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Intensity gap, sectors' dynamics, specialisation and growth

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Evolution of EU corporate R&D in the global economy:

Intensity gap, sectors' dynamics, specialisation and growth

Pietro Moncada-Paternò-Castello

Candidate to PhD in Economics and Management Sciences - at Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management - Université Líbre de Bruxelles (ULB)

20 October 20217

Table of Contents

Introduction ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 1. Background: the economic and policy context ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 2. Motivations and problems addressed ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3. Aim, objectives and research questions ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4. Referred literature and the PhD Thesis's contribution ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 5. Setting the Thesis vs other published papers authored by the PhD candidate ...Error! Bookmark not defined.

6. Methodological approach... Error! Bookmark not defined. 7. A snapshot of the anticipated results obtained ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 8. "Red-line" of the Thesis ... Error! Bookmark not defined. References ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

Essay #1. Survey of corporate R&D intensity decomposition studies: theoretical and empirical issues ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Abstract ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 1. Introduction ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 2. Literature review: theoretical and methodological frameworks — empirical results ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.1. Theoretical framework of the determinants of corporate R&D intensity .... Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.2. Concept and purpose of decomposing corporate R&D intensity .. Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.3 Decomposition of corporate R&D intensity: empirical findings ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3. Discussion ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.1 What the literature says on reasons for contrasting studies' results /their impact ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

3.2 Meta-analysis of the business R&D decomposition studies under inspection Error! Bookmark not defined.

3.3 Hints on data and methodology to be used, limitations and result's interpretation ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

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References ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Appendix ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

Essay #2. EU corporate R&D intensity gap: What has changed over the last decade? ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Abstract ... 61 1. Introduction ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 2. Related literature ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.1 Relevance of corporate R&D investment and countries' R&D intensity differences ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.2 Structural versus intrinsic effects in R&D intensity ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.3 Direction and magnitude of the R&D intensity gap between countries ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.4. Dispersion versus concentration of corporate R&D investment ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3. Data and samples selected for the analysis ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.1 Data ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.2 Datasets ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.3 Main variables and caveat ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.4 Descriptive statistics ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4. Decomposition of corporate R&D intensity ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.1 Methodological approach ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.2 Applying the decomposition to data of three EU R&D Scoreboard editions .... Error! Bookmark not defined.

5. A further analysis of the EU vs US R&D intensity gap .. Error! Bookmark not defined. 5.1. Industrial sectors key in EU vs US aggregate structural R&D intensity difference ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

5.2. EU countries relevant for the aggregate EU structural R&D intensity result .. Error! Bookmark not defined.

5.3. EU and US firms key for the intrinsic R&D effects in the aggregated R&D intensity ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

6. Distribution of R&D across firms, sectors and countries Error! Bookmark not defined. 7. Summary and conclusions ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 6.1 Main research findings ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 6.2 Concluding remarks... Error! Bookmark not defined. Bibliography ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Appendix ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

A.1 - Caveats of the EU R&D Scoreboard data ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

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Essay #3. Sector dynamics, specialisation and R&D growth of top innovators in the global economy ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Abstract ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 1. Introduction ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 2. Literature ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.1 Technical change, industrial dynamics and specialisation for competitiveness and growth ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 2.2 Sectoral changes, sector specialisation and differences in country's private R&D ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

2.3 Firm's R&D investment performance across sectors ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3. Data ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4. Empirical analysis ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.1 Sectoral R&D changes ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.2 R&D sector specialisation of countries/world regions ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.3 Technological specialisation of countries/regions ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.4 Country differences in private R&D investment capacity ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 4.5 R&D investment growth performance of firms across sectors . Error! Bookmark not defined. 5. Conclusions ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Bibliography ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Appendix ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Summary of output ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

1. Main results ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 2. Conclusions and policy implications ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3. Limitations and avenues for further research ... Error! Bookmark not defined. References ... Error! Bookmark not defined.

Table of Figures

Essay #1. Survey of corporate R&D intensity decomposition studies: theoretical and empirical issues

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Figure 7. Business R&D intensity in selected OECD countries adjusted and unadjusted for

industrial structure, and the resulting changes in ranking positions by R&D intensity ... 37

Figure 8. Annual nominal growth rates of corporate R&D investment and sales 2006-13 .... 40

Essay #2. EU corporate R&D intensity gap: What has changed over the last decade? Figure 1. R&D investment in selected years, by countries/world regions and R&D-intensity sector group (€ millions) ... 73

Figure 2. Net sales in selected years, by countries/world regions and R&D-intensity sector group ... 73

Figure 3. R&D intensity in selected years by group of countries ... 74

Figure 4. EU vs US R&D intensity gap (decomposed) in selected sectors (2005, 2009 and 2013) ... 78

Figure 5. R&D investment size of EU and US firms and their distribution by R&D intensity and net sales in selected sectors in 2013 ... 87

Figure 6. Triangular Kernel density distribution of the difference between R&D intensity of the firms and the average R&D intensity of the Software and Computer Service sector, EU and US (2013) ... 88

Figure 7. Δ of firm' average R&D intensity and share on net sales in the Software and Computer Service sector, EU and US (2013) ... 88

Figure 8. Distribution of the firm impact INDEX on the R&D intensity by their R&D intensity ranking in Software and Computer Service sector, EU and US (2013) ... 89

Figure 9. Cumulative average R&D intensity of the samples of EU R&D Scoreboard companies in 2005, 2009, 2013 by country/region (%) ... 92

Figure 10. The 10 sectors with the highest global corporate R&D investment concentration by country/region (2005, 2009, 2013) ... 94

Figure A-1. Global R&D investment and net sales annual growth rates – longitudinal dataset 2005-2013 ... 108

Essay #3. Sector dynamics, specialisation and R&D growth of top innovators in the global economy Figure 1. Average annual changes of R&D across sectors by economic area: investments, number of companies, 2006-2013 and 2009-2013 ... 122

Figure 2. Shares by economic area: R&D investment and number of firms, 2005-13 ... 133

Figure 3. Elasticity of capital intensity and R&D intensity by R&D growth/age groups... 138

Figure 4.Average year of sectors (by top R&D firms) and their variation ... 139

Table of Tables

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Table 1. Summary of description of data sources most frequently used in EU corporate R&D intensity decomposition ... 32 Table 2. Activities of foreign affiliates in the USA (2006) ... 35 Table 3. EU vs US business R&D intensity of the ICT sectors using GDP and Value Added (2005) ... 38 Table 4. Synopsis (meta-information) of sixteen empirical studies on business /corporate R&D intensity decomposition... 42 Table 5. Mapping methodological approach, limitations and hints for results' interpretation of business R&D intensity decomposition using data based on national statistics and EU R&D Scoreboard data ... 44 Table A1. Overview of main objectives, equations and findings of 16 recent studies on private R&D intensity decomposition ... 54 Essay #2 EU corporate R&D intensity gap: What has changed over the last decade?

Table 1. R&D intensity (as gross domestic expenditure on R&D) by economic sector in the EU-28 and competing economies in 2008 and 2013 – data as % of GDP.... Error! Bookmark not defined.

Table 2. R&D investment and net sales by R&D intensity sector as a proportion of total R&D investment by EU R&D Scoreboard firms in 2005, 2009 and 2013 and by

country/region ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 3.Decomposition of R&D intensities in selected countries/regions using the EU sample for comparison (2005, 2009 and 2013) ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 4. EU to US ratio of average R&D intensity and number of firms by sectors (ICB-4) within high and medium-high R&D-intensity-sector groups in 2005, 2009 and 2013 ....Error! Bookmark not defined.

Table 5. EU countries: R&D intensity, shares of R&D, net sales and number of firms; 2005-2013... Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 6. The R&D sector composition of UK in 2013 ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 7. Main EU countries within four selected sectors in 2013: R&D intensity, share of R&D and share of net sales ... Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 8. Key EU and US firms for the intrinsic R&D effects in the aggregated R&D intensity results in selected sectors (at ICB-3 digits level of classification) in 2005-2013 ...Error! Bookmark not defined.

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Table A-5. Decomposition of different R&D intensities ratios in EU and US using the EU sample for comparison (2009) ... 111

Essay #3. Sector dynamics, specialisation and R&D growth of top innovators in the global economy

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