HAL Id: hal-02593245
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Submitted on 15 May 2020
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Modelling farm vulnerability to flooding Towards the
appraisal of adaptation policies
P. Bremond, G. Abrami, C. Blanc, F. Grelot
To cite this version:
P. Bremond, G. Abrami, C. Blanc, F. Grelot. Modelling farm vulnerability to flooding Towards the
appraisal of adaptation policies. European Geosciences Union, Apr 2009, Vienna, Austria. pp.1, 2009.
�hal-02593245�
Modelling farm vulnerability to flooding
Towards the appraisal of adaptation policies
Case study
1
* UMR G-EAU (Montpellier)
Contact: pauline.bremond@cemagref.fr
European Geosciences Union, Vienna, Austria, 19-24 April 2009
Our study aims at developing a methodology toappraise this kind of policy using Cost-Benefit Analysis.
Measures to mitigate vulnerability enhance farm capacity to adapt and recover after flooding. The expected benefits of their implementation rest upon the improvement of farm management during and after flooding. Current appraisal methods are not sufficient: they rely on direct damage estimation and do not consider farm level.
We developed a conceptual model using UML (Unified Modelling Language) at the farm scale which takes into account:
1. spatial distribution of farm buildings and land plots, 2. time scale (mid and long term effects),
3. work management to achieve production and recovery tasks.
Contributions of modelling vulnerability at the farm scale
2
Perspectives of application to the downstream area of the Rhône river
3
The Rhône river program, a contract of agreed objectives between French government and local authorities, plans to implement measures to mitigate farm vulnerability in flood prone areas of the Rhône river downstream.
Expected advantages of farm vulnerability mitigation are:
1. to adapt farms to maintain agricultural activities in floodplains, 2. to compensate “over-flooding” impacts in case of risk transfer at basin level.
Bremond P.*, Abrami G.*, Blanc C.*, Grelot F.*
Electrical net elevation
160 cm
200 cm
Equipment elevation
Administrative office and housing at the first floor
Person and administrative office
elevation
Effects of a list of measures to mitigate farm vulnerability will be evaluated using a “farm scale” vulnerability model and will be compared with the costs of implementation (Cost-Benefit Analysis) to help decision makers to prioritize funding. The modelling step highlights a need of data and help us to establish a methodology to collect it.
Horticulture Arboriculture Cereals Grassland Green house Buildings Legend
Examples of mitigation measures
Those measures intend to avoid direct damages and to facilitate recovery.
Studied area
3 000 farms are potentially exposed to flood risk.
Farm 1 Farm 2 Building Building Plots Plots Time dimension
To account for mid and long term effects, temporalities of flood events and farm activity are considered.
Organisational dimension
Our model takes into account work management after flooding (competition between production and recovery tasks).
Few examples of implementation of vulnerability mitigation measures exist. To help decision making, local authorities asked for an economic method to evaluate the program of farm vulnerability mitigation.
Effects taken into account with current methods and with a farm scale approach
Current methods of damage appraisal appraise direct damage (building and crop). Focusing on the farm scale enables to take into account induced effects on farm management after flooding.
Measures BuildingGreen houseequipmentFixed equipementMobile of inputStock Stock of product Stock of forage Crop Livestock Equipement availability for production task Input availability for production task Availibility of forage for livestock Limit competition between production and recovery tasks
Equipment availability to recover Finance availability to recover Limit customer loss Limit label loss Emergency program 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Recovery program 9 9 9
Store products out of flood plain 9 9 9 9 9 Transportation costs
Look for association with farmers
out of floodplain 9 9 9 9 9 9
Adapt networks 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
Create refuge area for equipement,
stock and livestock 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Maintenance costs
Elevate building 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Operating costs
Grow crops less sensitive to flood 9 9 9 9
Effects that can be appraised with current methods Effects taken into account with the farm scale method Positive induced effects
Direct effects
Negative induced effects
Spatial dimension
Current models (left) only take into account land use, our model (right) also links plots / buildings to farms.
