Transboundary Governance as Applicable to IWRM with Specific Reference to Groundwater

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Transboundary Governance as Applicable to IWRM with Specific Reference to Groundwater

Systems that Cross Borders

International Workshop on Groundwater Management 4-7 April 2005

Cairo, Egypt

Dr. Anthony Turton

Gibb-SERA Chair in Integrated Water Resource Management [email protected]

President: Universities Partnership for Transboundary Waters www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu

© AR Turton, 2005.

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500 1000 0

Kilometres

N

Shared River Basins

Africa’s shared river basins contain:

• 61 % of the area

• 77 % of the people

• 93 % of the water

© Pete Ashton

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500 1000 0

Kilometres

N Mourzouk

Djado Basin Errachedia

Basin

Senegalo- Mauritanian

Basin

Northern Sahara Basin

Nubian Sandstone

Basin Taoudéni

Basin

Benin-Togo- Nigeria Coastal Aquifer

Awash- Djibouti Basin

Merti Basin Irhazer

Iullemeden

Basin Chad

Basin

Okavango Aquifer

Kalahari Aquifer Cote d’Ivoire-

Ghana Coastal Aquifer Tindouf

Aquifer

A

B

C

Upper Nile Basin

Ogaden - Juba Aquifer

Congo Intra-Cratonic

Basin

D E

F G

H

I J

M

K L

N

Kenya- Tanzania

Coastal Aquifer Congo

Coastal Aquifer

Cunene Coastal Aquifer

Gariep Coastal Aquifer A Liptako-Gourma Aquifer

B L’Air Crystalline Aquifer C Tin-Séririne Aquifer

D Rift Valley Secondary Aquifers E Mount Elgon Aquifer

F Kagera Aquifer Kilimanjaro Aquifer G

Upper Rovuma Aquifer H

Shire Valley Alluvial Aquifer I

Nata-Gwaai Aquifer J

Tuli-Shashe Aquifer K

Pafuri Alluvial Aquifer L

M Ramotswa Dolomite Aquifer N Karoo Sedimentary Aquifer

Rovuma Coastal Aquifer

Incomati Coastal Aquifer

Source: UNESCO (2004)

Shared Aquifer Systems

© Pete Ashton

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PERENNIAL RIVERS AND LAKES: SITES OF DISPUTES

Disputes usually occur

in zones where water availability is

uncertain Perennial

rivers

© Pete Ashton

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Dependence Neighbouring on

States for River Inflows

/ Water Transfers

500 1000 0

Kilometres

N

0 %

0 - 10 % 11 - 24 % 25 - 49 %

> 50 %

Degree of Dependence on Neighbouring States

© Pete Ashton

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WATER AVAILABLE PER PERSON IN 2002 AND 2025

2002 2025

Water security Adequate water

Water stress Chronic scarcity Absolute scarcity

© Pete Ashton

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Understanding the IWRM Paradigm

Locus Axis Centralized Management

Decentralized Management (Subsidiarity)

(e.g. CMA’s) Focus Axis

Managing Supply

Managing Demand

© AR Turton, 2002

First-order Focus Building Infrastructure

Second-order Focus Building Institutions

WINER

WIER

WISER

The cross-over came from the UN Conference on Environment and

Development (UNCED) (Rio Conference) and the parallel Dublin Conference. The Dublin

Principles call for both the commodification and the democratization of water.

The global discourse on

sustainable development is being driven from

this quadrant.

But many developing countries needs are

still located in this quadrant

The big challenge to understanding the groundwater issue is thus to

understand the IWRM discourse and to critically examine the concepts relating to governance

and oversight as they apply to specific socio-cultural, economic

and historic contexts. In short it is about understanding 2 ^nd Order

Resource Scarcity.

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Adaptive Security Matrix

Egypt Zimbabwe Burundi

Mozambique

Tanzania Malawi Eritrea Sudan Angola

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

2 4 6 8 10 14 18 22 26

1 3 5 7 9 12 16 20 24

28 ^Namibia

Botswana

Mauritius South Africa Swaziland

Uganda

Kenya Congo DR

Zambia

Adaptively Insecure

Adaptively Secure

W at er I ns ec u re W at er S ecu re

Second-Order Resource Availability Expressed as GNP PPP for 1998 in US$/cap/yr

^-1

X 10

³

F ir st -O rd er R es ou rc e A va il ab il it y E xp re ss ed a s F re sh w at er A va il ab il it y in 1 99 8 m

3

/c ap /y r

-1

X 1 0

3

Lesotho Ethiopia

© Turton & Warner, 2002.

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The concept of “Governance” as a manifestation of a Trialogue

Government

Science Society

© Turton, Roux, Claassen, & Hattingh, 2005.

Interface Interface

Interface

This is about rule making, rule application and rule

adjudication.

This is about society, economy and ecology, i.e

the sustainable development discourse.

This is about legitimacy of the government processes.

This is about a balance and integration between the natural

and the social sciences.

This is about science informing and supporting the policy-making process.

This is about science in the service of society.

2 ^nd Order Resources keep it

all in balance and in synch.

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100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1250 1500 2000 2500 Mean Annual Rainfall (mm)

0 250 500 km

NAMIBIA

BOTSWANA

SOUTH AFRICA

ZAMBIA

ZIMBABWE ANGOLA

D. R. C.

_TANZANIA

MOZABIQUE

SWAZILAND

LESOTHO

MALAWI

= 860 mm isohyet

= World average rainfall

MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL

SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm

© Pete Ashton

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How Water Scarce is Southern Africa?

© O’Keeffe et al

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Cuvelai Kunene

Zambezi

Limpopo

Pungué Buzi Save-Runde

Orange Maputo

Incomati Umbeluzi Okavango/

Makgadikgadi Congo

Nile Lake Chad

Namibia Botswana

South Africa

Congo (DRC)

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Lesotho

Swaziland

Malawi Mozambique Angola

250 500

0

Kilometres

N

Rovuma

South Africa and Zimbabwe are listed amongst the top

twenty countries in the world in terms of the numbers of dams built

(WCD 2000)

Dams and hydraulic

infrastructure in Southern

Africa

© P Ashton

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Cuvelai Kunene

Zambezi

Limpopo

Namibia Botswana

South Africa

Congo (DRC)

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Lesotho

Swaziland

250 500

0

Kilometres

N

Rovuma

WATER

TRANSFERS SOUTHERN IN

AFRICA

Existing water transfer scheme Proposed new water transfer scheme

© Pete Ashton

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Heavily

Utilized Water Resources in

Southern Africa

Water resources

approaching “closure” – very little left to allocate for off-channel uses

Water resources under increased pressure –

need to ensure closer co-operation with

neighbouring states

Cuvelai Cunene

Zambezi

Limpopo

Namibia Botswana

South Africa

Congo (DRC)

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Lesotho

Swaziland

250 500

0

Kilometres

N

Rovuma

© Pete Ashton

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Source: Scholes & Biggs (2004:4)

HADCM3 Climate Model Projections using IPCC SRES

A2 Scenario showing Precipitation for 2050

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y = 148 ln(x) - 880

0.1 1 10 100 1000

0 500 1000 1500

Annual rainfall (mm)

R e ch ar g e ( m m /yr )

Beeckman et al

Groundwater recharge

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Hydro-Political Complex

Impacted International River Basins

Legend:

PS = Pivotal State IS = Impacted State SC = Special case

In co ma ti

PS

- -

IS IS

Limpopo

PS PS PS

-

IS

Orange

PS SC

PS

- - - -

IS Namibia

Botswana South Africa Zimbabwe Angola

Mozambique Swaziland Lesotho Zambia Malawi Tanzania

Riparian States

Impacted States Pivotal States

Pivotal

Okavang o

PS PS

- -

IS

Maputo

PS

- -

IS IS

Pungué

PS

-

IS

Save-Runde

PS

-

IS

Zam b ezi

PS PS

-

PS IS IS

- -

IS IS IS

Cunene

- - -

IS PS

Ashton & Turton, 2005

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The Importance of Scale

Local National Regional

Geographical scale

Many

Few

Alternative options available for dispute

resolution Potential

for dispute to occur

Low

High Severe

Mild

Potential consequences

of a dispute

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Transboundary Governance as Applicable to IWRM with Specific Reference to Groundwater