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ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF THE REAL COST OF AID* by Jagdish N. Bhagwati Number 37 February 1969

massachusetts

institute

of

technology

50 memorial

drive

Cambridge, mass.

02139

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MASS '.TECH

FEB

3

1969

DEWEY LIBRARY

ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATES OF THE REAL COST OF AID by

Jagdish N. Bhagwati

Number 37 February 1969

* The views expressed in this paper are the author's sole responsibility, and

do not reflect those of the Department of Economics, nor of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Alternative Estimates of the Real Cost of Aid

Jagdish N. Bhagwati

Economists have been properly concerned recently about the overall net deterioration in the real worth of the foreign aid flow to the developing countries. This has been partly due to the near stagnation in the gross aid

flows, the growth in amortization and interest payments on past aid flows9

and the rise in the price level of the commodities which aid enables recipients to purchase. Furthermore, it has also resulted from a general net deterioration in the terms and conditions of foreign aid. Defined in

the broadest sense, terras and conditions include: (1) the mix of leans and grants in the gross flow, as also the terms of the loans relating to maturity, interest and grace periods on interest and amortization; (2) the tying of

aid by source; (3) the tying of aid by projects, "maintenance" or non-project

uses, and by commodity specification (including P.L.480 type, direct

com-modity assistance); and (4) political strings which may involve sacrifice of

non-economic objectives or economic policy conditions which may result in the

imposition of (objectively) sub-optimal economic policies on the recipient countries by messianic but inept experts assisting the donor countries or

staffing the multilateral institutions which dispense aid.

I wish to thank Carol Gerstl and Andrea Beller for assistance with

the computations which were carried out at the International Economics

Work-shop of Columbia University; and Loda Berlage for computational assistance financed by the M.I.T. Center for International Studies. Detailed break-downs of primary and intermediate information, for 1962-1966, are contained in Tables 7-66, not printed here but available from the author on request. Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, C. P. Kindleberger, and Paul Streeten have made

valuab1e comments

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-2-In this paper, I wish to concentrate on just one dimension of the terms

and conditions of foreign aid: its division between loans and grants and the

diverse terms of the loans. Furthermore, I wish to examine this question

from the donor country's viewpoint. While it is clear that, from the donor's point of view, grants are mors-, expensive than loans and that "softer" terms on the loans imply, in general, higher cost than "harder" terms, the question

of the "real cost" of aid burden to the donor country requires greater pre-cision, especially if we are to discuss important questions relating to

(i) the absolute level of the aid-burden borne by individual donors, say9 in

relation to their G.N.P. levels and (ii) the associated problem of the dis-tribution of the overall aid burden among different donors.

It has become customary, since the empirical work of John Pincus to

deflate the figures of the flow of foreign assistance by adjusting them for the present discounted value of the stream of repayments and interest payments

2

involved in loans as distinct from grants.

The procedure involves choosing alternative discount rates by which

the stream of amortization and interest is discounted back to current value and then deducted from the nominal value of the aid flow to give the "real cost" of the aid. The rates chosen vary from the country's own long-term rate (which presumably measures the return that the donor country would have earned if the sum had been invested domestically instead of given abroad via

aid) to the profit rate earned by private foreign investors (which presumably

2

The estimates by Little and Clifford [3] follow essentially the

procedures as devised by Pincus [4]. These methods were suggested originally by Rosenstein-Rodan [5]. Note that "non-economic" returns such as political

"influence" are being ignored in the analysis. So also is the possibility

that aid may involve zero opportunity cost under conditions of Keynesian

unemployment

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-3-measures the cost that the recipient country might have had to pay to borrow

3

foreign capital if the aid had not been forthcoming)

.

This paper (1) examines the Pincus-type approach critically and out-lines an alternative approach to the method of deflation which is analytically superior (Part I); (2) develops alternative estimates of the real cost of

foreign aid to the major O.E.C.D. donor countries for 1962 to 1966 to illustrate the

new approach developed here; and (3) compares these estimates (i) with those

reached by using the Pincus-approach and (ii) with those resulting from the

use of unadjusted, nominal flows of official aid.

I: Methodology

The correct procedure in estimating the real cost of foreign aid,

leaving aside for the time being the thorny questions associated with the

tying of aid, is to ask what would happen if the aid were not forthcoming. Clearly, there will be a multiplicity of possibilities and effects. But at minimum, one could proceed to consider as a realistic possibility that

some part of the aid flow would be borrowed, and allowed to be borrowed, on commercial terms whereas the rest would have to be absorbed domestically by

the donor country. Given the current annual magnitudes of official assistance,

it seems highly dubious and unrealistic to argue that the same level of funds would be borrowed fully (or not at all) at the commercial terms that would be

demanded for private lending to the less developed countries (LDC's).,

3

Note that the benefit the recipient country receives by virtue or

foreign aid, and hence the cost to it of withdrawing it, has no relevance in itself to the cost that the donor country suffers from undertaking the

aid operation. Hence, taking the private foreign rate of return on capital

as the discount rate has no meaning insofar as it is used because it is

considered to indicate the benefit to the borrowing country (which,

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-4-Consider, for example, the idealised Figure 1, which illustrates a

hypothetical schedule of demand for foreign funds by LDC's, D'D, and a

supply schedule of such funds from private sources to the LDC's assuming

the withdrawal of aid. Aid is assumed to be given at "price" OF, in amount

FQ. If it were withdrawn, the amount "commercially borrowed" would be FL and the volume of funds QL would be the rest of the aid flow that would then be ploughed back domestically. It has been argued, so far, that it

seems unlikely that QL will be zero.

But, for analytical completeness (in the methodological discussion)

,

let us distinguish between (i) Case I: QL = and (ii) Case II; QL > 0*

These cases are discussed successively now.

Case I: Borrowing replaces aid totally (QL = 0)

:

In this case, since aid has been fully replaced by private borrowing

on commercial terms, we have a neat case where we can readily identify the

difference between the terms on which a given amount was granted as foreign aid and the (stiff er) terms on which it would have been otherwise borrowed.

Since the "terms" involve the maturity of a loan, the rate of interest charged and the time profile of repayments (including grace periods), the

cost of aid, defined as the benefit foregone by giving foreign aid as against not giving it, will be equivalent in our present case to a time stream of

differences between (i) the aid stream of amortization and interest payments and (ii) the commercial-borrowing stream of such amortization and interest payments. Thus, for any given value of foreign capital, if Time Stream I;

Y

1

... Y represents the time profile of amortization and interest payments under foreign aid, the Time Stream II; Y- Y the time profile thereof

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Figure (1)'

Price of

Foreign Funds

Volume of Foreign Funds

DD' is the demand schedule for foreign funds for the recipient countries and

SS' the supply schedule of funds to them if aid is not given. Aid is assumed offered at price OF and at level OR « QF. If it were withdrawn, the amount borrowed would be FL which would be below the aid level by LQ.

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-5-represented by Time Stream III: (Y^

-yJ) ,

(y!J - Y^) , = .,(Y^_

n - Y* ) ,

Since time profiles such as this are not easy to deal with, it would be useful if they could be discounted back to their current value. Assuming that there is_ a discount rate which measures the productivity of capital to

the donor country in question, such a discount rate could be used for reducing Time Stream III to a single, workable figure of the real cost of foreign aid.

Note, therefore, that we would require, for our calculations, if we are to end up with a single number:

(i) the actual Time Stream I of amortization and interest payments;

(ii) the hypothetical Time Stream II of amortization and interest payments; and

(iii) a relevant discount rate which measures the productivity of

resources to the donor country in question.

Case II: Borrowing is less than aid flow (QL > 0) :

In this case, clearly two stages of calculation would be involved. First, for the overlapping part (i.e. FL in Figure I), which is equal

to the amount borrowed, the same analysis and calculation would apply as in

Case I.

However, to this cost, we would have to add the second element of

cost which relates to the part that is not borrowed when the aid is

with-drawn (i.e. QL in Figure 1). To the stream of repayments and interest charge associated with this "unborrowed" part of the aid flow (QL) we would then apply the same, relevant discount rate and reduce it to its discounted current value, deduct it from the aid flow (QL), and thus arrive at the real cost of

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-6-Thus, in this realistic case we would need to know, in addition to the

three items required for Case I:

(iv) the proportion of aid flow that would be (commercially* borrowed, International Comparisons: Are the estimates of real cost of aid to donor

countries, thus derived, dir ectly comparable from the viewpoint of determining

the distribution of the aid burden? Two qualifications of significance need

to be pointed out, if such comparisons are attempted.

(1) The single numbers of cost of foreign aid, derived by the procedures detailed above, hide an important dimension: namely, the rates of discount

(equivalent to the domestic productivity of resources) which are used to arrive

at these numbers. Are $X million, calculated as the real cost of aid to the

United States at, say, 5% discount rate, equivalent to $X million, similarly calculated to be the real cost of aid to the United Kingdom at, say, 6%

discount rate? Clearly not: for, the same adjusted flow of aid to the United States will be less productive than to the United Kingdom (6% > 5%). Hence, unless the discount rate used for all donor countries is identical (which

would certainly be an unrealistic assumption in an imperfect world), the

mere comparison of the real-cost-of-aid-f igures will be misleading in its elf

in judging comparative burdens of aid flow among the donor countries.

(2) Moreover, while different rates of discount may be used, cor-responding to the domestic productivity of resources, for computing the aid burden, if the resulting figures are to be compared we would have to assume

that the social time rates of discount are identical between the donor countries (unless the capital markets are perfect and the time rate of discount is

adequately reflected by the rate of interest).

Do we also have to assume that identical utility weights are to be used in making such international comparisons? This would be necessary, of

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-7-course, except that we can alternatively compare the distribution of the aid burden, computed without such adjustment, with what we would wish it to be

jlf_ utility weights were assigned on different ethical principles such as,

4

for example, progressive burden-sharing on the basis of per capita incomes. Limitation of Pincus- type Procedures: How does the analysis presented above

compare with the procedures of computation used by Pincus [4] and later

writers? Their procedure implicitly amounts, in essence, to assuming either

(1) that all aid, if withdrawn, will be put to domestic use; or (2) that if

any aid is commercially borrowed, on withdrawal, it will be lent at the same rate as the discount rate used to reduce the time stream of costs to their current value. Only under either of these assumptions, it will make sense to

use a unique rate of discount to deduce the real cost of aid, by the Pincus-type procedure.

But neither of these implicit assumptions seems plausible: all aid surely will not be put to domestic use, and the (net-of-recipient-country-tax) commercial lending rates on private foreign loans and investment cannot be expected, in an imperfect market, to equal the (gross-of-own-tax) , marginal

domestic productivity of resources. Hence, the computational procedure for

making calculations of the real cost of foreign aid must be adjusted so as to

allow for the possibility of some aid being borrowed commercially and the (net)

terms of this borrowing being different from the (gross) domestic productivity

4

This is, in essence, what is done by Kravis and Davenport [2], The desirability of progressivity in international aid-burden sharing has been stressed by several liberal economists, including Thomas Balogh and Paul Rosens tein-Rodan.

In the following discussion, attention is confined to the methods of

discounting used in these writings. It should be pointed out here, however, that the qualifications noted in the text, in discussing the question of inter-national comparisons, apply equally to these writings. While these qualifications are noted here for the first time, the new calculations to be presented in

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-8-of resources in the donor country. More realistic calculations will have to

proceed, therefore, by making alternative assumptions with respect to (1)

how much of foreign aid, if withdrawns can be expected to be borrowed; aad

(2) at what (net-of-recipient-country-tax) , marginal terms it would be

borrowed.

II: Alternative Calculations

We proceed now to present new estimates of the real cost of aid to

donors. These estimates, as also those of earlier writers, need to be treated

with reasonable skepticism, and are equally more illustrative than definitive,

for they rest at several stages on assumptions which are seriously debatable. Since a major purpose of the calculations is to examine the differences that

emerge in the ranking of donor countries, when the method of discounting is

adjusted as argued above, from those resulting from earlier work, we will continue to make identical assumptions except where our method departs from earlier ones.

In what follows, we will work with the following assumptions:

(1) three alternative assumptions concerning the proportion of foreign

aid loans that will be borrowed commercially: one-fourth, half and three-fourths;

7

(2) three alternative discount rates: 3%, 4% and 5%;

(3) two alternative terms of the commercial borrowing at: 6% interest

The trade-offs between private investment and official aid could be guessed at by cross-section and time series analysis of recipients, for example; Ky Areskoug at Columbia University is attempting this.

These are again assumptions with respect to the productivity of domes-tically used resources; they could have been taken to be approximated by the

long-term bond rates, as suggested by Pincus [4] and Little [3], but this seems dubious too.

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-9-Q

rate and 5 years maturity; and 15% interest rate and 5 years maturity; and

(4) identical application of the preceding three specifications to all donor countries, thus ruling out international variations arising from

this source.

Note that no allowance is made for the reduction in real cost of aid

10

resulting from aid-tying by source or by commodity or project specification. The estimates are made for each of the years 1962-1966, using O.E.C.D.

data produced by the Deve lopment Assistance Committee (DAC). They cover eleven major donor countries. In common with Little and Clifford [3J, the

following assumptions are made in dealing with the different entries in the

tables on flow of official assistance; the only differences being those intro-duced from the changed methods of discounting:

(1) "Grants" are treated at full value;

(2) "loans repayable in local currencies, net" and "sales for recipients' currencies, net" are taken as either grant-equivalents (Assumption A) or as

in-volving zero real-cost (Assumption B)

;

(3) "multilateral contributions" are treated as grant-equivalents; and

(4) private capital transfers are excluded altogether.

Furthermore, since the DAC estimates of aid flows give only the total flows

The first terms have been taken simply from the stiffest average terms

among donor countries in 1962, of Austria; the second set of terms are much stiffer and hypothesised.

9

This eliminates one of the two major difficulties noted concerning international comparisons.

Aid- tying by source, when effective, amounts to a transfer of real resources from the recipient to the donor country, insofar as the former

ef-fectively subsidises the exports of the latter instead of the latter having to

do so. Twenty percent seems to be around the upper limit of such transfers, according to recent estimates. Cf. Bhagwati [1].

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-10-and the average interest rates and maturity on loans for each DAC country, we have worked with two alternative estimates of actual time-paths of loan repay-ments, based on the alternative assumptions that the grace-period on repayment

of principal is one year or five years [3].

We have altogether therefore three alternative estimates of the rate of

discount, four of the proportion of aid that would be borrowed (including the

option of zero lending assumed by Pincus) two of the terms on which commercial borrowing would occur and two of how commodity assistance is evaluated.

Further, we have worked with two estimates of the actual time profile of amor-tization and repayments. Hence, for each country, we can have altogether 72 + 12 (on zero-lending terms) = 84 estimates for each year, of its cost of aid.

In practice, however, only United States and Germany have commodity assistance during the years chosen, so that for each of the remaining countries we have only 36

+

6 = 42 alternative estimates. These measures constitute

essentially a set of "sensitivity" exercises, designed to see how far the ranking

of countries by calculations of the real cost of their aid can be treated as a

reasonably acceptable, statistical index for reaching policy ocnclusions with respect to actual distributions of the aid burden.

The Results: The resulting estimates of the real cost of aid, turned into

percentages of the GNP of respective donor countries, have been reproduced in

Tables 1-5 along with the ranks of the different donor countries under each alternative estimate. Furthermore, for comparison, the ranks of the donors

by nominal, unadjusted aid flows have also been calculated. Table 6 records the

It should be noted, however, that the ex post actual time profile will frequently differ from the ex ante time profile which is considered in the

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-11-weighted average maturity periods and interest rates which have been used in

these calculations.

Among the important conclusions which emerge from our calculations are the following:

(1) The real-cost estimates often have a striking impact on the aid-flow estimates as percentage of GNP: the burden reduces dramatically iu several

cases. Austria, in 1966 for example, shows only one-eighth of its nominal

burden if we take the zero-lending assumption at 4% discount rate and a one-year grace period, and as little as one-fourteenth if we take a five-year grace

period (Table 5)» In the same table, Italy's burden is practically halved for

nearly all the estimates. For Portugal, the burden almost disappears at 3%

discount rate, zero-lending and a five-year grace period in 1964 (Table 3); and

similar calculations in Table 1 show the burden even turning negative (at -0„3%

of GNP in 1962 for 3% discount rate, zero-lending and five-year grace period),

underlining the moral that "aid" is not always as altruistic as it may appear. Among the nations which seem to emerge rather well, however, are the United States (whose terms and conditions for loans are reputedly soft) and France

(whose percentage-of-GNP aid burden continues to be in the range of three-fourths

of one percent despite the alternative adjustments).

(2) Another important consequence of our deflation is that the ranking

of donors by their real cost of aid as a percent of GNP is strikingly different from that for nominal, unadjusted aid figures, generally regardless of the real cost estimates chosen. Among the sensitive countries is Portugal which drops sharply from the first rank in 1964 and 1966 (and second in 1965) by the

nominal aid estimates to fairly near the bottom of the scale for some real-cost estimates and does only a little better for estimates based on the assumption either that 50% or 75% would be lent at the highly favourable interest rate of

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-12-15% or that the discount rate is at 4% or 5%. On the other hand, Canada rises

steeply to a higher rank in 1965 and 1966 by most adjustments.

(3) Finally, the results are sometimes sensitive to changes in the

assumptions about the proportion of aid that would be lent to LDC's if aid were withdrawn, the terms and conditions on which such lending would accrue, and

the discount rate chosen. This is indeed what we would expect from the different combinations of grants and loans, and the different terms and conditions of loans,

12

among the donor countries. The ranks of several countries are admittedly fairly, though not totally, stable: France, for example, remains at the top

through all variations whereas the United States varies at maximum from the

fourth to the sixth rank (in 1966). On the other hand, a few countries show remarkable volatility in ranking as the assumptions change. Portugal, for

example, goes from the first to the eighth rank in 1965 at 3% discount rate (Table 4); and Canada goes from the fifth to the eighth rank in 1965 at 3%

discount rate (Table 4).

It is clearly, therefore, somewhat hazardous to rank donor countries by

their aid/GNP shares and deduce conclusions about donor-generosity and aid

policy even when the nominal aid flows have been adjusted to real-cost

equivalents. The zero-lending Pincus-adjustment itself represents only one of

several possible ways of aiming at "real-cost" estimates from which choice must be made, since the results can, and (as we have shown) in actual practice

do, vary with the adjustment-method adopted.

12

The precise manner in which changes in ranks are brought about can be inferred by examining the behavior of the loans in response to alternative methods of adjustment to get their real-cost equivalent. These data have been

stencilled, for the years 1962-1966, for each donor country, along with the

grants and grant-equivalent estimates, (as Tables 7-66), and are available from

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References

[1] Bhagwati, J. The Tying of Aid. UNCTAD Secretariat, 1st November 1967;

prepared for and forthcoming in Proceedings of the second UNCTAD Conference in New Delhi; reprinted in J. Bhagwati and R. So Eckaus

(ed.), Foreign Aia„ Penguins (Modern Economics Series), 1969.

[2] Kravis, I. and M. W. S. Davenport. "The Political Arithmetic of Inter-national Burden- Sharing," Journal of Political Economy

. August

1963, pp. 309-330.

[3] Little, I. M. D., and Clifford, J. International Aid. London; Allen &

Unwin, 1965.

[4] Pincus, J. "The Cost of Foreign Aid," Review of Economics and Statistics,

November 1963, pp. 360-67.

[5] Rosens tein-Rodan, P. N. "Determining the Need for and Planning the Use of

External Resources," Center for International Studies, M.I.T.,

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General Notes to Tables 1-5

In each table, the countries are listed according to

their ranks, in descending order, given by the

percentage of nominal aid to G.N.P. level.

The A-estimates, for U.S.A. and Germany, represent estimates

of "real cost" of aid, assuming that "loans repayable in

local currencies, net," representing primarily commodity assistance for the U.S.A., are to be treated at full,

nominal value. Under the B-assumption, however, they are

treated as having zero opportunity cost and thus assigned only zero "real cost." The ranks assigned, when there

are both A and B estimates, are by A estimates only. The

ranks change sometimes, if B estimates are used,, but not

always.

3. The ranks of the countries , for each estimate presented,

are given in brackets, directly under the percentage estimates.

4. The primary information, on unadjusted loan and aid flow levels, and the processed information on the real cost equivalents of loans (as distinct from overall aid) are

given separately in the countrywise tables which start from Table 7.

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