Challenges of agricultural production and food security in Africa

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uxr reo NATIONS

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR AFRICA

CHALLENGES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND FOOD SECURITY IN AFRICA

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(Paper presented by SeA Representatives to the

Africa Leadership Forum Conference 0n Challenges of Agricultural Production and Food Security)

Ota, Nigeria, July 27 to 29, 1989

Addis Ababa July 1989

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INTRODUCTION

Although the tera "food security" came into widespread use only

recently, the United Nations Economic Coa.1saion for Africa (ECA) has, for a long time, been in the forefront of organizations drawing attention to the need to ensure that all Africans have access at all times to the minimum quantities of food necessary to lead an active and healthy life. For

example, the attainment of food security was one of the major objectives of the Lagos Plan of Action (LPA). Specifically, the document called for Member States tJ ~dke urgent steps to adopt cuherent national fuvd security

policies. This objective has since been incorporated into other documents w:th which the SeA has been ass0c~ated such as Africa's Pri0rity Prugramme for Economic Recovery (APPER) and the United Nations Programme of Action for African Economic Recovery and Development (UNPAAERD). More recently, ECA's African Alternative Framework to Structural Adjustment Programmes (AAFSAP) for Socia-Economic Recovery and Transformation identified the attainment of regional food security as the first priority area for collective

self-reliance of Africa.

The Concept of Food Security

In the past, the concept of food security was left undefined, perhaps by default, since the notion of food security, though not new, had defied

solutions. More recently, however, the concept of food security is

generally accepted as entailing not only food availability through domestic production, storage and or trsde, but slso, and perhaps more importantly, food access through home production, purchase in the market, or food transfers.

*

Paper presented by ECA representatives to,the Africa Leadership Forum Conference on Challenges of Agricultural Prodnction and Food Security held in Ota, Nigeria, July 27 to 29, 1989.

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The C0mm:ttee un W0rld Fuud Security has defined the three specific

a~ms of Food Security (FAO, 1983) as:

1. Ensuring adequate production of food;

2. Maximizing the stability of food supplies; and

3. Ensuring access to food particularly on the part of those in greatest need.

Underlying this new concept of food security are two assumptions, not in themselves new, but until recently, not given sufficient attention by policy makers :n Afr~can c0untries. These assumpt~unsare that:

1. A d~st~nc~~0n mllst ~e made between permanent and tempDrary fJ0d insecurity; and

2. Famine, hunger, and malnutrition sre, in most csses, as much s problem of poverty as of shortage of food supplies.

Temporary food ~nsecurity ~s the result of short-term fluctuations in production brought about by fluctuations in household incomes, food

consumption, and in the availability of food at the national and global levels. Temporary food insecurity is thus a manifestation of temporary lack of access to sufficient food and can therefore be eliminated or drastically reduced by corrective stocking policies. Because enough supplies of food to go around has traditionally been available at the global level, the problem of temporary food insecurity in the African context must be seen largely as one of ability to buy and the important variables here are the magnitude of instability in international prices and the average levela of real incomes prevailing in African economies.

Permanent on atructural food insecurity represents a state of continous inadequate access to food and is due to a long term structural deficit in production and chronic inadequacy of purchasing power,

A recent st~dv by SeA (1987) of on-going food security programmes "n Africa concludes that the majority of international donor agencies which have ass"sted develop"ng countries in the implementation of food security programmes and projects in the past, have been preoccupied mainly with the elimination of temporary food insecurity.

National food security progra..es in Africa can be grouped under one of the following five headings:

I. Programmes aimed at the improvement of food supplies in emergencies;

2. Measures to improve internal marketing and distribution networks and cheir funct:vn~ng;

3. Measures tv increase natiunal preparedness;

4. Reduction of pre- and poat-harvest food losses;

5. Advisory services for ass~stance to, and improvement in food security planning and programming.

At the sub-regional and regional levels current food security projects include advisory services to the Inter-State CO&mittee on Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) and the organisation of a sub-regional Early Warning

System accompanied by joint efforts in the reduction of food losses snd the improvement of post-harvest technologies in the countries of the Southern African Development Coordination Conference (SADCC). The Government of Australia also undertook the identification of training needs in the area of

food security in fourteen African countries during 1983 and 1984.

A number of other sub-regional groupings have proposed the initiation of common projects or programmes in the field of food security. These are the Economic Community of the Great Lakes Countries (CEPGL), the Economic

Community of West African States (ECOWAS). the Preferential Trade Area of Eastern and Southern African Countries (PTA), and the Inter-govern.ental Association Against Drought and Desertification (IGADD).

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Similarly, the folluw:ng pul:tical groupings, wh~ch incude a certain number of African countries, have pruposed, or set up cummittees to discuss, common activities related to food security: the Arab Organisation for

~grLculturalDevelopment (~OAD) which includes Egypt, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Tunisia in Africa; the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) which includes Algeria, Burkina Faao, Cameroon, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Gaabia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Libya, Mali, Mauritania,

Morocco, Niger, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan, Tunisia and Uganda from Africa; as well as the Coordination Bureau for the Non-Aligned movement which includes 45 African countries. Most recently the adoption of a common food strstegy has been proposed within the framework of the Central African Customs and Economic Union (UDEAC) which covers Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cungo and Gabon.

In addction to the action programmes and projects refered to abuve, it should also be mentioned that there are also research programmes and

projects in progress in Africa variously funded and executed mainly by universities or similar bodies, generally from outside Africa, as well as the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Thus Michigan State University is engaged in a programme of research dealing directly with the issue of food security in Africa financed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and has instituted specific projects in Senegal, Rwanda, Somalia, Mali and Zimbabwe. Similarly the Federal

Republic of Germany, through its executing agency GTZ, is at present engaged in a comprehensive grain marketing and food security study for the Sahelian

Nstional resources devoted to the improvement of food security by member Ststes have been, and continue to be, on the whole minimal by comparison with external aid for this purpose. Apsrt from a very small number of exceptions like the case of Tanzania, which has allocated, since 1979, a total of Tsh. 30.9 million to its national food security progra. .es, or Nigeria which has established a unilateral trust fund for food security, most African countries have made no Bore than token contributions, generally in the form of personnel and logistical support, to their programmes in this priority field.

~xterndl ass:stance tv enable cvuntries tv ~mplement their food secur~ty

programmes has been, and ~s being provided by a large number of

internat~onalaid agencies. Funding ~s both multilateral and bilateral.

Prominent among internat~onal agencies active in the field of food security is the FAO which, through its Food Assistance Security Scheme (FSAS), as well as executing a number of food security projects, has been a catalyst

for many more through the reports of its misaions despatched to over 25 countries in Africa to study their food security needs.

The Economic Commission for Africa is also active in this field at the sub-regional level and is currently executing five bilaterally funded projects. Four projects, funded by the Federal Republic of Germany (2), Algerca (1) and Nigeria (1); through the Un~ted Nat~ons Trust Fund for African Development, are assisting countries in the Great Lakes Area and in Central Africa and West Africa tv reduce post-harvest food lusses; and ~n

the case of the Great Lakes Area, to harmonize their food security

progra. .es; the fifth, funded by Belgium and run in collaboration with the International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (ICIPE), is diffusing some of the Centre's biological methods of insect control for the red~ction of both pre- and post-harvest food losses in Eastern and Central Africa.

Food Security, Famine and Poverty

It is now generally accepted that the problem of food insecurity is not just about food alone but also about the general problem of poverty and unequal distribution of purchasing power among and within regions and

nations. Famine, for example, represents the most severe form of temporary food insecurity manifesting itself in a sudden colapse of food consumption and dramatic increase in the incidence of diseases and death.

Because famine is caused by a variety of factors including crop

failures, natural calamities such as wars, floods, and sometimes, high food prices, it often occurs without substantial reduction in food availability per head or even in the face of food exportation from the affected country or region.

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A rev~ew 0f past fam~nes, food scar~:ties and shurtages w0uld alune, if nut able tu measure the degree uf risK to which countries ur areas are expused, certainly pin-puint the areas where there is the greatest risk.

The last exhaustive survey uf famines was made at the end uf the nineteenth century. The uldest recorded famine dates from about 5000 years ago and information on it was carved on the Stele of Famine found at the first Nile cataract in Egypt. Ancient faaines are recorded for Egypt and Ethiopia; the latter country is ssid to have experienced about 10 major famines each

century. Famines are also known to be a recurrent feature in the arid and semi-arid zones uf Africs. Kenya is said to hsve experienced 15 famines and nuteworthy fuod shurtages between 1879 and 1979, which served as reference years for many people interviewed during a census conducted in 1979. Over the last 35 years, famines have uccurr~d in the Republic uf Congu

(immediately fullowing ;ndependenceJ, in Nigeria between 1967 and 1969, in the Sahel ian zune where several hundred thousand peuple died between 1965 and 1974, and in Ethiopia in 1974 costing lives snd bringing about profound political changes (Leibenstein, 1982). A considerable number of famines are remembered in Rwandan oral history. The 1984 famine in Ethiopia is too recent to need any further mention.

11. AN ASSESSMENT OF THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN AFRICA

Periudlc but regular cuntinent-wide consumption surveys represent an ideal way of assessing the food security situatIon in Africa. However, taking Into consideration both logistic and cost considerations, these kinds of surveys appear unfeasibile at the present time. Alternative ways of measuring the level of food insecurity in the continent must therefore be used.

In the short- and medium-term, the measurement of food insecurity in Africa has to take the variability of staple food production, the degree of preparedness of countries to foresee and cope with a widespread and acute food shortage and their ability to obtain access to commercial food grain stocks on the world market into consideration.

All ~a~ly attempts tv :mpr0ve fvud secur:ty have c0ncentrat~d vn stJcking and ~m?0rt pollc:es fur f')0d gralns, pr~ncipal1y cereals (and predominantly wheat) and those foodstuffs have been the principal component of emergency aid. It must, however, be recognised (and is increasingly so recognised) that, for several reasons it is not appropriate to limit the foodstuffs considered in the case of most African countries, to cereals, or even to grains in general. The cereal portion of the staple diet in most African countries is not as iaportant as it is in Asia, for exaaple. In some countries in sub-Saharan Africa the ceresl portion of the diet is so low as to make assessment of the food situation based on cereals slone

entirely inadequate. To take an example, the proportion of cereals in total food consumption in Zaire for the period 1979-1981 was 14.5 per cent. The proportion of each of the main groups of foodstuffs entering into the

average d~et vf a number vf selected African countries is shvwu in Table 1.

The information in the table clearly suggests that any assessment of food :nsecurlty in Africa must take ~ntv account fOuts and tubers, nuts and oil seeds and fruits (which incudes plantains) and in certain countries even alcoholic beverages.

Although it might be claimed that food insecurity is properly measured by a cons~deration uf consumption patterns, and that consumption could be taken as national production plus net imports taking into account any

changes in stock level, in practice it is extremely difficult to obtain all the necessary data for a sufficiently recent time series to be consitituted.

Furthermore, data on carry-over stocks is difficult to come by in most developing countries. Valdes and Konandreaa' (1981) study of consumption instability in 24 developing countries over the period 1961-1976 has shown that there is a high poaitive coefficient of correlation between total staple food production and consuaption. This is to be expected if, in general, imports are insufficient to cover production shorfslls. This is

particularly true for sub-Saharan Africa, where fluctuations in staple food consumption closely follow the fluctuations of domestic staple food

production.

Any assessment of the food security situation in Africa should therefore be informed by this consideration.

I - Canposition of Food ~,in calorie _equivalen~for 20 Afr:iam coontriell, 1979-1981

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~it.

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_:;~

Average _~!!l' share :In total _~

~ ^.0'1 Fish Oils

lbot8 Nuts ^', _Meats

AlCIohol.i ;' 0=reals and and Pulses :md 'legeti.bles Fru.its and E\l98 ^and Milk ^and _beverage'

tuberS.;

ha!W

^{oilseeds offals} Seafood fats

I

" ,:'Ii ·,t4

56.8 2.2" 11.1<l 2.0 0.2 . 1.0 3.6 2.0 0." 0.2 6.0 13.1 i J ,< 0.2

., 38.8 ^33.3j:-, ~i2 ^{2.0 8.4 K,O.2 6.8 2.3 0.2 1.2 1.0 3.3}

I ^-,

2~ .~.

J':;'0.9

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34.6 37 .:U: \ 0.1;· 2.7 6.2 2.1 2.2 0.1 0.7 _O.~ 10.9 1.2

6'~') ^;...^{-) ttl.'}

III 53.1 1. ,_ .. ,: 9.f:- 7.9 0.1 l£C'0.9 0.9 6.0 0.1 0.1 8.9 9.2

.-

_2.0

" ,.-i I)';

J;' '1.1 ^;

In 32.3 21.1,·iC

3.f\:

3.8 6.6 9.3 3.3 0.1 ^> 0.6 0.7 ' 8.7 5.4

52.0·i\> ^{JJ" -, I,}

.*.R.

^15.9 _{,- "'} ^{1~6 0.9 11. 1 ) I 0.5 5.0. 4.1}

o _{r '} P

^{0.5 0.3' ' 6.1 1.8}

4:S

^{J ' :.}

15.2 49.8 ' 1.0 3.B :;.___ 0.5 7.5 2.0 0.1, 2.3 0.8 10.2 2.2

i \ ,.

69.3 2.4 _3-'~ 8.2 5.2 .' 0.8 1.9 1.4 0.2 0.8 0.6 3.1 2.6

32.8 36.7' 2.* 0.1 3.8

,f,

^1.1 8.4 2.2 0.,2 2.8 0.3 _6.6._ 1.3

i,'I

~~ ^{. 0.7}

52.6 9.:]: lQ.,,~ 5.1 1.1

,.

2.5 4.7 0.1 0.1 5.1 5.8 ~.2

lear 60.3 17.2, _{4~6..: "} 1.6 1.0 . 0.7 3.6 5.6 0.2 0.4 0.4 3.2 1.0

73.5 2.5 . 2.$ 2.2 4.6 0.5 0.1 4.2 0.1 0.6 2.3 5.5 0.5

.que 34.0 39.5

6.j

2.1 2.1 0.5 1.6 1.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 10.2 0.6

42.2 25.4, 4.5 2.9 ^{,j.~-- 1} 1.1 ' 2.3 1.9 0.3 1.2 0.9 11.7 2. 1

41~9ⁱ

,

10.4 _'.,. 0.7 17.2 1.0 ^; 0.8 10.0 1.1 0.0

-

^{0.8 1.3 14.7}

6~6

50.9 1.1

-

^{1.3 ,.}. 0.2} 3.1 10.5 0.1 0.2 16.7 6.1

.. --io:s'

_1~0

^•

51.7 1.8 1.7 2.9 2.6 5.2 0.2 0.1 5.6 15.5 " 1.

o

36.5 r: !~' 2.7 4.0 0.7 0.8 2.1 0.1 1.0 0.2 6.1 ^:'':' 2.7

39.7 ^'"

;'.;:'2.

9' "

^{.!~.. .::}

30.0 18.5 _{, {,} 9.9 4.1 ^" 0.7 19.7 2.3

0:'

^{1.3 2.5 1.6 ' S. ;:}

14.5 58.4 ',1~

r

1.6 4.6 1.,5 6.2 1.8 0 0.6 0.1 7.7 1 r-

.~

~'..,;: ..^{' ,}

"~~f~i:Yt;

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00, 1984. Food Balance ~~ ^1979-81 Average,Stat.18Ucs Qivision, FNJ, R:Itle.

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The ^ffi0St recent assessment vf the f0vd supply situatiJn ~n sub-Saharan Afr:ca (FAO, 1^089), reveals that aggregate productoon of cereals on the 45 developing countries of sub-Saharan Africa was a record 58 million tons, some 30 percent higher than in 1987 and above the long-term trend. This Was due to guud harvests in must countries including above average crops in all sahel ian countries, with record outputs in many of them.

However, notewithstanding this substantial iaproveaent in cereals harvests in 1988, all of the 45 countries of sub-saharan Africa will

continue to import cereals, mostly wheat and rice. The FAO estimates that the aggregate cereal import requirements of these countries in 1988/89 is 8.2 million tons, about 7 per cent less than their actual imports of the previous year (table 2). The fall in the import requuirements was most

dramat~c ~n Eas~ern Afrlca, and to a less0n extent :n S0uthern, Western and Central Africa on that order.

Over 50 per cent of the aggregate import needs of these countries will come from commercial purchases. Most of the rest will be covered by food aid with s large part of this going to the seven countries considered to be facing continued food emergencies - Angola, Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Seerra Leone, Somalia and Swaziland.

The FAO assessment concludes that cereal prices will remain relatively high (in mid-April wheat and maize prices were 37 and 20 per cent

respectively higher than their 1988 levels) and that, although the region's import needs will be less than in 1988, several African countries will be seriously affected by the higher prices of most cereals in the international market. FAO's latest forecast is that the cereals import bill of the 45 countries of sub-Saharan Africa in 1989 will rise about 40 per cent to about US$1,OOO million, even though the tonnage imported will be lower. The fact

that these escalating import costs will come at a time when many of the African countries are facing growing external debt burdens, higher interest

rates, deteriorating foreign exchange reserves, and restrictions on iaports as part of Government austerity and structural adjustment programmes,

suggest that many African countries will not be able to acquire the cereal imports they require. This is bound to lead to further deterioration in the food insecurity situation in the continent.

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TABLE CEREALI~TSANJF"CXX)AID REQUIREt-ENT5IN Sl...6-SAHARAN AFRICA 1988/89 CR 1!189 (IN THClUSAf\I) TONS) J!188 Cereel

Past .mpartsY

P~"i,"

foe 1"'/IlY er " "

~

productHln 1/

(Keep. Cereal Import pcaiticn A,~..of 1~a7/88or 1911B Aonct- Food aid tiona!

Commer- I Food IIld R~lonJ Market- average Average Cereal pated requirement! local

Country 'og ^{of foe , 01 Import commer- pur- cia!}

y'M Total peevrcua prevrcua whIch: requr- cial 01 chase imports of

Syean ') yean Total icommer- rementa Imports Total ...hich: reqvrre- already Pled- which:

ctet

"/

^excep-_tlonel ^menls _contracted^{made or}

^,

_2/

..

^rec.d

50rar

E-.mAtrlc. 22 158 IJ6 , 007 2 'J6

.. ^,

^{1 977 I}_I

.. ^,

^1'10

_'"

^{1'8 zas 1 219}

_'"

Bw"lIldi .kil.lMI. 491

'" ,.

"

¹¹

"

¹⁶

^,

^{1 2 , )}

CDmOfOl Jan./Dee. 16 148 40 42

"

^{J9 n}

,

^{) }} 2

Djibouti Jan./Dee. . · ^{60 60}

" " "

^{) }}

^{, " ,}

Ethiopia Jllln.JDee. 6 BID 129 1 04' 1m ^IS} '4U SO 4'U

,/

¹⁹⁰

_"

^{"2 llB}

KWI,.

^{Jul·/bI. J 474 129 )4' 199 ss ~6U 110 ISO 9J "0 109}

R... Jul./l.n. Z7b 92

"

^{20 )} n 12 is 2 , , 2}

S.,cnall•• Jan.lDec. . ·

, , , ,

7 1

Somali. .lu1./.iMI.

'"

^{124 !aU zze bl}

'" '"

^{lL3 OJ}

^{" "}

^{In 1"}

,-

_T...zanl. ^Nov./Oct._.boe/Mey ^{5 411}_{3 467} ^2Ul_1U4

_'"

_{HU 112}^{>4, is}₁₆ ⁶⁰⁰_B9 ^6U₄₂ ^{>4U 1U0}

_{'" "}

"

^{1U zz}

^0'

^su

""""'.

^{Jan./Dee. 1 598 14&}

"

^{27 18 7 11 · · 18}

"

5IIuttwrnAfra

....

^{126 19BJ 1 . ., 818 Z 183 741 1 442 827 26 "'7 1 "6}

_'"

Angol. '>1 Apr.IMar. m 100 )OB '09 199

'"

^{IUS a» 141 ·}

,,,

_1" ^1';)

SoLMan&. JuI·/Jul. 97 5/U

'"

^{2U1 1" US 110}

"

^{· ·}

"

^{20 16}

L_tho June/Mily

'" '"

^{1" lS, 1>4 109}

"

^{zs · · 70 '0 1U}

-.-~~ JIIn.lDec. 1 478 101 178 91 ,J 117 47 70 1

"

²²

Mlllawi':1/ Apr./Mar. 1 '09 110

"

^us

"

^{'1.41 25 211 are · JJ ,OJ 164}

M...ritiul .kI1./Jul. 10 res

'"

^{16' 111 161 140 27 112}

^"

^II

Mozarntlique MaylApr.

'"

^{97 '00}

'" '" ^'"

^{461 · bl8 4'4}

Swaziland May/Apr. rre llU >4

"

^JJ

"

⁾⁰

, ,

!2 18

,

Zambia MaylApr. 1 748

'"

^{16l. . 1U2}

^"

¹²

"

^{1 2U 127 IUS}

Zimbabwe'!../ Apr./Mar. 3 OOZ 142 17> IU' es 104

"

^is

^'"

^{ee .}

...mAfrlCllBurkinaSahelian ccontrreeFesc Nov./Oct. 24691, 002'2 084 12214>J46

•

1

'" "0

1" ^{HOI1 "1}17> ^{2 9169lB}rzs ^{) 12S1 199}llO ^{2 652}

'" '"

^{n2 Zl· 12912> 7>712U >8ll}

'"

¹⁵⁶¹⁰⁴

'" "

^{· 10 20 46}

,

CapeVarlOle Jan.lDee.

"

²⁰⁴

"

⁶⁰

^,

^5/

^{, "}

^{47 2}

Chad Nov./Oct. B2B 14' III Bl 4' 40 20 10 20 22 10

CAmbi. Oct./5I:Ipt. 110 170 '1 71 ss

"

^-o

"

^{10 16 s}

Gui....-Billtlau Jan./Dee. 117 127 so '1 42 46 27 19 . II 1

Mali Nov./Oct. 2 »e

'"

¹⁹⁴

"

^{40 70 >0 20 !a}

^,

^zo

"

Mauritania Nov./Oet. 190

'"

^{m 1" ll1 116}

^""

^ee

^"

⁴¹

^"

^rs

N(9IIr Oct./5I:Ipt. 'l.4ZZ 1>4 1" 144 91 eo 45

"

^>0

^,

¹⁷

^,

Seneg.1 Nov./Oct.

.. ^,

¹⁰⁰

_{". '"}

^{)B1 565 .:.55 110 19 ee l>}

Coaltal e:ountries is

'"

^{112 19lJ 1'l.4U 1}

'"

^{2016 1m m 2J}

^,

^{,n 223}

"

Benin JBn./Dec. ^{)",8 12",}

'"

^{'4 eo 15 I}

0'

^{B re 12}

Coted'Ivcire JuJ./NJ.

,

0>, iI,

'"

^{"1 1<9~ >00 i 498 s In}

,

1

Ghon. De:t'/Sept.

'"

^{127 225}

'"

^{J " J90 11' 15}

,

" "

Gull1ea Jan./Dee. 607 92 109

'"

^{2JO 211 1"}

"

¹⁰

"

⁷

Liberia Jan./Dee:. rae

"

^{Wi< ss}

^"

^{120 70 ID}

^{• "}

Ni98ria Jul./Jun. 11 OJ> !11 1

,,, ", _'"

^{70U 70D 40U .}

Sierra Leone Jlm.!Dee. )J"

"

^{1" J17}

"

^1&0

" "

²¹

^"

^re

Togo Jan.lDee. '90 13~ lao lOb

"

^lU

" , ,

"

¹⁶

^,

CentralAftic.

Z ' " 107

'"

^{110' 6>0 786 634 152 · 6 m m}

..

Cameroon Jul·IJ\.rl. ~16 lU> m LO~ 209 10>

'"'

^.

^,

¹²⁴

Cent.Afr.Rep. Sept./Aug

'"

^llJ

..

^4U

_"

^{4' J6}

^,

^·

^{, ,}

C"""" ^{JuI./JlX1. 10 11'} 10' ^lUI

"

^{lUI 90}

" ^"

^{15 14}

Equ.t.Quinea Jan./Dee.

, ,

I

, , ,

1 1

G._

Jan./Dee.

,

" " " ^"

^{b2 b2 . · 2}

SaoTome JuJ. 1.Jun. · ^{l }} 19

,

10

, , , ,

Zaire .»n./Dec. 1091 109 J6' "U 221 "0 23S US 9U 106

"

TOTAL. sa⁰⁷⁶ 127 ID)8.1 8 78~ • 86' 8 III 4 494 ) 677 1IDJ

'"

^{1 862 , 291 1 7D}

...: Total, computed from unrounded data.

1/ Itlcll.ldingrice in milled aquiVilent.

!I ^rAQtl.IllIincludedaUpledges~portedtothe GIEWS, whether lorfr~edi,tribullOI\ or marw.et ule. l-Iowever, there may be some cues where governments

«aunt j(lme food aid received for market sale against commercial Import requirements.

)1£.cludll'lgre_exports.

7i1 1nl::h.IOlngrefugee needs of 140 QUU tons.

~I Country no.... in its 1989190 marketing year.

GlEWS;~l-.l""rictl Repol't, April 19B9

•

T~e lvnger term prospects vf foud security in the continent are nut any better. The FAO (1986) has estimated that if present trends c0ntinue, by the year 2010 f00d imp0rts int0 Africa w0uld cost U5$28.5 thousand milli0n at constant prices cvmpared to agricultural export earnings of. at most, U5$12 th0usand million. The cereals gap alone w0uld grow to 100 million tonnes, of which 58 million tonnes would be in sub-Saharan Africa. No

plausible combination of commercial food imports and food aid could meet the deficits of the low-income countries of sub-Saharan Africa at that horizon.

The FAO als0 concludes that a continuation of current trends would place many countries 0n the edge 0f survival, even if they were pr0vided with substantial internati0nal support. Although 0ther f00d surplus c0untries c0uld pr0duce sufficient to meet the deficits foreseen if present trends

pers~st. the vulume vf f00d impurts and fuud aid necesssary would exceed the existing, and pr0bably the f0reseeable, transp0rt and distributi0n

f^{a c} Lli t ^{L e s o} f ^{n a n}y Af ^r i^{c a n c o u n t r} i ^{e s ,}

The scenario described above suggesta that the challenges of

agricultural production and food security in Africa are indeed enormous and that African leadership will be called upon to design and implement some difficult but imaginative p0licy ch0ices if the continent is to be

emancipated fr0m the throes of hunger, p0verty, and famine. In the rest 0f this rep0rt, we describe some of the challenges that would confront African leadership with regards: increased food and agricultural production;

sustaining pr0duction through more effective resource management and

ensuring accessibility to food through better marketing and trade policies.

Ill. THE FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION CHALLENGE

Africa, with the exception of a relatively few countries, could be said to be currenty faced with one of the greatest economic development calamity of the century. Even the great world economic depresaion of the 1930s pales into insignificance when compared to the current economic crisis facing the continent.

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Of the 39 cuuntrces l:sted by the World Bank as be:ng the puurest

cuuntr:es :n the world :n 1988, 24 are in Africa (Wurld Bank, 1988). One uf the majur reasuns why many uf these continue to remain poor is because they have been unable tu cope with the fOud and agriculture demands uf their

rapidly increasing pupulatiuns. During the current decade, agricultural production in Africa rose by less than 2 percent per annum and food

production per capita was generally below what it was at the beginning of the decade. As population presaures have increased, the amount of arable land per capita in the continent has decreased, limiting fallow periods and the possibilities of increasing production through extensive cultivation as was done in the past.

Most of the African countries are also faced with the double-edged tragedy of e:,h~r feed~ng their pupulatiun or paying their debts. By way of inherited production and consumption structures, many of these countries have been c0nd~tr0ned tv emphas~ze the production 0f raw mater:als wh:le

engaging in "jet age consumption habits" requiring the generation of new investmenta which depend on the availability of financial resources in

foreign currencies for the purchase of machinery and processed raw materials for which the continent does not have a comparative advantage. What

is

worse, as population pressures have increased, imported foodstuffs have joined the list of essential import items of the continent even though their prices continue to increase and money to buy them harder to obtain.

In Section I of the report we adopted the broad definition of food security which requires that national food security should not be defined simply as being synanimous with national fuud self-sufficiency but as involving both availability and access to food. It is, nonetheless, very clear that an important element in the attainment of national food security as defined in this report is food self-sufficiency and agricultural

development. A nation's poor and hungry people are unlikely to have access to enough food throughout the year to lead an active and healthy live unless they produce their own food in adequate amounts. Neither would their

poverty and hunger be eliminated in the absence of agricultural and rural development which is widely shared by everyone.

~'e cCOn0meC rJmme,seJn fur ~fr:ca (1989) believes that the structural

~hd[~C~er~s~~~s ~dentif:able w~th the pattern 0f production, consumption and exchange)F the African eCunumy constitute the most fundamental causes uf

,ts under-develupment and retrugressiun. These characteristics, uf course, uwe theer uregins t u the culunial administration uf Western Eurupean

Cuuntries SUch as the United Kingdom, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Federal Republic of Germany, Portugal and Spain and are at the heart of Africa's contemporary food security criaia.

Most African economies are still largely agrarian in structure and uutluuk. Because food and agricultural production form the principal activ:ty in these economies, both in terms of their contribution to the occupational distribution of the labour force and in terms of their

?roportiunate cuntributiun to Gross ~ational Product (GNP), the attainment of sustainable food security In Africa must be anchored around a planned

1lt~r'dt~0n J! the present structure 0f production and emplvyment so that more food is produced by the right people employing the agricultural technologies most appropriate and suited to their needs and circumstances and, in so doing, enhancing employment opportunities and the overall ability of the poor people of the country to buy food. This is a formidable (ood and agricultural production challenge for attaining food security in the continent wh:ch well involve the development of appropriate technologies through the conduct of relevant agricultural research and better access to factors of production by all rural groups but particularly peasants.

Given the agrarian nature of African economies, the essential

precondition fvr overall social and economic growth In the continent is a dynamized agricultural sector brought about by a steady increase in

agricultural productivity resulting fro. technological change. For African countries to get out of the "food and debt" trap they have now fallen into, domestic food production must increase so as to feed the growing population and export production must rise to generate the necessary foreign exchange to payoff the continent's debt and meet essential import needs. Both of these developments will require sgricultural research to generate new technologies that will permit the improved level8 of crops and livestock production needed to dynamize the agricultural 8ector.

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Agr:cultural research can be s:mply 1ef~ned ^{39 dO} 0rgan~zed

:nvestigation undertaken to discover new and improved methods of production which result In increased productivity and efficiency. Agricultural

research can be grouped basically into two types: basic and applied. Basic agricultural research seeks to develop new and fundamental knowledge that can be applied to solve real agricultural problem. while applied research utilizes the new technologies on offer to solve practical fara problems while adapting them to various conditions and circumstances.

A major FAO (1985) study has shown that, despite its present

predicament, the potential for substntial increases in agricultural output growth in Africa is substantial even with the existing low input levels that

preva~ls rn the c0nt:nent not tu talk of :ncreases in production that could be achieved if the majority of the continent's farmers can be assisted to move to higher levels of input use.

All available evidence suggest that African far.ers are achieving yield performance for their principal crops that are far below levela that have been demonstrated to be achievable at the research centres (Abalu, 19S7).

Technical scientists have identified low plant populations, insufficient fertilizer use, poor control of weeds, and non-availability of suitable varieties as the major technical reasons for the low productivity in African agriculture.

Several attempts have been made to transfer technologies that have successfully addressed these technical problema in developed countries to some African countries. These transfers have, however, turned out to be largely unsuccessful as they have often been inappropriate for the •••11 African farmer who constitute the majority of the African population, produce the bulk of the continent's total agricultural production and will continue to do so for the foreseesble future. While some success has been achieved in a few African countries in getting the few farmers who have large parcels of land, good liquidity, and some education to adopt .ome of the available improved technologies, the vast majority of African farmers have, however, not adopted the new technologies as quickly or as readily as

these '?rJg~~ss~ve farmers'. In the past, the reaS0n fur the 10w aduptlvn rates by the mustly small-scale farmers was errvnevusly attributed tv Sume

~nnate psychological character~sticswithin them that could only be broken down through increased persuasion and demonstratIun.

Continued low rates of adoption, despite concerted efforts to convince African fanaers about the benefits of available improved technologies have now led many scientists to believe that the fsrmers may not be readily or successfully adopting these technologiea for reasons other than

psychological ones. For example, in their surveys of the evolving technical and social conditions of African agriculture, Matlon and Spencer (1984) conclude that, with the except~on of relatively limited high potential zones, the set of new technologies on offer to African farmers is often

~napprupr~ate, poorly respunding to farmers' changing cunditions, and cannut bring about a sustainable response in aggregate supply.

Improving thia situation demands a reorientation of the objectives and methods of technical agricultural research. The type of agricultural

research that is appropriate for any country will depend on the unique

technical and socio-economic conditions that operate there and the financial resources and personnel available. It will also depend on the amount of basic research that is already available, and how much of this can be

beneficially applied or adapted to given situations in given circumstances.

In this regard, both basic and applied agricultural research sre

complimentary. What is important, however, is that every African country must evolve an appropriate National Agricultural Research System (NARS) charged with the key role of boch generating and adapcing the cechnology required to meet the agricultural development challenge of the country in a coherent and systematic manner. The appropriate NARS for each African country will need to centre around and agricultural technology and transfer process based on farmers' needs and circumstances, aerviced by an extension system that responds qUickly and effectively to farmers' needs and

reactions, and serving farmers who can beneficially utilize the technologies on offer and whose response to extension and research workers are promptly taken into consideration in further research efforts.

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The pr0c~ss 0f ~mpruving upon the agricultural technolugy in A£rfca

~:Ll, there:Jre, invulve many participants tn a two-way process which begins at one end with agricultural scientists carrying vut their research at

research stat~ons and extends to fn~lude the farmers themselves. The range of activities involved in this process in~ludes basi~ or fundamental

investigations, research on experiment stations, adaptive experiments on farmers' fields. and experiementation by faraers themselves. These range of activities must slso be accompanied by a strong national extension system as well as other agricultural support services.

IV. RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES FOR SUSTAINABLE FOOD PRODUCTION IN AFRICA

It is now generally a~cepted that increases in food and agricultural production per se will not by themselves guarantee food security for the peuples vf Africa. The increases in food productiun must come from a

sustainable food production system. Since African food production systems are generally reaource constrained. orgsnisationally complex. snd

ecologically vulnerable. their sustainability can only be ensured through their effective management.

Among the important factors which impinge on the sustainability of food production systems in Africa are environmental degradation (soil loss, deforestatfon, and desertification) and erratic weather conditions.

Soil: A valuable resource for life support systems

Soil is One of the most valuable resources of the continent; it ia one of the moat important support systems on which the others (foresta. the atmosphere and the sea) depend. In Africa about 8 per cent of the solI is found on fertile lands while 92 per cent is found on marginal lands

(deserts, acid, saline and water logged soils). The United Nations

Environmental Programme (UNEP) has estimated that the area which is prone to desertification worldwide is apprOXimately 30 million

km'.

of which 6.9 million ka' (or 23 per cent) are in Africa south of the Sahara. The

semi-arid soils are usually saline and. therefore. not suitable for crop production.

Because the 5011 ~s a v~tal resvurce, i t must be cvoserved at all CDstS.

Ava~lable data suggest that many African cuuntries have lust and cuntinue tu luse must uf their preciuus tup suil thruugh land empuverishment (suil

erosivn, overgrazing, uver-cultivacion, etc). It has been estimated, fur example, that Ethiopia luoses 1-3 billion tons uf fertile sui1 every year.

furthermure, water erosion puses great risks in countries such as Lesotho, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Ghana, Zaire, Liberia, while wind erosion poses similar threats in Mauritania, Senegal, Niger, Sudan and Somalia. In Lesotho, they have a painful saying that their only exports are "soil and cheap labour". This demonstrates that soil loss is not only a national problem but also a transboundary issue. It has further been estimated that about 742 million ha (more than one quarter uf the whole continent) is in

the prucess uf becuming useless fur cultivatiun.

During the cv10n~al era ~n ~frlca, svtl cunservat~0nwas a matter of serious concern. However, the colonial governments did not emphasize the significance of land conservation to the African farmera; inatead they imposed land conservation practices rigidly on them. The consequences were always severe for those "natives" who failed to obse rve the prescribed' sol1

c~nse~vationmeasures, such as planting grass strips 0r making contour trenches. Indeed, it was considered illegal to cultivate un river banks.

After independence very few African Guvernments vigerously puraued the legacy uf their colonial masters. Despite the fact that suil loss is a seriuus threat in many AfrIcan cuuntries, there are very few ur nu

successful sturies tu build on, instead there are many grim tales of land

mismanagement leading tu desertlficatton.

Soil conservation practices can only be implemented by the fac.ers themselves. It shuuld therefore, be the policy of the African governments to provide advice tu individual peasants through a network of agricultural extension services. The extension workers must be able to recognize the type of soil erosion and determine other areas where erosion is also likely to occur. Armed with this information, they shOUld then prescribe the appropriate methods uf protecting the land from soil loss. The extension workers must, however, not lose sight of the existing traditIonal aethods of

- 18 -

Suil c0nservation. These must be improved and promoted. For Governments tv be able to execute these vbl~gations, they must, in the first instance, develop sound national so~l policies. Needless to add that women, who do most of the farming ~n Africa must feature prominently in the planning and

~mplementation of agricultural pr0ductivity and soil conservation.

Rainfall fluctuations in the Sahel: a historical perspective

The climate of a region or sub-region cannot be assumed to be a constant phenomenon. During this century, the rains in the Sahel were 20 per cent below normal in 1903, 1909, 1912, 1917, 1937, 1943, 1969 and 1974. However, of greater importance is the fact that the rainfali patterns from 1900-1917 and from 1965-1985 were fairly similar. During these periods the rains in the Sahel were below normal.

For four decades (1902-1960) ra~nfall ~n the Sahel region was above normal. Indeed, underdevelopment and impoverishment which, according to the colonial masters, characterized the tropics were closely associated with the then constant hot and humid tropical climate. Because of the constancy in climate, it was assumed that those regions which received high rainfall would also have a corresponding high agricultural production in contrast to

those which received low rainfall. The Sahelian drought which commenced in 1968 and continued into the mid 1980's changed the thinking of those who subscribed to this view on the constancy of climate. To-day, climate is no longer assumed to be a steady unchanging phenomenon. The shifts in

temperature and precipitation are important and critical parameters to all societies, and especially those which are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. Whether these climatic fluctuations in the Sahelian sub-region are due to increase in "greenhouse gases" remains to be established.

Between 1968 and 1973 fifteen African countries experienced untold suffering from the ravages of drought. It is estimated that 150,000 people and millions of cattle and other livesock perished in this regon as a result of drought and related causes. The 1982-1985 drought also inflicted deaths to man and his livestock as well as cauaing displacement of faaIlies snd communities in 34 African countries. Today, 36 countries sre affected by

jrJught; 5 States ~n the Nurthern Sahara reg~vn) 21 ~n the Sudanu-Sahelian

reg~on and 10 cn the Kalahar~ desert area. N~nteen out of the 36 States fall under the category of least developed countrieg. About 200 million pevple live in these dr0ught-stricken countries.

In Africa prolonged droughts such as the Sahel drought of 1968-85 generally "spread" famine throughout the society. It is always the poor people who experience the famine first. In so.e countries famine &&y result from the maldistribution of food. In addition to directly affecting crop yields, drought triggers migration of pastoralists and nomsds from rural areas to urban centres.

Since man is unable to prevent droughts, the next best option he has is to predict theIr on-coming so that appropriate actions can be taken to mitigate their adverse effects and impacts. Of particular interest and concern to African countr:~s should be the development and/or strengthen~ng

of instiutional capability for mitigating the effects of drought. Efforts should also be made to encourage neighbouring countries to cooperate in the exchange of information and experience on early warning systems.

Development by member States of remote sensing techniques for drought 'earLy

warning is also highly desirable.

The future climate of sub-Sahara Africa

Studies on climate change have assumed great significance within the last few years since the Villack meeting in Austria, 1985. The scientists

at c ending the c onf e r e nce announced that, "As a result of the increasing

concentrations of 'greenhouse gases', it is now believed that in the first half of the next century a rise in global mean temperature could occur which is greater than any in man's history." They predicted a rise in global temperature of 1.5 - 4.S·C. While there is a concensus on the nature of global climate change, the nature of climate change at the regional level is not yet well understood. In Africa and particularly in the sub-Sahara

Africa, climate is already exerting control over development programmes.

Future developments in Africa will have to be planned carefully bearing in mind the sensitivity of the region to climatiC vsriations.

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The ⁸⁰ 2alled greenh0use gases [hat ~ause ::l~mat~c ~hanges include

ma~nly carbun dioxide, oxides vf nitrogen, methane and chlorofluurocarbons (CFCs). These gases allow the passage of incoming solar energy but they trap the outgoing rediation from the earth resulting in the warming up of the earth. In addition, these gases affect the earth's stratospheric ozone layers. If the emission into the stmosphere of greenhouse gases remains the same, the Villach conference predicted that climate change will occur about 2030-2050. However. the wsrming will not be uniform globally.

An important question to ask is to what extent will sub-Sahara Africa be affected by climate change? In 1978, UNEP sponsored a meeting of experts which noted the already existing seasonal and annual climatic variations in

the se~~-arid trupics. Also nuted was the decl~ne ~n rainfall resulttng in drought and desertification. It was predicted that future climatic change

N~:l ~ee?e~ t~e (ri5~S :n f00d, water and ~nergy. Because of shifts ~~

natural ecological zones, (i.e. crop and forest belts will move to higher latitudes). pressure will increase on the use of marginal and virgin ecosystems. The experts also predicted that due to enhanced

evapotranspiratlon, the humid tropics will become drier.

The sea level will also rise due to climate change (about 25-140 cm) which will increase flooding and salinization. Undoubtedly, the sea level

rise will disrupt settlements, agriculture, industry, forests, fisheries and wildlife habitats as well as increasing salt water levels of ground water.

rivers and bays in the humid tropics. The change in climate will,

therefore, have a significant impact on the social and ecunumic develupment uf this region. For example, it is predicted that such a rise will affect about 20 per cent of Egypts 35,000 km' of arable land.

What can be done to avert the impending calamity of climate change? Of the greenhouse gases mentioned above. carbon dioxide constitutes 66 per cent of the global warming. The preindustrial concentration of atmospheric

carbon dioxide was 280 ppm; in 1980, it was 340 ppm snd by the year 2030 it is expected to rise to 560 ppm. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can be reduced by burning less fossil fuels such as coal and oil. In addition, atmospheric carbon dioxide can be reduced through the process of

photosyntheais.

•

H~g~e~ Dlants f:x atm0spher~c carbond:0x:de ~ntv sugdrs :n their green leaves. 1~ th Ls fundamental ~~,)l')J~I:al pr o c e s s (photosvnchests ) , oxyge n Ls released intu the atmusph~re. Furests, therefure, clean the air by taking up the carbun diuxide and releasing uxygen. In this prucess, forests regulate the wurld climate by absorbing the pollutant carbon dioxide.

Deforestation results in an excess of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere producing the "greenhouse effect." It is estimated that in Africa, about 3.6 aillion ha of forests are cleared each year. Cote d'ivoire has the highest deforestation rate in Arica (70 per cent). Burning of forests and grasslands, which is also common in sub-Sahara Africa, releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Massive afforestation programmes are,

therefore, needed in sub-Sahara Africa. Setting aside one day in a year for tree planting is not adequate. Afforestation must be carried out throughout the year; ,~e pld~ted seedlings must be luoked after keenly including their protection from goats and sheep.

V. FOOD ACCESSIBILITY

Access to food encompasses both physical and economic aspects. Physical access to food relates both to the adequacy of supply and to the _effi~iency of the distribution system including storage, preservation, transport.

marketing and processing. Economic access to food relates to the ability of groups of people to establish entitlement over a requisite amount of food.

The challenge of improving food security in Africa would, therefore, include actions aimed at improving the procurement system and the food

marketing system as well as actions aimed at providing the people at risk of hunger with income which will permit them to purchase their reqUired food.

The procurement system can be improved either by boosting local

production or by importing to supplement domestic production. Other ways of enhansing the procurement system include the draWing up of a multi-year food requirement plan, the establishment of food security stocks, the prevention of post-harvest food losses, and the establishment of an early warning

system.

,

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Imp r c v Lng the d Ls^t r Lbut lon syst e n r equi r e s t.he de ve Lo pment of adequate

:nfrdstructures su~h as markets, f0ads, tranSp0rt, and stvrage; the

establ~shment of market intelligence ~nformation; and the prov~s~on of

~ncentives to both producers and traders. The ~ncomes of households will also be improved depending on Governments' policies regarding employment and transfers. These three components necessary for improving food security are interlinked in that an improved marketing system could considerably improve the procurement system which in turn will contribute to raising incomes of the majority of the population. In view of this close relationship of the three components, the importance of the marketing system in food security policy is great as it can promote dependable supplies of low cost food both for rural and urban populations. The major problems inh~biting the

development of an adequate marketing system include Governments policies

regard~ng f00d trade, ?ricing, and stvrjg~.

S0vernments' ~ener~l ~Jl:cv dnd Fv0d Market~ng

In the majority of African countries, if not in all, Governments have used direct or indirect mesns to influence the trade of agricultural

commod~ties, including the marketing of locally consummed food stuffs, of expurt cfupS and uf impurt fvud _~tems. Such an intervention is guided by

soc~al considerations including the following:

1. Ensuring that food is accessible to everyone and more particularly to the inadequately nourished citizens;

2. Establishing a developmental strategy through the stabilization of agricultural commodity prices or in order to transfer revenues from marketed agricultural surpluses to the secondary and tertiary sectors; and

3. Adopting a political strategy in order to provide incentives to producers or to favour the powerful urban consumers.

In order to achieve these objectives and effectively control the market, Governments in most African countries have established commodity marketing boards and have promulgated laws regulating food trade (domestic food marketing, export of agricultural commodities and import of food stuffs).