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On the structure and form of the GDP-nuclear nexus. New perspectives and new findings

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HAL Id: halshs-00749757

https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00749757

Preprint submitted on 8 Nov 2012

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci-entific research documents, whether they are pub-lished or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers.

L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

On the structure and form of the GDP-nuclear nexus.

New perspectives and new findings

Thomas Jobert, Fatih Karanfil, Anna Tykhonenko

To cite this version:

Thomas Jobert, Fatih Karanfil, Anna Tykhonenko. On the structure and form of the GDP-nuclear nexus. New perspectives and new findings. 2012. �halshs-00749757�

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67EF7D264762F264EEFI222BF28+2C2F2ED26927C2D762D27C2F2 F22 64F2F72 7E2 D2 2 F7F2 ('"2 F2 65F7+2 47CED92 7C2 FFE76N2 65623F27E2D67!2F2264F2F727E25F7!4264556727CF727C262F2!62 .6CF22F7D6C27127C6271D2!FF6+82BC46212F2 F6DF2D422 1111111111111111111111111111111111111111 1111111111111111 82D2F6D2767227C242DE2D2FC2ED2+25D1!927C2427E2D22F7F2('"22F2D27C62 ED2621F62D4227D2267F767F265F7+2C2D66492F2ED2621267EF722D217C2 7C264F2F72DE+2 82BC27F4F722!F462D27C2'#J267EF7D2F2D7F22D2D2F22F22D2F523++22&631492O12F22 6O142 D2 7C2 67.222 !FF6+2 C2 D22 7D2 C2 7C2 D467662 D2 7C2 64762 7D2 7C2 CD2 D2

(13)

182 7CF72 7C2 62 F2 &$.72 F7D6C2 D2 4F2 52 5F7D+2 362 F2 64792 2 D7F672 7D2 7C2 DEED2 4622 F2 6F7D92 72 1D422 2 ED2 F264F72 7D2 D622F24!F2F7D6C+22222 $62A8! 2'#J2D5.4267EF76+22 2 PFF2 $D+22 72+2&+22 7.67F7+2 "2!F42

('"2 A+188B2 A+A1AA2 @+;A2 A+AAA2

7F62/D22

('"82 .A+AA182 A+AAA;2 .8+A12 A+AAB2

('"2 A+1=@12 A+A1==2 =+=A2 A+AAA2

('"82 .A+AA882 A+AAA;2 .;+=12 A+AAA2

/D2217C2$#82

$#82 .18@+882 1K+A882 .@+BK2 A+AAA2

('"2 A+1B1K2 A+A88@2 K+K@2 A+AAA2

('"82 .A+AA182 A+AAA;2 .8+AA2 A+AAB2

/D2217C2"$2 "$2 .1;+;;12 K+K81K2 .8+1A2 A+A8A2 2 BC267EF7D264762D27C2ED2242522F7F27D4E2D64E7D2F62F2 F227DF2 566D2 6CD12 7CF72 F2 247D2 2 7D4E2 D64E7D2 F262 7D2 F2 F62 2 4F2 52 D64E7D92 1CC2 2F72 7C462 F2 64677472 F7D6C2 712 7D4E2 D64E7D2 F22 4F2 52 D64E7D+2 BC62 62 2 2 17C2 7C2 252 D2 J2 F22 $C42 38A11F4+2 #2 7C2D7C2 CF292 2 7C2 ED22 7CF72 !D!62 7C2 !FF2 D2 $#82 E66D692 7C2 652 D2 7C2 D72 F66DF722 17C2 $#82 E66D62 62

D422 7D2 2 5F7!+2 BC62 6472 62 2 D7F672 17C2 7CD62 D722 2 3562 72 F+2 38A1A4+2 BC2 64762 DE2 F2 F2 F46F72 FE1D2 2F72 7CF72 2 7C2 6CD72 492 4F252D64E7D2CF62F25F7!2EF72D2$#82E66D621CF627C2F772

CF62 F2 65F72 D67!2 EF72 D2 7C2 DE+2 BC2 D422 7CF72 4F2 52 F2

1111111111111111111111111111111111111111 1111111111111111111111111111111111111111 1111111111111111111111111111111111111111 1111111111111111111111111111111111111111 111111111111 1 4E2D2F562F22F269212F722D42FF66217C22724E6+2BC2647626CD127CF72ED672 FFE7267EF762F2!26EF2CF!52F1F627C26FE265623++2β< A<α4+2

(14)

182 7C462F2F2D222452E66D6924727C22D2D720F21C2E66D62D67!2 F72 4F2 52 D64E7D+2 5D1!92 D42 0FF7D2 D2 7C2 5F7!2 652 D2 7C2$#82D72 122F622D27C2F664E7D27CF727C22272!FF22D42 ED22 F2 2 !122 F62 F2 FD77FF2 D47D2 F66DF722 17C2 4F2 52 D64E7D+2D2F!27C6277F7D27D27C2F67267D+2222222 37CD45C2D4264762D!22F267D52!22D2F2&$.72722D24F252 D64E7D927C262D247C2D727CF726CD4222D6222C+27D7C27C2F2 D75F7D2FF662F227C2'#J267EF7D62F664E27CF727C2FFE762α2F22β2 F227F2D2F2D476+2592F62726264556722 7CF72 7C2D5.42F7D6C262 7C26FE2D2F2D27C2D476926D2627C26CF2D27C247DF2DE+2BC62E627CF72 12CF!2F2DE72CDED57+25D1!92D27C2D7C2CF2922D227D2!675F7922 F2 5DD462 1F92 7C2 6FE2 F7D6C2 F72 7C2 D472 !92 D2 6CD422 D2472 7E. 662 FF662 6FF72 D2 FC2 D2 7C2 D4762 2 7C2 F+2 $D47.62 FFE762F27C22D7F22F227C226227E62D27C2('".4F252 D64E7D20462F22D2F66662+2C2D664922DD67D27D27C2F2 D75F7D2 FF662 7CF72 12 6722 2 7C62 67D92 64C2 F2 7E.662 FDFC2 FD162F2FFE7627D2!F2FD662D47692645567527C462F2DE72C7D572 F727C627E+22 D2 /F22FF2 F22 F+2 31==@492 7C2 F72 62 674F722 712 DE72 CDED572 F22 DE72 C7D57>2 FBC2 747C2 DF2 62 6DE1C2 2 71+2 BC2 FFE762 F2 D72 0F72 7C2 6FE92 472 7C2 62 6DE2 6EF72 712 7CE+2 #2 1F2D2FD152D27C26EF72627D2F664E27CF727C2FFE762F2DE2DE2F2,D72 26747D2 17C2 F2 DEED2 EF2 F22 F2 DID2 D!FF2 EF70H2 3/F22FF2 F22 F+92 1==@92+2=14+2DCF727C2EF227C62620F222ED227F227C207267D+2

(15)

1;2

(8

)6BA36835'6A8A34#64D5888

/F22FF2 72 F+2 31==@42 67EF722 6CD7.2 F22 D5.42 F67762 D2 52 2EF22 D2 FC2D2;=2 267F762D!2812F6231=@A.1==A4+2BC2D4227CF7921C267EF7D24652 DD222F7F21F62D72!F29267EF7D2 46527E.662 2F7F22FC267F72 5F!26!F2 1D526562D27C2D76+2CF5267EF7D625F!2ED2F6DF264762D2 F2 2F7F92 62 7C2 71D2 D7C2 67EF7D2 E7CD2692 D2 7C2 DD52 7C2 2F7F2 D2 D7F526FF7267EF762D2 FC2D66.67D92F2F622D207E2F664E7D62 3FE92 D66.67DF2 CDED572 F22 C7D572 D2 6D2 D764+2 BC2 6D47D2 62 D2 7C2 462 D2 F2 F2DE.D72 ED22 2 1CC2 7C2 FFE762 F2 F664E22 7D2 DE2 DE2 F2 ,D72 26747D2 17C2 F2 DEED2 EF2 F22 F2 D.ID2 D!FF2 EF70+2 &FC2 2!24F2 67EF72 62 7C462 G6C4H2 7D1F262 7C2 DD22 67EF7692DE27C62DE627C27E2G6CF5267EF7DH+2 /F22FF2 F22 542 31==K42 6722 6DE2 /D72 $FD2 !22 7D2 6455672 7CF72 7C2 7F7!2 D242 5F!2 772 67EF762 32 7C2 EF2 664F22 6642 D2 F2 2F7F2 ED26+256FD272F+231===42CF!2F6D2DE227CF7227C2F62D2F22F7F2ED2217C2 D72 C7D5792 7C2 7F6F2 FDFC2 DE62 F2 192 !2 1C2 7C2 7E22E6D2626EF+2BD2D42927C62F27C2F6D621C27C27F6F26CF52 67EF7D2 F2 2 D6222 F62 F2 F7F7!2 67EF7D2 E7CD292 F7452 D66. 67DF2C7D57227C24F25.('"2F7D6C+22 (  8 4A564A8#5768)6BA368&5D7AE5A8 J72 462 D622 7C2 6E22 DE2 D2 7C2 F7D6C2 712 4F2 52 D64E7D2F22('"24252F6D2$#82E66D62F62F2F227DF2566D>2 16 16 1 16 1 16 1 1 16 ABC ABC F DE =δ +α +β 8 +λ 8 +ε 2 2 2 2 3842

(16)

1B2

C2 7C2 FE1D2 D2 7C2 F2DE.D762 ED292 7C2 7F6F2 FDFC2 D2 &6+2 3842 F22177217C27C2DD1526F7D>22 1 1 1 1    = γ + 2 3842

1C2 1 D7F62DE 27E266921 1 2627C2EF70217C20FF7D2!FF623ABC1692

16 ABC8 2 F22 F81642 F22 γ1 6D2 D76+2 C2 7C2 7F6F2 FE1D92 7C2812 26747D2 D2γi 62 5!2 >2γ ∼1 2D3µ9Σ42 1C2 7C2 FFE762 µ2 3EF2 D2γ 492 Σ 221 3!FF2 D2 γ 42 F221 8 1 σ 2 3624F2 !FF42 F2 4D1+2 BCF72 62 1C2 6DE2 F664E7D62 CF!2 7D2 2 EF22 D2 812 6F7D2 D2 7C62 FFE76+2 BC2 12 F2 2!27C28651226747D2D27C2FFE762γ +2#27C2D7C2CF2922 µ 92 Σ 2F221 2 i σ 2F2F2D1927C28651226747D2D2γ 62DEF2F22F4F722>221 2 3 4 5 6 7 Σ + ′ 2 3 4 5 6 7 Σ + ′ = − − − R Q Q Q 1 Q Q 1 Q 1 8 1 1 8 σ γ µ σ γ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1     22 2 3;42 1C2 γR1 2 62 7C2 #J2 67EF7D2 D2 γ +2 BC2 86512 26747D2 EF2 D21 γ F22 7621 !FF2F26CD122&66+23B42F223K4267!+22

1

= = D 1 1 D 1 Q 1 Q γ µ 2 2 2 2 2 2 3B42 1 1 8 Q Q 1 QS T − − 2 3 4 5 6 7 Σ + ′ = 1 1 1 1    σ γ 2 2 2 2 2 3K42 2 2 5F92Σ 2 F22 8 1 σ 2 F2 4D12 FFE7692 D2 262 7D2 62 D62 D2 7CE+2 D2 7C62 4D692 E7C2 31=@842 64556722 4652 7C2 ED22 D2 7C2 ,D72 D67D2 26747D25!227C2DD15264F7D6>2 23 4 56 7 − ′ − + + + = 3 Q4 3 Q4 8 1 Q8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1      ς ς λ γ γ σ 222 2 2 3@42

(17)

1K2 F222 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 ′ − − + + − − = Σ

1

= D 1 1 1    1 Q4 Q Q43 Q 3 8 1 Q γ µ γ µ δ 2 2 2 22222222223A42 1C2 7C2 FFE762 ς 921 λ 921 δ 2 F22 2 F62 DE2 7C2 6F7D2 D2 7C2 D2 26747D6+2/DD!92E7C231=@842DD6227C2FD0EF7D2D27C62FFE762 2 67752ς1 =A92δ =12 F222 F62 F2 2F5DF2 EF702 17C2 6EF2 D67!2 762 3+5+92 A+AA14+2722D526D927C267EF7D627F27C2DD152DE6>2 23 4 56 7 − ′ − + = 3 Q4 3 Q4 8 1 Q8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1      γ γ σ 2 2 2 2 2 3=42 2 3 4 5 6 7 ′ − − + − − = Σ

1

= D 1 1 1    1 Q4 Q Q43 Q 3 1 1 Q γ µ γ µ 2 2 2 2 2 31A42 2 3 4 5 6 7 Σ + ′ 2 3 4 5 6 7 Σ + ′ = − − − Q Q R Q 1 Q Q 1 Q 8 1 1 1 8 γ µ σ σ γ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1     2 2 2 31142 F2222

1

= = D 1 1 D 1 Q 1 Q γ µ 22 2 2 2 2 31842 1 1 8 Q Q 1 QS T − − 2 3 4 5 6 7 Σ + ′ = 1 1 1 1    σ γ 2 2 2 2 31842 BC2 &66+2 3=.1842 6CD422 2 6D!22 7F7!92 17C2 7C2 7F2 7F7D2 4652 7C2 #J2 67EF7D2 γR 2 7D2 DE4721 µ 92Q ΣQ2 F22 8 Q1 σ +2 BC2 6D22 7F7D2 62 F622 D2 7C2

EF2 7F7!2 7F6U2 67EF7D2 γi*+2 BC2 7C22 F22 7C2 DD152 7F7D62 F2

27F27D27C26D22D+2BC2EF27F6U267EF7D21F62DD6222/F22FF272 F+231==@4+2BC2D22217C27C2E7CU6267EF7D26227C2DE47F7D2D27C2 FFE762σ Q812F2 QΣ 927CF7269212CF!>2

(18)

1@2 Q4 3 Q4 3 1 Q81 1 1 1 1 1 1   γ γ σ − ′ − − = 2 2 2 2 31;42 2 3 4 5 6 7 ′ − − + − = Σ

1

= D 1 1 1  D 1 Q4 Q Q43 Q 3 1 1 Q γ µ γ µ 22 2 2 2 31B42 C2 1CF72 DD1692 12 672 D42 64762 DE2 F52 7C62 D242 7D2 D42 2 ED225!22&6+2384+2 ( ! 8 #57685A34388 36227C2'#J2FE1D921267EF7227C26FF72ED2692D21CC27C2672627C2 F62ED2927C26D2242622F7F2$#82E66D62F62F2F227DF2566D92F22

7C2 7C22 42622 F7F2 7D4E2 D64E7D+2BC2 7F7!2 7F6F2 67EF7D2 64762D27C2F62ED22F2672223202323BF23+14+2BC62647621D422 FD12 462 7D2 D422 1C7C2 4F2 52 D64E7D2 CF62 F2 !722 .72 F7D6C2 17C2 672 7D2 DDE2 5D17C92 F22 7C62 17CD472 7C2 62 D2 F2 F227DF2 !FF+2 7F622 D2 D7C2 7C2 67EF722 D762 F22 7C2 7.67F76762 D7222BF23+12F227C2F66F7D2D2D47625!22BF21927C25D462D2 D4762 F2 2 267546C2+2 #2 5D42 D7F62 D4762 1C2 7C2 62 D2 F7D6C2 712 4F2 52 D64E7D2 F22 DDE2 5D17C2 33%(92 7%M92 7J(925 92J'923%4+2BC62D4762F2F26EF2D2462D24F25+2C27C2 F5672 5D42 D7F52 182 D47692 F2 !722 .6CF22 F7D6C2 62 672 37&J92$'92C92%392'& 92C'92"92&"92D&92DM92(7%92 34+2D7C27C2D207D2 D2 D47C2 DF92 F2 F!F52 D2 C5C2 D2462 D2 4F2 52 F2 7D2 7C62 5D4+2 F927C2F6725D42D7F627C2D4762D21CC24F25262F2F652 F247D2D2('"23$M&92"92#%4+2BC6264722F762 7CF727C2CD2D2F2 F2 47DF2 DE2 67EF722 2 !D462 674262 F2 2 ,46722 D2 D2 7C62 7C2 D476+2

(19)

1A2

J72 462 D12 D622 7C2 ED22 4252 F2 F227DF2 !FF>2 2 F7F2 $#82

E66D6+;2 BC2 67EF7D2 64762 F2 5!2 2 BF2 82 F22 F622 D2 7C2 67EF722

D7692 D4762 F2 5D422 2 BF2 ;2FD252 7D2 7C2 47DF2 DE2 D2 7C2 4F25.('"2046+22

$62A8( 2"FFE7267EF762DE27C2EF27F7!27F6U267EF7D+2

Variables Country Parameters T-Stat Country Parameters T-Stat Country Parameters T-Stat

Const -0,0301 -0,20 -33,5832 -10,23 -0,0987 -0,30

GDP ARG 0,0107 0,15 FRA 2,5764 11,27 AFR -0,0332 -0,38

GDP2 -0,0037 -0,54 -0,0379 -9,70 -0,0073 -1,02

CO2 65,9672 1,28 -491,8960 -7,18 74,7359 1,47

Const -4,8452 -3,36 -14,5097 -8,35 -0,8392 -6,97

GDP BEL 0,4695 8,51 DEU 0,9187 9,75 KOR 0,4614 7,76

GDP2 -0,0045 -7,32 -0,0141 -8,86 -0,0062 -4,28 CO2 -200,5245 -2,90 -150,0785 -2,73 -245,0099 -4,23 Const -0,2023 -1,32 1,3469 2,69 -6,6196 -9,63 GDP BRZ 0,0406 0,57 HUN 0,4957 4,78 ESP 0,7736 11,51 GDP2 -0,0017 -0,24 -0,0251 -4,21 -0,0160 -9,84 CO2 49,7656 1,79 -413,9142 -7,83 -158,6562 -3,39 Const 2,6176 8,30 -0,0087 -3,45 -20,5875 -3,79 GDP BLG 0,2050 2,75 IND 0,0452 2,73 SWE 1,7843 5,37 GDP2 -0,0059 -0,66 -0,0237 -2,90 -0,0253 -5,17 CO2 -174,7255 -5,40 2,8704 0,36 -381,3168 -4,23 Const -8,6293 -2,58 -5,3083 -2,97 -13,4942 -3,27 GDP CND 1,0238 4,26 JPN 0,3703 3,00 SWZ 0,6080 3,61 GDP2 -0,0160 -4,02 -0,0046 -2,18 -0,0056 -3,12 CO2 -268,3311 -3,20 29,7398 0,45 137,0582 1,71 Const -0,1780 -0,22 0,4208 2,43 -5,1505 -5,59 GDP CZE 0,2678 2,79 NLD -0,0068 -0,54 GBR 0,4806 10,57 GDP2 -0,0004 -0,09 0,0001 0,56 -0,0078 -10,23 CO2 -94,5343 -2,59 -4,4018 -0,48 -75,6788 -2,32 Const -3,3012 -1,79 -0,0220 -5,09 -8,8586 -9,47 GDP FIN 0,5465 4,56 PKS 0,1148 5,27 USA 0,6041 11,12 GDP2 -0,0075 -3,93 -0,0063 -0,67 -0,0076 -9,67 CO2 -198,4047 -3,45 -52,6108 -3,79 -15,0434 -0,44 2 D2 672 EF2 7CF72 7D2452 $#82 E66D62 6757C62 7C2 2 712 4F2 52F22('"92627C62EF626DE2!D46265F72('"2D762DE2 67F767F2 65F7>2 71D2 D4762 37J(2 F22 5 42 F2 D12 D422 7D2 CF!2 F2 1111111111111111111111111111111111111111 1111111111111111

;2 DC2 7D4E2 D64E7D2 1F62 4622 67F22 D2 $#82 E66D692 12 D422 6EF2 64762 7D2 7CD62

(20)

1=2

F7D6C2 712 4F2 52 F22 ('"2 3!722 .6CF22 F22 F2 F7D6C92 67!4+2 D47C2 DF92 1CC2 1F62 7C2 D2 07D2 D2 7C2 F5672 D2462 D2 4F2 52 7CF72 2D62 D72 D52 7D2 7C2 5D42 D2 D4762 CF!52 F2 !722 .6CF22 F7D6C92 ,D22 D12 7D2 7C62 5D4+2 BC62 64762 D2 D42 2562 DE2 7C2 F62 ED22 2F752 7C2 0672 D2 F2 &$.72 F7D6C2 D2 4F2 52 D64E7D+2 7F462 D72 D2 D2 7C2 182 D47692 7CF72 F2 D422 7D2 CF!2 7C62 F7D6C92 7C2 &$2 CD7C662 CD262 7492 472 F6D2 12 CF!2 71D2 D7C2 D476235 2F22 #%4264D7527C2!22D2F2!62 .6CF22 F7D6C2 7127C6271D2!FF6+22 $62A8* 24EEF27F2D27C267EF72247DF2DE6+2 +7A658AA5B,-!8A#33D38A.38 2 D2F7D6C2 5F7!2 D2F7D6C2 326153 3 3%(927%M92J'923%2 2 JF2 326153 3 2 7J(92$M&92"2 C!72. 26CF22  326153 C'92"92DM92 32 7&J922$'92C92%392'& 92 5 92#%92&"92D&92(7%2 +7A658 AA5B, /"&8 A.38 8 3 2 2 2 BD2 D422 7C62 67D92 DE2 BF62 12 F22 ;92 7C2 DD152 64762 F2 2 2F1+2 D2 22 7CF72 D72 !F462 !F2 122 1CC2 FD162 462 7D2 272 D42 5D462 D2 D476>2 3142 BC2 672 5D42 D2 D4762 D66762 D2 7CD62 D2 1CC2 7C2 62 D2 F7D6C2 7C2 712 4F2 52 D64E7D2 F22 ('"2 D2 712 $#82 E66D62F224F252D64E7D+2BC2267546C52CFF7672D27C2D42 D476227C626725D42 62 7CF727C2F26EF2D2462D24F252F227CF72 7C26CF2D24F2D1227D7F252D64E7D262F6D26EF2 362BF214+23842 745FF92 $IC2 %42 F22 "F67F2 D677472 FD7C2 5D42 D2 D4762 CF!52 F2

(21)

8A2 F2 4F.('"2 0462 F22 F2 5F7!2 $#82 FFE7+2 3842 D2 FD7C2 5D42 D2 D47623C'92"92DM2F22 3427C2FFE7267EF7622F72F265F72!722 .6CF22 F7D6C2 712 4F2 52 D64E7D2 F22 ('"92 1C2 $#82 E66D62CF!2D2 65F7272D24F252D64E7D+23;42F92D27C2 F56725D4231A2D4764927C26476264556727C20672D2F2!722 24!2D2 4F252D64E7D2F22F25F7!2EF72D2$#82E66D62D24F2D1+2 C27C2F267D92ED227F2277F7D2D27C622562F2264662+2

*8

"3733D8D84A8E386E87D7E85A#65'38

C2 D7F672 7D2 7C2 !D462 7F7492 7C62 F2 !675F722 7C2 4F2 52 .2 DDE2 5D17C2 0462 2 D6252 272 ED22 6F7D62 7CF72 FD12 D2 F2 4!F2 F7D6C2 FED52 7C62 71D2 !FF6+2 /D2 6F92 7C2 &$2 CD7C662 1F62 0FE22 D2 4F2 52 D64E7D+2 DC2 2D52 6D92 D66. 67DF2 C7D572 1F62 F6D2 FD4722 D2 2 7C2 FF6692 1CC2 D6774762 FD7C2ED7F72F72D27C2D747D2D27C626742+2BC20672D2F2!722 . 6CF22 F7D6C2 712 4F2 52 D64E7D2 F22 DE2 64556762 7CF72 4F2525D62DE252F2DEF25DD223++2762D64E7D2F662F62DE2 66427D252F2D25DD223++2762D64E7D22F662F62DE2F664+2362 2264662227C27D247D267D92FD2527D27C2F66F277F7D2D2 7C2 &$2 CD7C6692 D64E2 62 422 F2 !DE7F2 DED72 F22 7C2F62D21F7C2F2ED!27C224F7D2D22!24F6921CC9227492F662 !DE7F2 F1F662 F22 2EF22 D2 F2 5DD262 3#67EF2 F22 "F92 1=A@4+2 37ED6C2 D47D2 F4622 2 D662 42 DE467D2 F2 2 F7422 ED672 2 7C2 $#82 E66D62 2F7F92 !7C6692 7C2 62 D2 72 EF642 7CF72 62 FF2 D2

(22)

812 D5F27D2 F664E27CF724F2 525F7D22 F2D4722262 D27C2F72D2 762D27D2F727C262D24F2D12F76227C25D62F22D47D2 662F66DF72217C27CE+2C27C26FE267!924F252D64E7D2F22 !122 F62 F2 D02 D2 FD77FF2 4F2 D47D92 62 F62 792 D2 EFD2 2F7F2 CF!2 2 46C22 D2 7C2 07F2 762 D2 4F2 D1+2 BC4692 72 6E62 F6DF2 7D2 072F2!722 .6CF22F7D6C22F7527CF72F2C5C2!2D21F7C21D422 F227D2F2F62D242D2FD4727C26472D24F2F7692EFF5E72 D24F2D12F221F67226D6F92F222D66492F227D2F22F6522EF22 D24F2D1+22 #2 7C2 D7C2 CF292 2 7C2 06752 7F742 3D2 0FE92 3562 72 F+2 8A1A492 7C2 67EF722 D762 D2 $#82 E66D62 F2 7722 F62 7C2 F6772 D2 $#82 E66D62 D2 4F2 52 D64E7D+2 !7C6692 2 FD2F2 17C2 7C2 FD77FF2 D47D2 CD7C6692 F2 5F7!2 652 D2 7C2 D72 F66DF722 17C2 $#82

E66D62 2F7692 2 7C2 FE1D2 D2 D42 FDFC92 7CF72 1C2 $#82 E66D62

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(23)

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(24)

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(25)

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(26)

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(27)

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(28)

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(29)

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(30)

8=2 1AE.81 8

$62A81 88

Variables Country Parameters T-Stat Country Parameters T-Stat Country Parameters T-Stat

Const 0,0735 0,44 -43,4856 -8,77 0,3590 1,28

GDP ARG 0,0407 0,58 FRA 3,0023 8,75 AFR -0,0057 -0,06

GDP2 -0,0035 -0,47 -0,0446 -7,61 -0,0045 -0,54

Const -7,1206 -5,15 -11,9786 -7,32 -0,7607 -5,03

GDP BEL 0,4559 7,03 DEU 0,9070 7,90 KOR 0,2319 8,01 GDP2 -0,0044 -6,15 -0,0146 -7,39 -0,0017 -1,38 Const -0,3114 -2,01 -0,1868 -0,25 -7,8472 -11,32 GDP BRZ 0,1012 1,49 HUN 0,1558 1,11 ESP 0,8364 12,10 GDP2 -0,0052 -0,69 -0,0010 -0,14 -0,0185 -11,14 Const 1,3283 4,13 -0,0073 -2,99 -27,6374 -4,79 GDP BLG 0,1652 1,50 IND 0,0450 5,28 SWE 2,0069 5,79 GDP2 0,0003 0,04 -0,0205 -2,91 -0,0280 -5,50 Const -14,1985 -3,30 -5,1556 -2,81 -10,4876 -2,83 GDP CND 1,1154 3,78 JPN 0,3733 2,89 SWZ 0,5215 3,24 GDP2 -0,0181 -3,65 -0,0046 -2,07 -0,0048 -2,74 Const -2,4672 -3,37 0,4226 2,47 -6,0497 -9,08 GDP CZE 0,4300 3,16 NLD -0,0102 -0,95 GBR 0,4853 10,58 GDP2 -0,0043 -0,68 0,0001 0,87 -0,0077 -10,16 Const -5,4669 -2,61 -0,0184 -4,00 -9,0219 -10,67 GDP FIN 0,5610 4,03 PKS 0,0447 3,77 USA 0,5966 11,78 GDP2 -0,0079 -3,52 -0,0003 -0,04 -0,0075 -10,18 2

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