V
¥;li UNITED NATIONS
I ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCIL
ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA
Sub-regional Meeting on Economic Co-operation
in West Africa " ' , '
.Niamey, 10-22 October 1$66 '
Distr.
LIMITED
i
E/CN-14/INR/141
3 October 1966
'■.■*■;--"■■
INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT IN WEST AFRICA : AN INTEGRATED ANALYSIS
r
"'v:; ■:■ ' -M73-1867.
&*£/ .-r'-'A■ ■"' ■ ''■•■■'* '■
E/CN.I4/INR/I4I .
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. '. INTRODUCTION
Industrial Development Sub-regional Co-operation II ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
III COUNTRY ANALYSES Dahomey.
Gambia Ghana Guinea Ivory Coast Liberia -Mali
Mauritania
Niger . ' -
Nigeria Senegal , Sierra Leone
Togo
Upper Volta
IV INDUSTRY ANALYSES.
Extractive Industries Pood Processing Industries Sugar and Confectionery . Tobacco
. Textiles and Clothing Shoe and Leather
Wood Manufacturing, including
Furniture and Fixtures Pr.per and Paper Manufacture Printing and PublishingParas<■
1 - 11 5
11
12 - 29 30 - 99
3236 41 47 51 58 64 69 75 79 84
8891 95
100 104 110 112 116 118 123
125
128 133- 35
- 40
-46
- 50 - .57 - 63-' 68
- 74
-. 78 - 83 - 87 . - 90 - 94 - 99 - 183
- 109
■ - 111
- 115
- 117 - 122 - 124- 128
-■132
- 136.(■-'
E/CN.14/INR/141
V
Natural Rubber Chemical' Industries Brick and Refractories .
Glass . . Ceramics
Cement Industry
Cement-based Industries Iron and Steel
Non-ferrous Metals Electronics Industry Engineering Industries
FURTHER INTER-INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 184 - 193
ANNEX
Table 1
Tables 5-18
Tables 19-45
West African Sub-region 19-63 - Simplified Provisional Presentation of National Accounts Vest African Sub-region 197!; - Simplified
Provisional Presentation of National Accounts Foreign Exchangee of the "• ost Africa Sub-region;
in 1963 and 1975
Resources and Uses: West Africa 1963 and 1975 Ebonomic indicators for 19^3 and 1975 ^
country (in alphabetical order)
Industry tables (in order presented in Section IV).
-3
E/CN.14/1SR/141
I. INTRODUCTION
1. west Africa's economy will develop.considerably in the next ten years. -The speed of this development depends on decisive and wise action by West African leaders. The resources and present economies of the four-- teen independent nations comprising West Africr. were otudied to prepare an overall- development programme which may help West .Africana achieve a rapid ahdbalanced economic growth. This .paper serves as an introduction to and 'summary of the.work that has been done thus-far. .
2. Practically every "expert" who has ever prepared a study relating to Africa includes some reference to the inadequacies ,of the available data.
Population or even industrial oensu8es may be subject to margins of error which exceed 25 per cent.> However, this summary is presented with a high degree of confidence in the' usefulness of the data- and conclusions shown.
The development programme presented here is certainly-not 'the only one ^
feasible/ and probably not the best, in specific detail. But this devel
opment programme' does'provide' a balanced growth for the sub-region.and a considerable improvement in the standards of living for all the-people.
Balanced growth is;particularly important in developing.countries because
investment funds are never sufficient and thus an.unwise investment (out.
of balance with demand or input availabilities) means a real slowdown in progress toward economic betterment because the misused resources could
have been, more productively employed. . -,•■•••
Industrial Development. • • '
3. Industrial development in West Africa must be viewed in the perspec tive of the existing'population and national income.' Even the largest country of West Africa, Nigeria, consumes less than' 10 per cent of the non-food products and services'consumed in Switzerland, the smallest European nation (with a population eoual to 10,per cent of Nigeria's
50 million people)4
a.-1:
E/CN.14/lNn/l41
Page 2
4
Thus, one of the major obstacles blocking more rapid industrialization xn West Africa is simply the low purchasing power of any one country. ' Certaan industries cannot be economically established with production capacity lower than some technically-determined level. And while'there .
«y be many .valid .reasons (political, social and other) for establishing.,
some economically inefficient plants, an entire industrialization programme run .this way would bankrupt any country. ,■.- .. . '., ...
5. Many^ Vhe detailed^ studies which underlie tte' development programme'
presented have; concluded, that some form of sub,regional economic co-opera-' ticn is either absolutely necessary or highly desirable if the industry is .
to be established. " : '
Sub-regional Co-operation ■ ' . -.,-.,
5. There are many fo^ of sub-regional economic' co-operation possible ' and these should each be subject to further discussion. However, the major form- of co-operation contemplated in most of the pre-feasibility reports is
-imp^a. system of allowing factories in one West African country to have access to the market demand of the entire sub-region without restrictive
tariffs or other trade hindrances. , ,\ '
7. There aremany advantages to' a sub-regional, West African' market in
contrast to -national markets:, . ■ ■. ,
(a) .For many industries, the projected demand, even in the next ten ' '
years, of any one West African country is too.low to allow ' establishment of one economical production unit.
(b) The demand in one country may economically support a plant, but
only if a very narrow selection.of styles or sizes'is.produced.
: Two plants, in two countries, could each specialize enough'to "
achieve production efficiency but could sell their products in both countries so that consumers would have the advantage of
.low prices and wide selection. ' '
. .... . , . ■ , . ._ . v . . ., . E/CN.14/INR/141 ... ' . .. ... .. , ... .; , . ._, ... . -Page 3
- (c) Some industries, which"produce intermediate or capital input
■ : ■ products, consumed primarily by industries such as (a) and (b) '' '■ ■ above can, of course, only be established if these other indus-'
. tries'are established (which, in turn, requires sub-regional
market access). ■ i
(d) Some industries, even though selling all of their production.
t* ! . within one country,-will require input materials which can be most economically obtained from, some other West African' area.
(e) . Some industries may eventually be completely-viable-within one -
: . state's boundaries, but could get started much earlier if they . had access to larger markets. An early start may.result in
West Africa's being able to export to other sub-regions, that have not yet achieved an integrated market which would support
. these industries. .- - .■."..-:■- ;
(f) Finally, there are all the'indirect benefits to purely lobal
■■ ■■ 'industry (such as a local shoe factory) because of the "increased -■ - . purchasing power of the employees of those plants which'depend"
on sub-regional supplies or markets. '
8. Despite these logical and agreed theoretical advantages of sub-
- regional market, each country must determine if elimination of its trade barriers and co-operation on sub-regional economic development will be beneficial to its own economic progress.
Cv ■ _ .
' 9. In another section of this summary paper there is a brief analysis of each of the fourteen West African countries, assuming implementation of the development programme presented. It is encouraging to note from, these descriptions that every country ehows considerable economic improvement during the period under review. Furthermore, every country has some industrial development which requires or will benefit from access to
sub-regional markets.
E/CN.14/INR/141
Page 4 ' ■!
10. In addition .to the simple freedom of market access among all fourteen countries of .West Africa, there are several other-important types of economic co-operation which will "be necessary if, s .this development programme is to be implemented- There is need for a central organization for economic research and planning. Eventually, some central organization1should have authority
' . . ■ ■
to p.ct- on behalf of the .member states in relation to' the development pro grammes of .individual states. . The West Africans will all benefit from the
creation of a! sub-regional payments union and from early agreement oh many ' *
technical standards. Since West Africa will still be a major raw material
exporting area.of the world, some central organization, .should co-ordinate the '"
production and sales prices for selected products. The degree of authority or power given to such a central organization is a matter for political
decision, but the real effectiveness of these central organizations ultimately ■ depends on willing co-operation by each of the countries and not on the
legal- technicalities.' . ' ■ (
11. The individual industries projected for establishment' in the sub-
region are described.in the section following the country analysis. The last section of this summary paper deals with the analytical techniques, particularly the input-output and linear programmed belancihg procedures used to-prepare the development programme.E/CN.14/INR/141
Page 5
; . .II. ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK
12 - All of this development process in industry roust relate to parallel development in the'agriculture and services sectors of the sub-region. And, of course, all these economic activities must be related to .population growth. This section of the summary paper presents the. general macro-
economic conclusions from the analysis. ' . - -
13.-. The industries projected for West Africa by 1975 will resulfin an overall-rate .of growth in industry of 14-2 per cent per year. The growth rates in-the poorer countries are higher (maximum,projected rate: 21.6 ■ for.Niger), while those countries which are relatively tetter situated now have somewhat lower industrial growth rates (see Table 2).
14.' It is recognized that these are ambitious targets, but even with this
rapid economic growth, the.per capita income for West Africa in 1975 will average-only mi, compared with the 1963 figure of <>93, an insignificant
■ increase when viewed in the perspective of the absolute increases.in • income among developed countries during this period.
15' This development programme'will require careful planning and wise .
decisions on both an individual and a government-level. West Africans will have to increase their rate of domestic savings (through taxes or otherw.se) from the present .9.2. per cent to at least U-4 per cent in 1975, and these
savings rates already assume' that.one-third of all domestic fixed-capital
formation will be financed from, abroad. ;
.16. The analysis covered the entire period 1963 to 198O and then selected 1975 as a typical cross-section year. Most of the conclusions and data m this paper-relate to 1963 and 1975• (Some data were adjusted to provide
a more "typical" 1963 *>ase..)
17. Tables 1 and 2 show the detailed statistics on resources and uses of the gross national product for each country, for. 1963 and projected for^l975.
The mining and carrying and manufacturing industries data-are derived, fro.
the detailed pre-feasibility reports. Remaining data are either based on
special separate studies (e.g., FAO studies on West African -agriculture), or
on a normal relationship between these major sectors in the economic accounts.
.,./.*
■ E/CN.14/INH/141 ■ ^
Page '6
18. Table 3 presents detailed information'on the present and projected balance of payments situation for-West Africa. By 1973,. the sub-region will still be"importing large quantities of consumer goods— particularly food.- and capital goods. The trade deficit is considerably, larger, in 1975 than in 1963, and this is a natural consequence of rapid development based 'largely,on imported equipment and the fact that investment is always made ;a few years, before output compensates, for the foreign 'exchange loss. In fact, only when the.economic development slows substantially.will the trade deficit disappear.
This.trade deficit also reflects the fact that agricultural* o;'utp;ut~'is;sckom susceptible to such accelerated growth plans as industry because of the re luctance of farmers to, change farming techniques. ■Typically- 'also;■industrial development is seen as more glamourous and receives more attention'"from1"
government planning agencies.
19-. Trade within the sub-region will, in 1975, become1 very substantial - about 30 per cent of the entire industrial gross output. If the output of the food industries is excluded from total output since they are traditionally
"local" industries, then this sub-regional trade will equal more than 50 per cent of the output. This sub-regionai trade is statistical evidence of the importance of :those industries relying on sub-regional rather than national
markets. . , • '
20. .Although there will be a-substantial trade deficit with the world, the sub-^regional trade, based on industries projected in the development pro- ,gramme, will balance between the three present monetary zones (with the franc
zone■having.■ a slight trade surplus in 1975)- Within limits, these trade' balances (and,; in.fact, the level of country industrialization) can be changed by relocation.of production capacities of industries which may ■ economically be placed in any one1 of several areas.
21. One.of the advantages-of the type of economic analysis performed is that the development plan is: flexible enough and the'techniques of analysis suitable to allow changes to.be made in the locations and/or capacities of - individual plants (within limits, of course) to accommodate social and
political necessities. . ..
, '. , E/CN.14/INR/141
Page 7
22. Revisions of this development programme now being prepared by the secretariat may be expected to improve the growth-rates of Mali and'Senegal in particular. Upper Volta's economy, although projected to grow at a very
■ fast rate in this programme, will still not achieve the minimum target set by:the secretariat - private consumption per ciaput, per year, of $70. Thus, the next version of this development programme is expected to show an improve- - ment in the economic prospects of these three countries at the insignificant
expense of some of those countries,now shown with much more favourable
economic prospects in 1975. - ■
1 i ...
23. One very significant indication of the "success".of the balancing effort is the change-in the ratio -between a country's share of the sub-region popula tion and its share of manufacturing value added. When this ratio equals
'one1 the country may be said to have its "fair share" of industry. Of course, not every ratio will reach''one' because some of the. West African countries have more natural resources and a head-start over other countries ' in the sub-region. But .the development programme presented by the secretariat results in a general movement- of these ratios towards unity, which means an improved "equitable" share of industry among the fourteen countries an 1975.
This tendency is shown in the graph in the Annex. (The unequal distribution of industries in 1975 is primarily caused by concentration of the mining
industry in just a few countries.)
24. 'The development planned for West Africa will require about $3,700 million total investment in 1975- , Of this amount it,is reasonable to expect about two-thirds from domestic sources and one-third from foreign. In the secondary' sector alone, the 1975 investment requirement will be fPl,6l0 million, of
which about 50 per cent will have to be obtained from abroad. For individual countries the Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation maintains a reasonable relationship to the GNP, except in three cases. The very large projected investments in the mining industries of Guinea, Liberia and Mauritania will be largely foreign, however, so the high investment relative to GNP is
explainable.
. E/CNU4/INR/141 ' ; '
Page 8 ~ . ' \
25/; The economic development projected for West Africa will result in, significant changes in the relationships between different sectors of the .economy,.as shown in Table 4- Thus, although private consumption will•
, increase,absolutely, as,a percentage of total uses it must decline so that " .;
. •; more resources.may be devoted .to the necessary fixed capital formation.- ■ ■ ' . Also, the Blow growth rate of .the primary sector chows up immediately :in . :
■■-. its. declining contribution to total .resources. . .
26; One of the serious obstacles to implementation of the development pro
gramme will be the shortage of skilled manpower. A separate document (e/CB.
>. 14/lMn/ili) describes this problem; however, analysis of the total manpower
■ ...requirements based on individual industry studies suggeste the shortage may be.more:serious than originally thought. More .details on-this problem.will be available, to the West African states in-the revised and.expanded presenta
tion..tobe completed later. ■ .- '" . " J
27.- It is the nature of a development programme that it be considered a
living document - subject to'change and growth. This programme is presented
with the knowledge that it was outdated as soon as it was printed and that individual countries will have many ways of improving it. This conference : ' should help the ECA secretariat and the West African countries resolve proV
lems and forge ahead with even better plans and start taking the action.
* necessary to implement economic development. ' - '
28. Many very detailed industrial analyses have been completed to develop this programme. But the work is not yet finished. One of the objectives ' of the Niamey.conference is to start the West African sub-regional work to
refine and improve this first draft of a development programme.
'29. This summary shows data for individual industries"and individual coun tries," It does not include data en'the projected capacities for each industry within each country.' The ECA will^distribute''these details," and
■ the final version of the suggested development programme in December 1966. .
For this conference, then, the discussions can deal with the policy issues
and principles involved in the development programme.
' _ ■ . E/CN.14/INR/141
■ ■ n Page 9
. ... III. COUNTRY ANALYSES ■
30. The country analyses which follow are based on very detailed specific recommendations by many different, industrial experts. However, the Secre-, tarlat has had to modify some of these recommendations to provide for sometimes
more, sometimes lessdemand in.order to maintain a-balance among all the industries. This, balancing work will, be completed during November, and thus the projected capacities (and even some locations) may have to be changed from the data'presented in this.summary, While the.secretariat expects individual figures to change, the general aggregation of benefits for each country should not require extensive modification,, with some exceptions,
31. The country analyses are given below, in- alphabetical, order of the West African nations.. The economic growth of each country is.more/specifipally , described in tables 5-18 in the Annex. These tables show selected economic indicators for manufacturing and mining arid quarrying. Output, imports, '
etc.', in other sectors are not shown in these tables. ' ,
Dahomey ■..-...■■■■
32. "Tne.Uahomean economy has been almost stagnant (0.6 percent growth per annum) in the early 'sixties, but is expected to grow at a rate of 5-5 per cent per annum-.from 1963,to 1975- . ;Thus,.of.course, is,mainly due ;to the.
planned industrial development which will £row at 19,1 per. cent per year,., i.e., at a'higher-rate than the' sub-regional average, thus. compensating,.for,..
the low starting point. ... ... ■ :'
33. In absolute terms the most important industries will be the food,
tobacco and beverages, manufactured almost entirely for the domestic market.
In contrast, the'other important industries are mainly oriented toward the.-, sublregional market'(textile and clothing - exporting 62 per cent of the output; and chemicals -exporting almost 50 per cent of ite.output). Where as the relatively important.engineering industries.are expected to. supply , the.domeetio market, the. other large, industry - oil expelling - is,strongly
oriented toward the markets outside the sub-region. ...-■
E/CN.14/INR/141
Page 10
34. The major industries proposed are based on local ra» materials
(oleaginous,'cotton and.foodstuffs).
35* : Table 5 shows some specific economic iridic^ors for 1963 and 1975
relative" to iDahomey. ... '' ''■ '- ' ' "V; ■ '■'■' : ■ *
Gambia - '
36. Gambia
rfcet can^ hardly aooc^odate any .indust^ which^M^^op tta of. economic growth expected by the' sub-region.'
37. The.proposed: development results in a rate'of-growth for the entire econo^yof-6.5 per. cent per annum (i.e., much.above the eub-^gional average of 5-8 per cent per annum) which directly reflects the fast growth of
'manufacturiiig industries (18.1 per cent per annum).' ' ":. ''
-38. Hhereas the important food, beverages and tobacco ^'industries will- ■■ ' -axnly. supply the local market, the textile and clothing industry'planned
for Gambia muet export to the sub-regional market about■ 70 per cent of its ' output. AS described in the section on textiles, a considerable amount of ': ' sub-regional trade will develop and Gambia will also import textile products
equivalent to 20/.per.cent of its textiles'-output;. -^ : ■■•/' ■ ■ ■ ;
39. The other industries proposed, are typically local, With the exception - of the. metal products industry, half the output of which will be consumed '
in other countries of the sub-region.
40. Table 6 shows some, specific economic indicators for 1963. and 1975.
relative to.Gambia, - .. ... ...'. ..'.-. <■'>
Ghana.
41.. Compared, with other countries of. the, suVregion, Ghana Walready .. - achieved a relatively-higher degree., of industrialization. . The economicprob-
lems , experienced by-this country. in: recent, years have, slowed the rate of . .
grovrth compared with that achieved, in-the Past..(,an. estimated 3.9-per cent .
r
' . ' ■ E/CN.14/INR/141
; 7 1 • ?ago II "
. growth rate during I96O-I965 in.contrast to.more than 5.6 per cent for the five years prior to i960). . Although presently over-burdened with foreign
debt, Ghana's domestic savings have been very high in the past and may again provide the extra resources to support a rapid industrialization.Ghana, is not especially well endowed in immediately usable mineral resources
and the formerly important industry, gold mining, will'undoubtedly decline due to the depletion of reserves. Therefore, Ghana will have not only to■develop new but also to replace old sources of income by newly-created , ■
» industries. The shortage of immediately exploitable mineral resources adversely affects Ghana's balance of trade which has to support the burden of relatively large imports of raw materials and semi-products. These extra burdens contribute to absolute rates of growth for the economy as well as for industry which are below the sub-regional averages. Nevertheless, the development effort may not be any less than in other leading countries of
the, sub-region- . " '
42. The total Ghaiiaian economy is expected to grow at an average rate of . 5.1 per cent per annum for the period 1963-1975. This period already
includes ths years of slowed growth (1963-I966) so the true rate for 1967-
1975. must "be much higher. Likewise, industrial growth is projected at only10.8 per cent per annum, but must be much higher than that from 1967 to 1975.
43« By 1975 £°me major nsw industries will be created. In absolute terms
of the value of output the domestic market-oriented food, beverages and tobacco industries-will still be the most important (slightly less than 25^ per cent of the total output). But they are immediately followed by:
' Share of 1975 .
Gross Output (%)
* Engineering industries ■ ' 14
Chemical industries (including rubber •
. and petroleum'products) > 13
Non-ferro.uc metals, metallurgy . 13
Foretit-based industries . . 10
Mining and quarrying . ' 10.
^
E/CN.14/INR/141
Page 12
44. The non-ferrous, forest-based and mining industries are export-oriented, and willexport We thani' 50 per cent of their gross output outside the sub- region. Nevertheless, they will also export to the sub-region 12 per.cent of
their' output a' ■ ■ ■
45.. The chemical industries will be more domestically, oriented because of the impact of the petroleum refinery. . Of the other chemical products, more than 25 per'cent will be .exported to the sub-region.
46., Table .7 shows some specific economic indicators for 1963 and 1975
relative to Ghana. ....
Guinea
47. Guinea's economy is expected to grow at a compound rate of 7-5 per cent per annum, and its.industries at 17-6 per cent per annum, i.e., well above .
•the'sub-regional averages. This ia mainly due to the mining and non-ferrous (aluminium industry which will be responsible for more than 38 per cent of
industrial gross output in 1975-' .' ■
48. To avoid the adverse influence (and dangers)' of such one-sided develop- ment, several other industries have been proposed for Guinea. Besides the food, beverages and tobacco industries supplying the domestic markets, - important textile, chemical and engineering industries are proposed. They will be based on. sub-regional rather.than local-demand; their output re
presents-22 per cent of .the. whole Guinean industry and almost half of that
is foreseen f-or exports to the sub-region.
49. The 'non-ferrous metals industry will expand considerably the manufacture of alumina with the objective of, converting into alumina two-thirds of the extracted bauxite and to manufacture 240,00O tons of aluminium metal. A , rolling mill established here will depend upon sub-regional markets.
' 50. Table 8 .shows some specific economic indicators for 1963 and 1975 -
relative -to Guinea.
E/CN.14/INr/141
Page 13
Ivory Coast
51. ' Ivory Coast is a booming country which' in the early 'six-ties has achieved a spectacular rate of growth.of about. 10 per cent per annum. The rather low base enabled such achievement, but such a rate of growth can hardly be ■ expected, to continue during a longer period of time, especially in view of rather modest natural resources and lack of minerals.
52. The Ivory/Coast economy is expected1 to.maintain an overall rate of growth of 6.3 per cent per annum and industries are expected,to grow yearly 15.3 per cent. Both rates are higher than the sub-regional averages- The
country's population already consumed £140 per caput in 1963 (only Ghana and Senegal have higher rates) and by 1975. this figure will reach $206.per
caput - i.e., an increase of 3^2 per cent per'annum. If this consumption (i.e., income) will be. properly distributed among the population, Ivory . Coast may be one of,the most prosperous countries of the continent. ■ .
53» . Just as in the other countries of West Africa, Ivory Coast's food in- dustry, with its 1975 output equal to 28 per cent of total industrial pro duction, is the most important contributor to the economy. This rather
domestically oriented industry (only 20 per cent of output is expected to be exported overseas) is followed in importance, by other industries, some of.
which did not exist in 1963:
' - ' - Share of 1975
Gross Output (%) Chemical industries, including petroleum
refinery ' . , .22
Forest-based industries 13 ' <
Engineering industries ■ - 12
Textile and clothing industries 8
" ■ 55- .
54- All these industries show an important degree of reliance on the sub- regional market. .They will-export to it more than 30 per cent of their
•output and, additionally, 12 per cent (mostly products of- wood and furniture
■E/C'N'. 14/IMH/141
Page 14 "■".' ' -
manufacturing industries) outside the sub-region. The chemical .industries
alone.will export. 40 per cent of their output to the sub-region.
55« Ivory Coast will be responsible for some sub-regionally important pro jects, especially in the field of chemical industries, namely: a high
pressure polyethylene plant (30,000 tons per .annum) and a rayon viscose
plant which will supply almost all the sub-regional market except forNigeria. • . . ; ■ . , . . :
56. Generally, in the sub-regional framework, Ivory Coast will be mainly
. - ■
responsible for the more sophisticated products. This allocation of industry is based on the present state of economic development and favourable labour situation.
57." -Table 9 shows the specific economic, indicators for 1963 and-. 1975 •-
relative to Ivory Coast. : ■ ' - ■
Liberia ■' . - ' ' . ■ ■ .
58. Thanks to its national resources-^ Liberia has recently experienced a rapid economic development (the rate of growth of the total economy was 8.7 ' per cent per annum in-the early 'sixties). Further development is considered perfectly feasible, particularly in view of the proposed integrated iron and
2/ ■ ■" • ■
steel plant.—7 An iron and steel plant is an obvious pole of attraction for many o.ther types of industries.
59* The country's economy is expected to grow at 8.1 per cent per annum
compound rate (the highest rate in the sub-region)'and its industries
(mining and" manufacturing) at 15.0 per cent' per annum (also above the sub-
l/ Man-made - i.e., rubber plantations; and.natural - iron ore.
'2/-'All technical and economical considerations indicate that Buchanan,
Liberia, is the .best possible location of such a plant in.the sub-region.
regional averages). Although this growth rate.seems, very attractive, it, places unusual .burdens on the economy. Capital Formation, requirements will equal almost 50 per cent of the total gross national product and thus con- - siderable foreign financing will be necessary. The economic projections, fortunately, show Liberia" achieving'a fairly large positive trade balance (thanks to iron ore exports)' whihh should help support the required foreign investment. Although this picture is very encouraging and offers;-favourable conditions for keeping the country's economic situation under proper control, the Government will have to-be aware of the dangers of inflation. The' ■ economic plan,.however, provides for a rapid growth rate in consumer products so that shortages of supply should not. contribute to the inflationary pressure.
(The per caput private consumption can grow at the very rapid rate of 5»1 per cent per year, according to the development plan.)
60,' -The sub-regional trade of Liberia is practically balanced, and-the- "- danger, of disturbances arising' out■:■ of possible monetary problems (in view, of the different monetary systems within-the sub-region) can be avoided and
should; not be regarded as an obstacle to co-operation. ■ ■ -•'
61. .Besides mining (40 per cent of industrial output, almost entirely ex~ . ported outside the. sub-region) and/food industries (producing for the domestic market) Liberia's major industries will be'iron and steel, and engineering . (20 per cent of the total industrial output) which will export to the sub- region not less than-70-per cent of their output. These, industries would riever.be established without access to sub-regional markets and, conversely;
could hardly be established in any other West African countries where the:
opportunities to create them are much less favourable-
62..-The industries proposed for Liberia are not labour-intensive, and Liberia's rather, limited labour force' should be:. able.; to ..support, them without endangering important agricultural activities (e.g., rubber) known to.be labour-intensive.
63. .Table 10 shows-the specific economic indicators for 1963 and 1975 re
lative to Liberia.
E/CN.14/INR/141
Page 16Mali
64. By 196;3ViMali was one of the poorest countries of the sub-region. It
has a land-locked' location, very modest natural resources, and the heavy burden of high transport costs'for imported as well as exported goods. In spite of these handicaps, Mali has succeeded in maintaining a-reasonable rate.of growth"bf the;economy (estimated to average 3-4 per cent per annum ■/
in the. early-'sixties"1). . - . \ .- . ... :i'" " : - . •
"65.■ -The present .development plan' results :in Mcli's. having "one of the highest industrial-growth rates in the sub^region' - I8.-5 per'cent per year/. When industrial .growth is combined with other activities, the overall rate of \ '.growth is. 4.J7 per pent per annum which is much below the sub-regional average
of 5.8;per, cant .and is considered unsatisfactory. Although'the. growth.of private consumption remains moderately low (1.6 per cent: per caput), the . .domestic-savings component 'represented only about 55 per cent, of nee.ded .
Capital Formation. ,..,;' ' '■ ' - >'■ '. . • ■ :■,.■ ..'
66. . liali will depend on the sub-regional market for several of its indus tries; such;'.-as the .textile, clothing, footwear and leather industries. These industries-'are-particularly suited to help Mali develop because'of the
abundaric&'of co.tton and :anima.l, husbandry resources. iy- 197-5, /these, indus tries will represent 3Q'per cent of the total industrial output of .which ■ about 60 per cent is to be exported to the sub-regionV< Other industries
are mainly oriented-toward the domestic market and. the neighbouring countries' markets (Senegal, Upper Vblta,. Niger, Ghana and ivory. Ccast) and are based
primarily-on providing import substitution. . ■ '■' ''■■' \
67. One bf vthe disadvantages of a land-locked, country 'can bei turned into an
advantage within; the framework of sub-regional co-operation..,' Industries
located in Mali will have the-natural protection bf transport costs from the
nearest outside source (and.transport costs will decrease only.slowly as the
transportation system is improved). Thus,, if the markets of; neighbouring
countries are open to-Mali, it will,be able to: .supply many kinds of products
at least' as efficiently as if ,these neighbours had to purchase from equal
distances within their own boundaries ,qr 'outside them. ■ ■■ "'•
E/CN.14/INR/141
Page 17
■ \ . ■
68. Table. 11.shows the specific economic indicators for 1963 and 1975
relative to Mali. - ., :
Mauritania ", '
69. Mauritania is fortunate inrhaving valuable mineral, resources, i»e., iron and copper ores. The iron deposits have already been converted into an industrial venture, but copper remains yet to be developed. In the early
•sixties, because of the iron ore mining, Mauritania enjoyed an unusual 12.4
per cent per annum, growth rate. . .
70. With more diversified industry, and a larger economic base, Mauritania's economy will now probably grow at about 6-5 per cent per annum and its
inuustry.at 20.1 per cent per annum - the second highest rate in the sub-
region. Private consumption will increase at 5.2 'per cent per annum (the
highest rate in.the sub-region), and .produce a .relatively satisfactory per
daput income ,of &175 in 1975 compared.with $96 in 1963- v
71. Within the"framework of the development plan, efforts have :been made to assure a"reasonable diversification of Mauritania's industry. Nevertheless, even in 1975 the economy will still be strongly oriented toward mining and metallurgy (of copper) and the type of engineering industries,concerned with
further transformation of copper (wire and insulated cables manufacture, etc.) These activities will represent 74 per cent of the industrial gross output and more than 50 per cent of these products will be exported (77 per cent
overseas and. 23 per cent to the sub-region). . . .
72. About 75 per cent'of the copper ore mined in Mauritania (15,000 of the 20,000 tons per year in 1975) will be processed in Mauritania and all of; the sub-regional demand for many kinds, of products will be satisfied from
Mauritania. Because of the danger of to.o rapid depletion, copper mining _ should normally not exceed the 20*000 tons per year and this small scale of operation may'not be attractive to the international copper companies.
73. Mauritania is the sub-region:s only likely source for gypsum (used in
cement manufacture) and can supply.the entire sub-regional demand.
■ \ *-
F./CN.14/INR/141 Page 18
74» Table 12 shows specific economic indicators for 1963 and 1975 ' relative to Mauritania.
75* I* is expected that Niger's economy will,1 assuming the necessary sub- ■ regional co-operation, grow at the; rate of 5*7 per cent per annum, i.e.,
about the sub-regional average* The country's industries will grow: at 21-6 per cent per annum - the highest rate in the aub^region. This'high rate is, in part, caused by the low starting point. The -benefits', tb'"Niger:will -.be'
important -a growth of per caput private consumption, of 4»0 per cent perannum resulting in $86 per .caput,in 1975-; This is only.slightly below ttfe
sub-regional .average in 1975 whereas, in 19<53» Niger shared the second lowest per caput consumption position with Guinea-' ," •76. Except for food industries, all other industries in Niger.iwill be heavily
dependent on the sub-regional market* Niger's major industry (about 35 per
cent of output) will be the textile and wearing apparel industry based on . locally produced cotton. This industry will export - almost only to thesub-region - 84 per cent of its output. . ; ■ *!
77. There will also be a modest., engineering industry which will export.one- third of ,its production to the sub-region. Other industries are more ' . domestically -oriented. ... ■ ... ■ - ■. -.:■'-- . ;'
78. Table 13 shows the specific, economic indicators for 1963 and 1975
relative to Niger.
Nigeria - ; -..
79. Nigeria's economy is planned to grow at a compound rate of 5.8 per cent per annum (exactly-, the sub-regional average) and its industry at I4.8 per
cent per annum, i.e.y slightly faster than-the sub-region as a whole. . . .
"■ '■ . ■.• \ '.-■'. _■ . . .
80. Since Nigeria is the largest country of the sub-region (about 60 per
cent of the sub-region's population in 1975K i* represents by itself a .
' ■ . E/CN.14/INR/141
Page 19
market and, therefore, would seem to be less dependent than the other coun tries on some form of 3ub-regional co-operation. However, even though ■. . ■ Nigeria may grow industrially without access to sub-regional markets it will growmuch faster,with this advantage. .Nigeria will account for about 25 per
cent of-the.total sub^-regional trade (both imports and exports), and will be the major purchaser (over 50 per ce: t) of all the manufactured goods traded
within the sub-region in 1975» '
81. Nigeria, of course, will have the most diversified and self-sufficient"
tw I industrial sector; nevertheless, its co-operation.with the sub-region is just as important for Nigeria as it is for the other countries. '
82. Food,- textile, chemical and engineering industries will .have the highest value-of output. Nonetheless, pazact.ically all other industries,, in relation to the size.of the domestic demand,.will be developed.. The.few.exceptions ..
are related to the non-availability of natural resources. r... , ... .... - ..,-:
83. 'Table 14' shows the specific economic indicators for 19'63 and 1975
relative to Nigeria. ' •
Senegal • '
84* Senegal should be regarded as a relatively more industrialized country than any other in the sub-region. In'the early 'sixties, the country ex
perienced a period of slow development (3*0 per cent per annum)., but is.no ,;
reason to expect that this must continue into the future.
'*' ' _ ...-.:.,.. -.:'.-■.. ■ ■ .;;.■:■ ■■'■'■ - ■' ■*• ■ : 85. The proposals suggested by the itudy- result »in a :?ate of growth of' 4»7...
per cent per annum whereas the industrial sector will grow at 12-4 per cent.
per annum. These preliminary figures appear to be too conservative and ._._,.
further refinement of the development plan should allow an improvement. ,.
, More projects or faster or earlier development of the projects already sug-r-...
gested will help Senegal's economic situation, Senegal, for instance.(among
others), may be able to accommodate more engineering industries of more
sophisticated type than what .has :so far been projected. ./Senegal.has already
Page\2Q:-^ , ■:. ,
accumulated relatively more experience and skill in the field of- industry,
rand further study should determine ways the Senegalese can take advantage of
this. -■ ■■ ' • '""■'.' - .
86. Most,.of the industries, already proposed and, to an:even- greater degree, .the possible industries, will -."be dependent on the accessibility of the
sub-regional, market,. ■ ...
87. Table 15 shows the specific economic indicators for 1963-and 1975
relative to Senegal. . . ~ . ■ ■
Sierra Leone ■ - ; ■ .
88. Sierra Leone belongs to the group of countries with the fastest growth
■ rates in the sub-region. An annual rate of growth of 6.9 per cent is expected, Since the mining industry'has already achieved a fairly high output and is not expected to grow very much because of the limitations of deposits/the industrial growth rate'is not as high as in other countries. Manufacturing industries will result in a 13 per cent growth rate for industry -excluding
mining.
89. Except for mining, which exports almost the whole of its production to
overseas markets, the remaining industries (-excluding food industries) will export 35 per cent of their output almost entirely to the sub-region. As in other countries, several industries, including engineering and iron and steel industries," will rely heavily on sub-regional markets."
■ • ■ • \ . * ■
90. Table 16 shows the specific economic indicators for 1963 and 1975
relative to sierra Leone. v " " '
91. The Togolese economy is expected to grow little faster than that of the
;sub-region as' a whole - namely, at 5.9 per cent per annum. Its industrie's are projected to grow at 15.7 per cent per annum.
92- Phosphates mining, phosphorous fertilizers manufacture, textile and
clothing industries besides food industries should be regarded as the
E/CN.14/1NR/141
■ ' . * . Page 21
mainstays, of.^industrial! -actiVitiea. Al^o*-them,. except, for food, will rely- heavily on exports to the sub^region as well as outside of it.
93. The manufacture of phosphorous fertilizers (shared with Senegal and Mali)
is now proposed. After further study it :may.become feasible to take advantage of.the economies, of transport which may be achieved by exporting instead of crude phosphate the triple-superphosphate. ■""-.•
94. Table 17 shows the specific economic indicators for 1963 and 1975
relative ;to Togo..-: ■'.,•■
Upper Volta . '...,-.•
95.. Upper Volta was, in the early 'sixties, the poorest country of the sub- region. It is land-looked,, poorly endowed by nature, already densely popula ted and has a high rate of population growth. Thanks to relatively important forexgn aid, Upper Volta managed to aohieve a rate of growth between 4 and 5 per.cent per annum in the early 'sixties. This growth has improved the
economic circumstances for the population (private per caput consumption grew at about 1.4 per cent per annum), but this foreign aid has been used not only for capital expenditure - it has also been used for current consumption, which
is not encouraging for future growth. .
96. Although efforts have been made in this development to allocate as much '
industry as feasible in Upper Volta, no satisfactory results have yet been achxeved. The overall rate of growth is. 6.2 per cent per annum, the indus trial growth is 17.3 per cent per annum and the private consumption increases 3.7 .per cent per caput per year. Despite these high rates, per caput con sumption remains the lowest in the sub-region - £62 per caput by 1975 - and foreign aid will still be required, not only for investment but also for current expenditure. No net domestic'savings oa» be expected, even in 1975.
97. The above results derive from the preliminary analysis and it may be
feasible to locate additional industrial capacity in Upper Volta after further
study; nevertheless, it will.undoubtedly take more than 10-l5 years before
'E/CN.14/INR/141
Page 22 .
Upper Volta can "become independent'of 'relatively massive grants of foreign, aid. Such foreign assistance is the only way to provide for the exception ally fast development necessary toAlleviate the very low per .caput income.
' 98.. Among, industries now proposed, for Upper Volta are the following: %
(a) Mining of manganese ores (overseas export oriented)',
(b): Textile;, and, clothing industries (58; per ;cenj: of. ;;outpu^; exported
to the sub- region). . . ., , . ■ -:
(c) Food industries '(20 per cent exported to the"sub-region). -
99. Table 18 Bhowe the specific indicators for 1963 and .1975 relative to"
'* Upper Volta-". ' .... : , .':■
r %•
Page 23
IV. INDUSTRY ANALYSES
lOOv This'section contains a brief description of the major industries pro
jected for West Africa in 1975.• Separate tables in the Annex (Tables 19-45) provide specific facts about each industry for the sub-region in 1963 and
1975. ■ - - - . _ ■ ■ ■. ■ - ;
101• Prices used in these tables have, been kept at constant i960 levels; how ever, salaries have been projected to increase in relation to the expected rise in consumer income. Although at present the salary levels show.wide dispersion in the sub-region it is expected that the application of consistent
policies in this respect will result in'some equalization of them by 1970-1975
Present, levels' of salaries in. some countries are not justified by labourproductivity. Lack of proper relationship between salaries and productivity may seriously endanger the future industrial.development in some -countries.
102. It-is reasonably obvious which industries will-require sub-regional, economic co-operation and which industries could prosper without such co operation; each industry description covers this point. It is much more
difficult '- "not yet having the results of the econometric, computer analysis
which will be done - to estimate how rapidly the economy of West Africa . . . would grow with and without such co-operation. ■ •• '103. As mentioned earlier, more than 50 P®** cent of the.non-food.gross out put of West Africa will cross national boundaries. .A first quantitative approximation of the benefits of sub-regional economic co-operation is
shown overleaf. ■ - , • . "
/
Page 24
Tndex of Gross Output in 197'
Type of Industry . '
Export .oriented . ■ Sub-regionally oriented National market oriented
1 . - Totals' f
Assuming Co-operation
.23
100
U..2#-
Assuming No ■ Co-operation
20
36
Rate'of growth" of all industries, per year ■. ■ Rate of growth excluding export oriented
... industries, per year , *4/v
gxtractive Industries (E/CN.14/INR/128,-,E/CN.14/Dm/l37,. E/CN.U/lNR/l38). :,.
104. The extractive industries are the .secpnd most important foreign exchange-
earning industries of the sub-region.^ But in view of the rapid industrial
development1 expected;- the quarrying activities oriented toward national . ;.
markets should not be^ overlooked. ; . ' '■ ' '.
105.; The achievement,, as.far as possible, sof two goals in this field is important from the point of view of African economics:
(a) ■ a share in the world market supply proportional to the
available reserves;
(b) the highest possible degree of transformation - or at least up-,.
*' grading - of minerals. ■ * ' ■ ' ■■ ■ ' "
106. The possibilities have been analyzed and the prospects for development in general are bright Nevertheless, the development of■ some important mineral resources will not be easy, because of variations in reliability in
1/ The only more "important activity in this respect is the export of
agricultural crops (cocoa, coffee, 'rubber and oilseeds).
Page 25
extraction industries in different parts of the world,/e.g., bauxite - at present all available capital tends to go to Australia where bauxite extrac tion off ers better returns than in West Africa.. A consolidated sub-regional financial effort may be necessary if more sub stantial developments are to be
i
achieved. ■ .
107. There is one exception in this field-, namely the development of Mauritania.'s copper resources. The. rather limited resources enable only modest and - when compared with Zambian or Chilean conditions - much less attractive possibilities for foreign investment. The major, part of "this copper (more than 50 per cent by 1975) can and should be consumed by the sub- region; the rest will always find an outlet on the. international market.
Therefore, if this venture is not started soon by any foreign investor, it
should be done by a sub-regionally owned company.
■IO8. In any discussion of mining it is necessary to stress the importance of further geological prospecting even in respect of minerals which are not very
spectacular but which are sorely needed for sub-regional industries, such as sulphur (pyrites), limestone, quartz-sand, concrete sand and gravels, etc.
109. Some important new activities are the- ilmenite mining in Ivory Coast (including a proposed TiO2 factory of 25,000 "tons per annum output) and gypsum extracting in Mauritania which will supply all cement factories of the sub-region, (See Table 19)• '
Food Processing Industries (E/CN.14/INH/122, Add.l and Add.2)
110. The food processing industries are particularly important-in a devel oping economy because they serve the dual role of freeing the family from lengthy preparations for meals' and improving the diet. They are also import ant users of local products, labour skills, finances and management. These industries, usually-do not require large investments for individual plants',
and seldom demand more than local markets.£&*,>■■, ■<...-...
f^^v^^m^^^^^W^^^^W^W^^y^^i
E/CN.14/IHR/141
Page 26111. The total requirements for new capacity in these industries, however, is quite large and, as 'a consequence more than £1,000 million must be invested
in these industries during the next 15 years, and most of this investment . . will have to be local. Thus, these industries will benefit from efficient organization and development of investment and financing services in the area.
The'local mill which can make cash advances against growing crops will work wonders in agricultural development. While these financial services can
develop!entirely within national boundaries, they will undoubtedly develop
more'quickly and aggressively if the monetary and fiscal policies of WestAfrica-allow them to operate on a multinational basis..(See' Table'20).■
Sugar and Confectionery (E/CN.14/INR/135) -
1X2. ' Sugarcane can be cultivated under very favourable conditions in
nearly all the countries of the sub-region. Moreover, the sugar industry canbe ^decentralized into units small enough for the production to be absorbed by
national or even local markets.
113. The demand for sugar has risen rapidly over the last few years. This
trend will accelerate, still further with the increase in personal incomes throughout the sub-region and the movement of new groups into the monetarysector. •
114. Under these circumstances,the sugar industry is assured of a brilliant future in all the countries where cane can be cultivated. Since the minimum economic capacity for a productive unit is already exceeded.by the value of consumption in all the countries of the sub-region', the volume of'trade
within'the sub-regional framework will be small, or zero (with the exception of exports to Liberia, the only non-producer).
115. Consequently, the sugar industry can be expected to-develop independently of the existence of economic 'co-operation among the states of West. Africa.
However, such co-operation' would certainly promote the development: or creation of larger productive units in the most favourable areas, thereby making
possible significant economies of scale. (See Table 21.)
E/CN.14/INR/141
Page'27
Tobacco (E/CN.I4/INR/II4 *
116. Africa currently produces 12 per cent/ of the world's tobacco and sup plies 15 per. cent of world exports. Most of the countries' in West Africa grow tobacco, and it is particularly important in* Ivory Coast, Ghana, Dahomey and Guinea. The yield in some West African countries suggests the need for larger investment in fertilizers and improved farming procedures.
117'- Manufacture of tobacco products :has traditionally been limited to only a few countries and there is considerable sub-regional trade in these com- moditj.es. By 1975; production of tobacco and,tobacco products is expected to increase three-fold and sub-regional trade to increase five-fold.-
Investment requirements are relatively modest and most of the countries should be able to manufacture some tobacco products. Because of the high value-to-weight ratio, however, this is an easily exported product and
consumer preferences will continue to encourage a. wide variety of supply(from several countries rather than just the local product). (See Table 22,) Textiles and Clo.thing. (E/CN.I4/INR/129). '. -( '
118. The textiles industry is one of the largest industries in West Africa.
It accounts for more employment than any industry except mining, food pro- - cessing and engineering products. Despite its large size, the West African textiles industry supplies only 13 per cent of the total demand, and much of its;putput (about 30 per cent) was from the traditional hand-weaving home
industry. ■ ' •
119. West Africa currently produces more than 70t000 tons of cotton fibre and exports most-of it. There is no significant technical obstacle to a very . rapid increase In the textile producing capacity, building upon existing skills, available raw materials and a very large existing demand, now being satisfied mostly by imported products. More than 50 per cent of the present foreign exchange costs could be saved if'all the textiles heeded could-be,
produced within the sub-region. ' . . ' " ■
/
Page 20
120. The development programme presented "by the secretariat proposes a very,
rapid-buildup,of. textile capacity so that by 1975t domestic supply will
satisfy.84 per cent of domestic consumption. . ■ : ■ , ■
121. The need for sub-regional co-operation in this-industry'is imperative', because-it procVaceV several thousands of different end-products. The-Indian
■ ■■ - . -it..- ■- ■ ... ■ i_ .
textile industry", ;for example j produces over 60,000 varieties of ■cloth.. • Sub- regional trade, is.essential if consumers are'to have any reasonable;..choice r
122:.'; Also; ■i.ke'binimum economical, size for 'basic' textiles'plants'is such that
only a few' countries could support them. Specialty and finishing plants may be quite small, but production of'cloth from yarn requires large efficient" • factories. (See Tables 23 and 24-), , ...
Shoe-and-Leat^r--'(E/CN.14/lNR/l4O . ■ ■:- ■...■.. ,. ... .
123- The domestic shoe industry in West Africa now supplies about 60 per cent of the total demand whereas just five years ago European, impprts-.supplied 80 per.cent of the requirements. Thus, this is a growing industry and should continue to Vow as the incomes riee and more West Africans enter the monetary sector.of the economy. The' sub-region produces large quantities of hides and slcins (for-export),'but generally the tanning process (as well as the animals themselves) does not produce the better qualities of leather. For this
reason Uost Africa will probably continue to import "high^style"' andhigh quality shoes arid leather products, even when exporting leather. Much of the shoe production, pro jected for the. sub-region is.-rubber, textile or plastic'shoes, which, with their'low cost, will finda.ready market. .. ..
124. Shoe plants' can be relatively-efficient even at small sizes - about 600,0Q0 pairs of snoes per year - but if they produce a complete selection of" styles they must be larger. Most of ther plants projected for the suV , region are large enough' to produce" several styles efficiently. But in the . early years, when' the total demand is relatively low,- ■ individual plants ■"
would be much.more economical to start if they could specialize on a few
->■
E/CN.14/INR/141
A Page 29
styles and export to a few neighbouring countries. The tanning industry re quires more concentration and larger investment than the shoe industry, particularly if the quality of the finished leather is to be improved.' Tanning plants should be located in the animal-producing areas and thus the tanning industry is one of the few industries which should naturally be located in the areas of the sub-region which have lesc advantages in attract ing other industry. The great bulk of tanned products will have to be ex- ■
ported to other countries in the sub-region. (See Table 25.)
Wood Manufacturing,.including Furniture and Fixtures' .(E/CN.14/INR/1O8,
' " . . ' . E/CN.14/INR/12O)
125- Although for many years' in the past timber was- the traditional export item for countries like Ghana and Nigeria, the prospects for this industry are not so bright and give ris-e to serious questions. During colonial times, exploitation of forest resources was not related either to economy or to. . . considerations of future needs. Consequently, Ghana and Nigeria's forest resources have been seriously depleted; considerable tiro© and investment will be .necessary to rebuild them.and restore a balanced position. Ivory Coast and other .smaller producers are in a relatively better position and in these countries wise forest exploitation can be expanded. ■
126. In projecting this industry into the future, the following objectives
have been kept in mind:(a) Preservation and continuous recuperation of resources; ' (b) Reduction of exports of unworked timber.
(c) Achievement of the highest possible degree of transformation.
(d) Substitution (wherever, possible) o-f the domestic use of valuable
local timber species by. inexpensive imported qualities which are
■ . often more suitable for local purposes.
127* The development programme concentrates on the expansion of modern saw- milling, especially the veneer and plywood-industry: the manufacture of
particle-, fibre-- and other board; and the most profitable industry - the '
manufacture and. export of furniture-(unassembled) which will have the,highest
total value added component. » - .lr -\\ ■ ■ .-..•■•■ . v •.■ .■"/::■■-■ ;128. Thus, these industries will.be subject to very important transformation,.
modernization and extension processes. (See Tables 26 and.;2?.).
',■■"■ • '■.■."■ . ' , ■ ■ '
- * Paper and "Paper Manufacture (e/CN.14/INR/1O8) ' * ' ' \" ' ' ■. '' '
■ ■ . .-■' < • \ '...,■. ■■.'.,
129. Serious shortage of necessary pulpabl'e raw materials within the sub- . region vJilL :be id'major hindrance to the development of-thW-paper'industry;"'
It will take time to overcome this problem by developing techniques which
allow substitution1of local materials (bagasse or other pulpable materials yet to be"discovered and developed) for imported pulp.
130. The possibilities of manufacturing pulp and paper in the sub-region
have been analyzed exhaustively in the document referred to above. Some projects, already in'existence or under consideration on a national basis, have . been criticized!in the document; For the benefit of the sub-region and the ] individual .countries concerned,, these projects should be'reconsidered - and perhaps revised - along the lines suggested in the document. New proposals have been made, based on a sub-regional framework, which,would change many aspects of the projects under consideration and allow more optimistic ex pectations regarding their rentability and competitiveness. ■ ,.
131- While the forest industries document thoroughly covers"the pulp and paper manufacturing possibilities, much less has been said about paper con
version^ The possibilities'in this'field are almost unlimited (except, of
course/ by* the "demand:) • ' In the context of co-ordinated proposals for a sub-
regional paper conversion industry (with plants'in'almost'all countries), it
is expected that, by I98O, this industry'will have an output p£ about &83
million and satisfy almost 87 per cent of the sub-regional demand.
x E/CN.14/INR/141
Page 31
132. It should be pointed out that this industry is highly dependent on the sub^regional market-. More than; 3O.per cent of its output" is traded, .mainly to neighbouring countries.. This is explained by the high degree, of mechaniza
tion of production (only then can it be rentable) and high productivity of individual units (machines). (See Table 28.) .
Printing and Publishing , ,
133. The-printing and publishing industry-presents, as far,as West Africa is concerned, the following characteristi.es and advantages:
. (a) It uses paper as essential raw material, which this sub-region will produce in ample quantity by 1975;
(b) A rapid'rise in the literacy rate is observable'among the peoples ._
of the sub-region. This percentage' may be expected to double or even triple in the majority of countries of the sub-region, and it ' may be safely predicted, bearing in mind the increase in the young- '. est age groups, that the literate population will quadruple at ;
least in absolute numbers in ten or fifteen years. The consumption
">■ " ■■' of products' of the printing and publishing industry will rise pro- ■
:; ' portioriately. " ■ ' . , .
134. Only two languages dominate.the sub-region -French and Englisho ■ This will permit trade in printed materials and, hence, both an increase in press runs beyond the immediate needs of each individual country and the possibil
ity of specialization.
-I35. Printing and publishing call in general for installations of modest size, which makes it possible to distribute'them harmoniously among the countries, of the sub-region in accordance with local requirements and the possibilities for wider distribution. Moreover, printed materials are relatively high in"
price relative to their weight, - and.printing plants consume little energy, so that location is not dictated by transport considerations or the location of energy sources. Disequilibrium in the balance of trade among the coun tries, of the sub-region may perhaps be reduced by encouraging the location of these plants in countries with fewer other prospects'for industrialization.
Page 32 ■■■*'- :* .
136. While productive units of greater or less tiignificance are presently
found in several countries of the sub-region, trade in-printed materials is practically nonexistent.. Considerable economies of scale therefore may be expectedj. especially in the area of' teaching materials. .(See Table 29.) Natural.Rubber (E/CN o14/lNR/l31 •
137. Production of natural rubber in the sub-region is of major importance at
present and will increase considerably as a result of planting programmeB now underway'and projected* Much of this production must continue' to'"be. exported-
since local consumption will absorb only about 25 per cent of projected
supplies* ■ . ' .•.!■'.•■*■ ji ■.•••.-.■
138. The. demand for manufactures of rubber, of which 80 per cent consists of tires and tubes, ..will increase in parallel with population growth and economic development of tho sub-region. (See Table 300 . -
Chemical Industries (e/CNb1/j/INR/109, E/C
~ "'. . " e/cn.14/inr/i39» e/c ,
139. These industries, the development of xtfhich is detailed-in the four docu ments referred to above, should be divided-into five separate groups: -'
(a) Petroleum Products Industries (ISIC 32) (b) Basic "ChensioalD Xnduetri-oT-(XSIC 2>~l) (c) Vegetable and- Animal Fats Indusbrios (ISIC
• (d) Painto, Vai-nishes, ^tq. (ISIC 3--3) (c) Miscc7«.lansou3 Chemioalcj (IEIC 319)'
The petroleum products industry is inherently related to the others and par-, ticularly tc the second, providing t-:.: important part o* the basic raw
materials. Thanks to the availability of oil in Nigeria this industry is-
1/ Formerly belonging to two ISIC groups ~ 30 and'31.
' 2/ Described in the food processing industries report (E/CN.14/lNR/l22,
•—' . .'■..- , ^ . ...
Add.l and.Add.2). . . ■ _
Gt .■
