
l
l
m m m
m
x x x
x
p p p
c c c
c
g g
g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x
x
x
p p p
c c c c
g g g
g
l l l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
1 10 100 1000
p p
p
p
c c c
c
g g g g
l l l
l
m m m m
x x x x
p p p
c c c c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m m m
x x x
x
p p
p
c c c
c
g g g
g
l l
l l
m m m
m
x x x
x
p p p
c c c
c
g g
g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x
x
x
p p p
c c c c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m
m m
x x
x x
1 10 100 1000
p p
p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
100 80 60 40 20 0
p p
c c
c c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
-0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5
p p
c c
c c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
p p c
c c
c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
p p c
c c
c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
1 10 100 1000
p p p
p
c c c
c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p p
p
c c c
c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x x x
p p p
p
c c c
c
g g g
g
l l
l l
m m m
m
x x x
x
p p p p
c c c
c
g g
g
g
l l
l l
m m m
m
x x
x x
p p p p
c c c c
g g
g
g
l l
l l
m m m
m
x x
x x
1 10 100 1000
p p p
p
c c c
c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p p p
c c c c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m m m
x x x x
p p p
p
c c c
c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x x
x
p p
p p
c c c c
g g
g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x
x x
p p p
p
c c
c c
g g
g g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x
x x
1 10 100 1000
Figure 2B
applicability bias MSE λ P CI success λ H CI success
g 0 = 10 2
g 0 = 10 4
g 0 = 10 6
N e = 1 00
g 0 = 10 2
g 0 = 10 4
g 0 = 10 6 g 0 = 10 2
g 0 = 10 4
g 0 = 10 6
N e = 1 00 0 N e = 1 0
p p
p p
c c
c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p c
c c c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
p p c c c c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m m
m
x x
x x
p p c
c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x
x x
1 10 100 1000
p p
p p
c c c
c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p c
c c c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
p p c c c c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x
x x
p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m
m
x x
x x
1 10 100 1000
p p
p p
c c c
c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p c
c c c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
p p c c c c
g g g
g
l l l l
m m m
m
x x
x x
p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m
m
x x
x x
1 10 100 1000
p p
p
p
c c
c c
g g
g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
100 80 60 40 20 0
p p
p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
-0. 5 -0. 3 -0. 1 0. 0 0. 1 0. 3 0. 5
p p
p
c c
c c
g g
g g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
0. 0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5
p p
p
c c c c
g g g
g
l l l l
m m m m
x x
x x
1. 0 0. 8 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 0. 0
p p
p
c c c c
g g g
g
l l l l
m m m m
x x
x x
1. 0 0. 8 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 0. 0
1 10 100 1000
p p
p
p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p
p
c c
c c
g g g
g
l l
l l
m m m
m
x x
x
x
p p p
c c c c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x x
x
p p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m
m
x x
x
x
1 10 100 1000
p p
p
p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p
p
c c
c c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x
x
x
p p p
c c c c
g g g
g
l l l l
m m m
m
x x x
x
p p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x
x
x
1 10 100 1000
p p
p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
100 80 60 40 20 0
p p c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
-0. 5 -0. 3 -0. 1 0. 0 0. 1 0. 3 0. 5
p p
c c c c
g g g
g
l l
l l
m m
m m
x x
x x
0. 0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 0. 5
p p c c
c c
g g g
g
l l l l
m m m
m
x x
x x
1. 0 0. 8 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 0. 0
p p c c
c c
g g g
g
l l l l
m m m
m
x x
x x
1. 0 0. 8 0. 6 0. 4 0. 2 0. 0
1 10 100 1000
p p p
p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p p
p
c c c
c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x x
x
p p p
p
c c c c
g g g
g
l l l l
m m m m
x x
x
x
p p p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x
x x
1 10 100 1000
p p p
p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p p p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x x
p p p
p
c c c
c
g g g
g
l l l
l
m m m
m
x x x
x
p p p
p
c c c c
g g g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x
x
p p p p
c c c c
g g
g g
l l l l
m m m m
x x x
x
1 10 100 1000
Figure 3A
N e = 1 0
n loc
ss
n loc
ss
n loc
N = 1 00 0 N = 1 00 e e ss
applicability bias O MSE O λ P CI success λ H CI success
c c c
5 10 15 20
02060100
p p p
g g g
l l l
mx mx mx
c c c
5 10 15 20
-0.10.1 g g g
l l
mx m ml
x x
c c
c
5 10 15 20
0.050.150.25
g g g
l l
m l
m m
x x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8
g g g
l l l
m m m
x x
x c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8
gl gl gl
m m m
x x
x
c c c
20 40 60 80
02060100
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx
c c c
20 40 60 80
-0.10.1
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x c c c
20 40 60 80
0.050.150.25
p p p
g g g
l l l
mx mx mx
c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8 p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
02060100
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx
c c c
5 10 15 20
-0.10.1
p p p
gl gl gl
mx m m
x x c c
c
5 10 15 20
0.050.150.25
p p
p
g g g
l l m l
m m
x
x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8 p p p
g g g
l l l
m m m
x x x c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8p p p
g g g
l l l
m m m
x x
x
c c c
20 40 60 80
02060100
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx
c c c
20 40 60 80
-0.10.1
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx c c c
20 40 60 80
0.050.150.25
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx
c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8 p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
02060100
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx
c c c
5 10 15 20
-0.10.1
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx c c c
5 10 15 20
0.050.150.25
p p p
gl g g
l l
mx mx mx
c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8
p p p
g g
g
l l
l
m m
x x m
x c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8
p p p
g g
g
l l
l
m m m
x x
x
c c c
20 40 60 80
02060100
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx
c c c
20 40 60 80
-0.10.1 p p p
gl g g
l l
mx mx mx c c c
20 40 60 80
0.050.150.25
p
p p
g g g
l
l l
m m m
x x x
c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
Figure 3B
N e = 1 0
n loc
ss
n loc
ss
n loc
N = 1 00 0 N = 1 00 e e ss
applicability bias O MSE O λ P CI success λ H CI success
c c c
5 10 15 20
02060100
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
-0.10.1
gl gl gl
mx mx mx
c c
c
5 10 15 20
0.050.150.25
g
g g
l
l l
m m
m
x x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8 g g gl l lm m mx x
x c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8 g g gl l l
m m m
x x x
c c c
20 40 60 80
02060100
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
20 40 60 80
-0.10.1
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx
c c c
20 40 60 80
0.050.150.25
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8 p p pg g gl l lm m m
x x x c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8 p p pg g gl l lm m m
x x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
02060100
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
-0.10.1
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx
c c c
5 10 15 20
0.050.150.25
p p p
g
g g
l
l l
m
m m
x x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8 p p pg g gl l l
mx mx mx c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8 p p pg g gl l l
m m m
x x x
c c c
20 40 60 80
02060100
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
20 40 60 80
-0.10.1
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx c c c
20 40 60 80
0.050.150.25
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8 p p pg g gl l lm m mx x x c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8 p p pg g gl l lm m mx x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
02060100
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
-0.10.1
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx c c c
5 10 15 20
0.050.150.25
p p p
g g
g l
l l
m
m m
x x x
c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8 p p pg g gl l lm m mx x x c c c
5 10 15 20
0.00.40.8
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
20 40 60 80
02060100
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
20 40 60 80
-0.10.1
p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx mx c c c
20 40 60 80
0.050.150.25
p p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x x
c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8 p p p
gl gl gl
mx mx m
x c c c
20 40 60 80
0.00.40.8 p
p p
gl gl gl
m m m
x x
x