HAL Id: hal-02922100
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02922100
Preprint submitted on 25 Aug 2020
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Voluntary Self-Testing Framework as an Effective Early Warning Against Covid-19 Resurgence
Serge Dolgikh
To cite this version:
Serge Dolgikh. Voluntary Self-Testing Framework as an Effective Early Warning Against Covid-19 Resurgence. 2020. �hal-02922100�
Warning Against Covid-19 Resurgence
Serge Dolgikh1[0000-0001-5929-8954]
Dept. of Information Technology, National Aviation University, Kyiv
Abstract. An effective and cost-efficient population-wide framework based on available and easy-to-use self-administered test is proposed with a potential to significantly improve the accuracy and timing of monitoring of Covid-19 epi- demiological situation. Easy in development and introduction, such a frame- work can be an effective instrument in development of sustainable and effective epidemics control policies for Covid-19 as well as possible future epidemics.
Keywords: Epidemiology, Risk management
Self-Testing in Epidemiological Monitoring
Self-testing as an effective instrument of monitoring Covid-19 situation has been identified as one of priorities in a sustainable and effective management of the pan- demics [1]. Recently a number of reports [2,3] were published pointing at a possibility of practical development and introduction of such products. Here we outline an ap- proach and a framework whereby self-testing products as and when they become available, can be integrated into an effective and cost-efficient population-wide moni- toring framework of the current epidemics situation with a potential to significantly improve the accuracy, warning and the response time of the policy development and effective introduction.
1 Voluntary Integrated Self-Testing Framework (VIST)
1.1 Individual Self-Test
The basis of the framework is a readily available and easy-to-use self-testing utility (kit) that can be administered by an average individual within reasonable timeframe.
The characteristics essential for successful implementation, introduction and popula- tion-wide uptake include:
- High accuracy of the test result;
- Safety in application;
- Ease in application;
- Reasonable time to result;
- Ease in interpretation of the result;
- Ease in reporting and accessing necessary information;
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- Safety in disposal, if applicable.
For example, in one of possible implementation of such a test based on saliva test developed in University of Illinois [2], a patient could spit into a test appliance that can be disposable or multi-use, and interpret the result for example, by a color code within reasonable development time.
1.2 Voluntary Reporting
The results of individual tests are fed into a current view (a snapshot) of the epidemio- logical situation via an online and mobile reporting utility (web or mobile app).
Several simple rules and principles can make the uptake and participation of the population more effective, such as:
- Clear explanation of aims and operation of the reporting mechanism - Clear explanation of individual benefits and those to the society - Assured anonymity of reporting as a key principle
- Simplicity and intuitiveness in use
Population is invited and encouraged to participate in the self-testing program vol- untarily with a number of essential benefits to the users, as well as the society as a whole.
An early and accurate early detection can improve the outcome for the infected, and provide reassurance to those with the negative results. Additionally, in the case of a positive test, the user can be offered an immediate access to up-to-date information, support resources, advice, monitoring of condition and if necessary, medical assis- tance and access to treatment.
1.3 Integrated Monitoring Framework
The information received from individual reports is processed automatically to pro- vide the current view of the epidemiological situation. In this way it can operate as an instant population-scale “X-ray” of the epidemiological situation identifying and dis- playing the current condition of the epidemics in the society long before it would manifest itself in the patient reports and hospitalizations.
The current results can be posted online publicly to achieve multiple aims: to pro- vide the society with an accurate view of the current epidemiological situation; to demonstrate an actual and practical result of the collective effort in controlling the epidemics; as a feedback for evaluation of current management policies; and as an early warning to the society in case of the resurgence.
Fig.1 Voluntary integrated voluntary self-testing framework
Such a direct information feedback to the society can result in more trust and there- fore, effective response compared to obscure, ad hoc and sometimes difficult to un- derstand policy rationales that could and have met misunderstanding and resistance previously.
2 Advantages and Effect
The proposed voluntary self-reporting framework, subject to identified dependencies, would be cost-efficient, highly flexible and would provide superior coverage and response time compared to currently used dedicated test facilities. It will provide im- portant benefits for the users and the society as a whole, such as:
- An effective population-wide current and accurate monitoring tool, a society- scale epidemiological “X-ray”;
- An accurate and current source of information for effective policy develop- ment, evaluation and verification of existing policies;
- A source of information about epidemiological situation that can be trusted by the population, providing a background and justification for epidemics control policy resulting in higher and quicker effect
- An essential data source for research and development of effective treat- ments and epidemics monitoring and control instruments.
Depending on the current situation, such a framework can be easily switched into any of the operational modes, such as sustained monitoring, higher attention mode, geographic or demographics focus and so on by issuing corresponding requests to the users for voluntary following up.
For example, by asking users to perform a weekly test, based on certain criteria, one can have a daily, accurate jurisdiction-scale epidemiological snapshot weeks be- fore it would manifest itself in the consequences as symptom reports and hospitaliza- tions. Such an addition would of course offer numerous advantages compared with the status quo not in the least, in accurate assessment of effectiveness of the policies and development of new and improved ones.
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2.1 Economy Effect
Evidently, the success of self-testing reporting strongly depends on sufficiency and availability of test kits for regular sustained monitoring. It needs to be said that while the development of self-testing infrastructure may not be low cost, its development itself can be an opportunity or leverage to spur the economic development that may have a wider effect on the society. For example, new enterprise and jobs can be creat- ed in massive production and distribution of tests whereas the data reported would be available for research and policy improvements indefinitely.
In such an approach, the development, delivery and maintenance of self-testing framework would not only achieve the immediate goal of a sustained reduction in infection risks, but also provide and important stimulus for the economy in the form of a platform for employment and growth at the time when some or many of the tradi- tional industries are negatively impacted.
3 Conclusions
It can be concluded that the essential dependencies for a wide-reach voluntary self- testing framework are either in place or can be expected to be in place within reason- able time. In the view of clear advantages such an instrument would provide, invest- ment of efforts and resources into a practical implementation of a self-testing moni- toring framework appears to be well justified.
In sustained management of the epidemics availability of the current and accurate information about the condition becomes a top priority in the development of effec- tive policy response. The proposed framework has a potential of becoming an essen- tial information tool providing accurate and current information to the population, researchers and policy makers. With the advantages of flexibility, ubiquitous cover- age and cost efficiency it can be effective in management of Covid-19 and easily extendable in case of possible future challenges of the kind.
References
1. European Commission Guidelines on Testing https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/coronavirus- commission-issues-guidelines-testing, April 2020.
2. New rapid saliva test for Covid-19 enables fast and frequent testing on a large scale, https://scitechdaily.com/new-rapid-saliva-test-for-covid-19-enables-fast-and-frequent- testing-on-a-large-scale/amp/ University of Illinois at Urbana-Campaign, 20.08.2020.
3. New rapid test kit to detect Covid-19 soon to be available in EU.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/all/news/new-rapid-test-kit-to-detect-covid-19-soon- available-in-eu/ Euractiv, 16.03.2020.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52399869.
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https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/659350.html.
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11. What the cruise-ship outbreaks reveal about COVID-19: Nature, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00885-w
12. Dolgikh, S. Smart-Covid: Intelligent solutions for higher risk environments, HAL, hal- 02915459, August, 2020.
