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UNITED NATIONS

AFHICAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING

D A K A R

THE FUTURE OF THE WORLD ECONONY

by

l;GRo

REPRODUCTION/012-78

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WASSILY LEONTIEF, ANNE P. CARTER, PETER A. PETRI

December 1978

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INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

REPRODUCTION/012-78 Page 1.

The l;)asis for the present report is a study on the environmental aspects of th:e future world economy. This study' includes - as !'- principal feature - a se.t of alternative projections of the demographie, economie: and environ•

mental states of the world in bench-mark years 1980, 1990 and 2000.

The detailed methodology and substantive findi~ge of the study are relèased in parts one and two of the present report. This introduction is meant to give a short history of the project and to summarize the findings and eonclusions of the study having the most immediate interest for the

eurrent deliberations on the future of the International Development Strategy and ways of implementing the new international economie order.

THE SETTING OF THE PROJECT

The InternatiOAal De?elopment Strategy adopted in 1970 expressed coneern with the environment and stated that national and international efforts should be intensified "to arrest the deterioration of_. the human environment and to - take measures towards its improvement, and to promote activities that will

help maintain the ecological balance on whic~ human survival depends". 1 Since 1970, environmental concerna have received increasing attention.

At the international level, these have been most notably manifest in the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment,2

in the founding, in the same year, of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and in its subsequent activities, in an intensification of environmental programmai of

Unite~ Nations organizations, in the establishment in 1974,of the Interna- tional Habitat and Human Séttlements Foundation (General Assembly resolution 3327 (XXIX), and in the decision to hold a United Nations conference on

human settlements in 1976 (General Assembly resolutions 3001 (XXVII) and 3128 (XXVIII). At the national level, many Governments have adopted more numerous and more effective environmental ·policies. The interest of people and

Governments has intensified rapidly and in many directions.

1. International Development Strategy: Action Programme of the General Assembly for the Second United Nations Development Decade (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.71.II.A.2), para. 72

2. Report of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment (United Nations publication, Sales· No. E.73.II.A.14).

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REPRODUCTION/012-78 Page 2.

Within. the United Nations governing bodies, member States have decided that environmental policies.should imply for the International Development Strategy no weakening of the thrust to make the world, in its economie and

social aspects, a more just and rational h9me for mankind. -On the contrary, a number of resolutions of the General Assembly and the Economie and Social Council, expecially

Asse~bl~: ; ~esolution

3002 (XXVII) of 15 December 1972, emphasized that environmental policies should enhance the attainment of.the

. '

goals and objectives of the Strategy and should ensure that the development priorities of the developing countires set' out in the Strategy were in no way adversely affected or distorted.

At present, the whole question of the environment and the Strategy clearly falls within the broad range of considerations which led to the declaration on the Establishment Of ·a Ne~· Iht~~natidnal Economie Order and the corresponding Programme of Action and to General Assembly resolution 3362 (S-VII) on development and international economie co-operation. In particular; the General Assembly decided that modifications to the Strategy must take account of that Declaration and Programme of Action.

In accordance with these principles, the United Nations initiated in 1973 à study on the impact of prospective economie issues and policies on the International Development Strategy, on which the present report is based.

The objective of the study was to investigate the interrelationships between future economie growth and prospective economie issues, including questions on the availability of natural resources, th~ degree of pollution associated with the production of goôds and services, and the economie impa~t of abate~

ment policies. One question specific~ly aske~ by the study was whether the existing and ether development targets were consistent with the availability and geographie distribution· of resources. To the exent that sorne resources arc

limited should the desired growth be modified? Does increasing concern with pollution and protection of the environment as a whole seriously affect . economie development and call for a re-examination of various national and

international development targets? These end ~ther questions were to ·be investigated within the f~amework

oi

this study.

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REPRODUCTION/012-78 Page 3

Although the 1970s have been designated as the Second United Nations

Develop~ent Decade, certain poli~ies~ especially those relgting to environ- mental factors, are more realistically viewed from a longer-term perspective ..

While the potential impact of erivironmental constraints may riot impinge to any substantial extent on development-over the medium-term, the cost of post- poning actions that take account of such potential factors may be great,-

The impact exerted by environmental conditions and policies on the growth and structure

of

the world econom: generally becomes apparent only

gradually and in the long.run. Environmental conditions and policies, however, are highly pertinent ,to the International Development Strategy for the Second United Nations Development Decade, despite the Strategy's single-decade format.

This is because, despite this format, the Strategy is coming to be viewed more a and more as a contribution to a cumulative, long-run process, as evidenced1

for ~xample1 bJ its recent linking in êeneral Assembly decisions with the coricept of a new international economie order.

This approach is significantly new, because despite the other ways in which it was a historie step forward, the present Strategy was originally concerned with the perspective of a single decade without explicitfy taking into account longer-range problems such as those that have recently come to the fore in the context of the conîerences on environment, on population and on food~ and most importantly, in the"co~text of· the decisions on a new inter- national economie order. In this respect, the climate o-f o.pinion prevailing today differs signifi,cantly from that of 1970, and may, therefore, call for a reassessment of the underlying thrust of the Strategy. Accordingly, while the goals and objectives of the International Development Strategy have been

reaffirmed and have been complemented by related decisions, there hgs arisen at th~ same timea feeling that the long-term implications of present.iriter- national policies deserve_closer scrutiny. Such scrutiny could throw useful light on sorne future bonsequences of present policies, and conversely, could .help dis close sorne needs for action in the 1970s imposed bY, mankind' s future

requirements.

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REPRO~~CTION/012-78

Page

4.

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THE GLOBAL MODEL

To provide a qua!ltitative basis for the study, a global economie madel of the world economy has been contructed. The purpose of the madel is to display various possible interrelationships, as the world economy evolves over future decades, between environmental and other economie policies. With respect to time horizons, the world economy of 1970 is depicted and compared with hypothetiçal pictures of the world economy in 1980, 1990 and 2000.

Despite its global scope, the madel displays an unusual degree of detail.

The world economy is divided into 15 regions - ·namely, four developed market regions (North America, Western Europe (high-.income), Japan and Oceania); two developed centrally planned regions (the Unio'n of Soviet Socialist Repu blies e.nd Eastern Eur~pe); six developing _market regions (Latin America (medium-incarne), Latin America (low-income), the Middle East and African ail count~ies, Asia (low-

incame), Africa (arid) and Africa (tropical); one region including the countries of Asia with centrally planned economies; and two medium-incarne regions (Western Europe (medium-incarne) and Southern Africa).

Eac~ region is described in terms of

A5

sectars of economie ~ctivity. In agriculture, four specifie subsectors are analysed - namely, livestock praduct..s, grains, high protein crops and roots. With respect to mineral resources, special accent is placed on copper, bauxite, nickel, zinc, lead,. iron ore~ ~etroleum1 natural gas and coal. Manufacturing activities are divided into 22 sectors, such as food processing, primary metala, textiles, fertilizer, various types of

machinery and equipment. There is separate treatment of utilities and construc- tion, trade and services, transportation and commQnication. The madel describes emissions of eight types of major pollutants and five types of pollution-abatement activities.

Though each of the 15 regions is treated separately, the madel also brings them together through a complex linkage mechanism, including exports and imports of sorne 40 classes_ of goods and services, capital flows, aid transfers and

foreign interest payments. The madel also permits a detailed analysis of prospective changes in technology, cast of production and relatives priees.

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REPRODUCTION/012-78 Page 5

The madel was constructed in the first instance for the study of deve- lopment in relation ta environmental questions. The principal environmental policies considered are those concerning pollution, constraints on the ex- traction of mineral resources and the production of food. However, as can be clearly s~h f~om the above description, ·the madel is basically a general- purpose economie madel and is thus applicable ta the analyais of the evolution of the world economy from other points of view.

Because of these features of the global model, the scope of the study was broadened to include, in addition ta environmental aspects, sorne other probl ems of economie development. Based on results of madel computations the study investigates ~n a v~ry broad framework such problems as food ~nd agri- culture; mineral resources, pollution and pollution abatement, structural changes in the economies, balance of payments and changes in international economie relations. It is hoped that the madel will have a contihuing life in which fresh data are used as they become available and in which the madel is eventually applied to other de~~lopment questions.

The degree of detéll in the madel is advantageous since i t permits the use of data specifie to individual industries in particular regions, and

~onsequently resulta in conclusions of relatively specifie policy signifi~ènce.

This will provide a basis for continuing contributions to the quantitative analysis of ·the evolving world economy~ such as th~t requested in General Assembly resolution 3345 (XXIX), entitled'''Research on the interrelationships between population, resources, environment and development'', and especially in General Assembly resolution 3508 (XXX), which calls fpr long-range projections of economie development, first at the regional and then at the global level.

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Page 6.

THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY AND ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS OF DEVELOPMENT

As a bench-mark against which to measure the future impacts of environ- mental and other ecc·nomic policies, hypothetical pictures (scenarios) of the world economy) are needed. Most of the alternative sconnri6s analysed in this study embody various assumptions about rates of growth of population and o{ gross product per capita •.

One possible:scenario was to use growth targets set by the International Development Strategy for the Second United Nations Development Decade. These targets, for the developing regions as a whole, are set at 6 per cent per

annum for gross product and 3.5 per cent for gross product per capita, assuming and average 2.5 per cent annual growth of population.3

The targets were reaffirmed in 1975 at the seventh special session of the General Assembly in the resolution adopted on development and international

. t ' 4

econom1c co-opera 1on.

The International Development Strategy does not set targets for growth in developed countries. However, if previous long-term trends in these countries were extrapolated, they would mean an annual growth of about 4.5 per cent in gross product and 3.5 per cent in gross prbduct per capita.

If the minimum targets of growth for the developing countries, as set by the International Development Strategy, were implemented continuously throughout the remaining decades of this centrury, and if the growth rates prevailing in the developed countries during the past two decades were to be retained in the future,then the gap in per cap{ta gro~s product between these two groups of countries, which was 12 ~o 1 on the average in 1970, wouli·not start diminishing even by the year 2000. It is true that gross product in the developing countries would continue to expand somewhat faster than in the developed countries, and thus the share of the developing countries in total world product would increase. However, because of the much higher growth rates of population, the expansion of gross product per capita would be no faster in developing countries than in the world as a whole.

3. International Development Strategy: Action Programme for the second United Natio~ Development Decade (United Sales Noo E.71.II.A.2)9 paras, 13-15.

"'

of the General Assembly Nations publication, 4. General Assembly resolution 3362 (S-VII) of 19 September 1975, preamble.

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LEFRODUCTION/G12-78 Pagé 7. ·

This outcome is clearly contrary to the spirit of the International Development Strategy and the Declaration on the Establishment of a New Inter- national Economie Order, which call for the correction of inequalities and t he redressment of existing injustice, making it possible to narrow the gap between the developed and developing countries and to ensure steadily accelerating

economie and social development and justice for present and future generations.5

It is for this reason that the International DevelO'pment -Strategy laid stress on the necessity to accelerate growth starting with the second hal f of the current decade in arder to make at least a modest beginning towards narrowing the incarne gap between developed and developing countries.

For these consideration the study turned to different scenarios, in which growth rate~ of gross product per ri~p{ta were se~ in such a way as to reducc, roughly by half, the incarne gap between the developing and the developed countries by the year 2000, with a view towàrds closing the incarne gap completely by the middle of the next century. It was felt that these scennriôE wore more consistent with the spirit of the International Development Strategy and aims of the Declaration on the Establishment of a New International Economie Order.

Table 1 summarizes the basic differences between the two approaches and. can be used to illustrate sorne of the basic features of the more consistent

..

approach, which leads to a reduction of the average incarne gap from 12 to 1 in 1970 to about 7 to 1 in the year 2000.

To reach this goal, a aubstantially higher rate of growth of per capita .gross product. would be necessary in the developing countries. The study assumed

t hat these higher rates could not be achieved immediat ely but that the accele- ration would have to be a graduai step-by-step increase, starting with the current actual rates of growth in most of the developing regions. · An exception was made for the Middle East and African oil countries, where a graduai decline from the currently ~ery high growth rates (13-14 per cent) was coneider~d a more realistic assumption. Under scenario

c,

illustrated in table 1, growth rates of population were based on the United Nations "low" projections.

other scenarios, using the "medium" United Nations projections, were also

• found to be consistent with the basic goal of reducing the incarne gap.

5G General Assembly resolution 3201 (S-VI) of 1 May 1974, Preamble.

However,

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REPRQDUCTION/012•?8 _

Page·8.

TABLE 1. HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIOS . OF WORLD ECONONIC DEVELOPMENT

Growth rates (percentage):

Gross product •••••••••••

Popt\_l.ation ••••••••••••••••••

Gross product per capita

Income gap in the year 2000 c

Scenario

I

c

I

c

I

Developed Countries

1.0

0.6

12 to 1

7 to 1

Developing~ Countries 1

2.5 2.0

a; I indicat es scenario based on extrapo ation to the year 2000 of

International Development Strategy targets for gross prod.nct incr 0ase ill doveloping co'Ul}t_ries and extr."pol at ed long-term historic::ll rat es in - developed countries.

b. C indicat es scenario based on substantial reduction of gap in gross product per capita between developing and developed countr ies.

c. Average per capita gross domestic product of the developed

regions, as related t the average per capita gross domestic product of the developing regions.

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REFRCJUC~ION/012-7C Page 9.

With respect to developed countries a different rule was followed for

~rojecting the growth rate of gross product.· .rt was .assumed that, as individual developed regions achieve higher l evels of gross product per head of population, their growth·rate of product per capita would decline. Thus, the growth rat e of 4 per cent per capita would apply to regions in $3-4,000 incarne per capita range (in 1970 constant priees), a 3 per cent growth rate in the $4~5,000 range,

2.5 per ~ent in the $5-6,000 range and so forth. This has the effect of bringing down average gro~th rate of gross product in the developed countries to 3.6-4

per cent in the final three decades of this century from the long-term trend of 4.5 per cento It was fel t that an assumption of gradually~eclining growth

rat~s in the developed countries wouldbc more realistic thnn would n simple axtr3pol ntion of their past performance.

Under such conditions of accelerat ed growth in most developing regions, i n 1970-2000 average per capita gross product would incr.ease 4 times in the Middle East and African oil countries, :3.6 times in the developing market

economies of Asia and about 2.5 times in the non-oil countries of Africa.

Even under these relatively optimistic assumptions,by the year 2000

average gross product per capita would only reach about $400 (in 1970 priees) in non-oil Asia and Africa, while ether developing regions would be abl e t o enter the $1-29000 range. This owing to the relatively lo~ current l evel s of

pe~ capita income in non-oil Asia and Africa, and to the current divergence in growth rat es of different developing regions. Only in the early part of the next century co~d one realistically envisage more equality in average per

capita incarnes among the various developing regions.

To achieve the relatively low incarne t arget of $500 per capita by the year 2000, non-oil regions of Africa and Asia would have increase their gross product annual growth rat es to more t han 6.5-7.5 per cent as co~pared to the

5-5-6-5 range assumed in the studyo While such ~igher .growth rat es are not impossible, especially favourable conditions rel ating to trade and payments, transfer of technology and technical assistance would have to be created for

~evelopment of these areas. Under al l circum~ta~c~~ it i~ clear that the incarne situatiqn in these areas will continue to be acute in this century, and that

~ore attention and concerted international effort favouring development of tllese regions is necessary~

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REPRODUCTION/012-78 Page 10.

CONDITIONS OF GROWTH (1): FOOD AND AGRICULTURE

The first question that the study addresses itself to is whether the

'

hypothetical scenarip of world development just described is feasible, given the

1~ell-known constraints on. growth~ such as the avai labi lity of mineral reserves,the potential .for food production and the l evels of industrial and consumer poll u- tion of the natural environrnent.

It is important to stress that the study proceeds from assumptions of popul ation growth, as projected by the United Nations. According to these pro- ject~ons, which ar e based on a detai led analysis of fertility, rnortality, age structure, urbanizatioti and other basic factors underlying and deterrnining popu- l at ion dynarnics, growth of population is not an exponential process, or an expo- nential exploeion, in which a constant growth rate is maintained. Rather these

...

projections show that population growth rates first tend to increase, then to decline, aft er certain l evels of incarne and degrees of urbanization are reached.

It follows from these projections that populati on growth rat es in the

developed regions will be falling already in the remai ning quarter of this century, and that a st able stat e of population will be reached after 2025. The coming - quarter century will, however, evidence a continuation of the very high rat e of population expansion experjenced in the developing regions between 1950 and 19}5. However, population growth rates will start decreasing here in the first quarter of the next century, and a stable state probably wil l be reached after 2075. This outcome would be achieved not through rnass st arvation, but through demographie change occurring at relat ively high levels of economie development.6

What ever changes in population growth rates might occur i n the future, it remains certain that there ~ill be an extremely steep increase in total world population in 1975-2000 (by abo~t 60 per cent), and particul arly in the developing regions (about twofold). Thus, the pressure of increasing population upon the

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food producing potential of the world will remain enormous.

6. See Concise Report on the World Population Situation in 1970-1975 and Its Long- Range Implications (United Nations Publication, Sal es No. E.74.XIII.4)

PP 58 and 59. ~

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Page 11

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As stated in the International Development Strategy for the Second United

~ations Development Decade, a 4 per cent rate of annual growth of agricultural

production is consistent with a gross product growth rate of 6 per cent.7 Assuminc higher over-all growth rates of the economies of the developing regions (an

average of 7 per cent), and with full provision for changes in the structure of personal consumption (including the reduction of the share of food in total consumption aooompanying the increase in income levels), the average annual in- crease of agricultural production in the coming decades would have to be about 5 per cent.

This assumes that the current levels of dependence by developing regions on imports from developed regions would not increase. If this dependence were increased, the burden of higher food imports on the balance of payments of non- ail Africa and As{a would rise substantially. However, it should be borne in mind that the difference between a 4 abd 5 per cent growth rate in agricultural output would be, by 2000, larger in absolute terms than the total agricultural output in 1970. This clearly shows the difficulty of using imports of food as a major source of any substantial and continuous increase. The major thrust of foed supply in the developing regions will have ta come from an increase in their own agricultural output.

A 5 per cent annual growth of agricultural output is equivalent to 4r3- fold increase in 30 years. This is quite a formidable task • . However, a 4 per cent annual growth would compound to a 3.2 -fold increase in the same period, and even a mere 2.5 per cent increase, consistent with maintaining at least today's very law food consomption levels, would necessitate a 2.1-fold increase of output by the end of the century. In addition, agricultural production in the developed regions as a whole would have to increase by at least 60 per cent in 30 years to assure an averige rise in their agricultural consumptionper capita of only 1 per cent per annum.

7. Although this target date was not achieved during the first half of the

Decade, the World Food Conference held in Rome in 1974 ~eaffirmed the target for the second half of the Dec~de.

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REPRODUCTION/012-78 Page 12.

Will this task of expanding agricultural output be feasible? As shawn in the study, all the developing regions have fairly large reserves of arable land which can be brought into cultivation given adequate investment and institu- tional arrangements. It is physically possible to increase the land area under cultivation in the developing market regions as a whole by sorne 229 million

hectares by the year 2000, or by 30 per cent as compared to the actual arable land total of 1970. Presumably, many substantial me as ures of public po licy in the areas of land reclamation and irrigation, public and private investm~nt, credit facilities, supply of necessary machinery and equipment, resettlement of agricul- tural l abour and ethers would have to be taken in order to turn this physical possibility into a reality.

Even after mobilizing available excess arable land resources, land productivity (including crop yields and oattle productivity) would have to be

increased at least threefold in the developing regions if the more optimistic target of a 5 per cent annual growth in agricultural output is to be achieved.

If the more modest target of 4 per cent is retained,land productivity would still have to increase about 2-2.5 timeseWith a marginal growth of 2.5 per cent, and assuming full utilization of additional land, the necessary increase in land productivity is estimated at 60 per cent.

It should be added that, according ~o the study, even in the developed regions, where possibilities of expanding arable land are sometimes very limited, land productivity would have increase by 60 to 100 per cent to satisfy their growing demand for agricul tural products. Th us, the task of a new "green revolu- tion" is not one that exists exclusively in the developing areas. But it is there that it is most acute and least supported, as of now, by adequate policies and resources.

The major task of drastically increasing land productivity within a 30 year time horizon is not without precedent in the recent history of world agricul- ture. In the United States of America agricultural output per unit of total

l and area under cultivation has increased on the average by 80 per oant in 1971-19?5, as compared to 19h1-1945. Crop yields of wheat have increased by90 per cent,

and of corn 2.8 times with the same time period, In the Soviet Union agricultural output pcr unit of cultivated land has increa .ed on the average by 79 per in

1971-1974, as compared to 1946-1950. Crop yields of grains are on the average twice aa high as the- ·earlier period, whfl<e yields of cotton have increased 2.6..:2.8 times.

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REPRODOCTION/012-78 Page 13 •

Starting from a relatively high level1 Japan has been able to increase its average rice yield in the last.30 years by about 30per oent. Possibilities of much faster growth due to intensive ir:t'iga.tion 1vere dèmonstrn.ted recently in some developing South-east Asian countries where absolute yield levels were ~Jite

loN before these programmes \vere sta.rtède Thus, in bath the Philippines ancl Thailand average rice orop yields were increased.by about 50 percent between 1960 and 1970, whioh is equivalent to increasing 3e4 times in a 30-year p3riod.

In most developing countries crop ynelds are still far belo~v those of Japnn1 and in all of them they are even farther from the 8 tons per hectare potential th.::d;

is considered possible given the present state of teohnology1 an irrigation rate of close to 100 per cent and adequa~e organization.

According to sorne estimates, the total investment neoessaryto bring the average crop yield in Asia to half the maximum (4 tons per hectare) would be over

$60 billion, including investment into irrigation, fertilizer plants, farm machinery, transport equipment and the like.8

It

~~be

useful to note. that similar schemes implemented in the Soviet Union ~tve brought about a 45 per cent increase in ave~age rice yields in the past 10 years, and that those yields have

• increa.sed 2.3 times as oompared to the late 1950s.

In wheat the progress in the 1960s was spcctacular1 beth in the developed and in sorne developing oountries.. In Mexico, where the "green revolution" vms

ini tiated, crop yield.s of 1-Jheat increased 2. 2 times betwoen 1960 and 1970. In

..

the same period1 on a much larger scale1 but in the susbstantially more complicc:ted onvironment ... of India and Pakistan, the average wheat yield Nas incren.sed' by 50 por cent, which is eqtiiv~'t~ent to a 3-fold increasè over a spttn of 30 years. In the Syrian Arab Republio in only five years (from 1970 to 1975) total agricultural production increa~ed by 50 per cent, and the amount

of

irrigated land doublcd.·

B. Far Fa.stern Economie Review5 23 Janua.ry 1975•

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REPRODUCTION/012-7.§ ....

Page 14•

Wi th all the possible caveats about the unpredicta.bili ty of v1eather conditions and the problems involved in'implementing technological revolutions in agriculture, it is clear from these exa.mples that, a.t least Hith respect to the major food staples, the doubling and trebling of land produotivity is a real- istic teohnical éllid organizational possibili ty. It is well kl10\>Jll that crop yields and ca.ttle productivi ty are, as a rule, rela.tively lov1 in the developing countries. Thus1 an inorease

ot

land productivity in these regions to current levels reached in the developed and sorne of the developing countries would be a significant contribution to meeting the targets discussed earlier.

This task clea.rly involves substaatial investmcnt into land improvement, irrigation, fertilizer production and distribution, research and development - espeoially the development of thoso kinds of plants and animals 1.vhich yield best results in the peculiar natural environment of the regions and countries ir question - education for farmers and the like. Given the lnrge excess labour potential. in these regions a lot can be achieved by intensifying labour inputs iàto soil improvement and plant cultivation. Adequate provision would need to be made for foreign aid in the promotion of higher agricultural production and for the international transfer of progressive technology where applicable.

The sucoess of the new technological revolution in agriculture of tho developing regions depends to a largo extent on land reform and other social and institutional changes, which are necessary to overcome non-technological barriers to increased land use and productivity. It also depands on oreating, by special measures of agricul tural po licy, a f2.voura.blo eoonomic environment for agricul- tural development 1 including incentives directed towards eliminating inefficion•

oies in the use of land, labour and technology. If these candi tiens are met, thon the formidable ta.sk of feeding the rapidly increasing population of the planet and of improving diets in all regions of the world will be fulfilled.

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• Conditions of growth (II):

Adeguacy of mineral resources

REPRODUCTION/012-78

Page

15.

According to the study1 there will be a tremendous growth in the world consumption of rninerals between 1970 and 2000. The demand for copper is expected to increase

4•8

times, for bauxite and zinc

4•2

times, nickel

4•3

times, lead

5·3

times iron ore

4•7

times, petroleum

5·2

times, natural gas

4•5

times and coal

5.0

times.

These estima.tes were adjusted1 wherever possible, to takè into account tho influence of future technologies on resource development and consumption. Account was taken of potential savings of primary resour~s through increa.sed recycling. The maximum potential for rocycling of many materials under continuing growth, estima.tcd to be about 5~5 per cent, was assumed to be achieved in all regions h) the end of the century. In spi te of the .n.ew1 more rational and economie Ne,ys

of using mineral resources 1 the world is expectod to consume during the last 30 yen.rs of the t v.rentieth century from 3 to 4 times the volume of minen:.ls that has been consumed throughout the whole previous history of civilization. Aro tho fini te reserves of m:L"lerals in the ea.rth 1s crust adequate to sus tain this deriDnd?

The stud.y points to the uncertainties of estilTic::'l.ting bath future stocks of min:eral resources and future demands for minerals. Resources alre0dy lmown to exist will be supplcmented to an unknown exten:t by new discoveries in the future, as they \-lOre in the past. The degree to 1.-1hich technological cha.nge will affect mining and extraction costs is unknown. Substitution among mj_nerals IIDY result from changes in relative priees and from technological ohanges in induotrios using theae minorols. Beoause of the highly speculative charactor of estinntœ of regional,

and world resourco endowments 1 a very cautious and conserva.tive approach '1-Jél.S us cd in making the be..sic ca.lculations for this study - namely 1 the ava.ilable curront estimates of reserves of minera.ls known to exist a.t present were used é:!.S a bl:!.sio benchmark without any provision for new discoveries for major new potential sources, such as undensea nodules.

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REPRODUCTION/012-78 Page 16.

. .

When measured against this extremely conservative bench-mark it was found • that only two of the metallic minerals considered in this study, lead and zinc, are expected to "run out"- by the turn of the century, provided that the assumr- tions of future demand àre correct a~d ·that proven reserves of mineral resources do not increase fro~ their current estimates. However, other investigators hrvo expressed concern about adequacies of otP,er minerals such as asbestos, fluorine, gold, mercury, phosporus, silver, tin and tungsten.

In a less conservative. scenario the estimated endowments of metallic resources found to be relatively scarce either in the world as a whole or in sorne ·of the regions \vere augmented by "hypothetical" and "speculative" reserves cited in geological investigations. In this variant ~orld reserves of copper were increased about 2.5 times, rese~ves of nickel 2 times, reservee. of lead 1.5 times and reserves of zinc 1.2 times~ Iron ore and bauxite were found to be in abundant supply.

Of the energy resources, coal is relatively plentiful even under conserva- tive endowment estimates, while natural gas endowment furnish only a small proportion of energy for the developing·countries. In the case of petroleum, - available estimates of world reserves were found to be roughly 1.3 times the estimates of cumulative world demand through 2000. However, estimates of oil reserves are increasing rapidly, and it is very difficult to reconcile the various conflicting estimates of possible future changes in their regional distribution.

Thus, known world resources of metallic minerals and fossil fuels are e;enerally sufficïerit to supply world requirements through the remaining decades

Ar

this centur·y, . and probably into the early, part of the n~:){t.., ceJltury as -.w,f:}_ll.

However, the adequacy of the world endowment does not necessarily ensure against regional shortages and high priees, nor does it guarantee smooth economie

trensi ti ons to dependance on shale ail, gasi1'ied co al and ether "new" energy sources.

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