From scientific information on climate change to economic analysis for adaptation of infrastructure : the case study of SNCF

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From scientific information on climate change to

economic analysis for adaptation of infrastructure : the

case study of SNCF

Vivian Depoues

To cite this version:

Vivian Depoues. From scientific information on climate change to economic analysis for adaptation of infrastructure : the case study of SNCF. Economics and Finance. Université Paris Saclay (COmUE), 2019. English. �NNT : 2019SACLV015�. �tel-02083989�

From scientific information on climate

change to economic analysis for

adaptation of infrastructure:

the case study of SNCF

Thèse de doctorat de l'Université Paris-Saclay préparée à l’Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines

École doctorale n°578 Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société ED SHS

Spécialité de doctorat : Sciences économiques

Thèse présentée et soutenue à GUYANCOURT, le 05 Février 2019, par

Vivian Dépoues

Composition du Jury :

Ángel Aparicio

Professor, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (Escuela T.S) Président du jury Anders Blok

Associate Professor, University of Copenhagen (Sociologisk Institut) Rapporteur Arnaud Diemer

Maître de Conférences (HDR), Université Clermont Auvergne (CERDI) Rapporteur Franck Lecocq

Professeur, AgroParistech (CIRED) Examinateur

Jean-Paul Vanderlinden

Professeur, Université Versailles-Saint-Quentin (CEARC), Co-Directeur de thèse Tommaso Venturini

Advance research fellow, ENS Lyon (INRIA/Ixxi) Co-Directeur de thèse

Aude Bodiguel

Economiste, ADEME Invitée

Benoît Leguet

Economiste, Directeur Général, I4CE Invité

N N T : 2 0 1 9 S A CL V 0 1 5

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C’est pourquoi, nous avons souhaité nous déplacer pour voir comment les acteurs plus (.! 6+%&(!-C(*!/(!'(++-%.!6(+*(C-%(.'!('!)c*+%C-%(.'!/(;+&!+(/-'%2.&!-;!*/%5-'!('!b!&(&!*$-.4(5(.'&! perçus ou anticipés. Cela a donné lieu à une étude de cas approfondie sur l’exploitation 7(++2C%-%+(!)-.&!/-!+c4%2.!)(!J2.'6(//%(+!)2.'!+(.)!*256'(!/(!S;-'+%d5(!*$-6%'+(9!=(!*$-6%'+(! présente ainsi comment, du temps long de la conception d’une LGV jusqu’à la gestion de la *%+*;/-'%2.!-;!S;2'%)%(.G!le climat est un réel enjeu pour le ferroviaire qui s’adapte déjà. Bien +c(/!62;+!/(&!-*'(;+&G!/(!*$-.4(5(.'!*/%5-'%S;(!(&'!4c+c!&;+!;.!52)(!+c-*'%7!('!%.*+c5(.'-/!–! l’adaptation devant en permanence se négocier avec des héritages lourds et d’autres dynamiques d’évolution. Ces analyses nous ont permis de compléter un portrait de l’adaptation «!telle qu’elle se fait!g!('!'(lle qu’elle s’articule avec les dynamiques structurantes du système ferroviaire et notamment les efforts continus de rationalisation et d’optimisation.!

Dans un cinquième chapitre nous partageons les résultats d’un '()&$*+,(&-! 2+4-.%&c! (.! 2*'2,+(!RX"\!b!J2.tpellier pour étudier les questions qui émergent lorsque l’on met l’accent &;+!)(&!*-+-*'c+%&'%S;(&!);!*$-.4(5(.'!*/%5-'%S;(!–!/(&!(Z'+e5(&!('!/-!C-+%-,%/%'c!–!S;%!.2;&! 6-+-%&&-%(.'!52%.&!,%(.!)%&*;'c(&9!V.!C2%'!-/2+&!S;(!/(!&;<('!-!;.(!+c(//(!*-6-*%'c!b!%.'(++24(+! /(&!5-.%d+(&!)(!7-%+(G!/(&!)2*'+%.(&!('!/(&!*$2%Z!&'+-'c4%S;(&9!:/!62&(!*(6(.)-.'!)(&!S;(&'%2.&! )(! 42;C(+.-.*(! S;%! )c,2+)(.'! /-+4(5(.'! SNCF. Cette manière d’amener le sujet révèle la diversité des postures d’adaptation possibles qui peuvent s’avérer différentes d’une entité à l’autre, y compris au sein même du groupe SNCF. !

_(!*$-6%'+(!*2.*/;&%7!s’efforce de récolter les fruits de cette approche. En quoi la description

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*2..-%&&-.*(!&;+!)(&!cC2/;'%2.&!7;';+(&!)-.&!/(&!)c*%&%2.&!6+c&(.'(&G!)(!7-%+(!(Z%&'(+!*(!/2.4N terme dans la stratégie d’une organisation. Il discute notamment de la complémentarité des manières de formuler les enjeux de l’adaptation pour ce type d’acteurs, en tenant compte de /-! )%C(+&%'c! )(&! 52)(&! )(! +-'%2.-/%'c&! 6+c&(.'(s. L’analyse économique y apparaît alors comme une forme parmi d’autres, intéressante à mobiliser avant tout comme une science de /-! 42;C(+.-.*(! N! 62;+! )c6/20(+! /(&! *2.&cS;(.*(&! 62&&%,/(&! );! *$-.4(5(.'! */%5-'%S;(G! explorer les pistes et ouvrir des espaces où penser l’adaptation. !

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#$%&! 6+2,/(5-'%*! %.'(+-*'%2.&! ,('3((.! -! &*%(.*(N,-&()! 8.23/()4(G! *$-.4(&! %.! '$(! */%5-'(! &0&'(5G! %.7+-&'+;*';+(! -&! -! &2*%2'(*$.%*-/! &0&'(5! -.)! -! /-+4(! 2+4-.%1-'%2.! -+(! 2;+! 5-%.! +(&(-+*$!%.'(+(&'!%.!'$%&!'$(&%&9!#$%&!%.'(+(&'!%&!+22'()!%.!&*%(.*(!-.)!'(*$.2/240!&';)%(&!AE#EF9! We use the term STS here to refer to a diverse research tradition, i.e. “not only a field, but -/&2!-.!%.'(//(*';-/!*255;.%'0!&$-+%.4G!%7!.2'!-!6-+-)%45G!-'!/(-&'!-!*2552.!(6%&'(52/24%*-/! +(62&%'2+0r!A_-'182N#2'$G!RXXUF9!?&!.2'()!,0!A]23)(.G!"UUTF!“STS is a multidisciplinary field.

RT! #$(!8(0!7-*'2+!$2/)%.4!'$(!C-+%2;&!E#E!+(&(-+*$!-4(.)-&!'24('$(+!%&!-!'26%*-/!%.'(+(&'!%.!&*%(.*(! and technology”. In this research, 3(!72*;&!2.!$23!-.!%&&;(!6+2);*()!,0!&*%(.*(!5(('&!'$(! (*2.25%*!32+/)!-&!&';)%()!-.)!6(+72+5()!,0!(*2.25%*&9!

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&*%(.*(! -&! -! )25-%.! )('-*$()! 7+25! &2*%('0! -.)! /%.(-+! 52)(/&! 42%.4! 7+25! “pure” &*%(.'%7%*! +(&(-+*$! '2! 62/%'%*-/! 2+! (*2.25%*! )(*%&%2.&9! :.&'(-)G! E#E! ,(4-.! '2! -.-/01(! '$(! &2*%-/! production of scientific facts and innovations as collective processes focusing on science “in the making”. In these processesG!&2*%-/!7-*'&!-+(!%.C2/C()!%.!&*%(.*(9!E*%(.*(!%&!5-)(!,0!6(26/(! 3$2!-+(!-/&2!*%'%1(.&!-.)!(*2.25%*!-4(.'&G!3$2!32+8!%.!*256-.%(&!2+!-)5%.%&'+-'%2.&!-.)! -*';-//0!)2!'$%.4&!AK(/'G!K2;*$cG!J%//(+G!i!E5%'$NI2(++G!RX"[p!W-*8(''G!?5&'(+)-5&8-G!_0.*$G! i!O-*<5-.G!RXX^F9!?&!D(&'+(!3+%'(&G!&*%(.ce it is “an institution and not just a knowledge”:!

“@)4%*+4,+,&"2%&4*&)'*,+"*+&4*+%raction with the material world. […]&@)4%*+4,+,&"2%&%*8"8%;& 4*&"&)'*+4*/'/,&;%#"te and interact with each other. […] @)4%*+4,+,O&+"N%*&4*;4R4;/"$$7O&"2%& *'+& J/2%& 2"+4'*"$4+4es at work. […] @)4%*+4,+,& )'0%& (2'0&;4((%2%*+& 4*,+4+/+4'*"$& "*;& ,')4"$& backgrounds. […] @)4%*+4,+,&"2%&)'*,+"*+$7&+274*8&+'&/*4(7&+I%42&J2'J',"$,”<&1^%,+2%O&VZZXO& JJ<&T–Vd5& =2.C(+&(/0G!&*%(.*(!6+2);*(&!.(3!(.'%'%(&!3$%*$!.(()!'2!,(!&2*%-/%1()!-.)!&25('%5(&!*$-.4(! '$(!&2*%2(*2.25%*!32+/)9!:'!(.-*'&!'$(!&2*%-/!A_-3!i!B++0G!RXXHF9!! ?4!<0%3#)90"+39!E';)%()!7+25!'$%&!6(+&6(*'%C(G!'$(!*;++(.'!*2.&(.&;&!2.!*/%5-'(!*$-.4(!$-)! '2!,(!6-'%(.'/0!,;%/'9!?&!)(&*+%,()!,0!>)3-+)&G!'$%&!%.C2/C()!-!/-+4(!*255;.%'0!27!+(&(-+*$(+&G! “political and scientific institutionsG! 2,&(+C-'%2.! .('32+8&G! -.)! &*%(.'%7%*! 6+-*'%*(! s3$%*$t! (C2/C()!'24('$(+!2C(+!&(C(+-/!*(.';+%(&!'2!*;/5%.-'(!%.!'$(!4/2,-/!8.23/()4(!%.7+-&'+;*';+(! we have today”:!

“Our climate knowledge is provisional and imperfect. Yet it is real, and it is strong, becau,%& 4+&4,&,/JJ'2+%;&#7&"&8$'#"$&4*(2",+2/)+/2%&#/4$+&'*&'$;O&2'#/,+&'#,%2R4*8&,7,+%0,&"*;&2%(4*%;& predictive models, on extensive simulation experiments and model inter comparisons” 1B;H"2;,O&VZTZO&J<&[cU5&

R[! L;5(+%*-/!*%+*;/-'%2.!52)(/&!$-C(!6/-0()!-!5-<2+!+2/(G!7%+&'!'2!,;%/)!'$%&!*2.&(.&;&!2.!'$(! *-;&(&! 27! */%5-'(! *$-.4(! Ak;%//(52'G! RXX\F! -.)! .23! '2! 6+2C%)(! %.6;'&! +(4-+)%.4! '$(! *2.&(S;(.*(&!27!'$(!6$(.25(.-9!E#E!-+(!*2.*(+.()!3%'$!'$(&(!&*%(.'%7%*!*2.*/;&%2.&!2.!'$(! 3-0!3(!&((G!-.)!3(!/%C(!%.!'$(!*2.'(562+-+0!32+/)9!#$(0!)(7(.)!'$(!$062'$(&%&!'$-'!+(&;/'&! 2.! */%5-'(! *$-.4(! 5-0! $-C(! $;4(! *2.&(S;(.*(&! -.)! &$2;/)! %.);*(! -! +(.(3-/! 27! 2;+! +(6+(&(.'-'%2.&! -.)! -*'%2.&! A(949! A?5%/'2.! ('! -/9G! RX"Tp! ](-;! i! _-++è+(G! RX"Tp! I-$-.! i! k;%//(52'G!RX"TFF9!

@"',0$%,&)%&,3$/#:.7+-&'+;*';+(&G!-&!&0&'(5&G!$-C(!,((.!-!6+%C%/(4()!+(&(-+*$!'26%*!72+!E#E\_!72+! -! /2.4! '%5(! A]/28G! L-8-12+-G! i! O%.'$(+(%8G! RX"[p! =2;'-+)G! RXXRp! W;4$(&G! "UUQp! J-0.'1! i! W;4$(&G! "U^^p! J;572+)! i! O%..(+G! RX"XF9! Making visible what is usually only “part of the background”, revealing critical connections (large systems in the making or consequences of incidents), STS see infrastructure as a “fundamentally relational concept” AE'-+G! "UUUF9! >)3-+)&G! -7'(+! =-&'(//&G! defines infrastructures as “those systems without which contemporary societies cannot function” A=-&'(//&G! "UU[p! >)3-+)&G! RXXQF9! :.)(()G! %.7+-&'+;*';+(&!-+(!-'!'$(!%.'(+&(*'%2.!27!5;/'%6/(!+(/-'%2.&$%6&!'$-'!&'+;*';+(!-!*2//(*'%C(9!#$(0! are the wires, tracks, pipes, which physically “binds us together” A_-'2;+G! RXXTG! 69! "^UF9! Infrastructures are made out of “hard” components –!27!&'((/!-.)!*2.*+('(!–!,;'!-/&2!27!&27'(+! (/(5(.'&! -52.4! 3$%*$! (.(+40G! %.72+5-'%2.! -.)! $;5-.N+(/-'%2.&$%6&9! O(! -+(! )(&*+%,%.4! '$(5G! 72//23%.4! '$(! E#E! '+-)%'%2.G! -&! *256/(Z! &2*%2'(*$.%*-/! &0&'(5&! Ak;(4;(.G! n-++%4(G! _(! =2;+-.'G!i!D-/2S;(N](+4(&G!RX"\FY!!

“The word “infrastructure” itself very often refers to the physical ",J%)+&1+I%&I"2;H"2%5& whereas critical infrastructures are complex sociotechnical. […] As historians, sociologists, "*;& "*+I2'J'$'84,+,& '(& +%)I*'$'87& 4*)2%",4*8$7& 2%)'8*4M%O& "$$& 4*(2",+2/)+/2%,& "2%& 4*& (")+& ,')4'P+%)I*4)"$& 4*& *"+/2%<& D'+& '*$7& I"2;H"2%& #/+& '28"*4M"+4'*,O& ,')4"$$7P)'00/*4)"+%;& #")N82'/*;&N*'H$%;8%O&8%*%2"$&"))%J+"*)%&"*;&2%$4"*)%O&"*;&*%"2P/#4f/4+'/,&"))%,,4#4$4+7& "2%&2%f/42%;&('2&"&,7,+%0&+'&#%&"*&4*(2",+2/)+/2%<” 1B;H"2;,O&VZZc5<&& E';)0%.4!%.7+-&'+;*';+(G!3(!S;(&'%2.!'$(!+(/-'%2.&$%6&!'2!'$(!'(*$.2/240!'$(0!+(/0!2.p!'2!'$(! -+(-&!'$(0!&(+C(p!'2!'$(!&2*%-/!-.)!(*2.25%*!%.'(+-*'%2.&!'$(0!(.-,/(p!'2!623(+!,-/-.*(!'$(0! +(7/(*'G!'$(!&'-.)-+)&!'$(0!(5,2)0G!'$(!*2.C(.'%2.&!'$(0!+(/0!2.G!('*9!AE'-+G!"UUUp!O%..(+G! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

\_{!Among the most famous works on infrastructures, we find researches on “large technical systems”!A_#EFG!%.%'%-'()!,0!W;4;(&!A=2;'-+)G!} RXXRp!W;4$(&G!"UUQp!J-0.'1!i!W;4$(&G!"U^^F. Alain Gras translated this notion in France with the term “macrosystème technique” Ak+-&G! "UUQF. “The idea of large technical systems focuses attention on growth around a technological core. By contrast, infrastructures -+(!.2'! 5(+(/0!/-+4(!&0&'(5&G!,;'!&2*%2'(*$.%*al institutions”A>)3-+)&G!RXXQF9!_#E!'(.)!'2!)(C(/26!-/2.4!-!*(+'-%.!6-''(+.G!72//23%.4! -!6-'$3-0! visible “only on historical scales” and their development relies on key actors named “systemNbuilders” who, at a certain point, “organize (Z%&'%.4!62&&%,%/%'ies into a complete system with a vision that must be simultaneously social and technical”.!