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(1)

(5 s 1/1 JIlCAIXCBD/88/J.2

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE

.

. ON THE

HUMAN DIMENSION

:t'

OF AFRICA'S . ECONOMIC. RECOVERY, AND DEVELOPME~T

, ~I ·

JIUIIIUII . tlORCBS D1 '1'BB GBJIBI!M. SDADG'f PaR BCXlIIOKJ:C AND SOCUL DBI1BI.oPJIBNT

by

~tryof ~nanDin9aDd Co-operation

D8kar,

lleDegal

. .

UNITED NATIONS

lQ1artowa, Sudan

f,

5-8 March 1988

(2)

ECA/ICHD/88/12

International Conference on

"The Human Dimension of Africa's Economic Recovery and Development"

Khartoum, Sudan 5-8 March 1988

HUMAN RESOURCES IN THE GENERAL STRATEGY FOR ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

by

Ministry of Planning and co-operation Dakar, Senegal

UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA, ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA

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ECA/ICHD/88/l2

A. INTRODUCTION

(a) llvol.ll.tionar.x., .frend! }.n .f,l!s.. S:neplese. economy over the laft ..

2~

Xl'ars

1. Since independence the Senegalese economy has had a number of structural constraints that have made

i t

particularly vulnerable to climatic changes and changes in commodity prices on the world market. In spite of the efforts made since independence to promote development, the situation has persistently deteriorated.

2. During the last 25 years, an exceptional drought coupled with a sudden increase in population and weak economic growth has caused stagnation ill reai ',incomes, particularly ehcse of the rural population which is estimat;ed to be 70 per cent of the total population.

3. Development activities based on external financing and earnings from groundnuts and minerals failed to promote any structural changes in the economy and lay the foundations for sustained and sound economic growth.

4. The share of the final consumption in the gross domestic product (GDP) remained sufficiently high (92.6 per cent) between 1977 and 1980. The consumption trend (2 per cent a year) was slightly below the GDP (2.2 per cent).

5. There was

a

permanent trade balance deficit.

6. Domestic savings were never adequate to finance. domestic formation. The rate of domestic savings was 6.9 per cent on the over the period 1959-1972 and 10.8 per cent between 1972 and 1980.

capital average

7. Senegal's growing dependence on external aid to finance its capital expenditure and meet part of its cash requirements had, during the period 1973-1983, meant in practice a steady increase in its outstanding debt which.

rose from CFAF 45.7 billion to CFAF 393 billion or from 16.4 to 46.5 per cent of the GDP in 1982. There has been a further increase in the outstanding debt in recent years as it rose to 74.9 per cent of the GDP in 1984.

l.n. .!>illj,on.JL9J.. CF/I. francs

1982 1983 1984

OutstandingdEibt GDP

%

392.8 844.1 46.5

563.3 943.6 58.9

760.2 1015.6 74.9

~g9rcel

Seventh Economic and Social Development Plan (1985-1989).

8. The interest payments on this debt also followed an upward trend, rising

from CFAF 50 billion in 1982 to CFAF 101 billion in 1985. The public revenue

was inadequate to meet such interest payments.

(4)

ECA/ICHD/88/l2 Page 2

pempgraphic,".,,~pn8traint~

9. The Senegalese population 'has steadily increased since 1'960, the year in which the country became a sovereign State, rising from 3,497,000 in 1960 to 6,478.000 in 1985. The natural growth rate which was roughly 2.3 per cent a year has risen to 2.9 per cent since, 1982; the population has thj!refore doubled in 24 years.. Thus, Senegal ranks among African countries wi,th ,the. highest population growth rates. The rapid increase in the Senegalese population has resulted from a marked decrease in mortality coupled with high and fairly constant fertility.

10. Indeed with improvement in medical care, social conditions and public health measures, the crude mortality rate which was 25 per 1,000 in 1960- 1961 has now dropped to 19 per 1,000. This trend will certainly continue in spite of the deteriorating economic conditions which are mainly a result of the drought, because the seventh Economic and Social Development Plan is part of a strategy to improve the economic conditions of the people.

11. While mortality on the whole has decreased, fertility has been and continues to be very high as a result of traditional beliefs in favour of lllrge families. The results of the 1978 Senegalese Fertility Survey showed a crud" birth rate of 18 per 1,000 and. completed fertility of .7.16 children per woman. These figures were attributable to.

(a) Thc intensive and early marriages among the female population;

(b) A young age structure;

(c) The low percentage of women practising effective contraception;, and

(d) A high rate of infant and child mortality, particularly in the rural areas.

The survey also showed that urbanization had fertility and that there was nothing to suggest in fertility in the next 30 ycars.

practically no effect on that there would be a drop

l2~ On the basis of this more or less constant trend in the total fertility rate observed in thc past; it can be argued that the attitude of the Senegalesc womcn towards giving birth will remain unchanged for a long time to come. Senegalese women still want to have more children (nine on the average).

13. With regard to migrations, variations over time in the characteristics and structure of the Senegalese economic and social arce have created long- standing movements of people both within and outside the country, in particular considerable movements from the rural to the urban areas especially from the heavily populated rural areas where intensive land use has impoverished the soil to the other less heavily populated rural areas where the soil 1s still fresh.

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ECA/ICHD/88/12 Page 3

14. However, it is the drift into the urban areas that. mainly accounts for the poor distribution of the population throughout the country. The population is concentrated around the western part of the country while the eastern part remains ,sparsely populated.

15. Finally, regardfng the age structure of the population, all the existing data show that a considerable proportion of the population is young.

over. 50 per cep.t of .Senegal's population is under 20 years of age. Such a structure considerably influences dependency trends. The ratio of dependents below the age of 15 in the 15-64 year age group was more than 80. children to 100 adults in 1976.

16.. It population infant and ,grOlo/th of

aksc ' from linked to gives rise

is clear from the situation and movement of the Senegalese that the main population problems in country stem not only from child mortality, high fertility and a rapid increase in the natural the population hence the considerable number of dependents, but the poor distribution of the population throughout the country, the imbalance in the Senegalese economic and social fabric which

to rapid urbanization fuelled by a continuing rural-urban ·drift.

17. These population problems have cropped up within an unfavourable international environment characterized by a crisis which affects mainly non-petroleum producing developing countries like Senegal but also the Sudano- Sahelian zone with several years of drought, the consequences of which have been incalculable.

18. In such an unfavourable context, a rapid increase in and poor distribution of population can only adversely affect any efforts to raise the level of education, health services, agricultural output, employment, housing, etc.

B. REVIEW AND APPRAISAL OF ACHIEVEMENTS IN THE HEALTH, HOUSING, TRAINING AND EMPLOYMENT SECTORS OVER THE PAST DECADE (a) Ihe health s;.ctor

19., Each year the Government of Senegal allocates 6 per cent of its national budget to the health sector. Although this proportion is far below ,the 9 per cent set by the World Health Organization (WHO). the Government has made considerable efforts to increase the health coverage of the country at the regional and district levels.

20. Such efforts may, however, prove fruitless unless sufficient funds are allocated to meet the ever-increasing costs of maintenance and operation and to cater for the population that increases at an estimated rate of 2.9 per cent a year.

21. In spite of the achievements in the heat tb': sector. Senegal faces a mortality rate estimated at 19 per 1,000, which is still quite high and conceals regional disparities. Life expectancy in Senegal is 48 which is far below the estimated figure of 73 years in the industrialized countries.

(6)

ECA/ICHD/88/l2 Page 4

(i) ~rowth

01

the health ~ector

1. Ipf~petructure~

22. Rural maternity hospitals and rural health units, which feature prominently among the health infrastructures, increased from 74 in 1976 to 449 in 1982.

23. There are an estimated 531 health clinics which play a significant role in the rural areas.

24. The health centres, intermediate structures between the health units and the hospitals, have a major role to play in the new primary health care policy. They have been established in each region and function as hospitals in the districts.

25. The Maternity and Child Welfare Centres prevfde the antenatal and .post-natal care for mothers; 35 per cent or 23 of the 65 centres are at

Da~ar, thus, their activities in the rural areas are quite limited.

26. The number of hospitals has steadily increased from 11 in 1977 to 16 in 1984.

27. Finally, centres dealing with nine major diseases, twelve leper hospitals, one social health institute and three psychiatric villages complete

the range of medical infrastructures.

28. The number of persons employed by the health sector is estimated to be 5527, of which 3,393 or 61.4 per cent are medical and para-medical staff and about 2,134 or 38.6 per cent administrative and technical staff.

Senegal does not have enough qualified staff to cater for the needs of the population.

29. The number of doctors has increased considerably since 1978; for the country as a whole the number of doctors in the public sector rose from 217 to 237. The number of pharmacists in the public sector increased from 19 to 38. The number of dental surgeons in the public sector is insufficient.

it has risen from 13 to 27 since 1978. There were 1,739 public nurses in 1982. There are approximately 400 midwives, the bu Lk of which are in the Dakar region.

30. The population's financial participation in primary health care

remain~ excessive and was estimated at CFAF 300 million in 1983. Other areas of participation such as prevention through health education, environmental hygiene, sanitation and malnutrition, do not seem to be well understood by the population hence the need for a major sensitization effort.

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ECA!ICHD/88/l2 Page 5

31. Sixty per cent of the operating budget is spent on staff while only 30 per cent is spent on equipment"

32. The share of

t

he rugul ar budget allocated to the health sector has steadily decreased from 9 per cent of the national budget in 1971-1972 to 5.8 per cent in 1981-1982. Roughly half of this budgetary allocation is devoted to hospital services. Thus the minimum standard recommended by

WHO

(9 per cent of the national budget) has not been attained.

33. Data on infrastructure, staff and budget of the health sector reflect the actual efforts undertaken by the Government towards health promotion.

34. However, several major problems have been hindering the development of the sector; they include:

(a)

Regional disparities in access to health services: The regional and district populations do not have sufficient access to health services and this creates congestion at the urban health centres;

(b) PrOblems peculiar to the primary health care policy. community.

participation is a major component of the primary health care policy.

Currently it is confined solely to financial participation which leads, to a number of problems, such as the embezzlement of funds and the politicization of health committees. There are fears that the lack of motivation on' the part of members of the health committees and the desertion of community health workers may threaten the

su~,ival

0f th" basic health units;

(c) Shortage of medical personnel: It has been realized that there are serious manpower shortages in the health units, rural maternity hospitals and

~ral

health clinics;

(d) Shortage of drugs, equipment and kits: The operating budget for the various areas is not sufficient to meet actual needs, in spite of the Government's emergency plans and the participation of the population; This situation has resulted in,

(i) The shortage of vaccines and drugs resulting in the inability of the recipient population to bear the full cost of the health

services;

(11) The inadequate control of drug distribution in hospitals and health centres;

(e) The deterioration of equipment and infrastructure which stems mainly from:

(i) Lack of maintenance and repairs;

(ii) Decline in the value of the operating budget in real terms;

(8)

ECA/leHD/88/12 Page 6

35. According to the seventh Economic and Social Development Plan (1985- 1989), the general policy guidelines for the health sector are based on:

(a) An endeavour to ensur e that all ~ellegalese have access to health services;

(b) The provision of basic facilities for preventive, 'rural and general medicine;

(c) Participation of the population in health activities;

36. ,The objectiVes pursued by the sector relate to the following:

(a) A dynamic sanitary control policy :aimed at coverage for the population, particularly the constitutes a high-risk group;

(b) Promotion of a primary health care policy;

the provision of vaccine infant population which

(c) Intensification of vocational training increase in the number of medical and para-medical

(d) Promotion o£ resear=h in the health sector.

(b) Th~ housins s~~

for health staff; and

personnel and

37. The housing sector has grown since 1951, the year in which was established SICAP, a real estate company which had as its main objective, inter ~, to finance housing programmes alongside the OHLM, the Q.ffice

~.'l

..

habitations

L

lO.$!~:r JIlpdJll:J\. (the low-cost housing agency) established in 1961 with et",ilar :bjer~i"es, Thus, since 1961, both companies have had to their credit a large number of new establishments. The OHLM has produced 9,000 housing units whereas SICAP has had to its credit 11,500 houses.

38. In view of the financing conditions and the facilities granted by the State, the housing units built were clearly of a welfare character.

Indeed, the Caisse centrale de cooperat Lon l\conomique (CCCE) granted loans at 2.5 pe r cent interest rates for programmes to construct rental units and 5 per cent interest rates for rent-purchase programmes. Repayments were in general spread over 10 to 20 years. The State, for its part, subsidized the highways and other road networks.

39. However, with effect from 1973, the year in which the CCCE suddenly stopped its financing, public promoters tried to pursue their action by recovering their own resources and resorting to the usual bank financing.

This led to high inflation in buf.LdLng costs and the resultant heavy financial burden put the completed programmes well beyond the reach of the average Senegalese.

(9)

ECA/ICHD!88!12 Page 7

40. The supply and demand deficit quickly begun to widen fuelling variouB kindB of Bpeculation. Currently, there are an estimated 35,000 unmet demands recorded by SICAP, OHLM and the Senegalese Bank for HouBing.

41. It is worth adding that the Government has a Lso tried to reach the low-income groupB by launching in 1972 the "improved plotB" programmes with World Bank Bupport. The scheme was aimed at providing the pooreBt people with land on which to construct; their own houses in the light of their resources , However, the scheme did not reach the target groups , Moreover, in the absence of any effective system to help individuals build their own houses, few of the plots were taken,

42" III the face of all these problems, the Government reached a new stage with the adoption in 1979 of a policy made up of three components:

(a) .Es·tablishment of an agency specializing in housing finance. The Senegalese Bank for Housing (BHS);

(b) Continuation of Government OHLM, while seeking to make them OHLM and .the SICAP recovery. plan);

housi~g activities through SICAP and more competitive ("cClntrat-p!lons" with

(c) Involving Senegalese businesBmen in the low-cost housing subsector.

The policy made it possible for the project to get off the ground again in 1980 and during the initial phase of the sixth plan (1981-1985), over CFAF 11 billion were set aside for the construction of 4,000 houBing units.

43. However, various kinds of problems continued to arise. So far houses are accessible, at best, to 10 per cent of the population. In addition, the purely subBectoral approach failed to resolve the major problem of harmonizing the policies of intervention and specifying the terms of reference of the various .agencLes involved in both the implementation of the housing.

programmes and the management of the urban sector as a whole. All rhese had several negative consequences.

(11) !,!.ospect,§ ,9f, the housing ,sect,£!.

44. The latest gUidelines of the sector a~ defined by the seventh Economic and Social Development Plan, form part of a policy which endeavourB to prOVide hous Lng for the greateBt number of people. In thiB connection, the State will aeek to increaBe the efficiency of planned hous Lng . unit inputB Bince their COStB affect the final COBtB of the houae s , I t Ls in this context that the contract schemes.with OHLMand SICAP are to be finalized.

45. Moreover, unde r . the "technical aas Latance for urban rehabilitation and management scheme!' (housing policy), studies are being conducted to assess the nature of housing demand, to improve the Bystem of houBing finance and to define housing standards BO as to maintain access to housing programmes. The various studies will help to improve the housing policy and enhance its efficiency.

(10)

ECA!ICllD/88/12 Page 8

46. The State will also continue owners. Efforts to involve private subsector will also be continued.

to encourage people to become house promoters in the 10w·cost housing

47. Finally, research will be encouraged on satisfactory building standards and designing materials for use on 10w·cost housing so as to construction costs.

efforts aimed at non-conventional check the upward

defining building trend in

(c) Ih~ tr~~ning.~ector: Q1assica1 or Fonve~iona1 education

48. Over the past decade, education in Senegal has been characterized by:

(a) An endeavour to increase student intake in order to meet the ever- growing demand and to train competent staff capable of stimulating growth in the sector;

(b) The need to adapt the entire system of education to the socio·cu1tura1 realities of the country, which led to the carrying out of two educational reforms the most recent of them begun with a meeting of the key decision makers in education in 1981 and suggested a comprehensive reform of the educational system.

49. Pre-school education which was first limited to a few private nursery schools at Dakar, later became widespread in the urban areas. During the sixth plan (1981-1985), intake into pre-school educational institutions increased by 23 per cent a year.

50. Specialized education involves:

(a) The integrated education of visually handicapped youths; and (b) The re-education of deaf or partially deaf children.

b. Primarv ",ducaU.2!J

51. Intake into the public primary educational institutions has grown by an average of 6 per cent a year since independence, rising from 129,000 in 1960 to 534,000 in 1983/1984. There was a slight increase in female attendance at school. The rate of attendance rose from 24.7 per cent in 1977 to 29.6 per cent in 1980/1981.

52. . In addition, the relative importance of private institutions was on a downward trend, their number decreasing from 11.8 per cent of the total in 1980 to 9.4 per cent in 1984. The actual rate of school attendance in 1984 was 39.6 per cent for children between 6 and 11 years of age.

(11)

ECA!ICHD/88/l2 Page 9

c. Midd~e school trainin~

53. Middle school training corresponds to the first cycle of secondary education (first four years of secondary education). From 1961 to 1980, student intake roae from 9,800 to 65,800, increasing by 10.9 per cent a year.

54. The practical middle schools established under the Educational Reform Act of 1971 were to admit young people who coukd not gain admission to secondary schools. The purpose was to -help to harmoniously integrate' this group of young people into their environment. However, the practical middle schools have not achieved the - desired goals s Lnce their intake is, only 4 per cent of the target population.

d. .l'.ecol\djlry andd technical ,!'.!!yrcl'tio'!.

55. During the early years of'independence, technical education was not very popular. Intake of students into secondary/technical schools was estimated at' 130 in 1960/1961. However, following the emphasis put by the State-on the development of this type of- education, student intake in general secondary/technical schools between 1960 and 1981 rose from 1,300 to 16,900, Le., by 14.5 per cent each year. During the past four years (1981-1985), the intake grew from 20,900 to 24,000. '

56. However, 80 per cent of the total number of students continues to attend general secondary schools.

e. VocatJoppl trainin&

57. Vocational traL.1":'n6J \~:lich was undevel oped at the time of independence, is now arousing growing interest. Vocational training consists of the so-called conventional courses which receive children from normal technical and general educatiori cycles and special coursea for people who are already employed. The vocational training institutions, together with the professional wings of the secondary schools, took in 1,200 students in 1983/1984.

58. After independence in 1960, Senegal was faced with the problem of adapting its higher education to actual staff requirements, replacing foreign technical assistance teaching personnel and reserving jobs for Senegalese only in the industrial and trading sectors. Policy in this situation was to seek to increase the number of students in higher education institutions and to better orient their training' -to the needs of zhoae sectors having an immediate impact on the country's development.

59.

1961 to

Thus, the number of students in the university rose from 1,018 in 11,644 in 1980.

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ECA/IeHD/88/l2 Page

10

60.

The number of faculties has not changed since

1980

(four facultieSl Science, Arts and Humanities, Medicine and Phartaacy , Law and Economics).

The Faculty of Law and Economics, with a yearly student intake. rate of

10

per cent, has become the largest faculty in terms of its student population, thus posing the difficult problem of employment for its new graduates.

61.

Although, the achievements of the university have not been the subject of any indepth analysis, it is precisely at this level of education that the impact of t'he number of repeating student$ and those that drop out on the increase in training expenses has been highest.

62.

However, it ha$ been observed that the

tate

of success at examinations increased a$ university course$ improved.

(d) klpnpowe,r md. ;p!g.l.ovment"el"gb!!ll1/i

(i)

frobl~JLyoJ.reliableem~l0Ym$nt dp~~

63.

The inadequacy and diversity of data sources on manpower and employment make any attempts to understand trends in the sector fraught with difficulty. Senegalese labour data are both scanty and unreliable.

Since

1974

no comprehensive data has been published covering manpower by subsector, branch, age and qualification.

64.

Magib Ndaw's report on the employment of young graduates from higher institutions states that no body of employers workers' associations nor the employment, labour and statistical authorities are able to provide accurate data on the number of graduates.

65.

Data are not yet available on the medium-term manpower requirements of the economy. This conSiderable information gap makes it quite difficult to select various higher education courses for future undergraduates and to work out a manpower training scheme at the national level.

66.

The fact that labour statistics are insufficient, incomplete and lack continuity and that the various departments involved in labour data collection do not use the same terminology makes any attempt to formulate a comprehensive, coherent and rational labour policy even more difficult.

67.

However, some manpower and employment characteristics that emerged from the surveys conducted by the statistical department and the employment office are valuable data, even though further investigations are needed to improve upon the main conclusions.

(it)

G.eneral manpower {lPg.,

emplo~.ent

J.!'l'!Je,/i.

68.

In

1985,

the total working population increased to

2,394,000,

with

1,776,000

working in the rural areas and.

618,000

working in the urban areas.

By

1989,

the final year of the seventh plan, the total working population,

i.e. the

15

to

64

year age group, is expected to reach

2,791,000.

(13)

ECA/ICHD!88!12 Page 11

69. There is a general feeling that employment of additional manpower for the rural sector should not raise any major problems, since the sector has the capacity to absorb extra manpower. The problem is different in the urban sector where the modern structures of the economy are no longer able to absorb the surplus qualified manpower; this causes the expansion of the informal sector which has a large low-productivity and under-employed labour force.

70. Recent trends in empIoyment ' problems have been characterized mainly by youth unemployment and this has focussed attention on the urgent need for solutions to the probiems of:

(a) Young graduates;

(b) Young workers in the informal urban sector; and

(c) Rural youth who are victims of the drift to the urban and semi-urban areas.

71. In 1984, there was a total of 210,000 salaried employees in the modern sector (public, parastatal and modern). The total number of workers in this sector has grown by 10,000·units a year since 1978.

72. The number of workers in the public sector 01. 7 per cent of the total or about 66,000) increased regularly by 5,000 units a year between 1978 and 1981; this rate of increase later decreased by half in 1982. A civil service control unit was e stab Lf ahed to control the number of civil servants and total emoluments. The number of workers in the parastatal sector (11 per cent of the total) also steadily increased between 1978 and 1984.

73. I t is difficult to assess the number of people who are actually self employed. However, it may be considered that hundreds of thousands of people carrying out activities that are poor in productivity and fetch low-incomes are involved in the sector.

74. The traditional of people employment.

rural sector has almost the same characteristics as the urban sector: its main features are the considerable number who are under-employed, on short time or are in disguised

75. Over the past few yaars , the situation of the rural labour force has deteriorated as a result of the successive periods of drought during the last decade. From a study of the labour market over that decade, the following con

7lusions

can be drawn:

(a) The· number of salaried employees in the modern sector in terms of the total labour force remained insignificant (less than 10 per cent);

(b) The active urban labour force, particularly the unemployed portion grew very rapidly as a result of a faster rural-urban drift coupled with the arrival on the labour market of ever-increasing numbers of trained graduates;

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ECA/ICHD/88/l2 Page 12

(c) The professional qualifications of job seekers did not match the requirements of the production structures;

(d) Urban unemployment increased in considerable rate of ~alaried job creation;

absolute and

terms in spite of the

(e) of the limits

Rural jobs have become increasingly precarious due to drought which reduces rural production and international increases in real terms of producer prices.

the effects trade which

76. In order to improve the above-mentioned situation, the State implemented several activities of a general and specific nature which resulted in a relative improvement in employment during the sixth plan (1981-1985), especially with respect to categories of job seekers such as graduates from higher educational institutions.

77. The short-term job creation plan or emergency plan enabled the State to find self-employed jobs in areas such as market gardening, fruit crop farming and semi-industrial fishing for a fairly considerable number of ,young people.

78. The State established a special fund to help reintegrate all those who became redundant as a result of the implementation of its medium- and long-term structural adjustment policy (1985-1992), which, among other things, is based on the gradual withdrawal of the State from some areas of activity such as agriculture and industry for the benefit of private operators.

C. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL RECOVERY MEASURES, NEW STRATEGIES IN THE FIELD OF HUMAN RESOURCES

(a) Economic., apd, ij.nanciat. recover measures the mediu - and lon-

J~.rm structural adjpss~ent gr08ramme 1985-1992) ,

79.The various obstacles to economic growth, namely over-consumption, inefficient investments, and almost total lack of domestic savings and the increase in the external debt, gave cause for concern to the authorities as early as 1979 and during the period from 1980 to 1985.

80. Indeed, in order to stop the deterioration in public funds and public holdings abroad, the Government outlined in 1978 a recovery policy which was given final form by the 1978-1979 Stabilization Programme and later on the 1980-1985 Economic and Financial Recovery Programme. The aims of the latter programme were to improve public finance and stimulate .eeenoeuc growth; it embarked upon a rigorous consumer price adjustment policy and implemented strict measures to control the total number of civil servants and total emoluments. However, in spite of its strict enforcement, the stabilization programme, was unable to carry through the structural policies mentioned earlier. This was due in part to the extreme dominance of the economy by the public and parastatal sectors and the lack of responsibility on the part of national economic agents.

(15)

ECA!ICHD/88/12 Page 13

81. This policy which was introduced by the Government to the consultative group of donors in December 1984, aims to remove or reduce the structural constraints to the resumption of sustained economic growth.

82. The set economic growth objective of about 3.2 per cent in real terms should be compared to the population growth rate estimated at 2.9 per cent a year. The economic growth rate estimate assumes that more efficient investments will be made and that the projects selected ·will generate greater value added than in the past.

83. Vigorous external trade activities will reduce the external trade deficit.

84. Exports are considered a priority objective. However, the imports of final consumer food items will have to be checked as part of a strategy of food self-sufficiency. Efforts will be made to achieve sharp reduction in the final consumption of both households and the government in order to generate substantial domestic savings to finance investments and thus reduce proportionally the amount of external aid required.

85. The investment strategy. In view of the high cost of capital goods and the current financial situation of the country, the Government plans to -increase efficiency through the rationalization of investment planning (rolling triennial programming of investments). Priority will be given to prOjects that are directly productive,

86. In the economic and social infrastructures sector, some rehabilitation and repair work will be undertaken.

87. The State intends to transfer a portion of its investment portfolio to the private sector.

(it) strgctural

88. The main document to be used for implementing the guidelines contained in the medium- and long-term structural adjustment programme is the seventh Economic and Social Development Pfan (1985-1989). Page 3. of the document states, .\pter

"ail,

that Senegel· pas since the beginning of the present decade embarked upon a process of economic· adjustment aimed at rectifying the causes of the countryIs structural imbalances. This is part· of the medium- and long-term adjustment programme (1985-1992) adopted by the Government.

89. The strategic the new policy are structural adjustment objectives,

.guidelines, objectives and programmes of action under thus those contained in the medium- and long-term programme which relate mainly to the follOWing five

(16)

ECA/ICHD/B8/12 Page 14

(a) Strengthening th2

fTCd~ctiv~

sectors;

(b) Improving the efficiency of investments;

(c) Reatructuring the parastatal sector;

(d) Improving public finance; and

(e) Restoring the balance-of-payments equilibrium.

90. New agricultural and industrial policies, the development of fisheries activities and tourism promotion are the main components of the programme.

a.

~

new agricpltural golicy 91. The new agricultural policy aims to.

(a) Reorganize the rural areas and give responsibility to rural producers by establishing village networks and producer groups. Such bodies will be'autonomous and have legal status, which will give them access to bank credit;

(b) Supply the rural areas with seeds, fertilizers and agricultural implements. These measures are designed to reduce government subsidy, facilitate access to agricultural credit and transfer the management of some inputs to the peasants;

(c) Reorganize the rural development companies on the basis of a contractual policy aimed at redefining the role of each one of them and based on the general principle of giving responsibility to the producers and withdrawal of the State from production, extension and marketing activities;

(d) Formulate a grain policy designed to increase the production of local cereals and to create an active market through the ,non-industrial or industrial processing of domestic grain;

,(e) Protect the environment through desertification control.

b. The

new=~gdustrial

gOli£X

92. The main objectives of the new industrial policy are to encoutage

innovation~and

risk taking, to increase the output of enterprises, to promote basic products and to rehabilitate industrial property. Industries will be protected less, industrial prices will be liberalized and customs tariffs will have to be readjusted.

93. In view of the high cost of industrial production, as soon as the

manufacturing process has a high energy and transport component, the

competitiveness of industry will be based on increased productivity of labour

(as a result of greater vocational training) and on the selection of products

with greater added value.

(17)

ECA/ICHD/88/1Z

Page 15

Z. IJl!2a0Y.i.n.&.. F,pe efficie,!l,fJ:. of i.n.v.IJ.l!.\'meAl;,§,

94. This' policy is aimed not only at increasing national savings through a policy

of

restrictingconsumptioll but also at promoting private investments a consequence of which is the gradual withdrawal of the State from productive and trading activities.

95. The establishment of structures and procedures and revival activities are sector.

project lind the

expected

evaluation, selection and programming revitalization of investment follow-up to Lmpvove efficiency in the public

96. The restru.::tur:l.ng of the pacas c at e I sector which is connected with the State's decision Lo withdraw f~om the s8ctor is based on the following:

(a) Reviewing investments made by the Stat,e in the sector and limiting the setting up of newparastatal compa~ies;

(b) plang"

Improving stipuladng

the periormance of the sector specLfLcrperEormance r:.r;iteria;

by negotiating "contrats-

(c) Gradually reciucing deficit GUOJidics;

(d) Expedit'ing ·the· liq~idat"on

winding' up those that have finished

·pf.agencies that have gone bankrupt .and

thea r ms.ss Lon,

97. The strict budget austerity policy will be continued.

98. With:· ·regardto.: ;staff expenda-tarre , the staf·f control exercbe already underway will be strengt.hened at the government and Lecat authorities, leve~s so a&'tol'educe the' grow'th of total s',aff emoluments.

99. Efforts will be made to wi?e out the ourreut account 'deficit by stabilizing the" volume,,!,' exports and usi.ng various i\1centives, to boost exports. ",financing pxoj e.cvs :'l~n more concca s Lona I terms· and aecur rng max.1,m\lID.

bank'.c."'edit ahou Ld "1.90 help to r evcstab Lash the overall balam;e-of-paymellts equil'1brium.

100.

The main purpose of the adjustm~nt p.og.amme is to close the gap between consumption and production, which Ls the obv Lous cause of imbalances. Thlls since the program.ne' s object Ivaa are essentially economic. social Concerns are given a very low priority.

(18)

ECA/ICHD/88/12 Page 16

101. However, the Government has recently dcc l ared its intention to ensure that studies are conducted on the social implications of the adjustment programme. The initial surveys conducted show the need to establish a simple system of basic social adjustment indicators and to study the impact of the adj us tmant; programme on a target group. the staff and empLoyees of the public and parastatal sectors.

102. In the approach to the social aspects of the adjustment programme, the basic idea that has been adopted is to establish a system of social ad jus cmenr indicators to provide r e l evant; shert-term information to policy- makers indicating whether or not the implementation of the adjustment pxcgxamma has created problems or helped to solve them. The preparation of such indicators at a limited cost does not mean that certain pre-conditions have been met.

103. Studies have confined the social adjustment process to one of adjustment in living standards and access to employment. In conne~tioa with the adjustment in living standards, the various social groups affected by the adjustmeut measures will endeavour despite the decline in their previous living standards to maintain the standards at previous levels by securing salary ajvances; not paying their debts or accumulating such debts;

witl,;d.'ew:i,ng their savings; and asking for social welfare as s Lstauce , and by conc8ntrating expenditure Oll such essential items' as consuMp~ion and hous Lug ~t tae expense of such other items &S clothing and le::'su"e. With regard

cO

adjustment in respect to employment access, the facts to be considered comprise a large number of variables and things thus b,eo:ome very diffic"J">

104. In short, it is a question of devsloping a simple system of basic social adjustment indicators (financial, real and structural adjustment indicators) to ascertain within a limited period whether the woner.. concerned feel the "ff",ets of the adjustment proce su and if so, how they adapt to it and also to sosess the impact of the adjustment programme on the target g~~ups.

3" Jl.esql.l,s of thg initial.~;rx.eV'.

105. Ita social effects of the adjustment programme have been in the traditicr,al areas: employment, income, and consumption. I t must be pointed out thot the basic difficulty that has confronted the technical team ent~usted

with t:,e development of the s oc LaI indicato:cs has been the inadequacy of sGcial ">taU.stical dat a , I t is currently di"ficult to find data that can shed 15.g11t on current social deve Iopuent s , The various social adjustment Lnd Lcacc-re , even indirect ones, have proved difficult to implement because of non-1vailability of data. In the face of such difficulties, a freah approach was found, to conduct a more systematic study of the soci~l Gituation in Senegal through the traditional areas of employment, incomes and prices,

individ~el and ~ollective consumption.

(19)

ECA/ICHD/88/12 Page 17

106. The new option, namely the adoption of a specific approach to social indicators will make it possible to integrate the partial indicators when they become available and thus prevent possible errors of interpretation in the analysis of quantified series taken out of context. The social development approach, to the adjustment plan through the development of specific indicators will begin shortly. The Department of Human Resources of the Ministry of Planning and Co-operation, has already supervised the implementation of surveys and background work required to implement the plan.

1. Fhe iJll,,!!,!,ctuQ.llJmployment of t~Il,Jl.frl!cturaladjustment measurg 107. Aspo!nted out earlier, the implementation of the adjustment programme, would necessarily have major social effects having to do particularly with the redistribution of roles between the public, parastatal and private sectors, the impac't of the new agricultural and industrial policies and with the improveliti,l1t of public finances. The Government has thus decided to establish a mechanism for continuously analysing the social e'ffects of the' policy, particularly in terms of loss of employment and to ol1tlitte a strategy for the necessary support measures.

108. In this connection, the strategy of creating new productive jobs in various forms (new enterprises, small-scale projects split into economic interest groupings self-employment) to employ or re-employ job seekers and

",' the additional strategy of creating jobs within, upstream and' downstream 'from existing enterprises are both ways of implementing the structural

adjustment programme.

1l.f..9HeSS on < astion" .,alre.a.,l!.Y

.!fJ1rrs,n,sJJl$mploymeJ1f'S. pj

tuat...i,.$!p:

tak\l!\

a. ~~ion w.g,!> respect to..l!!.ajl-l)8l"er to be inteHate", 2.

109. The number of persons currently needing employment is estimated at between 2,650 and 3,200.

(a) 650 to 1,000 graduates from higher institutions;

(b) 1,700-1,800 former employees of rural development companies;

(c) 300-400 returnitig '~~igrants seeking jobs.

110. The Eistimatednumbel' of persons that would have to be employed between 1987 and 1990 pert'arget group is broken down as follows.

(a) 2,827-3,177 graduates from higher institutions;

(b) 2,460-2,560 former employees of rural development companies;

(c) 1,350-1,450 returning emigrants;

(20)

ECA/ICHD/88/12 Page 18

(d) 2,500-3,500 former private sector employees;

(e) 3,000 (2,500-3,500) civil servants.

b. 1eview,.

Qf

th\_ emplswment and $"re-employment measures gopte,g .1lince 198&

111. Since 1982, nearly CFAF 6 billion has been spent on integrating into the economic system 576 graduates of higher institutions and some former emigrants who set up 261 small-scale enterprises that led to the creation of 1,877 new jobs, The average cost of integration stood at CFAF 10 million, whereas the average cost of creating new jobs reached CFAF 2.4 million.

In additi~n, 205 graduates from higher institution were absorbed into existing enterprises after' pre-eEployment training or' through the creation of similar posts. On the whole since 1982, 781 people including 666 graduates from higher institutions have benefitted from the Government scheme.

112. The resources obtained to finance the scheme have proved quite inconsistent with the objectives pursued' because the cost involved has been very high. &"1 additional amount of CFAF·492 million is currently needed to complete the ongoing projects whereas CFAF 850 million is available from external sources to complete the scheme or to begin new projects. A 20 per cent contribution came from the State, 6 per cent from outside sources and 66 per cent of the requirements were met through bank loans.

113. FolloWing the decision to layoff 2,000 employees of the rural development companies by 1987, the Government set up a Special Re~employment

Fund to finance the productive enterprises started by people who lost their jobs as a result of the implementation of the medium- and long-term structural adjustment programme and mainly as a result of the decline of the rural development corporations.

114. A UNDP financed assistance project for the re-employment of employees affected by the restructuring scheme is currently responsible for co-ordinating and monitoring the implementation of the employment and re- employment programmes and activities. The objectives of the project are.

(a) To establish small- and medium-scale enterprises;

(b) To establish a system of support to the amaLl> and medium-scale enterprises;

(c) To provide continuing staff supervision training and retraining;

(d) To design a more comprehensive re-employment framework based on the setting up of the omall- and medium-scale enterprises and on some long- term activities designed to develop the spirit of entrepreneurship and self- employment.

115. The various ffieaSureG proposed include:

(21)

ECA/ICHD/88/12 Page 19

(a)

~~form

of" th.e. Labour COde

I

The main proviSions of the bill 00 the reform' of the -Labour Code are as follows.

(L)

Abolition of the placement monopoly hitherto granted to the labour office, which created the possibility for the enterprises to recruit directly or turn to private employment agencies;

(H) Relaxation of the rules governing conditions for renewal of fixed- term labour contracts in the case of non-permanent jobs;

(b) Studies to,.!>£, 50'1.ducte!l:

(i) Study on the reform of the Labour Office;

(ii) Study on incentive6 for employers and workers towards enterprise production and employment prOjllotion;

(Hi)

Study, on the reintegratior. of persons laid off from the private

sector;

(iv) Study 'on the

re-deploym~nt

of State employees wishing to leave government service.

(iii)

p~velop~n.t

2\anning

an9"o~tt$Af.§,.

to take into

I

sccouDt

*~~

~~9ulatiJm variabl~

Trends in GDP/population

1959-1972 1973-1980 1980-1985

GDP

Population GDP/per capita

2.5 3.3 -0.8

e . . . . .

2.1 2.8 -0.7

3.5 2.8 +0.7

116.

An analysis of the table shows that during the first two decades of independence, in spite of che fact that the

~DP

grew at an acceptable rate, population growth was so high that it nearly wiped out the positive results of ecooomic growth. Thus, despite the satisfactory economic growth achieved, it could be said that living standards in Senegal calculated in terms of real per capita income have rather declined basically because population growth was much too high when compared to development prospects.

117. Thanks to the structural adjustment efforts made, from the '1978

stabilization programme to the medium- and long-term structural adjustmeot

programme (1985-1992), the rate of economic growth and the populatioo growth

rate are balanced and produced a positive per capita iocome of 0.7 per ceot

in 1985.

(22)

ECA!ICHD!88!12 Page 20

118. In addition. projections and estimates based on current demographic data· show that Senegal will. in the coming decades, have to cope with a larger population of school-age children. Dlore job demands and very likely a surge in urban unemployment and rural under-employment. Housing problems will be more acute and there will be an ever-increasing demand for welfare

services as a whole·, .

119. Such population and economic prospects explain the importance the Governnlentattaches to its efforts to take into account demographic trends in economic and social development planning. However, in order to take into account population trends, a reliable scientific machinery has to be established to ensure greater control of economic and population data and to formulate a conceptual framework,

120. The National Committee on PClpulation has already conducted a number of specifiC surveys to shed SODIe light wi thin the particular context of the Senegalese economy, on the basic· relationshipilbetween population and economic data. In addition, the Committee has just developed a model code named RAPID II SENEGAL, designed to create awareness of the impact of population development, among policy-makers, as part of a demographic and economic study of Senegal's development prospects. RAPiD, an acronym which stands for "Resources for Awareness of Population Impacts on Development.

was designed in the United States around 1980 on the basis of micro-computer applied modelling to create awareness among third world policy-makers of the 'importance of population growth impact on development. RAPID II SENEGAL is a multi-sectoral study prepared and carried out entirely by Senegalese technicians, which covered the follOWing subsectors. population, education, health, gra::n o(.:lf-~...££icie·.~~y~ ,;;,:;.::.;-.l·':.hQ ...x.oa l energy , economics, employment and family planning.

121. RAPID II SENEGAL has sought to demonstrate the impact of population growth on sectoral performance on the basis of projections into the year 2011. The fertility assumptions put forward take into account the impact of the Government's social policies in the areas of health, education, family planning, etc. Three types of scenarios were selected. .

(a) High growth assumption (maintenance of the current level of fertility and a slight decline in mortality);

(b) Average growth assumption (slight decline in fertility and mortality);

(c) Low growth assumption (substantial decline i n · fe.rtility and mortali ty ) •

122. The projections On these assumptions were uniformly used for all the sectors. They were made on the basis of ~ge and sex. The results obtained were as follows.

(a) High growth of the Senegalese population irrespective of the assumptions underlying the projections;

(b) The age and sex structure will basically remain unchanged (the age pyramid will remain wide at the base and narrow at the apex);

(23)

ECA/ICHD/88/l2 Page 21

(c) The impact of the population growth rate on that of the gross domestic product will be positive, but the GDP per capita will grow at a slower rate.

123. Job creation will not reach the expected level and urban unemployment will reach alarming proportions, despite the optimistic assumptions for the employment sector. The education and health sectors cannot attain their respective objectives of universal education and health for all by the year 2000 unless more resources are allocated to them, in spite of the austerity measures. The rehabilitation of forests and the attainment of food self- sufficiency may be compromised in spite of the resources mobilized. While such conclusions are alarming, it must be noted that the flexibility of the sub-models used in the study shows that by carrying out a two-fold action on the economy and population variables and behaviour patterns, more positive results could be obtained.

124. RAPID II SENEGAL is thus the starting point of study on how to integrate

the population variable into economic and social development. This survey,

which has already begun, will be pursued in greater depth during the third

phase of the Population Unit Project of the United Nations Fund for Population

Activities.

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