Health capital depreciation effects on development: theory and measurement

HAL Id: halshs-00832877

https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00832877

Preprint submitted on 11 Jun 2013

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theory and measurement

Martine Audibert, Pascale Combes Motel, Alassane Drabo

To cite this version:

Martine Audibert, Pascale Combes Motel, Alassane Drabo. Health capital depreciation effects on development: theory and measurement. 2013. �halshs-00832877�

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Whole Sample Developing Countries Sample

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Independent variables Malaria DALY Log GDP per capita Malaria DALY Log GDP per capita

Malaria DALY -21.360** -19.477***

(2.10) (2.80)

Malaria Ecology 0.002*** _0.002***

(7.64) (7.23)

Population growth rate 0.003*** 0.516*** 0.005*** 0.062

(3.13) (4.51) (2.78) (0.57)

Log Investment ratio to GDP -0.012*** _{0.422 -0.014}*** _0.446

(3.26) (0.96) (3.59) (1.32) Log Education -0.007*** 1.039*** -0.007*** 0.418*** (4.04) (5.06) (3.08) (2.69) Africa dummy 0.005 -1.532*** _{0.002 -0.268} (1.12) (5.55) (0.39) (0.98) Asia dummy -0.009*** -1.985*** -0.011** -1.182*** (3.69) (5.80) (2.62) (4.32)

Latin America dummy -0.009*** _-1.153*** _-0.013*** _0.106

(5.28) (3.91) (3.63) (0.34) Constant 0.044*** 6.498*** 0.050*** 6.071*** (3.74) (4.61) (3.99) (5.67) Number of countries 129 129 91 91 R² 0.837 0.656 0.838 0.650 Shea R2 0.446 0.443 Fisher F statistic 58.323 52.343 Fisher P. value 0.0000 0.0000

***significant at 1%, **significant at 5%, *significant at 10%. Robust t-statistics in parentheses. ' D6843EB3F$EB

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1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

241

Table 2. Two-step GMM estimation of economic effects of Malaria DALYs per capita (two instrumental variables)

Whole Sample Developing Countries Sample

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Malaria Daly Log GDP per capita Malaria Daly Log GDP per capita

Malaria Daly -20.720** _-19.570*** (2.05) (2.83) Malaria Ecology 0.002*** 0.002*** (6.62) (6.42) Malaria Environment -0.001 -0.001 (0.45) (0.17)

Population growth rate 0.003*** _0.513*** _0.005*** _0.063

(3.09) (4.48) (2.82) (0.58)

Log Investment ratio to GDP -0.012*** _{0.431 -0.014}*** _0.444

(3.24) (0.98) (3.56) (1.32) Log Education -0.007*** 1.046*** -0.007*** 0.417*** (4.02) (5.09) (3.05) (2.69) Africa dummy 0.005 -1.544*** _{0.002 -0.267} (1.08) (5.64) (0.35) (0.98) Asia dummy -0.009*** -1.979*** -0.011** -1.184*** (3.45) (5.78) (2.60) (4.33)

Latin America dummy -0.008*** _-1.146*** _-0.012*** _0.104

(3.50) (3.88) (3.30) (0.33) Constant 0.044*** _6.462*** _0.050*** _6.077*** (3.71) (4.60) (3.95) (5.70) Number of countries 129 129 91 91 R_square 0.837 0.655 0.838 0.650 Shea R2 0.447 0.443 Fisher F. Statistic 28.211 25.667 Fisher P. value 0.0000 0.0000

Hansen OID p-value 0.219 0.515

***significant at 1%, **significant at 5%, *significant at 10%. Robust t-statistics in parentheses

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*6BC 1 66C1 9EBE1 9E61 BC9B71 8A876D1 8FF681 DA98761 8C1 9E61 ACB89ABC1 67A6619B16$F78AC1ACB618A8A7A91861D67 19E616768C61B1B16D9A896D18161 6D9ABC611BA99618A8761A8D1"91B71BCD66C97161AC966D9AC19B16$96C19EAD1 89A7611B77BAC19E6169EBB7B1667BF611#(79BCA1691871333D+18C187681D61 AC19E617A968961#;CC1?1.8C9E60BC13332+1"91BCDAD9D1AC168DAC19E61D96C9E1B19E61 7A0671 A8D1 EAE1 81 8AD61 B1 BA9961 8A876D1 E61 A681 6EAC1 9E61 96D91 AD1 9E891 HD6769ABC1BC1CBD68761AD17A061D6769ABC1BC1BD6876DL1#(79BCA16918713322 1F3+11

EA 1 DA798C6A91 6966C1 ACB61 8C1 E6879E1 D989D1 87DB1 C661 9E61 6$F7B89ABC1 AC19EAD1B01"C1B619B16871A9E1DA798C6A916966C1ACB618C1E6879E1D989D 1819B1 D96FD1 FB661 B71 61 8FF7A61 B77BAC1 #/T0C61 3322+1 E61 AD91 D96F1 BCDAD9D1 AC1 AF766C9AC18166DDABC1B1E6879E1D989D1#&66568 1+1EA7616C689AC16$B6CBD1 8A8A7A91AC19E61F618FA9817)@168D6119E616DA87D1E661AD11BCD99ABC181 DA798C6A91A8D16966C1E6879E1D989D18C17)@1F618FA981E61D6BC1D96F1877896D1 9E61*,*16D9A8961)(,-11DAC19E6D616DA87D18D1ACD96C91B19E61E6879E1ACA89B1

241

"91AD1CB9178611DA798C6A91A8D11BCD99ABC1DAC619E616DFBCD61B1E6879E1D989D1 9B1 7)@1 F61 8FA981 AD1F89A87761 B91 AC1 9E61 AD91 D96F16B6B6 1 #/T0C61 3322+1 FB6D1 9E61BCDAD96C1B1F88696D16D9A896D1

'

(639F87A3B5E5 B

EAD1 89A761 67D1 9E61 68961 BC1 9E61 6789ABCDEAF1 6966C1 E6879E1 B9B6D1 8C1 6BCBA1 F6B8C61 E61 6A6C61 B1 D989AD9A871 8DDBA89ABC1 6966C1 E6879E1 8C1 6BCBA1 667BF6C91 AD1 CB91 768!91 AC1 9E61 7A968961 *B61 68DBCD1 E861 66C1 F91 B8 1EAE1F916FE8DAD16A9E61BC19E61CBC!7AC68A91B19E616789ABCDEAF1B19E61C661 9B1678B8961B61BC1E6879E1D989D168D66C91#/E888169187 13332+1

@8AC181F89A7818996C9ABC19B19E6168D66C91B1E6879E1D989D1877BD1BC9A9AC1 9E6B69A87718C16FAA87719B19E61B9E17A968961"C186C961*B7B1B67D1861 65. 18771DB9D1B18FA9871861DFFBD619B16F6A89618919E61D861896D1.61861AC19EAD1 F8F61 9E891 9E661 861 CB1 9E6B69A871 68DBCD1 9B1 B1 DB1 E61 65.1 86B01 AD1 9ED1 6$96C61DE18D19B1D6F88961E8C18FA9871B1896A8718FA98716BDABC19E6B6 1 B1 8AC1 9E6DAD1 AD1 9E891 )(,-D1 #)AD8A7A91 (D961 ,A61 -68D+1 861 BB1 F6A9BD1 B1 E8C1 8FA9871 6BDABC1 AC1 8C1 86C961 *B7B1 B9E1 B671 )(,-D 1 FBFBD61 1 9E61 .B71/8C018C1.%11 DAC612224 1 68D619E618F16966C16C91 E6879E1D989D18C1 8C1 A6871 E6879E1 DA989ABC1 E661 9E61 6C9A61 FBF789ABC1 7A6D1 9B1 8C1 88C61 86 1 661 B1 AD68D618C1AD8A7A911

11 6D79D1 EAE7AE91 8C1 BCA1 9E61 B761 B1 FBB1 E6879E1 AC1 9E61 6BCBA1 667BF6C918D168D66C911)(,-D1.61A1CB91AC16A6C61B181DACAA8C916691 B1 9E61 7B871 AD68D61 6C1 BC1 667BF6C91 EAD1 AD1 F6E8FD1 CB91 81 DFADAC1 6D791 DAC61 #A+1 6768C91 ACD96C9D1 B1 D66871 )(,-1 68D6D1 861 CB91 88A7876 1 #AA+1 )(,-D1 861 88A78761 BC1 81 89E61 DEB91 F6AB1 B1 9A61 8C1 #AAA+1 BCD66C971 F8C671 6D9A89ABC1 96ECA6D18CCB9161AF766C961;669E676DD 16878A81D66D19B1618168718A619B1 667BF6C91 EAD1 6D791 BC9A96D1 9B1 9E61 68961 F698ACAC1 9B1 9E61 B761 B1 878A81 AC1 667BF6C91 8C1 BCAD1 9E61 6D79D1 BC1 891 9E61 AB!76671 EAE1 F91 7AE9D1 BC1 878A81 6AC1 81 8A61 9B1 0CB7661 768CAC1 891 DEBB7 1 B1 C6ACAC1 FB9AA91 6878A819ED1BC9A96D19B1E8C18FA98716BDABC18C1E6C61E8D18169A6C98716691BC1 B9E1 EAD1 6D791 AD1 81 6AC61 B1 9E61 D67C6DD1 B1 9869AC1 878A81 68A89ABC1 8D1 A6C9AA611B871B1B19E616A776CCA1)667BF6C917B87D11

)

DEE5E39EB

(6B7 1)1?1ABECDBC 1* 133321<E8F96141!1)AD68D618C1)667BF6C9N1E618691B1,A61 8$F698C1BC18BCBA17B9E1"C161*F6C61?161(1,6AD 1>1A64+86E8-5DC4+1 <BADDABC1BC17B9E18C1)667BF6C91.B71/8C01@7A89ABCD1(8A7876189N1 E99FDN''BF6C0CB766B78C0B'E8C76'2329B'3B441

(6B7 1)1?1ABECDBC 1* 1333B1 3A63A86E8 A,AD*A4081+A822A748D282A8*A7467B8D8 7DD78-5DC4+ 1;89ABC871/681B18BCBA156D68E1(8A7876189N1

E99FN''C6B'F8F6D'233B21I<BCD79>1761>A619 13324K1

(79BCA 1A7169187 133221669EBD1B1=DAC1*6769ABC1BC11D661&8A876D19B1(6DD1*6769ABC1 BC1=CBD661&8A876D1(8A7876189N1

2D1 (79BCA 1A7 1876 181?186 1<5 1333D1*6769ABC1BC11D6618C1=CBD661&8A876DN1

(DD6DDAC19E61869A6C6DD1B1<89EB7A1*EBB7D1FD568D28)D47687DDB 1224#2+ 1 F2D2U2941 (C8C 1*1?1%8CDBC 1Q 1222:1)AD8A7A9!8D9617A6168DN181A9A8716A61FD568D28A64+8 7DD73 12B#B+ 1FB9DU:331 (A69 16 1332318C6A1)AD68D6D18C1(A79871@B9AA9N1<E8776C6D18C1@B7A1 56DFBCD61FD568D281257687DDA3 122#*FF766C914+ 1FAAA223UAAA2BD1 /87B 15 122B:1E618BCBA1869D1B16878A8188A89ABC11+A81A57687DD783A,AC 1 D:#3+ 1F243U2491

/6E8C 1A51?15BD6CE6A 165 133341569CD19B1/A9E6AE911+A83A,AC8D287DD7386E8 44643473 19B#3+ 1FD9BUB321

/E888 1(169187 1333216B67AC19E61669D1B1E6879E1BC16BCBA1B9E1FD568D28A64+8 7DD73 133#4+ 1F434U4431

/7BB 1)81?1<8CCAC 1) 1333:1<B6C98N1E61@6D9BC1<6143168D1BCN1D9A771DF80AC1 A6D1'4A564D68FD568D28*EADDB 14B#4+ 1F429U4221

/7BB 1)8 1<8CCAC 1)1?1AC0 17 133321 3A63A86E8 A,AD*A483A,34AE 1;89ABC871/681B1 8BCBA156D68E1(8A7876189N1E99FN''C6B'F8F6D'2D24:1I<BCD79>17618A7122 1 3324K1

/7BB 1)8 1<8CCAC 1)1?1*6A778 1A 133341E618691B1%6879E1BC18BCBA17B9EN1(1 @B9ABC1C9ABC1(FFB8E15D5E8 A,AD*A4 143#2+ 1F2U241

/T0C6 16 1332211C19E61DA798C6A91FB761AC19E618A18C1B9E168961FD568D281**AE8 7DDA45731(8A7876189N1E99FN''BC7AC67A8A76BDA76BC9! CA6DA96'BA'232333'8623D2'771I<BCD79>17618A13D 13323K1 <8D96CD6C 1Q1?17C78E 18 1333B1E61@A81B1"CD9A99ABCD156BCDA66N1)A691"CB61 869D1B16878A81@6876C611+A85D5E8687DD783A,AC 133#4+ 1F432U4421 <B76 16(1?1;686 18 1333B1E61AF891B1FBB1E6879E1BC19B987189B1FB9AA91FD568D28 A,AD*A4844EA3 143#B+ 1F229U2491 <BADDABC1BC168B6BCBAD18C1%6879E 133321&675DA7DD7386E8A64+08',A3488 A64+82D587DD78 A,AD*A46083A*D54 176C68N1.B71%6879E118CAE89ABC1

)689BC 1( 1333B1-D268)644A538D28'7DA86E8A64+0876743.8'4A5*5A464D3.86E8)D7A3 1 ;89ABC871/681B18BCBA156D68E1(8A7876189N1E99FN''C6B'F8F6D'23:4D1 I<BCD79>17618A7122 13324K1 B67 15. 1222417DD78-5DC4+.8)D*64D81+AD5B.86E8)+B3DDB081+A8A658D28D$ 1A58)5D7A33A38D84+A8&68D287DD78)D7B 1;89ABC871/681B18BCBA156D68E1 (8A7876189N1E99FN''C6B'F8F6D'4B491I<BCD79>17618A7133 13324K1

7877F 1A,1?1*8ED 1A) 133321E616BCBA16C1B1878A811+A81A5768FD568D2815D*768 &AE7A86E8BAA 1B4#21DFF7+ 1F9DU2B1

7BDD8C 16 122:311C19E61<BC6F91B1%6879E1<8FA98718C19E61)68C1B1%6879E11+A8FD568D28 )D47687DDB 193#3+ 1F334U3DD1

%8A79BC 1Q1?1<766CD 16 12222176CAC61*8ACD15896D1AC1)667BFAC1<BC9A6D11+A85D5E8 687DD783A,AC 124#3+ 1F444U4DB1

A80 1.1?1,6AD 16( 133321A64+8',A34A4386E87DD78-5DC4+08&675DA7DD78,EA7A8 6E8&75DA7DD787DE64D3 15BE6D96 1;-N1*BA871*A6C6156D68E1;69B01(8A78761 89N1E99FN''F8F6DDDCB'8D989V24B9B391I<BCD79>17618A7122 13324K1

2B1 QADE6D0A 1(169187 133341(177B871"C6$156F6D6C9AC19E61*98A7A91B16878A818CDADDABC11+A8

1A5768FD568D2815D*768&AE7A86E8BAA 1:3#D+ 1F49BU4291

&8C1,A6DEB9 16169187 133341<7A8961E8C618C1878A8N18C87DAD1B19E61*58*17A89618C1DBAB! 6BCBA1D6C8ABD1-D268,5DA468+6A 124#2+ 1F9:U221

,BF6E 1()169187 1333B1-D2685EA8D28 3A63A86E83387674D53 1.8DEAC9BC1)<N1.B71/8C01 8C11$B1=CA6DA91@6DD1(8A7876189N1

E99FDN''BF6C0CB766B78C0B'E8C76'2329B':3421I<BCD79>17618A7122 13324K1 ,B6C9E6C 1@ 166A778C 1A1?1.8EA8 15 133391)689E18C1667BF6C91FD568D287DD78

-5DC4+ 124#3+ 1F92U2341

68C0A 1;7 15B6 1)1?1.6A7 1); 122231(1<BC9A9ABC19B19E618FAAD1B18BCBA17B9E1 1+A88654A5B8FD568D287DD73 123:#3+ 1F43:U44:1 6)BC87 1*1?15B69D 1A 1333B1(")*18C16BCBA1B9EN1(1E8C18FA98718FFB8E1FD568 D28 A,AD*A487DD73 193#2+ 1F339U3D31 6)BC87 1*1?15B69D 1A 1333317B9E18C179AF761BD1B1E8C18FA9871AC18C186C961 *B7B1B67N181F8C6718981AC6D9A89ABC17DD738A44A53 1:4#3+ 1F3:2U3:B1 68 1<A,169187 133231)AD8A7A9!8D9617A6168D1#)(,-D+1B13221AD68D6D18C1ACA6D1AC1 3216ABCD 12223W3323N181DD9689A18C87DAD1B19E6177B871/6C1B1)AD68D61*9133231 1+A867A4 1493#29D2+ 1F322:U33341 68 17 1333:1<E8F961D41%6879E18BCBAD1B1,B!"CB61<BC9A6D1"C11@1*E79E1?1A1(1 *98DD 1>16E2DD8D28 A,AD*A487DD73187D6A6 1F1443DU44:41(8A7876189N1 E99FN''DA6C6A69B'DA6C6'89A76'FAA'*2D:444:23:343D441I<BCD79>17618BX91 3B 13322K1 ;CC 1;1?1.8C9E60BC 1, 133321E61*78618618C19E611AACD1B16AD9D91AC1(A81%64D68 5A68D287DD783A3A657+85D58)6*A584A5A3 1;B124:941(8A7876189N1 E99FN''C6B'F8F6D'24:941 16 16 1222311+A8675DA7DD78*6748D281' 48842$46+656812576 1.8DEAC9BC1)<N1E61 .B71/8C01!1@BF789ABC18C1%8C156DB6D1)6F896C91 @808 156 133321Y15B771/8016878A8 15B771AC1)667BF6C91Z[1568DD6DDAC19E618BCBA1 /6C1B16878A81)D*64D86E8 A,AD*A483A,AC 14D#2+ 1FD4W9:1 @6D9BC 1*% 122:D1E61<E8CAC156789ABC16966C16B987A918C176671B18BCBA1 )667BF6C91)D*64D844EA3 132#3+ 1F342U3491

*8ED 1A) 133341"CD9A99ABCD1)BC591576N1)A691869D1B176B8FE1BC1@61<8FA981"CB61 %64D685A68D287DD783A3A657+85D58)6*A584A5A3 1;B124231(8A7876189N1 E99FN''C6B'F8F6D'24231

*8ED 1A)1?16878C6 1@ 133331E616BCBA18C1DBA8716C1B1878A81%645A 142D#B9:3+ 1 FB93UB9D1

*878!A!689AC 1\ 1)BFF67EB6 171?16A776 15" 133341)696AC8C9D1B1,BC!617B9EN1(1 /86DA8C1(68AC1B1<78DDA8718D9A896D1#/(<8+1(FFB8E11+A81A57687DD783A,AC 1 24#4+ 1F924U94D1

*F6C6 161?1,6AD 16(1> 133321A64+86E8-5DC4+ 1.B71/8C01@7A89ABCD1(8A7876189N1 E99FDN''BF6C0CB766B78C0B'E8C76'2329B'3B441

*98DD 1A( 1229B1)B6D1/69961;9A9ABC158AD6181@B9AA9[1FD568D28)D47687DDB 1 24#3+ 1F32:U4331

*98DD 1A(1?1EB8D 1) 1333:1<E8F961D41%6879E1B619E61,A61<BD61"C11@1*E79E1?1A1(1 *98DD 1>16E2DD8D28 A,AD*A487DD73187D6A6 1F144:DU44:41(8A7876189N1

2:1 E99FN''DA6C6A69B'DA6C6'89A76'FAA'*2D:444:23:343D4D1I<BCD79>17618A71 22 13324K1 8CD6 1< 1*E8F 1/1?1,61*6 1) 133341@B96C9A8716691B17A8961E8C61BC1878A81 98CDADDABC1AC1(A811+A867A4 14B3#2429+ 1F2:23U2:291 EB8D 1) 133321E618D8716691B1E6879E1BC1DBA8718C16BCBA1FBDF6A9N1669EBD18C1 ACACD1"C1(85<1%6879E 18BCBA17B9E18C1@B691569ABC1AC1(A8186B01 .B0DEBF1(81(8A7876189N1 E99FN''868A8B'B6C9D'E6879EP86B0PF8F6D'EB8D)P<8D87F1 I<BCD79>17618A7122 13324K1

EA77A6E 1A169187 1332316878A818C1FA81689ABC1AC1687AN1(17BCA9AC871D91AC19E61A77861 B1)BC>>BB14D76847A7A898&AE7A 1:2#3+ 1F434U4441 .6A7 1); 1333:1(BC9AC1B19E618691B1%6879E1BC18BCBA17B9E11+A88654A5B8FD568 D287DD73 1233#4+ 1F23BD1U243B1 .B71%6879E118CAE89ABC 1333911+A8D26825EA8D28E3A63A08!""#8*E64A 176C68N1.B71 %6879E118CAE89ABC1(8A7876189N1 E99FN''EBAC9'E6879EACB'7B87P6CPAD68D6'3334P6FB9PF896'6C'1

*

E37A+B

*1 E37A+B"B!FEB

Table 2. Variables characteristics and sources

11 68C1 AC1 8$1 <B61B1 &81 *916B1 *B61 <B6961)(,-D1 3 3:1 3 231 3 941 3 BD1 3 2:1 .%11 )(,-13333!33341 3 3:1 3 231 3 921 3 BB1 3 291 .%11 )(,-1AC133331 3 391 3 231 3 2D1 3 B91 3 221 .%11 )(,-1AC133341 3 3B1 3 231 3 931 3 B41 3 2:1 .%11 6878A81)(,-1 3 321 3 331 3 321 2 2D1 3 331 .%11 6878A818B7B1 4 9B1 3 331 42 DD1 2 ::1 B 9D1 *8ED133341 "C6D96C9189AB19B1 7)@1 3 321 3 391 3 D:1 3 441 3 3:1 .)"1 @BF789ABC1B9E1 8961 2 491 !2 231 : 3:1 3 9B1 2 331 .)"1 889ABC11 233 ::1 4B D41 244 D31 3 2:1 2B :D1 /8B1?1,661 1 1 1

291 1

Table 3. Correlation between the main variables

11 7)@17B9E1 <B6961 )(,-D1 )(,-13333! 33341 )(,-1AC1 33331 )(,-1AC1 33341 6878A81 )(,-1 <B6961)(,-D1 3 33D1 2 331 1 )(,-13333!33341 3 341 3 22]1 2 331 1 )(,-1AC133331 3 341 3 2:]1 3 22]1 2 331 1 )(,-1AC133341 3 341 2 33]1 3 22]1 3 2:]1 2 331 1 6878A81)(,-1 3 341 3 94]1 3 94]1 3 93]1 3 94]1 21 1

221

Table 4. List of countries

1

224D92B7!DE5CA2

FCA83 A3 $35AE72CA83

$% $& $ $& $% = =&" =A =&% =: 13" =  =%74% =%%" 1 =A 1?,% 1 5" 1 1A73,%3 17$573,%3 5" 13 4; 1&C73,C 5C7573,C 173 2 17"#5  B" 1%3 /" 2&?,C7$373,C CA; 473,%3 / D3 C?&?A73,%3 2%" D? D3C7E 87643 27D " D D ? D% E%&? C? & D%? 5" 8 , E"% 5" 83 6; F 5 83? 6,, &% 5? : 3%7/" 6 B,  D78; 6&%? CC73,C % D?7$373,%3 6% C%: %% E<; F%&%?

8%F3%&  E" GA%C73=

" A3@% G :7H" 3 IC73,C :? & 6%& 3:" CD92 "562C J D& $3 /< D%"7$3 D78 =%& 6,%7:7D% D&, D%7$5 1 D ;73,%3 D%" 8  D  D:A" 8% D, EA 6" D:" E& 3

D:A" E% E%;?

F"7$372 F&" F; F"7C&" H3 1" H33: E""7"7E3& F"7D 224D9AE%7!DE5CA2

331

*C E37A+B,"B-A85EB

Figure 1. Relationship between Corrected DALY, traditional health indicators and GDP per capita.

1 *B6N1(9EBD51BCD99ABC1A9E18981B1.B71/8C018C1.%11

Figure 2. Relationship between Malaria Corrected DALY, traditional health indicators and GDP per capita. 1 *B6N1(9EBD51BCD99ABC1A9E18981B1.B71/8C018C1.%11 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 Corrected DALY 95% CI Fitted values Life Expectancy 0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 Corrected DALY 95% CI Fitted values Infant Mortality Rate

0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 Corrected DALY 95% CI Fitted values Under 5 Mortality Rate

-2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 040 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 Corrected DALY 95% CI Fitted values GDP per Capita 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1

Malaria Corrected Daly

95% CI Fitted values Life Expectancy 0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1

Malaria Corrected Daly

95% CI Fitted values Infant Mortality Rate

0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1

Malaria Corrected Daly

95% CI Fitted values Under 5 Mortality Rate

-2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 04 0 0 0 06 0 0 0 0 0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1

Malaria Corrected Daly

95% CI Fitted values GDP per Capita